Magic Number Thread v2009

[Rapsobsessed7]

well this is what i think

Dallas: Entertaining possible win, dirk called marion toughest defender
Houston: Won before running game should work, win
Miami: Tough game, but i think win baring a wade take over
Utah: Loss
Philly: Win
Detroit Loss

so going 4-2 would be tough and we could only lose 3 more games i dont think its impossible to go 4-2. I suspect a loss against the magic later in the season, atlanta and one of the new york games. So its going to be very hard but i believe man, honestly tanking doesnt do anything id rather see this team get blown out in the playoffs and atleast watch something fun than see them be a lottery bound team and knowing the season is over

[Tom Baker]

well this is what i think

Dallas: Entertaining possible win, dirk called marion toughest defender
Houston: Won before running game should work, win
Miami: Tough game, but i think win baring a wade take over
Utah: Loss
Philly: Win
Detroit Loss

so going 4-2 would be tough and we could only lose 3 more games i dont think its impossible to go 4-2. I suspect a loss against the magic later in the season, atlanta and one of the new york games. So its going to be very hard but i believe man, honestly tanking doesnt do anything id rather see this team get blown out in the playoffs and atleast watch something fun than see them be a lottery bound team and knowing the season is over

I think you're being optimistic about the next 6 games. The Raptors have shown nothing to prove they can go 4-2. They've shown enough glimmer of hope for my 2-4 thought to be possible, but hey! I hope you're right.

I'd love for the Raptors to make the playoffs, but they're just not playing like a team that can finish with a 17-5 kick.

Note: I just woke up. I'm hoping to update the Magic Numbers in about (or aboot or you hard-core Canadians) an hour.

EDIT: I know our Magic Number will have dropped because the #8 team, Milwaukee, won... not surprising since they played the Wiz. But Chicago beat Houston! And there's been a whole lot of new movement among the lottery teams, including Charlotte leap-frogging both New York and Indiana to take the 11th spot. Heck, we had passed Charlotte recently (and briefly) and they were stuck in the 14th spot.

I'd love to see the Raptors climb 3 spots like that.

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 28th February 2009:

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For teams in bold, the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot (or whatever spot is indicated). For the teams in regular text, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs (or whatever spot is indicated).

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1.

Eastern Conference:

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Boston 3
Cleveland 5
Orlando 7
Atlanta 17
Miami 19
Philadelphia 21
Detroit 22
Milwaukee 21
Chicago 21
New Jersey 22
Charlotte 19
Indiana 18
New York 19
Toronto 17
Washington 9

At least 7th seed

Boston 3
Cleveland 5
Orlando 7
Atlanta 17
Miami 19
Philadelphia 21
Detroit 22
Milwaukee 22
Chicago 22
New Jersey 23
Charlotte 20
Indiana 19
New York 20
Toronto 18
Washington 10

At least 6th seed

Boston 7
Cleveland 9
Orlando 11
Atlanta 21
Miami 23
Philadelphia 25
Detroit 25
Milwaukee 21
Chicago 21
New Jersey 22
Charlotte 19
Indiana 18
New York 19
Toronto 17
Washington 9

At least 5th seed

Boston 7
Cleveland 9
Orlando 11
Atlanta 21
Miami 23
Philadelphia 23
Detroit 23
Milwaukee 19
Chicago 19
New Jersey 20
Charlotte 17
Indiana 16
New York 17
Toronto 15
Washington 7

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Boston 9
Cleveland 11
Orlando 13
Atlanta 23
Miami 23
Philadelphia 21
Detroit 21
Milwaukee 17
Chicago 17
New Jersey 18
Charlotte 15
Indiana 14
New York 15
Toronto 13
Washington 5

At least 3rd seed

Boston 11
Cleveland 13
Orlando 15
Atlanta 15
Miami 13
Philadelphia 11
Detroit 11
Milwaukee 7
Chicago 7
New Jersey 8
Charlotte 5
Indiana 4
New York 5
Toronto 3

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Boston 20
Cleveland 22
Orlando 22
Atlanta 13
Miami 11
Philadelphia 9
Detroit 9
Milwaukee 5
Chicago 5
New Jersey 6
Charlotte 3
Indiana 2
New York 3
Toronto 1

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Boston 24
Cleveland 24
Orlando 20
Atlanta 11
Miami 9
Philadelphia 7
Detroit 7
Milwaukee 3
Chicago 3
New Jersey 4
Charlotte 1
New York 1

Western Conference

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
Denver 19
Houston 21
Portland 22
New Orleans 23
Utah 22
Dallas 23
Phoenix 23
Golden State 10
Minnesota 8
Memphis 5
Clippers 3
OKC Sterns 3
Sacto 0 (eliminated... you knew it was coming)

At least 7th seed

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Denver 21
Houston 23
Portland 24
New Orleans 25
Utah 24
Dallas 24
Phoenix 22
Golden State 9
Minnesota 7
Memphis 4
Clippers 2
OKC Sterns 2
Sacto 0 (eliminated... you knew it was coming)

At least 6th seed

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Denver 21
Houston 23
Portland 24
New Orleans 25
Utah 25
Dallas 25
Phoenix 23
Golden State 10
Minnesota 8
Memphis 5
Clippers 3
OKC Sterns 3
Sacto 0 (eliminated... you knew it was coming)

At least 5th seed

Lakers 13
San Antonio 22
Denver 22
Houston 24
Portland 25
New Orleans 25
Utah 24
Dallas 24
Phoenix 22
Golden State 9
Minnesota 7
Memphis 4
Clippers 2
OKC Sterns 2

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Lakers 13
San Antonio 22
Denver 22
Houston 24
Portland 24
New Orleans 24
Utah 23
Dallas 23
Phoenix 21
Golden State 8
Minnesota 6
Memphis 3
Clippers 1
OKC Sterns 1

At least 3rd seed

Lakers 13
San Antonio 22
Denver 22
Houston 22
Portland 22
New Orleans 22
Utah 21
Dallas 21
Phoenix 19
Golden State 6
Minnesota 4
Memphis 1

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Lakers 15
San Antonio 24
Denver 24
Houston 22
Portland 22
New Orleans 22
Utah 21
Dallas 21
Phoenix 19
Golden State 6
Minnesota 4
Memphis 1

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Lakers 17
San Antonio 17
Denver 15
Houston 13
Portland 13
New Orleans 13
Utah 12
Dallas 12
Phoenix 10

Raptors: 22 games left; best record possible = 45 wins; need to go 17-5 the rest of the way to get a 40-42 record

Playoff probability = 1.7 % (down from 5 %... gulp!); probability to win the lottery = 1.3 % (down from 1.8 %) [note: ironically, both our chances at the playoffs and at the lottery went down]
See SS's thread (click "link" in OP) I thought it would be cool to track this over time.

And the Raps are still hanging on by their fingernails to the 2nd seed race.

East: Lots of movement in the basement. The Bulls' win over the Rockets launches them back up to the 9th spot at NJ's expense. Also, both Indiana and Charlotte pass New York, and Charlotte even leapfrogs Indiana to climb 2 spots. Basically, the 11th through 13th spots have been turned on their heads.

West: The Kings, after their loss to Utah, have been eliminated from the races for 6th, 7th and 8th seeds, making the Kings the first team to be officially eliminated from the 2009 playoffs. Congratulations Kings! You're superlative at something!

[Paperclip]

Great job, I like this thread. I find myself checking this thread every other day, I like tracking things.

Do you crunch these numbers manually? or are you using some program or macro to calculate it for you? It gave me an idea to write up a quick program for it, but my laziness is overwhelming. Maybe next year.

[rdtx2005]

Deng could be out for the year for the Bulls.. makes things more interesting.

[Tom Baker]

Great job, I like this thread. I find myself checking this thread every other day, I like tracking things.

Do you crunch these numbers manually? or are you using some program or macro to calculate it for you? It gave me an idea to write up a quick program for it, but my laziness is overwhelming. Maybe next year.

Thanks. I like tracking things too (as weird as that sounds once you see it on paper), which is what got me going on this thread idea in the first place. I actually started tracking these numbers a few years ago and clued in to actually post them here a couple years ago. As for actually tracking them, I might as well share.

I didn't make a program, since I haven't taken a computer course in a zillion years. I just use an Excel spreadsheet (actually it's OpenOffice, but it's the same, essentially). All my formulas were entered years ago, and I just update the standings. Once the standings are punched in, all the magic numbers, plus the games remaining, best records possible, etc. are just churned out automatically. It's actually about a 5 minute process.

What's long is updating this thread. That takes easily 20-5 minutes every morning, plus about 5 minutes for the comments section. Too bad it can't be automated, spreadsheet style.

EDIT: I used to track the division races too, but it was way too much work since all the references kept changing whenever the order of the standings changed. Maybe a program would do a better job tracking those... or maybe I'm just not clever enough with a spreadsheet.

[Tom Baker]

Deng could be out for the year for the Bulls.. makes things more interesting.

He is? I missed that story. What happened?

Of course, they cut his minutes after the trade(s), I believe, so it would be interesting to see if this has a big impact.

[rdtx2005]

Deng could be out for the year for the Bulls.. makes things more interesting.

He is? I missed that story. What happened?

Of course, they cut his minutes after the trade(s), I believe, so it would be interesting to see if this has a big impact.

i believe i read that it's a stress fracture of the tibia in one of his legs.. happened last night

[Rapsobsessed7]

wait so our playoff chances are 2 % so were basically done

[Tom Baker]

i believe i read that it's a stress fracture of the tibia in one of his legs.. happened last night

Thanks.

Wow. Sure are a lot of broken legs this year: Hump, Fear the Fro and now Deng.

wait so our playoff chances are 2 % so were basically done

I'm waiting for the end of this 7 game stretch against tough teams (Phoenix down - L... 6 to go). We'll know a hell of a lot by the end of that stretch.

Once we can't mathematically reach 40 wins, I'd stick a fork in it.

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 1st March 2009:
including Raptors @ Dallas

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For teams in bold, the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot (or whatever spot is indicated). For the teams in regular text, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs (or whatever spot is indicated).

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1.

Eastern Conference:

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Cleveland 4
Boston 3
Orlando 7
Atlanta 17
Miami 19
Philadelphia 21
Detroit 21
Milwaukee 21
Chicago 21
New Jersey 22
Indiana 18
Charlotte 19
New York 19
Toronto 16
Washington 9

At least 7th seed

Cleveland 4
Boston 3
Orlando 7
Atlanta 17
Miami 19
Philadelphia 21
Detroit 21
Milwaukee 21
Chicago 21
New Jersey 22
Indiana 18
Charlotte 19
New York 19
Toronto 16
Washington 9

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 8
Boston 7
Orlando 11
Atlanta 21
Miami 23
Philadelphia 25
Detroit 25
Milwaukee 21
Chicago 21
New Jersey 22
Indiana 18
Charlotte 19
New York 19
Toronto 16
Washington 9

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 8
Boston 7
Orlando 11
Atlanta 21
Miami 23
Philadelphia 23
Detroit 23
Milwaukee 19
Chicago 19
New Jersey 20
Indiana 16
Charlotte 17
New York 17
Toronto 14
Washington 7

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Cleveland 10
Boston 9
Orlando 13
Atlanta 23
Miami 23
Philadelphia 21
Detroit 21
Milwaukee 17
Chicago 17
New Jersey 18
Indiana 14
Charlotte 15
New York 15
Toronto 12
Washington 5

At least 3rd seed

Cleveland 11
Boston 10
Orlando 14
Atlanta 14
Miami 13
Philadelphia 11
Detroit 11
Milwaukee 7
Chicago 7
New Jersey 8
Indiana 4
Charlotte 5
New York 5
Toronto 2

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Cleveland 21
Boston 20
Orlando 20
Atlanta 10
Miami 9
Philadelphia 7
Detroit 7
Milwaukee 3
Chicago 3
New Jersey 4
Indiana 0 (eliminated)
Charlotte 1
New York 1
Toronto 0 (eliminated)

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Cleveland 23
Boston 23
Orlando 21
Atlanta 11
Miami 10
Philadelphia 8
Detroit 8
Milwaukee 4
Chicago 4
New Jersey 5
Indiana 1
Charlotte 2
New York 2

Western Conference

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
Denver 19
Houston 20
Portland 21
New Orleans 22
Utah 21
Dallas 22
Phoenix 22
Golden State 8
Minnesota 6
Memphis 4
Clippers 2
OKC Sterns 2

At least 7th seed

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Denver 21
Houston 22
Portland 23
New Orleans 24
Utah 23
Dallas 23
Phoenix 21
Golden State 7
Minnesota 5
Memphis 3
Clippers 1
OKC Sterns 1

At least 6th seed

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Denver 21
Houston 22
Portland 23
New Orleans 24
Utah 24
Dallas 24
Phoenix 22
Golden State 8
Minnesota 6
Memphis 4
Clippers 2
OKC Sterns 2

At least 5th seed

Lakers 13
San Antonio 22
Denver 22
Houston 23
Portland 24
New Orleans 24
Utah 23
Dallas 23
Phoenix 21
Golden State 7
Minnesota 5
Memphis 3
Clippers 1
OKC Sterns 1

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Lakers 13
San Antonio 22
Denver 22
Houston 23
Portland 23
New Orleans 23
Utah 22
Dallas 22
Phoenix 20
Golden State 6
Minnesota 4
Memphis 2
Clippers 0 (eliminated)
OKC Sterns 0 (eliminated)

At least 3rd seed

Lakers 13
San Antonio 22
Denver 22
Houston 22
Portland 22
New Orleans 22
Utah 21
Dallas 21
Phoenix 19
Golden State 5
Minnesota 3
Memphis 1

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Lakers 14
San Antonio 23
Denver 23
Houston 22
Portland 22
New Orleans 22
Utah 21
Dallas 21
Phoenix 19
Golden State 5
Minnesota 3
Memphis 1

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Lakers 16
San Antonio 16
Denver 14
Houston 13
Portland 13
New Orleans 13
Utah 12
Dallas 12
Phoenix 10

Raptors: 21 games left; best record possible = 44 wins; need to go 17-4 the rest of the way to get a 40-42 record

Playoff probability = 1.7 % (unchanged); probability to win the lottery = 2.3 % (up from 1.3 %)

See SS's thread (click "link" in OP) I thought it would be cool to track this over time.

The Raps are eliminated from the 2nd seed race.

East: Cleveland passes Boston again for the #1 seed, and Indiana climbs over Charlotte. Everyone ahead of us won, basically, but we lost, so we lost ground again.

West: Other than a couple of upsets, the Clippers and the Sterns get eliminated from the race for homecourt advantage.

[Paperclip]

Thanks. I like tracking things too (as weird as that sounds once you see it on paper), which is what got me going on this thread idea in the first place. I actually started tracking these numbers a few years ago and clued in to actually post them here a couple years ago. As for actually tracking them, I might as well share.

I didn't make a program, since I haven't taken a computer course in a zillion years. I just use an Excel spreadsheet (actually it's OpenOffice, but it's the same, essentially). All my formulas were entered years ago, and I just update the standings. Once the standings are punched in, all the magic numbers, plus the games remaining, best records possible, etc. are just churned out automatically. It's actually about a 5 minute process.

What's long is updating this thread. That takes easily 20-5 minutes every morning, plus about 5 minutes for the comments section. Too bad it can't be automated, spreadsheet style.

EDIT: I used to track the division races too, but it was way too much work since all the references kept changing whenever the order of the standings changed. Maybe a program would do a better job tracking those... or maybe I'm just not clever enough with a spreadsheet.

Good to hear you don`t calculate manually, that would be a pain. Actually excel spreadsheets or not bad, nice quick way to insert formulas and take input. I was just planning to create a user interface and automate the process of fetching the standings data from web-sites without taking input, but this is just a side thing for me because i want to learn something in particular. Anyway thanks again, this thread gave me idea and tracks magic numbers too w00t!

[Tom Baker]

Man, you can fix it so the standings automatically get updated in the spreadsheet? Damn... I clearly know nothing about computers.

Although, like I said, that's not the long part. The long part is updating this thread. If you can find me a program that does that, I'd be a happy man with 20 extra minutes every morning.

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 2nd March 2009:

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For teams in bold, the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot (or whatever spot is indicated). For the teams in regular text, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs (or whatever spot is indicated).

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1.

Eastern Conference:

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Cleveland 3
Boston 3
Orlando 7
Atlanta 16
Miami 19
Detroit 21
Philadelphia 21
Milwaukee 21
Chicago 21
New Jersey 21
Indiana 18
Charlotte 19
New York 19
Toronto 16
Washington 8

At least 7th seed

Cleveland 3
Boston 3
Orlando 7
Atlanta 16
Miami 19
Detroit 21
Philadelphia 21
Milwaukee 21
Chicago 21
New Jersey 21
Indiana 18
Charlotte 19
New York 19
Toronto 16
Washington 8

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 6
Boston 6
Orlando 10
Atlanta 19
Miami 22
Detroit 24
Philadelphia 24
Milwaukee 21
Chicago 21
New Jersey 21
Indiana 18
Charlotte 19
New York 19
Toronto 16
Washington 8

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 7
Boston 7
Orlando 11
Atlanta 20
Miami 23
Detroit 23
Philadelphia 22
Milwaukee 19
Chicago 19
New Jersey 19
Indiana 16
Charlotte 17
New York 17
Toronto 14
Washington 6

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Cleveland 8
Boston 8
Orlando 12
Atlanta 21
Miami 21
Detroit 20
Philadelphia 19
Milwaukee 16
Chicago 16
New Jersey 16
Indiana 13
Charlotte 14
New York 14
Toronto 11
Washington 3

At least 3rd seed

Cleveland 10
Boston 10
Orlando 14
Atlanta 14
Miami 12
Detroit 11
Philadelphia 10
Milwaukee 7
Chicago 7
New Jersey 7
Indiana 4
Charlotte 5
New York 5
Toronto 2

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Cleveland 20
Boston 20
Orlando 20
Atlanta 10
Miami 8
Detroit 7
Philadelphia 6
Milwaukee 3
Chicago 3
New Jersey 3
Charlotte 1
New York 1

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Cleveland 22
Boston 22
Orlando 20
Atlanta 10
Miami 8
Detroit 7
Philadelphia 6
Milwaukee 3
Chicago 3
New Jersey 3
Indiana 0 (eliminated)
Charlotte 1
New York 1

Western Conference

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Lakers 10
San Antonio 18
Denver 19
Houston 20
New Orleans 21
Portland 21
Utah 21
Dallas 22
Phoenix 22
Golden State 8
Minnesota 6
Memphis 4
Clippers 2
OKC Sterns 1

At least 7th seed

Lakers 11
San Antonio 19
Denver 20
Houston 21
New Orleans 22
Portland 22
Utah 22
Dallas 22
Phoenix 21
Golden State 7
Minnesota 5
Memphis 3
Clippers 1
OKC Sterns 0 (eliminated)

At least 6th seed

Lakers 12
San Antonio 20
Denver 21
Houston 22
New Orleans 23
Portland 23
Utah 23
Dallas 22
Phoenix 21
Golden State 7
Minnesota 5
Memphis 3
Clippers 1
OKC Sterns 0 (eliminated)

At least 5th seed

Lakers 13
San Antonio 21
Denver 22
Houston 23
New Orleans 24
Portland 24
Utah 23
Dallas 22
Phoenix 21
Golden State 7
Minnesota 5
Memphis 3
Clippers 1
OKC Sterns 0 (eliminated)

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Lakers 13
San Antonio 21
Denver 22
Houston 23
New Orleans 23
Portland 23
Utah 22
Dallas 21
Phoenix 20
Golden State 6
Minnesota 4
Memphis 2

At least 3rd seed

Lakers 13
San Antonio 21
Denver 22
Houston 22
New Orleans 22
Portland 22
Utah 21
Dallas 20
Phoenix 19
Golden State 5
Minnesota 3
Memphis 1

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Lakers 14
San Antonio 22
Denver 22
Houston 21
New Orleans 21
Portland 21
Utah 20
Dallas 19
Phoenix 18
Golden State 4
Minnesota 2
Memphis 0 (eliminated)

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Lakers 16
San Antonio 16
Denver 14
Houston 13
New Orleans 13
Portland 13
Utah 12
Dallas 11
Phoenix 10

Raptors: 21 games left; best record possible = 44 wins; need to go 17-4 the rest of the way to get a 40-42 record

Playoff probability = 0.9 % (down from 1.7 %); probability to win the lottery = 1.9 % (down from 2.3 %) [I'm not sure why our lottery probability went down... I'm beginning to think there's a luck factor in that website's simulations]

See SS's thread (click "link" in OP) I thought it would be cool to track this over time.

East: Philly drops behind Detroit. Indiana is eliminated from the race for 1st seed.

West: New Orleans passes Portland and the OKC Sterns get eliminated from the races for 5th, 6th and 7th seed. Memphis gets eliminated from the race for 2nd seed.

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 3rd March 2009:
Including Raptors @ Houston

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For teams in bold, the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot (or whatever spot is indicated). For the teams in regular text, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs (or whatever spot is indicated).

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1.

Eastern Conference:

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Cleveland 3
Boston 3
Orlando 6
Atlanta 16
Miami 19
Detroit 20
Philadelphia 21
Milwaukee 21
New Jersey 21
Chicago 20
Indiana 18
Charlotte 19
New York 19
Toronto 15
Washington 8

At least 7th seed

Cleveland 2
Boston 2
Orlando 5
Atlanta 15
Miami 19
Detroit 19
Philadelphia 20
Milwaukee 20
New Jersey 21
Chicago 20
Indiana 18
Charlotte 19
New York 19
Toronto 15
Washington 8

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 6
Boston 6
Orlando 9
Atlanta 19
Miami 22
Detroit 23
Philadelphia 23
Milwaukee 19
New Jersey 20
Chicago 19
Indiana 17
Charlotte 18
New York 18
Toronto 14
Washington 7

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 7
Boston 7
Orlando 11
Atlanta 20
Miami 23
Detroit 23
Philadelphia 22
Milwaukee 19
Chicago 19
New Jersey 19
Indiana 16
Charlotte 17
New York 17
Toronto 14
Washington 6

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Cleveland 8
Boston 8
Orlando 11
Atlanta 21
Miami 21
Detroit 20
Philadelphia 19
Milwaukee 15
New Jersey 16
Chicago 15
Indiana 13
Charlotte 14
New York 14
Toronto 10
Washington 3

At least 3rd seed

Cleveland 10
Boston 10
Orlando 13
Atlanta 13
Miami 11
Detroit 10
Philadelphia 9
Milwaukee 5
New Jersey 6
Chicago 5
Indiana 3
Charlotte 4
New York 4
Toronto 0 (eliminated)

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Cleveland 20
Boston 20
Orlando 20
Atlanta 10
Miami 8
Detroit 7
Philadelphia 6
Milwaukee 2
New Jersey 3
Chicago 2
Charlotte 1
New York 1

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Cleveland 22
Boston 22
Orlando 20
Atlanta 10
Miami 8
Detroit 7
Philadelphia 6
Milwaukee 2
New Jersey 3
Chicago 2
Charlotte 1
New York 1

Western Conference

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Lakers 8
San Antonio 17
Houston 18
Denver 18
New Orleans 20
Portland 20
Utah 20
Dallas 21
Phoenix 21
Golden State 8
Minnesota 5
Memphis 3
Clippers 2
OKC Sterns 1

At least 7th seed

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
Houston 20
Denver 20
New Orleans 22
Portland 22
Utah 22
Dallas 22
Phoenix 20
Golden State 7
Minnesota 4
Memphis 2
Clippers 1

At least 6th seed

Lakers 11
San Antonio 20
Houston 21
Denver 21
New Orleans 23
Portland 23
Utah 23
Dallas 22
Phoenix 20
Golden State 7
Minnesota 4
Memphis 2
Clippers 1

At least 5th seed

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Houston 22
Denver 22
New Orleans 24
Portland 24
Utah 23
Dallas 22
Phoenix 20
Golden State 7
Minnesota 4
Memphis 2
Clippers 1

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Houston 22
Denver 22
New Orleans 22
Portland 22
Utah 21
Dallas 20
Phoenix 18
Golden State 5
Minnesota 2
Memphis 0 (eliminated)

At least 3rd seed

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Houston 22
Denver 22
New Orleans 22
Portland 22
Utah 21
Dallas 20
Phoenix 18
Golden State 5
Minnesota 2
Memphis 0 (eliminated)

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Houston 21
Denver 21
New Orleans 21
Portland 21
Utah 20
Dallas 19
Phoenix 17
Golden State 4
Minnesota 1

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Lakers 15
San Antonio 15
Houston 12
Denver 12
New Orleans 12
Portland 12
Utah 11
Dallas 10
Phoenix 8

Raptors: 20 games left; best record possible = 43 wins; need to go 17-3 the rest of the way to get a 40-42 record

Basically, the Raptors have 6 games left against playoff teams and 14 games left against lottery teams, but can only realistically lose another 3 games all season and still make the playoffs. So, essentially, they would have to go 3-3 against the good teams and 14-0 against the lottery teams. While still possible, this team isn't playing like a winner.

I think it comes down to Bosh. Whether he's still injured, not trying, sandbagging, missing his buddy Smitch... whatever the heck is the problem with Bosh, it's like we're playing without him out there. In fact, we might actually be better off playing without him at this point.

I think what was left of our dim playoff hopes just went out the window last night. But hey! It's still mathematically possible.

Playoff probability = 1.0 % (up from 0.9 % for some reason); probability to win the lottery = 3.0 % (up from 1.9 %) [I'm not sure why our playoff probability went up... I'm beginning to think there's a luck factor in that website's simulations]

See SS's thread (click "link" in OP) I thought it would be cool to track this over time.

East:New Jersey passes Chicago to take the 9th spot. Toronto is eliminated from the race for 3rd seed.

West: Houston passes Denver to take the 3rd seed. Memphis gets eliminated from the races for 3rd and 4th seed.

[Tom Baker]

=================================================

March 5th, 2009, 9:04 PM

Just got home. Wasn't near a computer all day, so I missed today's entry.

We apologize for the inconvenience. We will return to our regularly scheduled Magic Numbers tomorrow morning.

==================================================

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 4th and 5th March 2009:

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For teams in bold, the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot (or whatever spot is indicated). For the teams in regular text, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs (or whatever spot is indicated).

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1.

Eastern Conference:

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Cleveland 1 (clinched already, according to ESPN.com, so they must hold the tie-breakers)
Boston 1 (clinched already, according to ESPN.com, so they must hold the tie-breakers)
Orlando 5
Atlanta 15
Miami 17
Detroit 19
Philadelphia 20
Milwaukee 20
Chicago 20
New Jersey 20
Charlotte 19
Indiana 17
New York 19
Toronto 15
Washington 7

At least 7th seed

Cleveland 0 (clinched)
Boston 0 (clinched)
Orlando 4
Atlanta 14
Miami 16
Detroit 18
Philadelphia 19
Milwaukee 19
Chicago 20
New Jersey 20
Charlotte 19
Charlotte 19
Indiana 17
New York 19
Toronto 15
Washington 7

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 5
Boston 5
Orlando 9
Atlanta 19
Miami 21
Detroit 23
Philadelphia 23
Milwaukee 18
Chicago 19
New Jersey 19
Charlotte 18
Indiana 16
New York 18
Toronto 14
Washington 6

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 6
Boston 6
Orlando 10
Atlanta 20
Miami 22
Detroit 22
Philadelphia 21
Milwaukee 16
Chicago 17
New Jersey 17
Charlotte 16
Indiana 14
New York 16
Toronto 12
Washington 4

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Cleveland 7
Boston 7
Orlando 11
Atlanta 21
Miami 21
Detroit 20
Philadelphia 19
Milwaukee 14
Chicago 15
New Jersey 15
Charlotte 14
Indiana 12
New York 14
Toronto 10
Washington 2

At least 3rd seed

Cleveland 8
Boston 8
Orlando 12
Atlanta 12
Miami 11
Detroit 10
Philadelphia 9
Milwaukee 4
Chicago 5
New Jersey 5
Charlotte 4
Indiana 2
New York 4

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Cleveland 19
Boston 19
Orlando 19
Atlanta 8
Miami 7
Detroit 6
Philadelphia 5
Milwaukee 0 (eliminated)
Chicago 1
New Jersey 1
Charlotte 0 (eliminated)
New York 0 (eliminated)

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Cleveland 21
Boston 21
Orlando 19
Atlanta 18
Miami 7
Detroit 6
Philadelphia 5
Milwaukee 0 (eliminated)
Chicago 1
New Jersey 1
Charlotte 0 (eliminated)
New York 0 (eliminated)

Western Conference

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Lakers 7
San Antonio 16
Denver 16
New Orleans 18
Houston 17
Utah 18
Portland 18
Dallas 19
Phoenix 19
Golden State 6
Minnesota 4
Memphis 2
OKC Sterns 1
Clippers 0 (eliminated)

At least 7th seed

Lakers 9
San Antonio 18
Denver 18
New Orleans 20
Houston 19
Utah 20
Portland 20
Dallas 20
Phoenix 18
Golden State 5
Minnesota 3
Memphis 1
Clippers 0 (eliminated)

At least 6th seed

Lakers 11
San Antonio 20
Denver 20
New Orleans 22
Houston 21
Utah 22
Portland 22
Dallas 20
Phoenix 18
Golden State 5
Minnesota 3
Memphis 1
Clippers 0 (eliminated)

At least 5th seed

Lakers 11
San Antonio 20
Denver 20
New Orleans 22
Houston 21
Utah 21
Portland 21
Dallas 19
Phoenix 17
Golden State 4
Minnesota 2
Memphis 0 (eliminated)
Clippers 0 (eliminated)

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Lakers 11
San Antonio 20
Denver 20
New Orleans 22
Houston 22
Utah 22
Portland 22
Dallas 20
Phoenix 18
Golden State 5
Minnesota 3
Memphis 1 (quirk... was eliminated, but was reinstated (probably briefly) because the order of the top teams changed, therefore the base numbers changed)

At least 3rd seed

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Denver 21
New Orleans 21
Houston 20
Utah 20
Portland 20
Dallas 18
Phoenix 16
Golden State 3
Minnesota 1

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Lakers 12
San Antonio 21
Denver 21
New Orleans 21
Houston 20
Utah 20
Portland 20
Dallas 18
Phoenix 16
Golden State 3
Minnesota 1

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Lakers 14
San Antonio 14
Denver 12
New Orleans 12
Houston 11
Utah 11
Portland 11
Dallas 9
Phoenix 7

Raptors: 20 games left; best record possible = 43 wins; need to go 17-3 the rest of the way to get a 40-42 record

Let's hope Pops makes the difference.

Playoff probability = 1.2 % (up from 1.0 % for some reason); probability to win the lottery = 2.2 % down from 3.0 % for some reason)
See SS's thread (click "link" in OP) I thought it would be cool to track this over time.

East:Chicago passes New Jersey again to take the 9th spot. Charlotte passes Indiana to take the 11th spot. Charlotte just keeps climbing; they were in the 14th spot quite recently.

Cleveland and Boston clinch the 7th seed outright, and clinch the 8th seed by tie-breakers. Milwaukee, Charlotte and New York are eliminated from the races for 1st and 2nd seed.

West: Denver and New Orleans pass Houston, whom had just managed to take the 3rd seed 2 nights ago. The Sterns pass the Clips, but it's pretty irrelevant since both are eliminated from the playoffs.

Memphis is eliminated from the race for 5th, but due to a system quirk (upper teams changed order), they get reinstated in the race for 4th seed, though they'll be re-eliminated again soon.

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 6th March 2009:
Including Raptors vs. Miami

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For teams in bold, the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot (or whatever spot is indicated). For the teams in regular text, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs (or whatever spot is indicated).

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1.

Legend: X = playoff spot clinched

Eastern Conference:

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Cleveland X
Boston X
Orlando 2
Atlanta 13
Miami 14
Detroit 16
Philadelphia 18
Chicago 18
Milwaukee 18
New Jersey 19
Charlotte 19
Indiana 17
New York 19
Toronto 14
Washington 6

At least 7th seed

Cleveland 1 (had previously clinched over Milwaukee, but now has a 1 (clinched if holds tie-breaker) over Chicago)
Boston X
Orlando 4
Atlanta 15
Miami 16
Detroit 18
Philadelphia 20
Chicago 20
Milwaukee 18
New Jersey 19
Charlotte 19
Indiana 17
New York 19
Toronto 14
Washington 6

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 5
Boston 4
Orlando 8
Atlanta 19
Miami 20
Detroit 22
Philadelphia 22
Chicago 18
Milwaukee 16
New Jersey 17
Charlotte 17
Indiana 15
New York 17
Toronto 12
Washington 4

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 6
Boston 5
Orlando 9
Atlanta 20
Miami 21
Detroit 21
Philadelphia 20
Chicago 16
Milwaukee 14
New Jersey 15
Charlotte 15
Indiana 13
New York 15
Toronto 10
Washington 2

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Cleveland 7
Boston 6
Orlando 10
Atlanta 21
Miami 21
Detroit 20
Philadelphia 19
Chicago 15
Milwaukee 13
New Jersey 14
Charlotte 14
Indiana 12
New York 14
Toronto 9
Washington 1

At least 3rd seed

Cleveland 7
Boston 6
Orlando 10
Atlanta 10
Miami 10
Detroit 9
Philadelphia 8
Chicago 4
Milwaukee 2
New Jersey 3
Charlotte 3
Indiana 1
New York 3

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Cleveland 19
Boston 18
Orlando 18
Atlanta 6
Miami 6
Detroit 5
Philadelphia 4
Chicago 0 (eliminated)
New Jersey 0 (eliminated)

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Cleveland 21
Boston 21
Orlando 19
Atlanta 7
Miami 7
Detroit 6
Philadelphia 5
Chicago 1
New Jersey 0 (eliminated)

Western Conference

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Lakers 5
San Antonio 14
Houston 15
Denver 15
New Orleans 17
Utah 16
Portland 17
Dallas 18
Phoenix 18
Golden State 5
Minnesota 3
Memphis 2
OKC Sterns 1

At least 7th seed

Lakers 8
San Antonio 17
Houston 18
Denver 18
New Orleans 20
Utah 19
Portland 20
Dallas 20
Phoenix 17
Golden State 4
Minnesota 2
Memphis 1

At least 6th seed

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
Houston 20
Denver 20
New Orleans 22
Utah 21
Portland 21
Dallas 19
Phoenix 16
Golden State 3
Minnesota 1
Memphis 0 (eliminated)

At least 5th seed

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
Houston 20
Denver 20
New Orleans 22
Utah 22
Portland 22
Dallas 20
Phoenix 17
Golden State 4
Minnesota 2
Memphis 1 (reinstated... was eliminated behind Denver, but is now very temporarily safe behind Houston)

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Lakers 11
San Antonio 20
Houston 21
Denver 21
New Orleans 21
Utah 21
Portland 20
Dallas 18
Phoenix 15
Golden State 2
Minnesota 0 (eliminated)
Memphis 0 (eliminated)

At least 3rd seed

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
Houston 20
Denver 20
New Orleans 21
Utah 20
Portland 20
Dallas 18
Phoenix 15
Golden State 2
Minnesota 0 (eliminated)

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
Houston 19
Denver 19
New Orleans 20
Utah 19
Portland 19
Dallas 17
Phoenix 14
Golden State 1
Minnesota 0 (eliminated)

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Lakers 13
San Antonio 13
Houston 10
Denver 10
New Orleans 11
Utah 10
Portland 10
Dallas 8
Phoenix 5

Raptors: 19 games left; best record possible = 42 wins; need to go 17-2 the rest of the way to get a 40-42 record

Games left against good teams = 5. We need to go 3-2 against those teams.
Games left against weak teams = 14. We need to go 14-0 against those teams.

It's getting more and more unrealistic every day.

Playoff probability = 0.6 % (down from 1.2 %); probability to win the lottery = 3.1 % (up from 2.2 %)
See SS's thread (click "link" in OP) I thought it would be cool to track this over time.

East:We finally get movement in and out of the top 8. Milwaukee finally falls out of the playoff picture and falls to #9, replaced by Chicago as the 8th seed. The playoff team Magic Numbers for 8th and 7th seed see some heavy swings because of this change, including most notably Cleveland, who had clinched the 7th seed over Milwaukee, now has a Magic Number of 1 over Chicago for that same race, so they were "unclinched".

Washington is close to being eliminated from the races for 4th and 5th seed. Indiana is close to being eliminated from the race for 3rd seed. Chicago and New Jersey are eliminated from the race for 2nd seed. In the race for the 1st seed, New Jersey is eliminated and Chicago is holding on by a thread.

West:The Lakers are the first team in the league this year to reach the 50-win plateau. Houston passes Denver and New Orleans again; seems like they flip-flop every night.

Memphis is eliminated from the races for the 4th and 6th seeds. Minny is also eliminated from the races for 2nd, 3rd and 4th seeds.

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 7th March 2009:

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For teams in bold, the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot (or whatever spot is indicated). For the teams in regular text, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs (or whatever spot is indicated).

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1.

Legend: X = playoff spot clinched

Eastern Conference:

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Cleveland X
Boston X
Orlando 2
Atlanta 12
Miami 14
Detroit 16
Philadelphia 17
Chicago 18
Milwaukee 18
Charlotte 19
New Jersey 19
Indiana 17
New York 18
Toronto 14
Washington 5

At least 7th seed

Cleveland 0 (clinched)
Boston X
Orlando 4
Atlanta 14
Miami 16
Detroit 18
Philadelphia 19
Chicago 19
Milwaukee 17
Charlotte 18
New Jersey 18
Indiana 16
New York 7
Toronto 13
Washington 4

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 4
Boston 4
Orlando 8
Atlanta 18
Miami 20
Detroit 22
Philadelphia 22
Chicago 18
Milwaukee 16
Charlotte 17
New Jersey 17
Indiana 15
New York 16
Toronto 12
Washington 3

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 4
Boston 4
Orlando 8
Atlanta 18
Miami 20
Detroit 20
Philadelphia 20
Chicago 16
Milwaukee 14
Charlotte 15
New Jersey 15
Indiana 13
New York 14
Toronto 10
Washington 1

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Cleveland 5
Boston 5
Orlando 9
Atlanta 19
Miami 19
Detroit 18
Philadelphia 18
Chicago 14
Milwaukee 12
Charlotte 13
New Jersey 13
Indiana 11
New York 12
Toronto 8
Washington 0 (eliminated)

At least 3rd seed

Cleveland 6
Boston 6
Orlando 10
Atlanta 10
Miami 19
Detroit 8
Philadelphia 8
Chicago 4
Milwaukee 2
Charlotte 3
New Jersey 3
Indiana 1
New York 2

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Cleveland 18
Boston 18
Orlando 18
Atlanta 6
Miami 5
Detroit 4
Philadelphia 4

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Cleveland 20
Boston 20
Orlando 18
Atlanta 6
Miami 5
Detroit 4
Philadelphia 4
Chicago 0 (eliminated)


Western Conference

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Lakers 5
San Antonio 14
New Orleans 16
Denver 15
Houston 15
Utah 16
Portland 16
Dallas 17
Phoenix 17
Golden State 3
Minnesota 1
Memphis 0 (eliminated)
OKC Sterns 0 (eliminated)

At least 7th seed

Lakers 8
San Antonio 17
New Orleans 19
Denver 18
Houston 18
Utah 19
Portland 19
Dallas 19
Phoenix 16
Golden State 2
Minnesota 0 (eliminated)
Memphis 0 (eliminated)

At least 6th seed

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
New Orleans 21
Denver 20
Houston 20
Utah 21
Portland 21
Dallas 19
Phoenix 16
Golden State 2
Minnesota 0 (eliminated)

At least 5th seed

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
New Orleans 21
Denver 20
Houston 20
Utah 20
Portland 20
Dallas 18
Phoenix 15
Golden State 1
Minnesota 0 (eliminated)
Memphis 0 (eliminated)

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
New Orleans 21
Denver 20
Houston 20
Utah 20
Portland 20
Dallas 18
Phoenix 15
Golden State 1

At least 3rd seed

Lakers 10
San Antonio 19
New Orleans 21
Denver 21
Houston 21
Utah 21
Portland 21
Dallas 19
Phoenix 16
Golden State 2

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Lakers 11
San Antonio 20
New Orleans 20
Denver 19
Houston 19
Utah 19
Portland 19
Dallas 17
Phoenix 14
Golden State 0 (eliminated)

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Lakers 13
San Antonio 13
New Orleans 11
Denver 10
Houston 10
Utah 10
Portland 10
Dallas 8
Phoenix 5

Raptors: 19 games left; best record possible = 42 wins; need to go 17-2 the rest of the way to get a 40-42 record

Games left against good teams = 5. We need to go 3-2 against those teams.
Games left against weak teams = 14. We need to go 14-0 against those teams.

It's getting more and more unrealistic every day.

Playoff probability = 0.2 % (down from 0.6 %); probability to win the lottery = 2.1 % (down from 3.1 %)
See SS's thread (click "link" in OP) I thought it would be cool to track this over time.

East:Charlotte continues it's meteoric climb from #14... now up to #10 in just 11 days, passing New Jersey last night. I'm actually starting to wonder if they can keep this up and make the playoffs. What's sickening, of course, is that they were behind us in the standings not too long ago, and we're the better team... "on paper", yet we're still stuck in 14th. And I suspect we're only 14th because it's too late to catch Washington for 15th.

Washington is very close to being eliminated from the race for 5th seed (and probably already is through tie-breakers), and is eliminated from the race for 4th seed (homecourt advantage). Finally, Chicago, the last of the race-for-8th-seed teams, is eliminated from the race for 1st seed.

West:In the West, the nightly flip-flop involving Houston, Denver and New Orleans continues, but with a little twist this time: Houston falls from 3rd to 5th behind Denver and New Orleans again, but this time New Orleans passes Denver as well to take the 3rd seed... for a night at least.

Memphis and the Sterns join the ranks of the Western bottom feeders who have been eliminated from the playoffs. Minny's hanging by a thread to the playoffs (and probably already is eliminated due to tie-breakers). Minny is outright eliminated from the races for 5th, 6th and 7th seed. Memphis is eliminated from the races for 6th and 7th seed as well. Golden state is the last hanger-on in the races for 3rd and 4th seeds... barely... but the Warriors are now eliminated from the race for the 2nd seed.

[Tom Baker]

Magic Numbers after games played 8th March 2009:
Including Raptors vs. Jazz

Playoff Magic Numbers:

Note: For teams in bold, the numbers shown is the Magic Number to clinch; the smaller it gets, the better and when it hits 0, the team clinches a playoff spot (or whatever spot is indicated). For the teams in regular text, the number shown in the Elimination Magic Number; the smaller it gets, the worse and when it hits 0, the team is eliminated from the playoffs (or whatever spot is indicated).

Note: As usual, no tie-breakers have been taken into consideration at this point. It's early and not all tie-breakers have been set yet. TIE-BREAKERS ONLY COME INTO PLAY WHEN THE MAGIC NUMBER = 1.

Legend: X = playoff spot clinched

Eastern Conference:

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Cleveland X
Boston X
Orlando 1
Atlanta 12
Miami 14
Detroit 16
Philadelphia 17
Chicago 18
Milwaukee 18
New Jersey 19
Charlotte 19
Indiana 17
New York 17
Toronto 13
Washington 5

At least 7th seed

Cleveland X
Boston X
Orlando 3
Atlanta 14
Miami 16
Detroit 18
Philadelphia 19
Chicago 19
Milwaukee 17
New Jersey 18
Charlotte 18
Indiana 16
New York 16
Toronto 12
Washington 4

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 3
Boston 3
Orlando 6
Atlanta 17
Miami 19
Detroit 21
Philadelphia 21
Chicago 18
Milwaukee 16
New Jersey 17
Charlotte 17
Indiana 15
New York 15
Toronto 11
Washington 3

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 4
Boston 4
Orlando 7
Atlanta 18
Miami 20
Detroit 20
Philadelphia 19
Chicago 16
Milwaukee 14
New Jersey 15
Charlotte 15
Indiana 13
New York 13
Toronto 9
Washington 1

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Cleveland 5
Boston 5
Orlando 8
Atlanta 19
Miami 19
Detroit 18
Philadelphia 17
Chicago 14
Milwaukee 12
New Jersey 13
Charlotte 13
Indiana 11
New York 11
Toronto 7

At least 3rd seed

Cleveland 6
Boston 6
Orlando 9
Atlanta 9
Miami 8
Detroit 7
Philadelphia 6
Chicago 3
Milwaukee 1
New Jersey 2
Charlotte 2
Indiana 0 (eliminated)
New York 0 (eliminated)

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Cleveland 18
Boston 18
Orlando 18
Atlanta 6
Miami 5
Detroit 4
Philadelphia 3

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Cleveland 19
Boston 19
Orlando 18
Atlanta 6
Miami 5
Detroit 4
Philadelphia 3

Western Conference

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not)

Lakers 4
San Antonio 12
Houston 13
Utah 14
New Orleans 15
Portland 15
Denver 14
Dallas 16
Phoenix 16
Golden State 3
Minnesota 1

At least 7th seed

Lakers 8
San Antonio 16
Houston 17
Utah 18
New Orleans 19
Portland 19
Denver 18
Dallas 18
Phoenix 14
Golden State 1

At least 6th seed

Lakers 9
San Antonio 17
Houston 18
Utah 19
New Orleans 20
Portland 20
Denver 20
Dallas 19
Phoenix 15
Golden State 2

At least 5th seed

Lakers 10
San Antonio 18
Houston 19
Utah 20
New Orleans 21
Portland 21
Denver 20
Dallas 19
Phoenix 15
Golden State 2

At least 4th seed (homecourt advantage)

Lakers 11
San Antonio 19
Houston 20
Utah 21
New Orleans 21
Portland 20
Denver 19
Dallas 18
Phoenix 14
Golden State 1

At least 3rd seed

Lakers 10
San Antonio 18
Houston 19
Utah 19
New Orleans 20
Portland 19
Denver 18
Dallas 17
Phoenix 13
Golden State 0 (eliminated)

At least 2nd seed (2nd round homecourt)

Lakers 10
San Antonio 18
Houston 18
Utah 18
New Orleans 19
Portland 18
Denver 17
Dallas 16
Phoenix 12

1st seed (conference finals homecourt)

Lakers 13
San Antonio 13
Houston 10
Utah 10
New Orleans 11
Portland 10
Denver 9
Dallas 8
Phoenix 4

Raptors: 18 games left; best record possible = 41 wins; need to go 17-1 the rest of the way to get a 40-42 record

Games left against good teams = 4. We need to go 3-1 against those teams.
Games left against weak teams = 14. We need to go 14-0 against those teams.

It's getting more and more unrealistic every day. Actually, it's close to being impossible. Not quite yet, but very close.

Playoff probability = 0.3 % (up from 0.2 %); probability to win the lottery = 2.3 % (up from 2.1 %)
See SS's thread (click "link" in OP) I thought it would be cool to track this over time.

East: Charlotte's meteoric climb briefly stops as New Jersey manages to overtake them and grab the 10th spot again.

Orlando is very close to clinching a playoff spot. Indiana and New York are eliminated from the race for 3rd seed, and Milwaukee might be eliminated, depending on tie-breakers.

West: Huge changes to the playoff picture in the West, and more than the usual flip-flop between Houston/Denver/NO. This time Utah and Portland are added to the mix. Houston climbs back to 3rd seed, while Utah jumps up to 4th seed. Denver drops all the way to 7th (they were 3rd yesterday), while Portland climbs a bit and NO drops a bit. Also, but less importantly, the Sterns pass Memphis down in the basement.

Golden State is eliminated from the race for 3rd seed. And, just as a note, Phoenix is starting to slip. If they're going to make the playoffs, they're going to have to make a push soon.