ghuytro wrote:Let's run Hollinger's formulae against the last 5 draft classes to see how accurate his methodology is.
2002
Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
Drew Gooden 15.18 3
Carlos Boozer 14.75 26
Mike Dunleavy 13.94 2
Jay Williams 13.57 1
Chris Wilcox 13.28 5
Caron Butler 13.17 6
Steve Logan 12.91 22
Curtis Borchardt 12.75 12
Casey Jacobsen 12.73 16
Tayshaun Prince 12.59 17
John Salmons 12.46 19
Jared Jeffries 12.34 7
* Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Dajuan Wagner, Melvin Ely, Marcus Haislip, Fred Jones
2002 was a strong season for the Draft Rater, as it correctly recommended avoiding four players (Wagner, Ely, Haislip and Jones) selected among the top 10 collegians and made only one bad recommendation (Logan) in their stead. Boozer, Salmons and Prince all ended up as great value picks, with Boozer probably the best recommendation in the Rater's history -- the 26th collegian taken, he rated second here and is an All-Star.
2003
Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
Dwyane Wade 16.64 3
Carmelo Anthony 16.51 1
T.J. Ford 14.06 6
Michael Sweetney 13.46 7
Josh Howard 13.45 17
Chris Bosh 13.08 2
Nick Collison 13.03 9
David West 12.85 14
Luke Walton 12.70 19
Reece Gaines 12.62 12
Marcus Banks 12.33 10
Chris Kaman 12.20 4
* Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Kirk Hinrich, Jarvis Hayes
Draft Rater got the top two right but pushed down Bosh, Kaman and Hinrich a bit too far. On the other hand, it correctly identified David West and Josh Howard as strong prospects, and Luke Walton as a second-round steal. It also correctly avoided Hayes.
2004
Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
Luol Deng 15.45 5
Andre Iguodala 13.73 7
Josh Childress 13.15 4
Emeka Okafor 13.08 1
Kirk Snyder 13.05 10
Delonte West 12.83 12
Luke Jackson 12.69 8
Ben Gordon 12.33 2
Devin Harris 12.27 3
Jameer Nelson 12.18 11
Kris Humphries 11.67 9
Chris Duhon 11.54 21
* Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Rafael Araujo
2004 is the most similar to the real draft -- 11 of the top 12 college selections were the same. Only two of the recommendations were bad ones -- both Snyder and Jackson were busts, and the Rater had each a bit higher than they went in real life. On the other hand, most teams would be happier with Deng or Iguodala rather than Okafor, and the Rater found a second-round steal in Chris Duhon. Kevin Martin, a late first-round steal in real life, was 13th here.
2005
Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
Chris Paul 15.66 4
Andrew Bogut 14.89 1
Danny Granger 14.58 13
Sean May 14.33 9
Marvin Williams 13.94 2
Jarrett Jack 13.91 17
Raymond Felton 13.59 5
Francisco Garcia 13.38 18
Rashad McCants 13.31 10
Julius Hodge 12.57 15
Nate Robinson 12.12 16
Deron Williams 11.74 3
* Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Charlie Villanueva, Ike Diogu, Channing Frye
The Rater judged Deron Williams and Charlie Villanueva too harshly, but more than made up for it by pushing Chris Paul all the way to the top and Danny Granger to the No. 3 position. May came highly recommended and has played well when he's been on the court but has been undone by conditioning and knee issues. Jack, Garcia and Robinson were strong sleeper recommendations; Julius Hodge, not so much.
2006
Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
Rudy Gay 15.19 7
Rajon Rondo 14.65 16
Shawne Williams 14.64 13
Brandon Roy 13.88 5
Tyrus Thomas 13.44 3
LaMarcus Aldridge 13.01 1
Adam Morrison 12.82 2
Hilton Armstrong 12.41 9
Ronnie Brewer 12.24 10
Kyle Lowry 12.13 19
Shelden Williams 12.03 4
Marcus Williams 12.00 17
* Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant, J.J. Redick
This is arguably the Rater's best draft: It nailed five of its top six picks with only the Shawne Williams placement at No. 3 derailing it. That's a big improvement on what really happened on draft day, when Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant and J.J. Redick were five of the top 10 collegians taken. Only Morrison got into Draft Rater's top 10, and he was seventh rather than second.
2007
Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
Kevin Durant 19.01 2
Mike Conley 16.58 4
Greg Oden 14.88 1
Joakim Noah 13.97 8
Rodney Stuckey 13.97 14
Javaris Crittenton 13.72 17
Thaddeus Young 13.68 11
Brandan Wright 13.52 7
Al Horford 13.45 3
Jeff Green 13.19 5
Julian Wright 13.11 12
Corey Brewer 12.73 6
* Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Spencer Hawes, Acie Law
Moving Durant to the top spot and promoting Stuckey and Young were good calls, partly offsetting the demotion of Horford to No. 9 and the promotion of Crittenton to No. 6. Though highly anticipated, this draft has turned out to be a bit short on star talent thus far; we'll see in a couple of years how good this projection turned out to be.
2008
Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
Kevin Love 14.62 5
Michael Beasley 14.32 2
Joe Alexander 13.48 8
Mario Chalmers 13.01 29
George Hill 12.77 23
Chris Douglas-Roberts 12.46 33
Derrick Rose 12.36 1
Roy Hibbert 12.30 17
Darrell Arthur 12.17 24
Ryan Anderson 12.14 20
Marreese Speights 12.11 16
Darnell Jackson 12.11 42
* Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, D.J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez
2008 saw, by far, the Draft Rater's most radical departure from the actual draft, and also seems likely to go down as the Rater's worst overall season. Love led all rookies in PER and Beasley was fourth among '08 collegians, so the top two picks are solid. After that, it's a mess. One-and-done freshmen Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon all ranked too low, as did solid rookies Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook.
Of the players moved up in their place, Chalmers, Hill, Douglas-Roberts and Speights seemed like good recommendations; Speights finished second only to Love in PER from this draft class. On the other hand, Alexander, Arthur, Anderson and Jackson still have much to prove.
