Conference predictions?

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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#21 » by bondom34 » Sat Oct 25, 2014 6:58 am

Bravenewworld wrote:When you have to ignore the rest of advanced statistics, regular statistics and then equal comparisons in the league so that you can tout one single relatively flawed and irrelevant ultra defined yet vague stat... yah, that's nit picking man.

I don't. Jennings is poor in:
True shooting
D Rating
Meh O Rating
RAPM
RPM
WS/48
PER
and on and on and on....
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#22 » by Bravenewworld » Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:06 am

bondom34 wrote:
Bravenewworld wrote:When you have to ignore the rest of advanced statistics, regular statistics and then equal comparisons in the league so that you can tout one single relatively flawed and irrelevant ultra defined yet vague stat... yah, that's nit picking man.

I don't. Jennings is poor in:
True shooting
D Rating
Meh O Rating
RAPM
RPM
WS/48
PER
and on and on and on....


Except for none of those are really bad for a 25 or younger player are they? Unless you are holding the standard to be CP3 or Westbrook.
Otherwise they are fine. Not great, but not bad.
Except defense, defense is pretty bad. But the rest of its just average for a typical average guard.

And btw my Jeric point is simply that you can manipulate stats however you want.
I dont remember the exact year, i think it was 05, but we could cite a 7 game stretch where he averaged something like 19ppg, 6rpg, 4apg, some crap like that. Something not at all representative of him as a player as a whole, but because of how "nit picky" people can be with stats you can create this entirely different player. And its something we see all the time, including right now.
Hes not a horrible player, hes average, you literally have to ignore the good and simply highlight the bad to suggest otherwise. Which again, is the definition of nit picking.

ANYWAY, who cares.
We pretend he does not work out (not sure why. young guy, blank slate, Stan Van Gundy a top 3 coach in the NBA right now) then we move on to Meeks and throw Jennings to the bench. We know Meeks can control the ball enough in a Van Gundy scheme. If he can do it in the triangle and then with Brown's horrific offense, he can do it with Gundy.
No matter how you cut it Detroit is a greater team then at least 3 or 4 other playoff bound teams.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#23 » by bondom34 » Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:08 am

Bravenewworld wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Bravenewworld wrote:When you have to ignore the rest of advanced statistics, regular statistics and then equal comparisons in the league so that you can tout one single relatively flawed and irrelevant ultra defined yet vague stat... yah, that's nit picking man.

I don't. Jennings is poor in:
True shooting
D Rating
Meh O Rating
RAPM
RPM
WS/48
PER
and on and on and on....


Except for none of those are really bad for a 25 or younger player are they? Unless you are holding the standard to be CP3 or Westbrook.
Otherwise they are fine. Not great, but not bad.
Except defense, defense is pretty bad. But the rest of its just average for a typical average guard.

And btw my Jeric point is simply that you can manipulate stats however you want.
I dont remember the exact year, i think it was 05, but we could cite a 7 game stretch where he averaged something like 19ppg, 6rpg, 4apg, some crap like that. Something not at all representative of him as a player as a whole, but because of how "nit picky" people can be with stats you can create this entirely different player. And its something we see all the time, including right now.
Hes not a horrible player, hes average, you literally have to ignore the good and simply highlight the bad to suggest otherwise. Which again, is the definition of nit picking.

ANYWAY, who cares.
We pretend he does not work out (not sure why. young guy, blank slate, Stan Van Gundy a top 3 coach in the NBA right now) then we move on to Meeks and throw Jennings to the bench. We know Meeks can control the ball enough in a Van Gundy scheme. If he can do it in the triangle and then with Brown's horrific offense, he can do it with Gundy.
No matter how you cut it Detroit is a greater team then at least 3 or 4 other playoff bound teams.

I have no response, other than to say you are completely entitled to your opinion. Mine is very different, but that's okay.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#24 » by Bravenewworld » Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:09 am

This is something that irritates me about the internet age of sports.

First, people have zero patients to allow for development.

Second, people have these completely unrealistic expectations where a "bust" is a 2nd pick that "only" averages 17 and 7 their first year.

Third, there are now so many statistics that anything you want can be put forward because it almost always involves intentionally leaving out valuable information.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#25 » by Bravenewworld » Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:11 am

bondom34 wrote:I have no response, other than to say you are completely entitled to your opinion. Mine is very different, but that's okay.


All i ask is you dont say a player sucks when to do so you have to leave out half the facts.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#26 » by bondom34 » Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:13 am

Bravenewworld wrote:
bondom34 wrote:I have no response, other than to say you are completely entitled to your opinion. Mine is very different, but that's okay.


All i ask is you dont say a player sucks when to do so you have to leave out half the facts.

I didn't. And you didn't prove your point either.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#27 » by Thunderhead » Sat Oct 25, 2014 1:54 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
Bravenewworld wrote:You really have Detroit out of it?

For the start of the season the line up and rotation will be:
PG- Brandon Jennings - Jodie Meeks
SG- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Jodie Meeks
SF- Kyle Singler - Caron Butler - Josh Smith
PF- Greg Monroe - Josh Smith
C- Andre Drummond - Aaron Gray


Meeks it out until January with a fractured back. They are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA. Last year they were 20th in FG%, 29th in 3pt% and last in FT%.


This is the problem I see with Detroit, far more than Jennings. They have no three point shooting to surround those bigs, who are gonna be/are good.

It will be interesting to see the style of ball Stan plays with this line-up, and I do think also, that he will make a big diff. Mo Cheeks is an asst coach with a narrow defined role, how he got hired as a HC again, is amazing.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#28 » by Thunderhead » Sat Oct 25, 2014 2:14 pm

Back to the OP ...........

I like Chicago to win the East, there's much three point shooting in that offense now.

Then maybe ...

2. Cavs - I think the wild card here, is how Kyrie meshes with Lebron, he's saying all the right things now, lets see what it looks like come All Star break

3. Raptors - I really like this team, they will be a defensive team on a par with the Bulls. It would not surprise me if they won the East.

4. Wizards - I like adding vets Miller and Pierce.

5. Hawks - If Horford stays healthy.

With the last three spots , going in any order , to one of the four teams ..... Charlotte, Knicks, Detroit, Nets .
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#29 » by Bravenewworld » Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:14 pm

IMO the Raptors took major advantage of the East being so bad last year and took a spot that was completely unrepresentative of their roster, coaching and abilities. With teams healthy and more teams more "complete" who were in the play-offs last season, i have a really hard time seeing this team being in the playoffs at all. They have two options, no defense, mediocre coaching, their best big should be a second string on another team, they added no one of value, etc. etc. etc.

Wizards losing Ariza is tragic, Pierce cant make up for that defensive loss, not at his age.

And as mentioned before, im pretty sure the Hawks are tanking. Even a healthy team with dreams of playoffs would not be shopping Al and would not have made that Thabo signing.

My biggest question is with the Bucks. I think they MIGHT have the ability to slide into that 8th seed. Its a very talented roster with players at every position, Kidd was a good coach last season (for his first year) and imo i think the reports were right about him simply having issues with vets. This team is much younger and will fall in line with him.
Orlando is a big question too. If Vaughn is a decent coach and was simply working on the idea of tanking the past two seasons but this season decides to turn it up (a bunch of if's), this could be another potential 8/9 seed.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#30 » by Thunderhead » Sun Oct 26, 2014 12:45 am

I like the Raptors as a defensive team , I have much respect for Dwane Casey. He devised the defense that took the Mavs to the 2011 championship .......... and I think defense wins in the NBA.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#31 » by Bravenewworld » Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:53 am

Great article from the Detroit Free Press that focuses on Josh Smith and Stan coming to an understanding of what Josh is to do. So it looks like Detroit will have old Smith, not shooting 3s and playing defense at the 4 and 3. Another reason for Detroit to not only be in the top 8, but probably top 5. Another reason to also reasonably suggest that if Stan can deal with him (and all those Orlando players), he can mold Mr.Jennings.

.........One thing not on the list is three-pointers. He doesn't need to shoot many this season.

"I think Josh has a very good understanding of the shots he needs to shoot that are not only best for him, but best for our team,'' Van Gundy said........

(cont. in link)
http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nba/p ... /17303577/


For Piston fans that is a quote of hope, lmao.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#32 » by Bravenewworld » Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:58 am

Thunderhead wrote:I like the Raptors as a defensive team , I have much respect for Dwane Casey. He devised the defense that took the Mavs to the 2011 championship .......... and I think defense wins in the NBA.


..........So are you suggesting the Raptors are going to win a title? In the finals? In the ECFs? Better then Bulls, Cavs, Heat, Detroit, Wizards, Nets, Knicks and HornetCats?
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#33 » by bondom34 » Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:59 am

Well, there's also this:

http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2014/10/2 ... -takeaways

2) The New Josh Smith is as Bad as the Old Josh Smith

Fewer threes, more long twos. More passes, more turnovers. In total, Smith was the most damaging offensive player on Detroit's preseason roster. Just like the 2013-14 regular season. Let's take a closer look.

Over the last three seasons, Josh Smith has attempted at least 41% of his shots from 16-feet out, both long two and three combined. No matter how many threes he shoots, a lot or a little, that number holds true. The same was the case in the 2014 preseason. Smith reduced his three point attempts dramatically, but just as dramatically increased the amount of long twos he attempted. Don't just take my word for it, enjoy this magnificent visual from DBB reader ghost of Dumars.

According to TS%, Josh Smith managed to shoot worse in the 2014 preseason than he did in 2013-14. He recorded a 0.457 TS% this month compared to a 0.463 TS% last season.

Who cares, right? It's just the preseason.

The problem is that instead of seeing a shred of evidence that Smith's poor shooting can be contained or improved, it was effectively worse. Instead of encouragement, this preseason only showed an unfortunate step backwards.

But those assists! Smith's passing made a huge difference in the preseason.

Only it didn't. Smith's combined missed shots and turnovers negated any positive contribution from his passes. Here's the rub. Thanks in part to those passes, Smith was once again the highest usage player in the rotation. And he was the most damaging offensive force when on court. Smith sported a team-worst offensive rating of 89.3. Compare that to the team's other power forward, Greg Monroe, whose offensive rating was a blinding 24 points higher. That brings me to my next takeaway.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#34 » by Bravenewworld » Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:27 am

Yah, there are actually a lot of people (mainly Detroit fans) who feel Monroe should be starting over Smith so they attempt to bring up stupid things like preseasons bs. Which is realllllllly pointless when it comes to already established players to the team. There's kind of a reason why you never hear "Lebron went 1 for 9 in a preseason game, must be a bad player! Start Marion!". We can especially ignore the silly obscure stats that are questionable in the regular season, let alone how pointless they are in the pre.

I actually agree Monroe is the future PF for this team, but not this season and probably not next. He is far more raw on the offensive end and his defense needs improvement. Right now, with Smith on the team, Monroe is actually a better fit as a back up because he is a far better 4/5 then Smith is. Smith would work best as a back up 3/4.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#35 » by Thunderhead » Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:21 pm

Bravenewworld wrote:
Thunderhead wrote:I like the Raptors as a defensive team , I have much respect for Dwane Casey. He devised the defense that took the Mavs to the 2011 championship .......... and I think defense wins in the NBA.


..........So are you suggesting the Raptors are going to win a title? In the finals? In the ECFs? Better then Bulls, Cavs, Heat, Detroit, Wizards, Nets, Knicks and HornetCats?



I see two exceptional teams in the East, then a drop off with the Raptors as the third best team.

But the caveat there , is the Cavs and whether they can live up to the hype. There's a school of thought, that the Cavs won't have the problem learning to play together, that the Heat had in the first year of LBJ/Bosh/Wade, because Love fits much better with Lebron. But I'm not sure how Kyrie fits with Lebron, my opinion is far from expert, but it appears to me that Kyrie needs the ball and Lebron needs the ball, and while that may be extremely simple, I think maybe the hype of the Cavs is over looking this item.

I think the Cavs are gonna have to prove it on the court, before they get awared the East title.

Nets, Knicks, Hornets, Det .............. not this year. And I'm not sure the Nets won't implode under Lionel Hollins, there's gonna be some adjustment involved in that change.

The Heat, well, that's entirely on DWade staying healthy, ya wanna bet on that ? I would not put a lot of money on that .

Wizards are a wild card, they could be the third best team in the East, I like adding Miller and Pierce.

But the Bulls are the cream of the crop, IMO, it will take injuries to the Bulls for any other team to challenge. Adding DRose, Gasol and the three pt shooting could be all they need, to go along with Thibs defense, to dominate the East.

And if they have injuries, then I would not be surprised to see the Raptors win the East.

That's pretty much how I arrive at that.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#36 » by bondom34 » Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:55 pm

Yeah, the Raptors are very very good. Pretty clear (if healthy) above NY/BKN, Detroit, Charlotte, Indy, Washington, Miami, and the rest other than the Cavs/Bulls.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#37 » by Kizz Fastfists » Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:04 pm

Bravenewworld wrote:I actually agree Monroe is the future PF for this team, but not this season and probably not next. He is far more raw on the offensive end and his defense needs improvement. Right now, with Smith on the team, Monroe is actually a better fit as a back up because he is a far better 4/5 then Smith is. Smith would work best as a back up 3/4.


Monroe is leaving Detroit after this season if they do not trade him sooner. He took the QO instead of signing a long-term deal with them so he could leave. He was never willing to sign an offer sheet for another team to give Detroit the option to match. His agent looked into S&T deals but none were worked out. Monroe wants to play center not PF. He wants to live in the paint and he is good enough to do that for most teams. Detroit having Drummond makes them one of the exceptions.
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Re: Conference predictions? 

Post#38 » by Bravenewworld » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:51 pm

The over-hype of the Raptors astounds me.

This is a team that has two options, both guards, neither being that superstar/go-to guy, neither great defensively. They have okay depth but nothing impressive and they still need a starting big that they can rely on that is defensive and can score, simply having role players wont cut it (which is what they have). Of the potential playoff teams, lets say top 9, their starting 5 is the worst. Even a Pacers team without PG looks better and is more trustworthy.

They make the 3rd seed because 2 teams decided to contend in the East last season. They still lack an real playoff experience and have no vets there to deal with sticky situations. I guess Lowry can quality a bit, but he has been so up and down his entire career.

Last season the teams that had poor seasons unexpectedly are now in much better positions and have seemingly fixed their problems.
You have the addition of at least two more teams that will make the playoffs.
The health of at least the Bulls.
The now added experience to the Wizards and Horncats.
We then have the Raptors who what? Added a depth guard? There are too many holes on this roster for us to consider this a solid or improving move.

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