DD Expectations Too High

[Dr Positivity]

I think DD will be our 9th most important contributer this year. Bosh, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Calderon, Delfino, Rasho will be the top 6 for sure assuming the last 2 resign. Evans, Wright and Derozan will be 7-9 likely in that order.

Anybody expecting more than a 7th man type contribution from Derozan is going to be disappointed his rookie year. I've said it before, as a rookie I expect him to fill did the role Joey did year - 15mpg energy SF, stats something around 7/4.

[LoveBall04]

+1 on that. Watching him in summer league, I found myself licking my chops (athletic with good handles and quicks - sorry Joey but ur just athletic) and thought "don't get your hopes up!"

DD surpassing reasonable expectations with great results is much easier on the heart.

[MinnyMo]

I'm just saying if Moon can average 9.5 ppg in 27 mpg for the Raptors as a rookie when his only skill set was being able to jump, then DeMar can certainly at least equal that, in terms of productions.

DD has a better feel for the game, a better basketball I.Q. and overall better skill set than Jamario Moon.

That is why I said DeMar's basement for rookie production would be Jamario Moon's rookie season.

[Dr Positivity]

I think the expectations are fair, no ones expecting him to average vince carter rookie numbers.

The majority of the board, seem to think he will average between 16-22 mpg and 8-12 ppg, which are very fair number in my opinion.

Well, just to show you how it usually works, only 6 rookies averaged more than 8 ppg on teams that made the playoffs last year. 2 were former #1 overall picks, 1 was the #2 overall pick. And the other 3 were over 23 years old. So, I don't think those are reasonable expectations.

I'm just saying if Moon can average 9.5 ppg in 27 mpg for the Raptors as a rookie when his only skill set was being able to jump, then DeMar can certainly at least equal that, in terms of productions.

DD has a better feel for the game, a better basketball I.Q. and overall better skill set than Jamario Moon.

That is why I said DeMar's basement for rookie production would be Jamario Moon's rookie season.

Here's what rookie Jamario Moon has over rookie Derozan

- He can shoot 3s

- He's 6'8 and has no problem matching up with big SFs

- He never turns the ball over and is an underrated, dependable passer

Moon in his rookie year was able to stay on the court 30mpg because he had the necessary tools to defend and spread the floor by spotting up for 3s, and by not making any dumb mistakes with regards to keeping the ball. If DD is a SF I think he'll be below average defensively and he'll have no shooting range. Which is a recipe for a 15mpg 7th-9th man role like Joey last year

You can play Derozan at SG, but again, no 3 point range and no ballhandling ability is a major problem that defenses will exploit, especially as a 19 year old. With DD at SG his situation is incomparable to Moon anyways, his game as a rookie will be more like Dahntay Jones. If you want your starting SG to be an athletic cutting guy we might as well start Wright because he has 3 point range and in general is just a lot more experienced and dependable as he proved on Dallas last year. Derozan actually has an identical skillset and game to Wright coming out of college, the big difference is Wright was a Junior coming out which limited his upside coming out

[Dr Positivity]

the best thing people could do is stop mentioning or comparing him to the ONE AND ONLY AIR CANADA, Vinsanity himself.

that's not fair to derozan and puts enormous pressure on him to put up those numbers. VC put up 18ppg in his rookie season so that's a tall order for him

Yeah the Heir Canada stuff isn't going to stick in the long run.

[garbagnani]

I think DD will be our 9th most important contributer this year. Bosh, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Calderon, Delfino, Rasho will be the top 6 for sure assuming the last 2 resign. Evans, Wright and Derozan will be 7-9 likely in that order.

Anybody expecting more than a 7th man type contribution from Derozan is going to be disappointed his rookie year. I've said it before, as a rookie I expect him to fill did the role Joey did year - 15mpg energy SF, stats something around 7/4.

why does everyone assume that Rasho will be a major contributor?

i bet he averages under 20 minutes agame. probably more like 15. Rasho will not be our 6th biggest contributor. book it

[MinnyMo]

The size comparison is irrelevant

Moon is 6'8 205 lb's
DeRozan is 6'7 220 lb's

If anything DeRozan is better equipped to handle bigger 3's in the league since he has 15 pounds on Moon.

Also I'm quite ok with DeRozan not chuckin up 3's like Moon did, he was a horrible shooter anyways and shot us out of games when he had mental lapses.

[djsunyc]

top10 player all time - that's just nuts

but i can easily see him in the top 11...

[MinnyMo]

I think DD will be our 9th most important contributer this year. Bosh, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Calderon, Delfino, Rasho will be the top 6 for sure assuming the last 2 resign. Evans, Wright and Derozan will be 7-9 likely in that order.

Anybody expecting more than a 7th man type contribution from Derozan is going to be disappointed his rookie year. I've said it before, as a rookie I expect him to fill did the role Joey did year - 15mpg energy SF, stats something around 7/4.

why does everyone assume that Rasho will be a major contributor?

i bet he averages under 20 minutes agame. probably more like 15. Rasho will not be our 6th biggest contributor. book it

Yea no way Rasho averages 20 mpg, at most 16, but more realistically between 12-15.

[Dr Positivity]

I totally forgot Jarrett Jack existed for a second there. So my correction, Bosh, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Calderon, Jack, Delfino will be the top 6. Rasho, Derozan, Wright, Evans will then by 7-10. I think by the nature of playing center and his defensive impact as well as veteran stability, Rasho is the clear 7 of those guys, Evans will be important because of his rebounding making him 8th, Wright is a better player than DD so he'll likely be 9th. So you're looking at DD being the 10th man next year IMO, and still 7th-8th at best if you think he's going to outperform Rasho, Evans, and Wright, which I don't

I think Rasho will get 13-15mpg backing up Bargs on a regular basis, but he becomes extra important if any of Bosh, Evans, Bargnani go down. If the PFs go down Bargnani fills in at PF as we don't have a 3rd string PF, and Rasho plays 30mpg at C, essentially. If Bargnani goes down, same thing obviously. Because Rasho is our only real center he's more important than any of our supporting wing guys if only because we have a ton of those. Rasho is probably more important than Delfino next year actually, the more I think of it

[Tony_Montana]

I'm just saying if Moon can average 9.5 ppg in 27 mpg for the Raptors as a rookie when his only skill set was being able to jump, then DeMar can certainly at least equal that, in terms of productions.

It's going to be really difficult to justify 27mpg for DD. Remember, Moon did not turn the ball over, rebounded tremendously, was our best weak side defender and our best perimeter man defender (was in the top 5 again in the Eddy Curry line). Not to mention, he is still much, much superior to Derozan as a shooter (comparing DD's college #'s and Moon's Raps #'s).

Really, Derozan is going to have to be really oppurtunistic to get his points this season (think CV a few years ago) because he damn well isn't getting plays run for him if we're serious and he isn't a good enough shooter/defender/rebounder to provide the Moon role.

[anotherhomer]

Moon was 27 when he came in

Derozan is only 19 and still developing. Give the guy time.

[Tony_Montana]

Also I'm quite ok with DeRozan not chuckin up 3's like Moon did, he was a horrible shooter anyways and shot us out of games when he had mental lapses.

Moon shot a very dependable 35% from 3-pt range for us. His TS% was 57% for the season. Neither of those qualify as "horrible".

[The Main Event]

he either puts up 15/5/5 on 45% shooting or i'm bringing a "DEMAR IS GHEY" poster with me every time i go to a game.

[Dr Positivity]

The size comparison is irrelevant

Moon is 6'8 205 lb's
DeRozan is 6'7 220 lb's

If anything DeRozan is better equipped to handle bigger 3's in the league since he has 15 pounds on Moon.

Also I'm quite ok with DeRozan not chuckin up 3's like Moon did, he was a horrible shooter anyways and shot us out of games when he had mental lapses.

DD measured 6'6.5 with a 6'9 wingspan at the draft combine, Moon measured 6'7.75 with a 6'11 one in 2001. Doesn't seem like much, but that 1.25 inches is the difference between "tweener" and "natural SF". DD's measurements are exactly the same as Dahntay Jones', who doesn't guard SFs. He also measured in identically to James Harden and Tyreke Evans.

There's a reason why he's being pencilled in as a future SG despite his game being much more suited for a Richard Jefferson or Trevor Ariza role. It's because very few 6'6 players play SF unless they have gigantor arms, which DD doesn't. Corey Maggette is one of the few guys Derozan's size at SF, and he sucks balls on d. I'm not saying DD can't be an adequate SF defender, but at SG he has the chance for defense to be one of his strengths and reasons for being on the court. At SF I think he'll have to settle for adequate

[MinnyMo]

The size comparison is irrelevant

Moon is 6'8 205 lb's
DeRozan is 6'7 220 lb's

If anything DeRozan is better equipped to handle bigger 3's in the league since he has 15 pounds on Moon.

Also I'm quite ok with DeRozan not chuckin up 3's like Moon did, he was a horrible shooter anyways and shot us out of games when he had mental lapses.

DD measured 6'6.5 with a 6'9 wingspan at the draft combine, Moon measured 6'7.75 with a 6'11 one in 2001. Doesn't seem like much, but that 1.25 inches is the difference between "tweener" and "natural SF". DD's measurements are exactly the same as Dahntay Jones', who doesn't guard SFs. He also measured in identically to James Harden and Tyreke Evans.

There's a reason why he's being pencilled in as a future SG despite his game being much more suited for a Richard Jefferson or Trevor Ariza role. It's because very few 6'6 players play SF unless they have gigantor arms, which DD doesn't. Corey Maggette is one of the few guys Derozan's size at SF, and he sucks balls on d. I'm not saying DD can't be an adequate SF defender, but at SG he has the chance for defense to be one of his strengths and reasons for being on the court. At SF I think he'll have to settle for adequate

Still the weight is a big difference, 15 pounds a heck of a lot when guarding a guy like caron butler or carmelo anthony

[roundhead0]

Some expectations may be too high, but give people a break. it's the offseason, and a franchise with a history of failure like the Raps needs this kind of hope to sustain the fans.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Well, just to show you how it usually works, only 6 rookies averaged more than 8 ppg on teams that made the playoffs last year. 2 were former #1 overall picks, 1 was the #2 overall pick. And the other 3 were over 23 years old. So, I don't think those are reasonable expectations.

That's not a very good argument.

And this is why, typically the better rookies get drafted in the lottery, yes?

Meaning the teams that were in the lottery did not make the playoffs the previous year, so it is safe to assume that a addition of only a rookie during the off-season will, for the most part, not make them instant playoff contenders.

That's where this team is interesting, we had a big hole on the wing position when the off season started and our playoff picture for the upcoming season looked bleak, at best. Pending some amazing work by BC, our fortunes have turned around, and with DeMar on the wing in the starting lineup, he will have almost no pressure on him to be counted on to put points on the board.

First of all, Jamario Moon scored only 8.5 ppg in almost 28 minutes as a 27 year old rookie on a playoff team. With good % for a rookie. He was also one of the best rebounding SF's in the league that year and played decent defense to earn him those minutes.

You've suggested that DeRozan is going to average 8-12 in 16-22 minutes. Now, last year, only one rookie scored over 8 points in under 22 minutes, and that was Greg Oden, and he was one of the better rebounding C's as a rookie and a former 1st overall pick.

So...I think it's safe to say that your projections are unlikely. Especially more unlikely if DeMar is starting with Bosh/AB and Hedo all needing shots.

[MinnyMo]

Well, just to show you how it usually works, only 6 rookies averaged more than 8 ppg on teams that made the playoffs last year. 2 were former #1 overall picks, 1 was the #2 overall pick. And the other 3 were over 23 years old. So, I don't think those are reasonable expectations.

That's not a very good argument.

And this is why, typically the better rookies get drafted in the lottery, yes?

Meaning the teams that were in the lottery did not make the playoffs the previous year, so it is safe to assume that a addition of only a rookie during the off-season will, for the most part, not make them instant playoff contenders.

That's where this team is interesting, we had a big hole on the wing position when the off season started and our playoff picture for the upcoming season looked bleak, at best. Pending some amazing work by BC, our fortunes have turned around, and with DeMar on the wing in the starting lineup, he will have almost no pressure on him to be counted on to put points on the board.

First of all, Jamario Moon scored only 8.5 ppg in almost 28 minutes as a 27 year old rookie on a playoff team. With good % for a rookie. He was also one of the best rebounding SF's in the league that year and played decent defense to earn him those minutes.

You've suggested that DeRozan is going to average 8-12 in 16-22 minutes. Now, last year, only one rookie scored over 8 points in under 22 minutes, and that was Greg Oden, and he was one of the better rebounding C's as a rookie and a former 1st overall pick.

So...I think it's safe to say that your projections are unlikely. Especially more unlikely if DeMar is starting with Bosh/AB and Hedo all needing shots.

How is it not likely?

8 points = 4 baskets, with DD basically being able to almost move freely with AB, Hedo, and CB, who all require single coverage at all times, and depending on the situation a double team, surely it is a possibly feat in 20 minutes of playing time.

If DD is in the starting lineup, the only person a defender can leak off of is DD, therefore the lanes should be wide open for him to cut through.

[akiman911]

It's DD's fault. When he got Drafted he basically said.... AIR CANADA IS BACK- so we are comparing him to vc!