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Raptors On/Off court stats through 9

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Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#1 » by _venom_ » Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:57 pm

Now it's early in the the season so take these stats with a grain of salt but it's nice to see if the fans are seeing the same things that the stats are saying about player combos, how each player affects offense/defense, etc....

The two columns you should look at are OFF DIF (difference in the points we score per 100 possessions when that player is on the floor versus off). The higher (more positive) the OFF DIF is the more efficient our offense is. The other column is DEF DIF (difference in the points we give up per 100 possessions when that player is on the floor versus off). The lower (more negative) the OFF DIF is the more efficient our defense is.

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Some interesting things come up.

-Our offense is pretty much just as good with Bosh off the floor as it is with him on the floor. However, our defense is drastically better when Bosh is on the floor versus when he's sitting. Now you can look at this two ways: 1) Bosh is so good offensively that the energy opposing defenses expend on defending him causes a decrease in the opponents offensive production OR 2) Bosh is better defender than most people give him credit for.

-Our offense is much much worse when Jose Calderon is on the floor. On the flipside, we are actually worse defensively when he's not in the game (doesn't speak well for Jack).

-Hedo Turkoglu has essentially no impact on our offensive efficiency. He is also our worst defender statistically using on/off as we give up almost 7 points more per 100 possessions when he's on the floor.

-Belinelli, Bargnani, and Johnson have had the most positive impact on our offense so far this year.

-Our defense is drastically better when Demar Derozan is on the floor at a whopping 12.6 pts less given up per 100 possessions.

-Going by these numbers our best offensive lineup would be: Johnson/Bargnani/Turkoglu/Belinelli/Jack (Bosh actually has a better +/- than Jack and Turko but because of positon I left him out)

-Going by these numbers our best defensive lineup would be: Bargnani/Bosh/Wright/Derozan/Calderon
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#2 » by KG1585 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:00 am

Really surprised about Bosh's numbers. Watching the team play, it seems like the Raps are playing better with Bosh on the floor.

OT: Anyone know why, the pictures keep getting cutoff on all these threads?
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#3 » by _venom_ » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:03 am

KG1585 wrote:Really surprised about Bosh's numbers. Watching the team play, it seems like the Raps are playing better with Bosh on the floor.

OT: Anyone know why, the pictures keep getting cutoff on all these threads?


The chart shows that we are playing much better with Bosh on the court......however, the difference is more on the defensive end than the offensive end.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#4 » by Jimmy76 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:04 am

wow interesting stats

Derozen has looked like a roleplayer to me from what iver seen/stats ive found but from these stats looks like hes going to be one of those perenially underated winning roleplayers

Also does this mean the Hedo signing was (Please Use More Appropriate Word)?
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#5 » by Upgrayedd » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:05 am

KG1585 wrote:Really surprised about Bosh's numbers. Watching the team play, it seems like the Raps are playing better with Bosh on the floor.

OT: Anyone know why, the pictures keep getting cutoff on all these threads?


Could be because you're using Firefox, right click and press view image to see the whole pic. If you're not using that then I don't know.

On Topic now: On the defense, I think it's 2. People seem to lump him in to Jose Calderons level of defense. I personally don't think he's that bad though.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#6 » by Avenger » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:07 am

Yeah, Hedo has been really really bad defensively but some people still think he is a good defender based on how he did with Dwight and Stan Van Gundy
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#7 » by _venom_ » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:09 am

Avenger wrote:Yeah, Hedo has been really really bad defensively but some people still think he is a good defender based on how he did with Dwight and Stan Van Gundy


It's easier to have your defense masked when you have a guy like Dwight Howard at the basket.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#8 » by DG88 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:11 am

_venom_ wrote:-Our offense is pretty much just as good with Bosh off the floor as it is with him on the floor. However, our defense is drastically better when Bosh is on the floor versus when he's sitting. Now you can look at this two ways: 1) Bosh is so good offensively that the energy opposing defenses expend on defending him causes a decrease in the opponents offensive production OR 2) Bosh is better defender than most people give him credit for.

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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#9 » by Lionel Messi » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:15 am

DeMar = lockdown defender? haha...

this confirms some stff ive picked up from watching the game. Ive noticed we are MUCH better on defence when bosh is on the floor and our offence tends to be more flowing when bellineli is in.
Ive also noticed as much as jose does get beat by his man one on one he has been doing a solid overall job on defence this year...

Hedo will get better :/

and ive noticed bargs' efect on the offence as well, but im sure everyone can see that.
im sure these are as affected by who each player is playing with tho almost as much as the original +/- so id definetely take this with a grain of salt.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#10 » by KG1585 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:19 am

_venom_ wrote:
KG1585 wrote:Really surprised about Bosh's numbers. Watching the team play, it seems like the Raps are playing better with Bosh on the floor.

OT: Anyone know why, the pictures keep getting cutoff on all these threads?


The chart shows that we are playing much better with Bosh on the court......however, the difference is more on the defensive end than the offensive end.


Sorry, I meant to say offensively. He is only a +0.7 there. Raps are better with Jose on the floor defensively than offensively. That one doesn't make any sense to me. Is this because Jack has been worse defensively than Jose when he is on the floor?
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#11 » by Korr » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:22 am

Guys there's a huge flaw here: you're doing player-to-player comparisons while using team statistics as the basis for your argument. Points for and against are scored for/on the Raptors, not individual players.

Doing this might give some very general ideas, but the conclusions one would draw from a comparison like this can be very misleading. OP you did word your post carefully in that you didn't draw conclusions and made comments on who's the better defender, etc, but overall this is a very flawed way to compare the players. We all know Jose is not the team's 3rd best defender or Amir is the team's 2nd best offensive player.

This is why I think using things like D and Ortg should be discouraged because both are functions of the 5 men on the court, and not 1. Let's say player A sucks on offence, but if the other players pick up the slack efficiently the outcome is positive. That means that player's A number would look good even though he's bad offensively.

So you can't use these stats to see "who's better on O or D" because that would be misusing data and creating false correlations. A better way to look at stats would be comparing the 5-man floor units. I think 82games has a decent section on that.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#12 » by _venom_ » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:27 am

Korr wrote:Guys there's a huge flaw here: you're doing player-to-player comparisons while using team statistics as the basis for your argument (points for and against). While doing so might give some very general ideas, the conclusions one would draw from a comparison like this can be very misleading. OP you did word your post carefully in that you didn't draw conclusions and made comments on who's the better defender, etc, but overall this is very misleading. We all know Jose is not the team's 3rd best defender or Amir is the team's 2nd best offensive player.

This is why I think using things like D and Ortg should be discouraged because both are functions of the 5 men on the court, and not 1. Let's say player A sucks on offence if the other players pick up the slack efficiently the outcome is positive, which mean's that player's A number looks good even though he's bad.

So you can't use these stats to see "who's better on O or D" because that would be misusing data and creating false correlations. A better way to look at stats would be comparing the 5-man floor units. I think 82games has a decent section on that.


While I acknowledge that these stats don't tell the whole story, heck all stats don't but you're also selling these short. The stats show how the team has played independent of the other 4 players on the floor. For example, Bosh has been on the court with a bunch of different lineup combinations but overall as an average, when he's on the court our defense is a lot better. Who he's on the floor with is irrelevant because it's an average over the season of how our team has performed when he's on the floor.

Also if you look at 5man floor units, there's just as much wrong with those. Our two PG lineup is actually our 2nd best ranked 5 man unit, which is completely ridiculous.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#13 » by Kabookalu » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:36 am

Let's not forget how badly Calderon played to start the season, couldn't hit a shot to save his life so that may explain why his offensive numbers are so bad. And although DeRozan isn't a great on ball defender yet, what he does so well is that he doesn't exactly stop his man from dribble penetrating, but he does a good job of leading his man to where he wants to. One of the first things I've learned about basketball is leading your man to where he is weakest at. For some reason only DeRozan seems to have understood this concept.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#14 » by Undefeated » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:44 am

Yeah, I’ve been using this numbers to show that some of our starters aren’t as bad defensively as a few posters suggest them to be. Defensively, Turkoglu really doesn’t surprise me at all. Even if you watch the games, you can tell he’s always slow on rotations and doesn’t give a damn to close out on the shooters. However, his man defense is pretty solid when our team plays man-man defense. Offensively, I’m surprise by his impact. The guy has been shooting pretty decent and has been creating tons of easy baskets for Bargnani and Bosh. Werid.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#15 » by Korr » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:46 am

_venom_ wrote:
Korr wrote:Guys there's a huge flaw here: you're doing player-to-player comparisons while using team statistics as the basis for your argument (points for and against). While doing so might give some very general ideas, the conclusions one would draw from a comparison like this can be very misleading. OP you did word your post carefully in that you didn't draw conclusions and made comments on who's the better defender, etc, but overall this is very misleading. We all know Jose is not the team's 3rd best defender or Amir is the team's 2nd best offensive player.

This is why I think using things like D and Ortg should be discouraged because both are functions of the 5 men on the court, and not 1. Let's say player A sucks on offence if the other players pick up the slack efficiently the outcome is positive, which mean's that player's A number looks good even though he's bad.

So you can't use these stats to see "who's better on O or D" because that would be misusing data and creating false correlations. A better way to look at stats would be comparing the 5-man floor units. I think 82games has a decent section on that.


While I acknowledge that these stats don't tell the whole story, heck all stats don't but you're also selling these short. The stats show how the team has played independent of the other 4 players on the floor. For example, Bosh has been on the court with a bunch of different lineup combinations but overall as an average, when he's on the court our defense is a lot better. Who he's on the floor with is irrelevant because it's an average over the season of how our team has performed when he's on the floor.

Also if you look at 5man floor units, there's just as much wrong with those. Our two PG lineup is actually our 2nd best ranked 5 man unit, which is completely ridiculous.


Right but some stats are better indicators of a player's performance than others, and this one falls into the not so good ways. What you said is correct that for some players over the long run it would show a general, loose correlation. But the margin of error for these things I would say is big enough to discredit any conclusions you might draw from it, largely because of the impact of the other 4 players. Their impact on a player's number might be diluted over the long run but they're still there. Also 9 games isn't enough to dilute that.

The 5-man floor units stats don't show that at all. Read the actual numbers carefully. It shows that our two best lineups are Calderon-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh and Jack-Belinelli-Wright-Johnson-Bargnani, which I think most would agree on based on what we've seen.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#16 » by _venom_ » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:53 am

Korr wrote:
_venom_ wrote:
Korr wrote:Guys there's a huge flaw here: you're doing player-to-player comparisons while using team statistics as the basis for your argument (points for and against). While doing so might give some very general ideas, the conclusions one would draw from a comparison like this can be very misleading. OP you did word your post carefully in that you didn't draw conclusions and made comments on who's the better defender, etc, but overall this is very misleading. We all know Jose is not the team's 3rd best defender or Amir is the team's 2nd best offensive player.

This is why I think using things like D and Ortg should be discouraged because both are functions of the 5 men on the court, and not 1. Let's say player A sucks on offence if the other players pick up the slack efficiently the outcome is positive, which mean's that player's A number looks good even though he's bad.

So you can't use these stats to see "who's better on O or D" because that would be misusing data and creating false correlations. A better way to look at stats would be comparing the 5-man floor units. I think 82games has a decent section on that.


While I acknowledge that these stats don't tell the whole story, heck all stats don't but you're also selling these short. The stats show how the team has played independent of the other 4 players on the floor. For example, Bosh has been on the court with a bunch of different lineup combinations but overall as an average, when he's on the court our defense is a lot better. Who he's on the floor with is irrelevant because it's an average over the season of how our team has performed when he's on the floor.

Also if you look at 5man floor units, there's just as much wrong with those. Our two PG lineup is actually our 2nd best ranked 5 man unit, which is completely ridiculous.


Right but some stats are better indicators of a player's performance than others, and this one falls into the not so good ways. What you said is correct that for some players over the long run it would show a general, loose correlation. But the margin of error for these things I would say is big enough to discredit any conclusions you might draw from it, largely because of the impact of the other 4 players. Their impact on a player's number might be diluted over the long run but they're still there. Also 9 games isn't enough to dilute that.

The 5-man floor units stats don't show that at all. Read the actual numbers carefully. It shows that our two best lineups are Calderon-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh and Jack-Belinelli-Wright-Johnson-Bargnani, which I think most would agree on based on what we've seen.


Actually the Calderon/Jack/Wright/Johnson/Bosh lineup has been best according to 5 man units, however that lineup also hasn't been used much.
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Re: Raptors On/Off court stats through 9 

Post#17 » by Korr » Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:56 am

_venom_ wrote:Actually the Calderon/Jack/Wright/Johnson/Bosh lineup has been best according to 5 man units, however that lineup also hasn't been used much.

Woops missed that one. But yeah apparently they played really well for 6 minutes lol.
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