2014-15 Predictions

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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#21 » by StocktonShorts » Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:09 pm

MHSL82 wrote:
Dry Fly wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if this Jazz team beats up on the weaker teams in this league competes with many playoff teams but gets schooled by the elite teams.

35-40 wins is more than just possible. Playoffs doubtful though in the west.

If we can beat each team at the inverse winning percentage of our opponent, we would win 40-42 games (by definition?). For example, if a team has a .83 winning percentage, we'd beat them 17% of the time. If they have a .46 winning percentage, we'd beat them 54% of the time. Eastern Conference times 2, Western Conference times 4. Round up or down.

26 if we round down every time. 55 if we round up every time. 42 by standard rounding rules. 40 by just adding the numbers up. I, of course, excluded playing ourselves, but didn't factor in who we only play three times. So there's a game or so more than 82 there.

Is this all by definition? Because half the games are lost and half the games are won since there are no ties.


What are you using for your winning percentage estimates at the time the Jazz play each other team?
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#22 » by MHSL82 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:36 pm

StocktonShorts wrote:
MHSL82 wrote:
Dry Fly wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if this Jazz team beats up on the weaker teams in this league competes with many playoff teams but gets schooled by the elite teams.

35-40 wins is more than just possible. Playoffs doubtful though in the west.

If we can beat each team at the inverse winning percentage of our opponent, we would win 40-42 games (by definition?). For example, if a team has a .83 winning percentage, we'd beat them 17% of the time. If they have a .46 winning percentage, we'd beat them 54% of the time. Eastern Conference times 2, Western Conference times 4. Round up or down.

26 if we round down every time. 55 if we round up every time. 42 by standard rounding rules. 40 by just adding the numbers up. I, of course, excluded playing ourselves, but didn't factor in who we only play three times. So there's a game or so more than 82 there.

Is this all by definition? Because half the games are lost and half the games are won since there are no ties.


What are you using for your winning percentage estimates at the time the Jazz play each other team?

I could try that in the season, but as far as predictions go, I have to use last year's records. Now, teams like Cleveland will go up and teams like Miami and Indianapolis will go down, even if slightly. But that' what made me think my numbers were cyclical, self-referencing, or by definition .500. I mean, if you add up the games, the NBA is 615-615 record wise.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#23 » by StocktonShorts » Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:21 am

Your method is flawed.

For simplicity's sake, let's use last year's winning percentages as an estimate of a team's quality for this year. What you're suggesting is that if the Jazz (0.305) play the Sixers (0.232) that the Jazz will have a (1 - 0.232) probability of winning, while the Sixers would have a (1 - 0.305) probability of winning. But the probability of the Jazz winning and the probability of the Sixers winning has to add up to one. Your methods violate this fundamental law.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#24 » by MHSL82 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:36 am

StocktonShorts wrote:Your method is flawed.

For simplicity's sake, let's use last year's winning percentages as an estimate of a team's quality for this year. What you're suggesting is that if the Jazz (0.305) play the Sixers (0.232) that the Jazz will have a (1 - 0.232) probability of winning, while the Sixers would have a (1 - 0.305) probability of winning. But the probability of the Jazz winning and the probability of the Sixers winning has to add up to one. Your methods violate this fundamental law.

True, but I didn't mean to represent it as my method, it was more of an aside. My fault, as I should have been more clear. My method is just an old-fashioned guess of how good we are. I posted it mainly to ask it was by definition that teams would all get to 41-41 using that method. I thought of it right there because the post I quoted mentioned beating bad teams and competing against good teams.
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Re: 214-15 Predictions 

Post#25 » by Joao Saraiva » Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:40 pm

Wins

Floor: 25
Ceiling: 49
Guess: 44

Jazz MVP: Hayward
Offense: Hayward
Defense: Favors

Best Lineup: Gobert/Favors/Hayward/Burks/Burke

Scoring Leader: Burks, 19.7 PPG
Rebounds: Favors 10.2 RPG
Assists: Hayward 6.2
Blocks: Gobert with 1.5
Steals: Burks 1.3
TO: Burks 2.8

Biggest Surprise: Gobert taking the C spot from Kanter
Biggest Disappointment: Kanter - won't provide consistent basketball and won't live up to his potential. Hope I'm wrong.

Biggest issue heading into next off-season: Cap space. Other guys will want better deals watching how much Hayward is getting.

Hayward's Stats and Shooting: 16.6 PPG, 6.2 APG, 5.7 RPG, shooting 46% from the field, 37% from the 3

Thoughts on Coach Snyder: will be our coach for a lot of years and we'll be relevant in the NBA again with him.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#26 » by Dry Fly » Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:05 pm

MHSL82 wrote:
StocktonShorts wrote:Your method is flawed.

For simplicity's sake, let's use last year's winning percentages as an estimate of a team's quality for this year. What you're suggesting is that if the Jazz (0.305) play the Sixers (0.232) that the Jazz will have a (1 - 0.232) probability of winning, while the Sixers would have a (1 - 0.305) probability of winning. But the probability of the Jazz winning and the probability of the Sixers winning has to add up to one. Your methods violate this fundamental law.

True, but I didn't mean to represent it as my method, it was more of an aside. My fault, as I should have been more clear. My method is just an old-fashioned guess of how good we are. I posted it mainly to ask it was by definition that teams would all get to 41-41 using that method. I thought of it right there because the post I quoted mentioned beating bad teams and competing against good teams.


Yeah I wouldn't use numbers to try to make predictions. New coach, new system, new players, and a young team pretty much make numbers irrelevant. I think this team could be drastically better than last year. It also could just implode. I would bet the former. I wish I had easy access to a sportsbook and lay some $$ down.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#27 » by falcon107 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:07 pm

The team's success or W/L percentage just depends on Kanter.

We all know what to expect other players more or less, but still after 3 years, Kanter is still like a black box.

For me the biggest surprise will be Kanter, if he can get close to his ceiling, and also the biggest disappointment will be Kanter, if he get close to his floor, or unable to develop.

He is the difference maker at this team, better or worse, we will see...
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#28 » by JazzMatt13 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:30 pm

If things click for every single player, we are looking at being the 2014 Suns. .500. This is best case scenario.

But if we got a few guys like Kanter and Exum who have trouble developing into a winning player as a meshed group of winners, were not going to be that great, but we would be more like 2013 Blazers, 33 wins. But even that is a long shot. I mean this is West, but they had like no bench, were deep, so 33 could either be super easy, or terribly not in cards.

If we are as good as last year, and have hard time meshing into anything, or if all new people have hard time meshing, and everyone is trying hard to become winning players, like if Burke and Favors are only two dudes not named Hayward who are locked in.....I expect plenty of surprise wins but nothing special, i could easily see repeat 25 wins. You know, like 30 games are with in 5, we are competing but not winning.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#29 » by JazzMatt13 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:06 pm

This is like the biggest mystery season of all time. Every team in East is in question, besides maybe Hornets and Wizards, but they both have a lot to prove. But over half the league is a big question mark. Which is probably cause of so many teams who ended up tanking, and all the big off season moves.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#30 » by Hoops Addict » Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:05 pm

Utah will pick between 8-10.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#31 » by JazzMatt13 » Tue Nov 18, 2014 5:23 am

I think I have been getting spoiled, and now my expectations have moved up. I remember I put this:

Floor: 25
Ceiling: 33
Guess: 30

My new:

I think I have been getting spoiled, and now my expectations haved moved up. I remember I put this:

Jazz predictions:
I said something like

Floor: 25
Ceiling: 33
Guess: 30
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#32 » by Amish Mafioso » Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:27 am

JazzMatt13 wrote:Whats your problem, i didn't say he is like Jerry Sloan, and i didn't say they had similarities.

Remember when Sloan left, had this group including Synder been the ones taking over, rather than Corbin and his screwed up group, it would have been a proper way to continue the Jazz legacy Sloan left.

The last couple years were crap, after decades of greatness with Sloan. Synder is not a Corbin, he is going to continue the greatness that Sloan built. If Corbin had this group, i doubt we would be 3-0.


I hate to nitpick, but the team Sloan walked away from was a mess. Corbin's mess was left to him by Jerry. You make it sound like everything was peachy until Corbin got ahold of the team. Not the case.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#33 » by Amish Mafioso » Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:28 am

JazzMatt13 wrote:Whats your problem, i didn't say he is like Jerry Sloan, and i didn't say they had similarities.

Remember when Sloan left, had this group including Synder been the ones taking over, rather than Corbin and his screwed up group, it would have been a proper way to continue the Jazz legacy Sloan left.

The last couple years were crap, after decades of greatness with Sloan. Synder is not a Corbin, he is going to continue the greatness that Sloan built. If Corbin had this group, i doubt we would be 3-0.


I hate to nitpick, but the team Sloan walked away from was a mess. Corbin's mess was left to him by Jerry. You make it sound like everything was peachy until Corbin got ahold of the team. Not the case.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#34 » by Hoops Addict » Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:15 am

My updated prediction is we miss the playoffs and pick 10th.

As of now we would pick 12th and NBAdraft.net says we take Willie-Stein from Kentucky.
Henzonja is at #18.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#35 » by Inigo Montoya » Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:02 am

I'll take Hezonja way before I'll pick WCS.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#36 » by MHSL82 » Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:38 am

5 of the 15 games we have played were against teams that have worse than a .500 record. We have five wins, but not against these teams per se.

30 of the remaining 67 games are against such teams.

No prediction here, just relaying information.
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#37 » by dautjazz » Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:17 pm

dautjazz wrote:Not really sure, but I'm LOVING the way the team has played in the preseason, I can really see this team surprise a lot of teams and come out of the gates strong, and play very well at home.

Low 30
Guess - 40
High - 45+

I can see us being the Suns of this year, taking the league by surprise. A lot of it has to do with the MUCH needed coaching change, which coincidentally is what pushed the Suns up too.

Points: Burks
Rebounds: Favors
Assists: Burke
Blocks: Favors
Steals: Burks or Hayward

Biggest Surprise - I think for the league it may be Gobert, then Burks.

Disappointment - Kanter. I think a new coach will have less patience, and Gobert is already better IMO, so I see him taking away a lot of minutes, not to mention Booker has showed up very well in the preseason, and if we need to space the floor Novak will get playing time too. I hope I'm wrong, but Kanter just might not turn out as good as we hoped.

Issue - Probably the lack of a star player, though I think Burks is about a season away from becoming an All-Star level playe, hopefully sooner!

Hayward's stats - I expect similar to last year, but with much better efficiency

Coach - I love what I've seen from the team this summer, so if it's any indication, I think he's doing a GREAT job. I like him a lot right now.


I may have been a little optimistic, after a slow start we wont get 40 wins, but I think we're going win around .450-.500 of the remaining games, which wouldn't be far off that 40 win pace. We'll definitely pass 30, I'll say 33-35 win range, which is still an 8-10 game improvement.

I was dead on about Gobert, he was the surprise, and is better than Kanter. Kanter is a disappointment to some extent, I don't think we really have disappointments this season except for maybe Burke (early on), or Burks because of his setback (injury). Kanter has been a little better on offense, but continues to disappoint on defense, but I think he's gotten a little better on defense.

I was wrong about Burks, Hayward is the player becoming a star player, our issue is probably more inexperience though. Next year I think we pass the hump to become a 40+ win team.

Was kind of wrong about Hayward, his numbers are definitely up, as a whole, but he has become more efficient.

Was right about the coach, he's really a great choice.

Oh and about the leaders, got ats, rbs, and stls right, got blks and pts wrong.

Overall, wish we were a little better, the playoff mix would be awesome, but I finally am rooting for wins, which is GREAT!
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#38 » by MHSL82 » Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:26 pm

dautjazz wrote:
dautjazz wrote:Not really sure, but I'm LOVING the way the team has played in the preseason, I can really see this team surprise a lot of teams and come out of the gates strong, and play very well at home.

Low 30
Guess - 40
High - 45+

I can see us being the Suns of this year, taking the league by surprise. A lot of it has to do with the MUCH needed coaching change, which coincidentally is what pushed the Suns up too.

Points: Burks
Rebounds: Favors
Assists: Burke
Blocks: Favors
Steals: Burks or Hayward

Biggest Surprise - I think for the league it may be Gobert, then Burks.

Disappointment - Kanter. I think a new coach will have less patience, and Gobert is already better IMO, so I see him taking away a lot of minutes, not to mention Booker has showed up very well in the preseason, and if we need to space the floor Novak will get playing time too. I hope I'm wrong, but Kanter just might not turn out as good as we hoped.

Issue - Probably the lack of a star player, though I think Burks is about a season away from becoming an All-Star level playe, hopefully sooner!

Hayward's stats - I expect similar to last year, but with much better efficiency

Coach - I love what I've seen from the team this summer, so if it's any indication, I think he's doing a GREAT job. I like him a lot right now.


I may have been a little optimistic, after a slow start we wont get 40 wins, but I think we're going win around .450-.500 of the remaining games, which wouldn't be far off that 40 win pace. We'll definitely pass 30, I'll say 33-35 win range, which is still an 8-10 game improvement.

I was dead on about Gobert, he was the surprise, and is better than Kanter. Kanter is a disappointment to some extent, I don't think we really have disappointments this season except for maybe Burke (early on), or Burks because of his setback (injury). Kanter has been a little better on offense, but continues to disappoint on defense, but I think he's gotten a little better on defense.

I was wrong about Burks, Hayward is the player becoming a star player, our issue is probably more inexperience though. Next year I think we pass the hump to become a 40+ win team.

Was kind of wrong about Hayward, his numbers are definitely up, as a whole, but he has become more efficient.

Was right about the coach, he's really a great choice.

Oh and about the leaders, got ats, rbs, and stls right, got blks and pts wrong.

Overall, wish we were a little better, the playoff mix would be awesome, but I finally am rooting for wins, which is GREAT!

Thanks for re-visiting this thread. I wish everyone would, but they might wait until the season's over? I'll bump it again at the end.

Do you think Snyder will burn out? How do you think he is with management? I have followed the Niners and seeing Harbaugh, it was either going to be burn-out or getting along with management. It was the latter. I don't see the former being an issue with Snyder, but will he burn out? Will he leave us? Does he like the building a team (but want to move on after we've been built)?
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Re: 214-15 Predictions 

Post#39 » by Joao Saraiva » Tue Mar 3, 2015 2:19 am

Joao Saraiva wrote:Wins

Floor: 25
Ceiling: 49
Guess: 44

Jazz MVP: Hayward
Offense: Hayward
Defense: Favors

Best Lineup: Gobert/Favors/Hayward/Burks/Burke

Scoring Leader: Burks, 19.7 PPG
Rebounds: Favors 10.2 RPG
Assists: Hayward 6.2
Blocks: Gobert with 1.5
Steals: Burks 1.3
TO: Burks 2.8

Biggest Surprise: Gobert taking the C spot from Kanter
Biggest Disappointment: Kanter - won't provide consistent basketball and won't live up to his potential. Hope I'm wrong.

Biggest issue heading into next off-season: Cap space. Other guys will want better deals watching how much Hayward is getting.

Hayward's Stats and Shooting: 16.6 PPG, 6.2 APG, 5.7 RPG, shooting 46% from the field, 37% from the 3

Thoughts on Coach Snyder: will be our coach for a lot of years and we'll be relevant in the NBA again with him.


So far I like my predictions.
Defensive MVP will obviously be Gobert! But I didn't know if he would have enough minutes. I'm glad he has.

So far: I was wrong about our leading scorer. I voted for Burks but unfortunately he almost couldn't contribute this season.
Rebounds: So far I am correct with Favors, but I feel Gobert will take that spot. I'm so glad with Gobert's play this season.
Assists: Trey Burke is 1st but Hayward is 2nd. Guess it wasn't a bad choice.
Blocks: Gobert will take it! Got one right!
Steals: Burks got injured and his per game is not even close.
TO: again, Burks is not playing.

Biggest surprise: Got it right with Gobert taking the C spot, and having a great season.
Biggest disappointment - I think Kanter ended up being it. We seem to be doing a lot better since he's gone.

Hayward's stats and shooting: Scoring more, rebounding and assisting less, shooting is actually pretty similar to my prediction.

I'm still liking Snyder a lot, so I'm really happy!

44 wins... doesn't seem like we'll get it but I wanted to be optimistic! But after that 9 L streak we're actually at 50% wins!
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Re: 2014-15 Predictions 

Post#40 » by dautjazz » Mon Mar 9, 2015 5:19 pm

dautjazz wrote:Not really sure, but I'm LOVING the way the team has played in the preseason, I can really see this team surprise a lot of teams and come out of the gates strong, and play very well at home.

Low 30
Guess - 40
High - 45+

I can see us being the Suns of this year, taking the league by surprise. A lot of it has to do with the MUCH needed coaching change, which coincidentally is what pushed the Suns up too.

Points: Burks
Rebounds: Favors
Assists: Burke
Blocks: Favors
Steals: Burks or Hayward

Biggest Surprise - I think for the league it may be Gobert, then Burks.

Disappointment - Kanter. I think a new coach will have less patience, and Gobert is already better IMO, so I see him taking away a lot of minutes, not to mention Booker has showed up very well in the preseason, and if we need to space the floor Novak will get playing time too. I hope I'm wrong, but Kanter just might not turn out as good as we hoped.

Issue - Probably the lack of a star player, though I think Burks is about a season away from becoming an All-Star level playe, hopefully sooner!

Hayward's stats - I expect similar to last year, but with much better efficiency

Coach - I love what I've seen from the team this summer, so if it's any indication, I think he's doing a GREAT job. I like him a lot right now.


Whoa I think I did pretty good. Ok I was wrong on points and blocks, but then I did pretty good. I predict we'll get 37+ wins, we have 11-12 games we should win, and we have already showed we can beat some playoff teams too. 11-9 easily, 40 wins is attainable still, but would be tough, as it would require us to go 14-6 in our last 20.

EDIT: Going to top my 40 win guess, but will probably fall short of 45-37 which I predicted on the high side, even though that's still attainable. Other than the Burks predictions, wow I got close.
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by gomeziee on 21 Jul 2013 00:53

im 20, and i did grow up watching MJ play in the 90's.

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