Article: Coaches use/don't use +/-

[supersub15]

read more here

The bottom 10 is stacked with players on losing teams. But there are examples plus/minus can reveal a lot about an individual player.

Michael Redd’s -8.2 rating for the Milwaukee Bucks shows he hasn’t fully recovered from a knee injury.

Derrick Rose listed in the bottom 10 is evidence he’s not playing as well as when he won Rookie of the Year.

Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis were both ranked in the top 10 in the league in plus/minus last season and are in the top 10 again this season. Could they have more value than given credit? It’s hard to ignore the Celtics and Magic outscore opponents more often when they’re on the court.

Read more: http://www.newsok.com/plusminus-debate- ... z0Z2AWS3Qn

[dillio]

Thanks for the link. I pretty much agree with the sentiment that it's not the be-all and end-all, but it does tell part of the story. I've read Doug Smith say things like "there are 10 guys on the court" and "basketbal is a team game" to argue against it, but that's not a very good argument IMO. The better argument is that basketball is highly situational, and +/- in blowouts or during other specific situations might not yield any value. That said, +/- during regular games and regular situations can definitely tell part of the story. Whether it's player X seems to influence the game in a positive way or player Y's poor help defense seems to cost his team more points than you would think.

I also found it kind of funny that some of the players (like Westbrook) don't understand the stat and don't understand what it means. It's not exactly rocket science; it's a pretty rudimentary stat.

[jsmith]

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus ... am=Raptors

Hedo the only positive at 18. Everyone else negative.

[roundhead0]

+/- is the ultimate objective stat for measuring how you performed in the past. However, it has limited predictive value which is what we're more interested in. It relies heavily on context, and that context does not show up in the number alone.

For example, if you're a -4 player and the rest of your team is -8, that means you're probably better than the rest of your team. But how do you compare to a guy who is +4 on a team full of +8's? Impossible to know for sure.

It also fails to take into consideration the quality of the opposition. Someone at -2 vs starting 5's may in fact be better than someone else on the same team at +2 but primarily vs reserves.

[roundhead0]

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22009&split=9&team=Raptors

Hedo the only positive at 18. Everyone else negative.

It also shows Wright as being better than Amir. Is there anyone out there who thinks Wright has been having a better season than Amir?

[Hobo Gonzolez]

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22009&split=9&team=Raptors

Hedo the only positive at 18. Everyone else negative.

I remember when Caledron fans always used to use his +/- to back up that he was better than TJ Ford. I wonder what happened to them.

[user name]

The biggest problem with +/- stats is that they do not take into account who it is that you replace. I would think that being on the court when Kobe sits will negatively effect whomever backs him up. This guy never gets to play with the team's best player. You also have guys who always defend the opponent's best player. When that guy comes out so does this defender, so all his minutes are against the best the opponent has to offer.

[vexen]

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22009&split=9&team=Raptors

Hedo the only positive at 18. Everyone else negative.

I remember when Caledron fans always used to use his +/- to back up that he was better than TJ Ford. I wonder what happened to them.

Same thing that happened to Jose's game.. They "it" disappeared

[sump]

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22009&split=9&team=Raptors

Hedo the only positive at 18. Everyone else negative.

I remember when Caledron fans always used to use his +/- to back up that he was better than TJ Ford. I wonder what happened to them.

Jose fans were traded to Indy with TJ thats why they are non-existent. It isn't just his lackluster play

[roundhead0]

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22009&split=9&team=Raptors

Hedo the only positive at 18. Everyone else negative.

I remember when Caledron fans always used to use his +/- to back up that he was better than TJ Ford. I wonder what happened to them.

I don't know about the +/- showing that Calderon was "better" than TJ, but it certainly showed that Calderon looked like he was ready to stop playing against second units and take on starting units.

[Volcano]

For example, if you're a -4 player and the rest of your team is -8, that means you're probably better than the rest of your team. But how do you compare to a guy who is +4 on a team full of +8's? Impossible to know for sure.

That's not true. If a guy, who completely sucks, replaces a starter, everyone on the floor is going to have their +/- go down. That doesn't mean you're better than the rest of your team.

[dillio]

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22009&split=9&team=Raptors

Hedo the only positive at 18. Everyone else negative.

Wow, I'm really surprised to see Amir so low on the list. Not surprised about Marco and Bosh being so high up and Jose being so far down. Banks, OBryant and Pops are obviously only there because of arbage time. I wonder if it was 1 or 2 bad games that did Amir in. I'd like to see the same list with the top 2 and bottom 2 games removed.

[distracted]

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22009&split=9&team=Raptors

Hedo the only positive at 18. Everyone else negative.

Wow, I'm really surprised to see Amir so low on the list. Not surprised about Marco and Bosh being so high up and Jose being so far down. Banks, OBryant and Pops are obviously only there because of arbage time. I wonder if it was 1 or 2 bad games that did Amir in. I'd like to see the same list with the top 2 and bottom 2 games removed.

Or even better, some kind of 'game is still in question' stat. Like within 15 points, or within 10 in the last 6 minutes (positive or negative). And don't think that Morey doesn't use stats like that to weed out true +/-.

[Korr]

For example, if you're a -4 player and the rest of your team is -8, that means you're probably better than the rest of your team. But how do you compare to a guy who is +4 on a team full of +8's? Impossible to know for sure.

That's not true. If a guy, who completely sucks, replaces a starter, everyone on the floor is going to have their +/- go down. That doesn't mean you're better than the rest of your team.

And what if during the substitution the other team replaces their starter with an even worse player?

+/- is a terrible indicator of individual performances because it applies team statistics to individual players, much like Drtg and Ortg. It's only useful if you're comparing a 5-man lineup vs another 5-man lineup. Using the stat for any other purpose, such as using it to do player-vs-player comparisons, is plain out wrong and misleading.

The coaches shouldn't be criticized for not using +/- to determine who should get minutes, but rather criticized for not using +/- to see which one of his lineups do well compared to others.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

While it’s debatable how much value plus/minus has to grade an individual player’s performance, Westphal said the stat has been used for decades.

"Red (Auerbach) analyzed things but he didn’t need a computer printout, "Westphal said. "Numbers crunchers are always trying to catch up to guys like Red who saw the game and understood it.”

Best part of the article, imo.