sipclip wrote:SoCalJazzFan wrote:Vucevic just got paid on average $13.5M/yr. Kanter is going to ask for around the same. Looking out 3-4 yrs, we can only pay so many players $12M-$15M per year.
I wish I could have watched last night's game, as it looked like Kanter had a nice one. However, 1 good game in 7 isn't enough. I also need to be convinced that he and Favors can play together, or that he is a better combo with Gobert than Favors (neither of which I am convinced of yet) in order to extend him at that price.
He could, however, become a good to a very good center for another team running a more typical offense as I do believe that he is capable of averaging 18 pts and 10 plus rebounds if given the opportunity. The question is how will the opposing player do each game.
Under the new CBA a 13mil contract will be more like 9mil when it comes to the cap so we can afford 4 or 5 player in that 13-15mil range without any issues. The fact that we can lock up Favors, Hayward, Kanter and Burks before the cap increase is huge for our rebuilding. Wait one year longer and suddenly every single team in the nba has caproom and some of them will have 80-90mil in caproom. My one worry is that we see Burks and Kanter take the qualifying offer just so they can participate in the feeding frenzy that will happen.
When it comes right down to it, even with the new TV deal, I am not sure that the Jazz can afford Kanter in a couple of years.
I've worked out a spreadsheet that includes only those players that the Jazz have drafted or will draft and Favors. I've assumed that the existing rookie pay scale will remain in place until the 2018/19 season (it probably won't) and used the 10th pick next summer and the 15th pick salary after that. I've also assumed four year deals at $10M/yr for Burks and $13.5M/yr for Kanter.
We don't know how the new TV deal (which will kick in 2016 season) will impact the salary cap and tax threshold, but let's assume $80M cap and $95M tax, which is pretty generous as the TV deal might be phased in over the 9 years so that it increases the cap over time, which would make the sense.
These are the results:
2015/16 Season- 10 players under contract (including Novak and 2015 draft pick), $65.5M salary, leaving about $10M -$15M for 4 players before hitting tax, which should be able to be done so long as they are small contracts.
2016/17 Season- 10 players (including 2016 DP), $65.2M- plenty of room with cap and tax.
2017/18 Season- 9 players (with 2017 DP), $65.3M. However, this does not include extensions of Burke and Gobert, or their replacements. Given new revenue, $30M for Burke and Gobert not unreasonable at all, which would put the Jazz at around $95M and still needing 3 players, pushing them into the tax. Hayward could possibly opt out, raising his $16.7M salary.
2018/19 Season- This is where it really gets messed up. $31.7M for Burks, Kanter and last four first round draft picks (with generous assumptions above). Hayward, Favors, Exum, and Hood all up for contract extensions (as well as 2nd year of new contracts of Burke and Gobert). The six of these players, and two others to make a roster of 14, will not be able to be signed for an amount that won't push the franchise into the tax.
As soon as the 2017 season, the Jazz could be looking at paying the tax. Will they have a star or two, or otherwise be able to compete for a Western Conference Championship to justify this expense to the owners? Some of these players will have to fall by the wayside over the next few years as the Jazz aren't a tax paying franchise. Who will it be, and will it begin with Kanter?
