Tankathon.com -- Draft Odds

[15th overall]

Thanks for making room for us, boys... hope we don't cramp your style too much.

If the Celtics can land #1, I'll be pulling for you guys to grab #2 for whatever that's worth. Milwaukee can have #3, I guess.. mostly out of pity. We all better finish ahead of LA, though.. really hoping their future hinges on Dario Saric or Dougie McD.

BTW, the coinflip's on Friday, via our radio play-by-play guy:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/456632506108747777[/tweet]

[Winglish]

^^^

Thanks for the news, 15th.

[Winglish]

Here are the exact lottery probabilities pre-coin toss for the Jazz:

1st 0.1035
2nd 0.1115
3rd 0.1205
4th 0.0493
5th 0.3056
6th 0.2598
7th 0.048
8th 0.0018

If we win the coin toss:

1st 0.104
2nd 0.112
3rd 0.1209
4th 0.0985
5th 0.3729
6th 0.1775
7th 0.0142

If we lose the coin toss:
1st 0.103
2nd 0.1111
3rd 0.1201
4th 0
5th 0.2383
6th 0.3421
7th 0.0818
8th 0.0037

So basically that win possibly cost the Jazz a 10% chance at the fourth pick and increased the odds of picking sixth by 17%. It all comes down to weighted coins and a loaded ping pong ball machine now.

[Gant]

I did a little figuring for the Celtics lottery chances last night. The Jazz situation is identical, so here's the result if it's of any value to you:

Math people please correct this if it's wrong, but I believe the lottery odds are as follows:

Chance for the top pick: 10.35%
Chance for top three: 33.45%
Chance for top four: approximately 38.4%
Chance for top five: 69%
Chance for top six: approximately 95%

Utah and Celtics split ping pongs. Coin flip decides who's ahead between the two teams if neither advances to top 3.

(Celtics other pick will also be involved in a coin flip.)

update: according to Sean Grande, the coin flips take place this Friday.

further update: The chance for a top pick will be either 10.3 or 10.4, depending on which way the coin flip goes. The chance for a top 3 pick will be either 33.4 or 33.5 for the same reason.

[The59Sound]

Thanks for this -- nice breakdown. I haven't done the math myself, but at a glance, that seems about right.

Honestly, as disappointing as it is that we didn't do a better job positioning ourselves at the bottom of the pile, things could be a lot worse.

[StocktonShorts]

FYI: I merged the "Jazz draft odds" thread into this Tankathon thread, since there was plenty of discussion like that here already.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Here are the exact lottery probabilities pre-coin toss for the Jazz:

1st 0.1035
2nd 0.1115
3rd 0.1205
4th 0.0493
5th 0.3056
6th 0.2598
7th 0.048
8th 0.0018

If we win the coin toss:

1st 0.104
2nd 0.112
3rd 0.1209
4th 0.0985
5th 0.3729
6th 0.1775
7th 0.0142

If we lose the coin toss:
1st 0.103
2nd 0.1111
3rd 0.1201
4th 0
5th 0.2383
6th 0.3421
7th 0.0818
8th 0.0037

So basically that win possibly cost the Jazz a 10% chance at the fourth pick and increased the odds of picking sixth by 17%. It all comes down to weighted coins and a loaded ping pong ball machine now.

If we lose the coin toss, last nights win will only cost us 1-2% chance at each of the top 3 picks, but entire chance at 4th, and doubles the chance of 6th pick!

[StocktonShorts]

Here are the exact lottery probabilities pre-coin toss for the Jazz:

1st 0.1035
2nd 0.1115
3rd 0.1205
4th 0.0493
5th 0.3056
6th 0.2598
7th 0.048
8th 0.0018 +

If we win the coin toss:

1st 0.104
2nd 0.112
3rd 0.1209
4th 0.0985
5th 0.3729
6th 0.1775
7th 0.0142

If we lose the coin toss:
1st 0.103
2nd 0.1111
3rd 0.1201
4th 0
5th 0.2383
6th 0.3421
7th 0.0818
8th 0.0037

So basically that win possibly cost the Jazz a 10% chance at the fourth pick and increased the odds of picking sixth by 17%. It all comes down to weighted coins and a loaded ping pong ball machine now.

Expected value of Jazz pick: 4.3

[DWill#8]

Here are the exact lottery probabilities pre-coin toss for the Jazz:

1st 0.1035
2nd 0.1115
3rd 0.1205
4th 0.0493
5th 0.3056
6th 0.2598
7th 0.048
8th 0.0018

If we win the coin toss:

1st 0.104
2nd 0.112
3rd 0.1209
4th 0.0985
5th 0.3729
6th 0.1775
7th 0.0142

If we lose the coin toss:
1st 0.103
2nd 0.1111
3rd 0.1201
4th 0
5th 0.2383
6th 0.3421
7th 0.0818
8th 0.0037

So basically that win possibly cost the Jazz a 10% chance at the fourth pick and increased the odds of picking sixth by 17%. It all comes down to weighted coins and a loaded ping pong ball machine now.

If we lose the coin toss, last nights win will only cost us 1-2% chance at each of the top 3 picks, but entire chance at 4th, and doubles the chance of 6th pick!

Here is what winning last night potentially cost us in probabilities.

The first column shows the chances had we lost to Minnesota (no tie with Boston).
The second column shows the chances given we win the coin toss with Boston.
The third column shows the chances given we lose the coin toss with Boston.

Pick loseMinn winToss loseToss
1st 0.119 0.104 0.103
2nd 0.126 0.112 0.1111
3rd 0.133 0.1209 0.1201
4th 0.0985 0.0985 0
5th 0.3507 0.3729 0.2383
6th 0.1603 0.1775 0.3421
7th 0.0125 0.0142 0.0818
8th 0 0 0.0037

[StocktonShorts]

Here is what winning last night potentially cost us in probabilities.

The first column shows the chances had we lost to Minnesota (no tie with Boston).
The second column shows the chances given we win the coin toss with Boston.
The third column shows the chances given we lose the coin toss with Boston.

Pick loseMinn winToss loseToss
1st 0.119 0.104 0.103
2nd 0.126 0.112 0.1111
3rd 0.133 0.1209 0.1201
4th 0.0985 0.0985 0
5th 0.3507 0.3729 0.2383
6th 0.1603 0.1775 0.3421
7th 0.0125 0.0142 0.0818
8th 0 0 0.0037

Had we lost to Minnesota our expected draft position would have been 3.74, now it's 4.3

So it cost us half of a draft position, on average.

[SoCalJazzFan]

I'll try to make it simple.

Before Minn game (assuming alone at 4th worst record):
chance of top 3 pick= 37.8%
#4= 9.9%
#5= 35.1%
#6=16%
(less than 2% chance of 7th pick)

After Minn win (assuming we lose coin toss):
chance of top 3 pick= 33.5% (only lose 4.5% chance)
#4= 0 (lose entire chance of 4th pick)
#5= 23.8% (lose nearly 12% chance)
36= 34.2% (double chance of getting 6th pick).
(roughly 8% chance of 7th pick- 4X the odds of getting this pick)

As you can see, last night's moral victory was a potential disaster. Combined with the Magic last second shot win (and Richard Jefferson's season high night) ........ sigh.

[jjscap]

Jazz's probability of getting a top-3 pick is 30.0%, with coin toss taken into account.

[Jazz_Man_86]

We either get top 3 or fall to 5-6

[Blackie]

We either get top 3 or fall to 5-6

I went over and ran the play machine and it is accurate. We have a 33.7% chance of moving into the top three and when this does not happen we always moved down. I realize there is a chance we stay at number 4, but it is not likely. We move up or we move down. I hope it is up.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Purely based on odds, the Jazz most likely will pick:

5th - 37.3% chance
6th- 17.8%
3rd- 12.1%
2nd- 11.2%
1st- 10.4%
4th- 9.6%

However, you've got to love the greater than 1 in 3 chance of moving into the top 3.

[Blackie]

Here is what winning last night potentially cost us in probabilities.

The first column shows the chances had we lost to Minnesota (no tie with Boston).
The second column shows the chances given we win the coin toss with Boston.
The third column shows the chances given we lose the coin toss with Boston.

Pick loseMinn winToss loseToss
1st 0.119 0.104 0.103
2nd 0.126 0.112 0.1111
3rd 0.133 0.1209 0.1201
4th 0.0985 0.0985 0
5th 0.3507 0.3729 0.2383
6th 0.1603 0.1775 0.3421
7th 0.0125 0.0142 0.0818
8th 0 0 0.0037

Had we lost to Minnesota our expected draft position would have been 3.74, now it's 4.3

So it cost us half of a draft position, on average.

I like this. Now that we have won the coin toss we have a 37% chance of coming in 5th which is greater than our almost 34% chance of moving into the top three. We better get lucky.

[MeestR]

to clarify things, (mostly to myself), the percentage of receiving a 5th pick is the chances of any singular team behind us jumping in front. 6th pick percentages are the chances of any 2 teams behind us jumping in front. And the 7th pick percentage is the chances of 3 teams behind us jumping in front of us.

these are not percentages of being drawn to those places because only the top 3 picks get drawn. so the 4th pick percentage is the chances that Mil, Phi, and Orl all stay in the top 3, and we stay at 4. and our percentage at 1, 2, or 3 is the chance that our number get drawn at those spots.

[Hoops Addict]

Purely based on odds, the Jazz most likely will pick:

5th - 37.3% chance
6th- 17.8%
3rd- 12.1%
2nd- 11.2%
1st- 10.4%
4th- 9.6%

However, you've got to love the greater than 1 in 3 chance of moving into the top 3.

Thanks for the odds!!!

[StocktonShorts]

I put this in the other thread, but may as well post it here, too:

[The59Sound]

The pessimist in me was assuming we'd lose the draw, so my brain is still almost skeptical of this news. Seventh would be a gut punch, but I won't feel cursed by the universe if we slide down to sixth (as disappointing as that would be).