Deconstructing Bargnani: Is the Optimism Really Warranted?

[McFurious1]

At least he actually cares

Here's what I see: I see maybe the most mobile 7 footer in the league who can shoot and beat people off the dribble. He's a solid man to man defender and still learning the rest, but he has the physical gifts to be an all round good defender, he just has to learn the game more. He's good at boxing out and is getting better at going after the ball. Yeah he's still incredibly raw, but WTF more do you guys want?

The biggest thing Bargs needs to work on is shot selection. Right now he's pretty much chucking. He needs to find the balance of good shots and where to take them, and he needs to find when to pass.

Anyways these last two months are basically the first time Bargs has been given free reigns as a 30mpg starter and not been given the instant hook like in the last couple seasons. He's still in trial by fire mode right now and has a lot to learn. We're not going to turn the franchise over to him already, but do you guys really think he hasn't shown a lot of promise? HE'S THE MOST MOBILE 7 FOOTER IN THE LEAGUE WHO CAN SHOOT FROM LONG RANGE AND BEAT GUYS OFF THE DRIBBLE... YOU DON'T SEE PROMISE IN THAT??? I'm not saying he'll become this strong player, but if he learns the game and get's it together, he absolutely can. The rule of prospects is that you want players who have things you can't teach, and require things you can. Bargnani absolutely fits that mold.

Let's face it, the guy isn't Kevin Durant or Derrick Rose right now, but he's still a very good prospect... we have much bigger things to worry about.

And for the people who say he hasn't made strides this year... lol, ok. He's only vastly improved his defence, rebounding/boxing out skills, and his ability to score easily when he's not forcing shots.

I still think he sucks playing Joseball btw. Anyone notice how he went off when Jose got injured, then became sort of crappy again when he came back? He played fine in the San Antonio game btw.

Very nice post Mufasa.

[Mufasa_Reloaded]

It's hard for a shooter to have a good % when there's no movement, creation, or general spark in the offense. Right now on this team with the plodding perimeter passing, everything is contested.

How about these stats:

Jason Kapono: 43% for the year
Anthony Parker: 41% for the year

Did these guys just forget to shoot or what? What happened!!!??!?!? Weren't these guys like top 5 % shooters over the last couple years?

The answer: There's just no open shots in this system, at all. In the context of comparison to Parker and Kapono, is Bargnani's 43% really that bad? No, it's right in line. Here's evidence:

Parker's monthly FG%:
November: 39%
December: 36%
January: 50%
February: 31%

Kapono's monthly %:
November: 49%
December: 38%
January: 47%
February: 42%

Bargnani's monthly %:
November: 44.5%
December: 35%
January: 49%
February: 36%

Look how similar those monthly splits are! Now let's look at what coincided with those months -

November: Sam coaches. Pick and roll, similar to the last couple years. Kapono shoots fine, Parker comes in looking very old, but he's notorious for slow starts. Bargnani is in line with last year's Bargs, 12ppg on mediocore %s, some terrible nights some hot, lots of hook when things go wrong. He also plays SF for a bit, which works good in the first couple games but awful after so it balances out his numbers.

December: Triano comes in, we drop Sam's all day PnR scheme, noooooo tailspin!!! Ball movement absolutely dies, as do the shots

January: Jose is injured and sits out most of the month. The Solo/Ukic combo push the tempo and we actually have ball movement. EVERYONE'S %S HAVE AN ASTRONOMICAL JUMP. Jose comes back and looks healthy for 3 straight wins and everyone shoots well and our offense is still smooth, then his hammy returns and he looks slow and shaky again.

February: Basically December revisted. Awful %s across the board, Jose is slow again, no ball movement at all, no creation. Kapono's numbers aren't awful, except if you take out the Jose-less Spurs game where he shoots 9 of 16... without that game he's at 36% with the rest. Parker is at 28% without that game. Bargnani's about level, he scored 23 in it but most came late.

So if you put this all together, you can come to the conclusion that's been obvious when watching the games, that "Joseball" in the Triano era has done an absolutely terrible job finding shots for our shooters. Maybe it's his hammy, maybe he was only effective in Sam's Pick n Roll offense, maybe it's the other guys playing with him at fault, but in December and February, it's been uniformly flat out bad. There's no movement in our offense right now, it's slow, it's plodding, and it doesn't work, and usually when that happens, the %s for shooters go down.

It's really a simple fundamental concept... when you have ball movement, you find open shots, you have good % shooting. When you have some of the worst ball movement in the league like we've had in December and February, your %s for shooters suck really hard.

I think we should put Bargnani in a real offensive system first before labelling him a bust, in this system you can't help but brick, even for amazing shooters like Kapono and Parker.

[Mufasa_Reloaded]

The 3 point shooting is even more telling for Bargnani
Nov. - 43%
Dec. - 27%
Jan. - 48%
Feb. - 23.5%

How big a change is that? Are you kidding me? I think the evidence is clear. Sam + Jose was alright is not spectacular, they had an offensive system, even if that was Pick and Roll all day. I still support firing Sam because his minute allocation was horrible to start the year (and part of the reason Parker had a bad month I think - he got tired), and his quick hook on Bargnani prevented him ever getting anywhere. Jose + Triano on the other hand has been an unmitigated freakin disaster, as much on offense as on defence. I don't know if it's because Jose is injured, or if the fault's on JT, but the combination is flat out awful. I think Jose is still stuck playing in Sam's system but everyone else is doing JT. I don't know... but it hasn't worked.

[sl64]

^Pretty good analysis, but your argument lost a bit of steam there at the end when you tried to tie Bargnani's development into it. If Bargs' shooting struggles were caused by the stagnant halfcourt offense under Triano, you would expect them to represent a decline from his numbers in the smitch pick and roll offense, like Kapono's and Parker's. In reality though they're completely in line with his numbers under smitch the past two seasons, and my subjective opinion from watching him is that not much has changed in terms of where his shots are coming from, or what kinds of shots he's taking.

Your explanation holds water for Kapono and Parker, but Bargs' fluctuations are more the result of his innate inconsistency and streaky-ness than anything else.

[HEKTOR]

At least he actually cares

Here's what I see: I see maybe the most mobile 7 footer in the league who can shoot and beat people off the dribble. He's a solid man to man defender and still learning the rest, but he has the physical gifts to be an all round good defender, he just has to learn the game more. He's good at boxing out and is getting better at going after the ball. Yeah he's still incredibly raw, but WTF more do you guys want?

The biggest thing Bargs needs to work on is shot selection. Right now he's pretty much chucking. He needs to find the balance of good shots and where to take them, and he needs to find when to pass. He also needs to get his drives under control to the point where he can finish, pass, or whatever once his man is beat

Anyways these last two months are basically the first time Bargs has been given free reigns as a 30mpg starter and not been given the instant hook like in the last couple seasons. He's still in trial by fire mode right now and has a lot to learn. We're not going to turn the franchise over to him already, but do you guys really think he hasn't shown a lot of promise? HE'S THE MOST MOBILE 7 FOOTER IN THE LEAGUE WHO CAN SHOOT FROM LONG RANGE AND BEAT GUYS OFF THE DRIBBLE... YOU DON'T SEE PROMISE IN THAT??? I'm not saying he'll become this strong player, but if he learns the game and get's it together, he absolutely can. The rule of prospects is that you want players who have things you can't teach, and require things you can. Bargnani absolutely fits that mold.

Let's face it, the guy isn't Kevin Durant or Derrick Rose right now, but he's still a very good prospect... we have much bigger things to worry about.

And for the people who say he hasn't made strides this year... lol, ok. He's only vastly improved his defence, rebounding/boxing out skills, and his ability to score easily when he's not forcing shots.

I still think he sucks playing Joseball btw. Anyone notice how he went off when Jose got injured, then became sort of crappy again when he came back? He played fine in the San Antonio game btw.

Well said.
I say BC really looks at shopping Jose this summer along with our lottery pick for the upcoming draft in hopes of landing a solid 2-guard who can help take the ball up the court. (JJ, Butler, etc.)
Then let Roko and Banks split time at PG, with Roko getting the majority of the mins. The kid can run and isn't afraid to get to the rim, he just needs to work on his shot in the off-season. Put a guy like Butler along-side Marion, Bosh and Bargs and I think we are looking pretty good, especially in the East. Hell, a guy like Butler who can create will make everyone better, even Kapono!

[Crazy-Canuck]

I still see the potential, even when he has an off shooting he's had a few runs where he got the team back into the game.

His shoot selection is poor, but I put some of that on calderon. Bargs is a young guy getting used to a bigger role, but essentially has to create for himself. I like the chemistry he had with TJ, I think he had better shot selection because TJ knew where on the court to give the ball to the player to ensure optimal success.

A creating pg will do wonders for both Bosh and Kapono, Im almost convinced it would rejuvenate Kapono.

Bargs isnt a finished product, so Im willing to wait. What else we got? Jawai? OBryant?

[Mufasa_Reloaded]

sl64 - Eh? He shot 44%+ under Smitch's month as opposed to like 35% in the Joseball/Triano time periods and the second post showing the 3pt% is much more drastic.

If you're comparing it to last year... well there's no question he was absolute **** last year, but that's last year and not this one.

I agree though that Parker and Kapono are more likely to benefit from a pick and roll offense than someone like Bargnani, who isn't as much a pure spot up shooter. Sam's PnR offense is designed to go through Jose and Bosh, and then out to shooters if need be. So then couldn't you say that was a bad fit for him too? I mean think about how much he was ignored under Sam. Clearly though his 3P%, which was the blunt of his spot up shots, was excellent before and **** in Trianoball

Now it sounds like an excuse to say Bargnani has been in two systems that haven't benefitted him, but really if you consider the PnR one didn't, and then Triano/Joseball's stagnat one hasn't benefitted ANYONE, then you look at what he did in the 1 month of Solo/Ukic ball away from those two sides, then yes, you can say maybe he'd work better in a real offensive system where he can actually get shots and all.

[sl64]

Not just last year, but also his rookie year. His percentages are remarkably consistent apart from a bunch of smaller hot streaks in previous seasons as well as early this year, and then the 15 game hot streak. I think that's a big enough sample size to safely say those numbers represent Bargnani's statistical baseline.

The coaching has definitely been abysmal during Bargnani's time here, and that's obviously part of the problem. But I don't see how you can fully account for his persistent shooting troubles with the coaching issues alone. Another (larger, I feel) part of the problem is that Bargnani is very inconsistent, and, generally, not a very good shooter, both in terms of mechanics and results. He has his moments shooting the ball, especially from 3, on account of his streaky-ness. But he's been a mediocre shooter from 3 and a truly horrible shooter from 2 for the majority of his career so far.

[Clutch Carter]

It's hard for a shooter to have a good % when there's no movement, creation, or general spark in the offense. Right now on this team with the plodding perimeter passing, everything is contested. ....

That was such a long post that I had to trim the quote, but I have to say that just might have been the most interesting and insightful post I've ever read here. Well done.

Oh yeah, Amy Acker is adorable.

[RapsVC15]

+1 Mufasa, excellent post

[Kakapato]

Best posts I've ever seen in this board, Mufasa.

KUDOS

[KG1585]

sl64 - Eh? He shot 44%+ under Smitch's month as opposed to like 35% in the Joseball/Triano time periods and the second post showing the 3pt% is much more drastic.

If you're comparing it to last year... well there's no question he was absolute **** last year, but that's last year and not this one.

I agree though that Parker and Kapono are more likely to benefit from a pick and roll offense than someone like Bargnani, who isn't as much a pure spot up shooter. Sam's PnR offense is designed to go through Jose and Bosh, and then out to shooters if need be. So then couldn't you say that was a bad fit for him too? I mean think about how much he was ignored under Sam. Clearly though his 3P%, which was the blunt of his spot up shots, was excellent before and **** in Trianoball

Now it sounds like an excuse to say Bargnani has been in two systems that haven't benefitted him, but really if you consider the PnR one didn't, and then Triano/Joseball's stagnat one hasn't benefitted ANYONE, then you look at what he did in the 1 month of Solo/Ukic ball away from those two sides, then yes, you can say maybe he'd work better in a real offensive system where he can actually get shots and all.

It is actually funny that people blamed Bargs struggles on Sam, and now that his gone people are saying that he played better under Mitchell. It just doesn't make sense to me. It's a joke that people continue to blame everyone but Bargs himself for his failures.

[Paperclip]

The answer to the question is ...No. You want insight? Okay, he sucks.

[Duncanfan]

IL MAGO!!

[Guy Smiley]

How dare anyone use stats to defend Bargnani?

The one thing I will say is Bargnani has shown a lack of resilience not only this season but over the course of his career. Obviously a coach and his system will impact a player's performance but I think if we look at Bargnani's performance under every coach since he broke into the NBA, including the national team, it hasn't been a pretty picture.

IL MAGO!!!

[Kakapato]

How dare anyone use stats to defend Bargnani?

The one thing I will say is Bargnani has shown a lack of resilience not only this season but over the course of his career. Obviously a coach and his system will impact a player's performance but I think if we look at Bargnani's performance under every coach since he broke into the NBA, including the national team, it hasn't been a pretty picture.

IL MAGO!!!

He's using individual stats to analyse the team system... not to evaluate players like many do.

Sure you understand the difference.

CV!!!

[Guy Smiley]

He's using individual stats to analyse the team system... not to evaluate players like many do.

Sure you understand the difference.

CV!!!

I was kidding around about stats being used to even remotely defend Bargnani's play. I know there are some positives in his game which many have pointed out and I have acknowledged in some shape or form.
At this point I think the sample size is too small to properly evaluate Jay's system. There are a number of reasons the team has floundered during his tenure and some could be related directly to Jay's performance.

I was going to go further the discussions about Sam and his system but I have been overcome with a huge bout of laziness.

IL MAGO!!!