tecumseh18 wrote:
Keep in mind the "pinch" that BC mentioned and Dagger has been saying all along - the Raps would be reluctant to commit to salaries for more than a single season now that may put them in the tax after next season. So Parker or Joey can't return if the full MLE/LLE are used. And we want them used.
And taking that a step further, I don't assume we will do all of the things on your list precisely because the cap and tax numbers will probably fall again in 2010, and we have to make room for Bargnani's next deal. We don't have a lot of expiring contracts this year. So while the MLE is a possibility, I don't take as a given that we will use all of it, or if we do, that we will use the LLE. Remember, we also have to leave room for our 2010 draft pick - because if we miss the playoffs, it will add another $2 million minimum to our 2010-11 obligations.
Nor would it shock me if Delfino is signed for one year - after which he will be a UFA. I'm inclined to believe we will get to about $65 million in salaries with no more than $55 million guaranteed for the following season. Now if Bosh is traded, all bets are off because he can haul away bad deals like Banks or bring back expiring contracts or outright cap relief as part of the package. But right now, all my calculations are based on him staying, and declining his option so that his next deal starts at a little less than $18 million.
Right now, our obligations for 2010-11 stand at about $55 million, including our draft choice this year and next, and a $10 million extension for Bargnani. So logically, we can't add more than $10-12 million in multi-year contracts. If we make the playoffs and forfeit our pick, that would rise to $12-14 million, but we can't bank on that a year in advance.
So, it stands to reason that if we sign Marion to a three year deal, it will probably be front-loaded - so that it adds no more than $7 million to our obligations for the 10-11 season, and a full MLE should do likewise - start at $5.3 million, and decline. That would pretty much remove all of our leverage for 2010-11. You can see that it might be prudent not to use a full MLE unless we get somebody who is obvious good value. And if we do a Marion S&T, it would be prudent to either take back an expiring contract (maybe even a crappy one-year deal plus a pick), or trade him for a contract with less than $7 million in 2010-11 salary.
