CBS Sports: Jazz Starters Rank #5, Bench Ranks #1.

[Stern Fixer]

Vegas books go off of what people are betting and a lot of casual fans bet, not the most reliable source for expectation

Yep, this. Book just represents what the average gambler thinks, whereas the media represents what the average "person paid to write about the team and tries to balance click-bait and preserving access" thinks.

The former is likely to underrate the team because they are a small market without much coverage until recently, the latter is often guilty of hyperbole to get eyeballs now and in the future. That means making the most audacious predictions that you can reasonable defend.

Good points fellas, and it is tempting to bet the over. Unfortunately, future's betting is not all that attractive as it's always like -130, so you have to lay $130 to win a hundred regardless which way you bet it. (I did it two years ago when the mark was like 28 games and won.)

Still, with great teams with great benches like San Antonio, Golden State and Cleveland, heck even outliers like Denver, Minnesota, Boston and New York have great benches now - hard to believe we took #1 in that category. Can't say I'm not swelling up with pride thinking about it though.

[laika]

I think the starter ranking is fairly accurate. Exum/Hood/Hayward/Favors/Gobert played quite well in the limited time they were together. Last year Mack/Hood/Hayward/Favors/Gobert was really good.

The bench is probably not #1 though. It's hard to say since they haven't played much together, but top 10 is probably accurate.

This could be the Jazz' year to break out. In theory we could have a top 5 team if everything goes well.

[sipclip]

I think the starter ranking is fairly accurate. Exum/Hood/Hayward/Favors/Gobert played quite well in the limited time they were together. Last year Mack/Hood/Hayward/Favors/Gobert was really good.

The bench is probably not #1 though. It's hard to say since they haven't played much together, but top 10 is probably accurate.

This could be the Jazz' year to break out. In theory we could have a top 5 team if everything goes well.

We are obviously speculating right now but the way I look at it Mack is one of the best backup pg's, Alec is one of the best backup sg's, Johnson is one of the best backup sf's and Lyles is turning into one of the better outside shooting bigs in this league. That alone makes us one of the best benches in the nba. That isn't even counting Diaw, Exum and Withey who should all be some of the better backup players in the league at their respective positions.

[dalton749]

Should be an excellent defensive team, but it'll come down to the offence, which will need somebody to step up and make everything easier for the role players.

My pick to exceed expectations like Toronto last year, 53 wins.

[KqWIN]

I think we'll finish 4th-5th in the West. I think that OKC might be a little bit ahead of us with good health, but an injury to Westbrook would be devastating. If he can play 3000 minutes this season I'd give them the 4th spot.

[DiscoLives4ever]

At this point I'm kind of thinking we will finish in the 4-6 range and be the team that 3-5 points to and says, "look how good our season was, we outperformed the Jazz who people were predicting to be top 3 in the West".

I guess what I'm trying to say is that we will be good enough that these predictions will appear to have been quite plausible, even if ultimately optimistic.

[millslapper]

The Jazz are a dark horse, which everybody has on his list. Which is always dangerous because you are not a dark horse anymore. So a season can become a disappointment, even if it is an success. Beware!

(a real darkhorse: the blazers last year)

[russnumber3]

"Alec Burks is Houdini around the rim." Wonder who they've been talking to?

Man, I hate Boler as the voice of the Jazz.

[stitches]

"Alec Burks is Houdini around the rim." Wonder who they've been talking to?

Man, I hate Boler as the voice of the Jazz.

I am not the biggest Boler & Harpring fan, but the Houdini moniker I actually love.

[Daddy 801]

"Alec Burks is Houdini around the rim." Wonder who they've been talking to?

Man, I hate Boler as the voice of the Jazz.

I am not the biggest Boler & Harpring fan, but the Houdini moniker I actually love.

The bar always has music on so I don't hear him. But when I mea Boler and Boone at the Dante draft I went away thinking Boone was cool as hell and Boler was trying way to hard to keep up some douche image. He was kind enough to talk to us and shoot the ****, he just gave off a "I'm the cool guy" vibe I don't appreciate in humans.

[pickIBL]

The Jazz are dangerous this year. I see no reason not to be optimistic. The FO produced this summer. The team is deep and can get along in the season if someone goes down. The real questions moving forward center mainly around Hood and Exum. If Hood makes a big step forward from where he is currently that would be a bid deal. If Exum turns into Penny 2.0... same thing. We look like a playoff team with enough up and comers to push the Jazz into contention at some point.

[KqWIN]

The Jazz are dangerous this year. I see no reason not to be optimistic.

Hard to trust this team after last season's choke fest, but yeah, they look great on paper. Top 5 potential as it is, maybe even more if we get a breakout season from a player or two.

[DelaneyRudd]

I think the numbers they use skew in favor of teams like the Jazz with players that took their opportunities during times of injury but that's not a bad thing. Trey Lyles might be a complete unknown without the injuries but at least we know he's a real player. I'm just glad I can root for team France in the olympics before Football and Basketball gets going again.

[Winglish]

The Jazz are dangerous this year. I see no reason not to be optimistic. The FO produced this summer. The team is deep and can get along in the season if someone goes down. The real questions moving forward center mainly around Hood and Exum. If Hood makes a big step forward from where he is currently that would be a bid deal. If Exum turns into Penny 2.0... same thing. We look like a playoff team with enough up and comers to push the Jazz into contention at some point.

OMG, that's a big if! But what IF? Geez, the Jazz would be fantastic! [insert praying guy emoji]

[Johnstarks]

I just think favors/gobert is awfully limiting because they don't shoot 3s. I think you need to play Lyles and goBert together instead

The problem with guys like favors is even if they are superior players to stretch 4s like marvin williams or harrison barnes is that they make it harder for the rest of your offense to function. These type of players are just a tough fit in the modern nba. He's a good player it's just not shooting pf are going the way of the fullback in nfl. That's why griffin and faried are constantly on the trade block as well

If George hill has a bounce back year you could be good but I think more likely this is a 45-48 win team. #1 bench seems kinda absurd. Lyles isn't there yet and exum and burcs are both question marks

[goober]

Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think Favors crippled the offense, if anyone crippled the offense, it's the dude who can't even catch a basketball.

[sipclip]

#1 bench seems kinda absurd. Lyles isn't there yet and exum and burcs are both question marks

I'm not sure why you would think that is absurd. Mack is one of the best backup pg's in the league. Burks is one of the best backups sg's. Johnson of the best backup sf's. Lyles while not a finished product is definitely a solid stretch 4. Diaw is a great backup big and Withey is one of the better backup centers in the league. That isn't even mentioning Exum who could be really good. Who do you think has a better bench?

[Johnstarks]

#1 bench seems kinda absurd. Lyles isn't there yet and exum and burcs are both question marks

I'm not sure why you would think that is absurd. Mack is one of the best backup pg's in the league. Burks is one of the best backups sg's. Johnson of the best backup sf's. Lyles while not a finished product is definitely a solid stretch 4. Diaw is a great backup big and Withey is one of the better backup centers in the league. That isn't even mentioning Exum who could be really good. Who do you think has a better bench?

Mack was arguably the worst player in the entire nba prior to the jazz trade so I'm gonna need more than 25 games before I rank him as the best backup pg in the league. Statistically he was ranked dead last according to a few metrics.

Ido like exam and Burks to register as net positive players first before I crown the jazz best bench in the league. It's definitely got a lot of potential but a little early to anoint best bench.


Now, when evaluating benches I think my parameters are a little different than that articles. I'm not lining them up to play 5 on 5 vs the MONSTARS. I'm thinking how does this bench fill roles in a playoff series when minutes are scarce and efficient production is at a premium.

You want a well rounded bench that complements your roster and adequately fills in for a suspension, injury, foul trouble, off performance, or optimizes a lineup vs a specific opponent or matchup.

So I don't care as much about 10th man vs 10th man since 90% of your bench production will come down to your 6th thru 8th man in the playoffs when rotations shorten. That's where teams like the Pistons have it wrong they went all pokemon and tried to collect them all instead of landing 1-2 great bench players.

I'd like to see a bench that addresses the following in order of importance:

1) a guy who can handle playmaking and initiate offense when the lead guard sits
2) big man who can handle smaller lineups and moves well enough laterally to defend the pnr
3) 3pt shooters
4) defensive stoppers
5) scorers


#1 is the most important which is why you see guys like ginobili, harden, and to a lesser extent iggy sent to the bench so they can essentially function as a backup pg by running the offense when the lead guard sits. You don't want to go through a cold stretch in the dead zone near end 1q/3q and beginning of 2q/4q.

#2 is important because you don't want a traditional big man who comes in and compromises your defense immediately. Look at how a guy like kanter can swing a series when he comes in and immediately gives up a barrage of open 3 pointers.

#3) 3 pt shooting should be obvious you want guys who can space the floor effectively so you can let your best offensively talent run the show while other starters rest.

#4) It's nice to have the option to throw a one dimensional defender in there to change up looks if an opponent is hot or at the end of quarters and buy minutes for your starters

#5) Scoring should typically be the least important as they just aren't dependable enough and often can't get their shots vs the increased defensive focus in the playoffs

It's a little hard to evaluate benches this early since so many of them got raided but just as an example I'd rather have gsw bench with iggy, livingston, west on it than the entire collection of scrubs Detroit put together. I think denver bench is pretty loaded. I really like simmons/anderson to break out in sas this year. Portland has a pretty deep bench of nba talent. Utah certainly has potential. 76ers could be the best bench in the league depending on how nba ready everyone is. Celtics have a great regu large season lineup bench but I'm not sure it's a playoff bench.

Ultimately, id probably take portland or golden state for proven But I bet sas ends up in the top 3 I'm pretty high on anderson and simmons this year they look ready to breakout as stars

[KqWIN]

I think it's fair to say that there are question marks with our bench. Exum and Burks have missed a lot of time with injuries, and there were question marks about their games even before they were injured. Joe and Diaw are very old, and Trey is just a second year player. It's a very good bench group in theory, but nothing is a guarantee. I think we should have all learned that from last season.

As Johnstarks was saying, you shouldn't line up benches 5v5 to determine who has the bench. The teams that got the most out of their bench did it by combining 3-4 bench players with 1-2 starters. This is the real strength of the our bench because all 5 of our starters are good enough to play big minutes. We can stagger Favors and Gobert if we want too, same goes for Hayward/Hood/Hill. There doesn't have to be a time when we go without a starter.

I sound like a broken record at this point, but so much of our success will depend on how Quin performs. He's going to need to build lineups and rotations that work and he's going to have to keep the team together if someone isn't getting the minutes they want. From the outside it's seems like he has a firm hold on the locker room, I'm not worried about that. I'm worried that he will pick the right combination of players when it's time to win because he struggled with that last season.

[Johnstarks]

I do like that Joe johnson pick up. He had his way playing the 4 vs charlotte in the opening round. If Lyles is still not good enough to defend this year I could see Joe getting a lot of minutes at pf when you go small. I think he'd fit well with goBert as well.

The jazz have a ton of talent. I think they along with denver are definitely the teams on the rise in the west this year. Everyone keeps picking Minnesota for some reason but they seem more hype than susbtance while the jazz and nuggets look prime to rise.

Don't see how the jazz can keep all these guys though, going to be a very expensive team