RealGM

With the Jazz trying to tank, the draft is a lot more relevant again. There's a clear top 8 right now.

Tier 1 (likely star or possible superstar):
No one

Tier 2 (possible star):

Cody Williams (SF/PF, big ball handler, needs to get a lot more athletic, skills aren't great, but he's huge and can dribble)

Tier 3 (possible role player)

Zaccharie Risacher (SF/PF, 3D guy with enough ball handling to beat closeouts, very unathletic so likely no star potential on either end, plays very hard, Otto Porter Jr like)

Ron Holland (SF, very weird prospect, plays hard and should be good defensively, has put up numbers largely from iso drives to the basket but none of it looks like it will translate, horrible shooter currently)

Reed Sheppard (PG, classic 3D guy, but is so tiny that he has to play PG and it makes unclear how much his defense will transfer)

Rob Dillingham (PG, playing amazing this year, but his 3P% is a massive jump over his HS years where he shot 30% and he may be a fluke, so tiny that he will be destroyed in the postseason on defense)

Alexandre Sarr (C, he's like Nic Claxton)

JaKobe Walter (SG, very good shooter off motion, really good at getting to the line, has nothing else good about his game)

Nikola Topic (PG, really big PG, not sure he's athletic or skilled enough to be a star)

Dropping Cody Williams down a lot, he got scouted and he's been getting destroyed.

Now everyone is tier 3 and the board probably goes

1. Risacher
2. Dillingham
3. Holland
4. Cody Williams
5. Sarr
6. Flip
7. Topic
8. Walter
9. Shepard

Risacher is probably the only guy who would go top 5 in a normal class. Dillingham and Cody Williams would absolutely go in the teens in a normal class. This draft really sucks.

Looks like the draft is back on the menu. I like Topic, Williams, Sarr and Risacher as the top 4 picks. In the grand scheme of things, I think Topic, Williams and Dillingham have at least some All Star potential.

I see Risacher as a high-end complementary player in the 3D wing mold. I like him, but I'm not sure he's good enough to be a guy your team can really play through.

Holland has the physical tools to build on, but shooting is going to make or break his career. He's got a ways to go.

Buzelis' best attributes at the NBA level are probably his handle and passing, making him a potential secondary initiator. I wouldn't mind seeing the Jazz pick him up if we're drafting in the 8-10 range. I think he plays at the 3.

Tidjane Salaun is long and bouncy. He has confidence in his jumper and probably settles a bit too much, but he attacks open lanes. I think he's toolsy enough to draft and try to develop.

Rob Dillingham is going to be good. I'm not sure if he's the archetype the Jazz want to draft, but on paper he's right there with Darius Garland.

I'm intrigued by Kyshawn George from Miami and might take him as high as #10 in this iffy draft.

In terms of fit, Dillingham and Sheppard definitely can't play with Keyonte and Sarr and Flip definitely can't play with Kessler. The fit of the other players (at their hypothetical ceiling) is fine though not amazing. Cody Williams and Risacher are natural PFs and Topic is a natural PG, but Markkanen could play SF I guess and Topic could play SG I guess. Obviously Cody Williams or Risacher at PF would block Taylor Hendricks from ever becoming a starter if they become good though.

The fit probably doesn't matter that much though as it's unlikely most of these guys (or the young players on the roster) are important enough to be long-term "you cannot trade" pieces. Cody Williams and Flip are the only guys with the upside to be a #2 on a good to great team and neither guy is likely to hit that ceiling at all. Hendricks and George have the ceilings of a #4 on a great team (Kessler maybe a 5th best guy on a good team) and it's not like all of these guys will hit their ceilings or come close. Risacher is likely to hit his ceiling (easily the likeliest in the draft), but his ceiling is like... Otto Porter Jr, so a #4 on a good team.

The ceilings of each guy in this draft are probably

Risacher: Otto Porter Jr (high likelihood of hitting this ceiling)
Dillingham: Poor Man's Trae Young
Holland: Bigger Royce O'Neale
Cody Williams: Pascal Siakam (low likelihood of hitting this ceiling)
Sarr: Nic Claxton
Flip: Shorter Sabonis with the ability to shoot (low likelihood of hitting this ceiling)
Topic: Not sure...
JaKobe: KCP
Sheppard: Short Lonzo Ball

Sarr is an interesting fit with Hendricks as it gets the Jazz 40% of the way to being able to play a switch 5 lineup, but... then you still need three more elite athletes with a lot of size. And those perimeter players need to include two stars on offense because Hendricks and Sarr have little to no talent on offense. You're like 60% of the way there if you think Markkanen can play in a switch 5 defense.

HadAnEffectHere wrote:In terms of fit, Dillingham and Sheppard definitely can't play with Keyonte and Sarr and Flip definitely can't play with Kessler. The fit of the other players (at their hypothetical ceiling) is fine though not amazing. Cody Williams and Risacher are natural PFs and Topic is a natural PG, but Markkanen could play SF I guess and Topic could play SG I guess. Obviously Cody Williams or Risacher at PF would block Taylor Hendricks from ever becoming a starter if they become good though.

The fit probably doesn't matter that much though as it's unlikely most of these guys (or the young players on the roster) are important enough to be long-term "you cannot trade" pieces. Cody Williams and Flip are the only guys with the upside to be a #2 on a good to great team and neither guy is likely to hit that ceiling at all. Hendricks and George have the ceilings of a #4 on a great team (Kessler maybe a 5th best guy on a good team) and it's not like all of these guys will hit their ceilings or come close. Risacher is likely to hit his ceiling (easily the likeliest in the draft), but his ceiling is like... Otto Porter Jr, so a #4 on a good team.

The ceilings of each guy in this draft are probably

Risacher: Otto Porter Jr (high likelihood of hitting this ceiling)
Dillingham: Poor Man's Trae Young
Holland: Bigger Royce O'Neale
Cody Williams: Pascal Siakam (low likelihood of hitting this ceiling)
Sarr: Nic Claxton
Flip: Shorter Sabonis with the ability to shoot (low likelihood of hitting this ceiling)
Topic: Not sure...
JaKobe: KCP
Sheppard: Short Lonzo Ball

Sarr is an interesting fit with Hendricks as it gets the Jazz 40% of the way to being able to play a switch 5 lineup, but... then you still need three more elite athletes with a lot of size. And those perimeter players need to include two stars on offense because Hendricks and Sarr have little to no talent on offense. You're like 60% of the way there if you think Markkanen can play in a switch 5 defense.

Williams looks like he'll be fine at the 3 or 4 to me. I think he and Lauri could be nice with each other. I don't love the fit of Sarr with Kessler and Lauri, replicates too much of the John Collins issue on offense. But, I'd be willing to move off Kessler if we were high on Sarr. With where we are...imo...likely to pick, I'd be looking at Furphy (really convinced hell be a valuable roleplayer), Saluan, maybe Holland/Buzelis/Rissacher if they drop assuming we pick 8 to 10). If the lottery gods smile upon us, I'd honestly trade down since the top seems somewhat flat.

Saluan is absolutely terrible at basketball, easily the worst player I've watched this year and isn't even explosive.

All of his fundamentals on defense are just trash, he has no idea where to be or how to move his feet.

HadAnEffectHere wrote:Saluan is absolutely terrible at basketball, easily the worst player I've watched this year and isn't even explosive.

All of his fundamentals on defense are just trash, he has no idea where to be or how to move his feet.

He's really raw and lost defensively but has a wonderful stroke, great end to end speed, and I think is developing skills reasonably quickly. I imagine if he reaches his potential he ends up something like Kuzma with worse passing but hopefully better defense. I'm not saying I love him, just that mid/late lottery he'd be a guy I consider. If Furphy is there, though, I take him over Saluan 10/10 times.

He is also going to be one of the two youngest players in the draft. Idk if you told me that a raw prospect had an unanticipated development curve into a star, I'd bet on him. That's not a safe bet, though.

I don't use to write in this thread since I don't watch any NCAA game, so I don't have any opinion in prospects, but I think Jazz should draft with their later picks acquired recently Juan Núñez.
The kid has played with Spanish NT and is a real deal as PG.

At this point, I'm all but expecting the Jazz to draft Filipowski at #10 to be their new playmaking big. He's basically the Kelly Olynyk of this draft, short wingspan and all.

Catchall wrote:At this point, I'm all but expecting the Jazz to draft Filipowski at #10 to be their new playmaking big. He's basically the Kelly Olynyk of this draft, short wingspan and all.

Flip has one of the higher ceilings in the draft, but he's a below average shooter who needs to become an elite one to be good in the NBA and he cannot play with John Collins or Walker Kessler at all so he would never get on the court until one or both of those guys were traded.

I will say that hypothetical Flip is a great fit with hypothetical Taylor Hendricks, but Flip means the Jazz have to trade John Collins this offseason (and would likely need to attach seconds to dump him) and the Jazz would have to trade Walker Kessler very soon as well unless Flip busts.

Jazz likely will pick 9th or 10th?

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/ronald-holland/

If then Jazz get the 26th pick from Toronto, should we pick Bradshaw?

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/aaron-bradshaw/

Hoops Addict wrote:If then Jazz get the 26th pick from Toronto, should we pick Bradshaw?

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/aaron-bradshaw/

He's one of the worst players in college basketball and will not declare because he would go undrafted.

Hoops Addict wrote:Jazz likely will pick 9th or 10th?

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/ronald-holland/

Ron Holland is basically the ideal outcome for the Jazz if they pick 9th or 10th. If he can shoot >=37% from open spotup threes on fairly high volume, he could be a good third best player on a team. Has some intriguing synergy with Taylor Hendricks as well as Holland will eventually be strong enough to defend centers, but is too short to block shots, but could be a bench 5 with Taylor Hendricks playing PF.

HadAnEffectHere wrote:

Catchall wrote:At this point, I'm all but expecting the Jazz to draft Filipowski at #10 to be their new playmaking big. He's basically the Kelly Olynyk of this draft, short wingspan and all.

Flip has one of the higher ceilings in the draft, but he's a below average shooter who needs to become an elite one to be good in the NBA and he cannot play with John Collins or Walker Kessler at all so he would never get on the court until one or both of those guys were traded.

I will say that hypothetical Flip is a great fit with hypothetical Taylor Hendricks, but Flip means the Jazz have to trade John Collins this offseason (and would likely need to attach seconds to dump him) and the Jazz would have to trade Walker Kessler very soon as well unless Flip busts.

Filipowski has improved his shooting this year, at least from distance, and I'd expect him to become an average shooter in the league. I'm just not convinced right now that Kessler is the type of 5 the Jazz really want to build around. It seems they want to space the floor so their guards can attack the paint more easily. The problem right now is that without Kessler on the floor, the Jazz's interior defense is near the worst in the league. I think that Filipowski can be a better defender than Olynyk and can earn more minutes that way.

No one cares really who can and cannot play with John Collins. I wouldn't expect Collins to be a long-term consideration for the Jazz.

I also think that Tyler Smith would be a reasonable pick as a stretch-5, but the Jazz are so short on playmaking that I think Filipowski would hold a bit more appeal. It wouldn't surprise me if Kessler continues to play backup minutes, like he has in the past several games. I could also see him being moved eventually, simply due to his offensive limitations.

Hoops Addict wrote:Jazz likely will pick 9th or 10th?

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/ronald-holland/

I wouldn't trust NBADraft.net as a go-to source, but there is a possibility that Ron Holland could slip into the Jazz's draft range. If that's the case, I'd draft him, as his defensive playmaking and self-creation in the half-court would add a lot to the Jazz's current rotation. He just needs to knock down enough of his shots. If Jaylen Brown and Nas Little can get there, you'd hope that Holland can get there eventually too.

Flip went up to like 34-35% from three this year, but his FT% has tanked and suggests his 3P% is just fake. He needs to be a really good shooter in the NBA and 65% from the line this year makes me so uneasy.

I have him top 5 just because I hate all the players in this draft though.

Keep an eye on Kyshawn George, a big guard from Miami, to be a riser on draft boards. He's 6'8", long, can handle with either hand, makes passes over the top of the defense, and knocks down 3s out to about 27 feet. He's also a pretty solid positional defender. He needs to show more aggressiveness getting downhill, but that might come with NBA spacing.

Jusuf Nurkic has career averages of 12 pts, 9 rebs, and about 2.5 asts. I could see Filipowski having that level of impact with a few more passes and a few more 3s depending on how he's used.