Playoffs 2017: WC First Round - Houston Rockets (3) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (6)

[Pillendreher]

It's certain guys. Let's talk about it.

[ThunderBolt]

Do we have too??

[Pillendreher]

Do we have too??

Yes. I'd mutch rather fool myself into believing we'll advance instead of watching us give up 130 to the Nuggets or beat them convincingly and then go 'And where was that the last 3 weeks?!'.

[ThunderBolt]

I think we lose in 5 games. If this team suddenly starts playing good basketball, we may sneak a second win out of this. Stranger things have happened.

[hardenASG13]

Not a good matchup. Id assume Westbrook will play about 42 minutes a game, so there's that. Gonna need abrines to get hot for 4 or 5 games/to never play Christon over him, ever (They have to see this, right?)

I hope McDermott can contribute with threes, and maybe be able to stay with Ryan Anderson on D. If they were playing Utah or S.A. I wouldn't want him in at all, but gonna need shooting vs houston, they are going to hit their 3s in bunches.

Unless adams gets his act together, he can get pulled for kanter. If he's scoring 5 pts and not completely dominating the boards, he won't be worth it. Will kanter get abused in the p n r? Sure, but adams will most likely as well, at least kanter gives you 20 and 10, and again okc needs to figure out a way to score with houston, cause they aren't gonna stop them enough.

Itd be nice to get a few good games from grant, he's worth a shot for 15 min a night to see if he can thrive Playing in a spread out/ fast tempo game. He actually fits nicely in this series in my opinion.

As for Roberson.....he needs to be locking down harden thoroughly to be able to play in this series. Playing 4 on 5 offensively will not work vs houston. If houston is able to not guard him, clogging the lane for oladipo and Westbrook, giving houston free doubles on kanter and adams, making those guys who absolutely have to produce jobs even harder, it simply won't warrant him playing just to be sticking with harden and doing an ok job (about the best you can hope vs harden). Roberson will need to be very active on the baseline and get to the rim for an easy 12 pts worth a game of layups and dunks. Who knows, maybe he's been saving his first pull up jump shot attempt or mid range attempt for this series (he really needs to be able to at least attempt a shot off a dribble, or a pull up in the lane! Seems he's athletic enough to take 2 dribbles middle, get to the lane, and elevate for an easy pull up at times, or to get a guy on his back and shoot a short turn around hook if he truly has always been a 4!) I submit houston does a great job putting him in switching situations, taking him off harden effectively, as they set their middle ball screen really high up and he can't possibly get through regularly.

Westbrook needs to contest his man's shots, because while he's waiting in there to rebound, the shots will be going through the net. Let the bigs and Roberson (I know he's gonna be playing) rebound the ball, and get a damn outlet pass. It won't kill the team.

Defensively, praying Gordon and Anderson don't come through, as they aren't proven playoff performers. Russ will need to win a game or 2 by himself. I see houston 4-1 or 4-2 unless okc plays very un okc like on offense.

[kdthunderup]

I wonder if Billy sticks with his big lineups and tries to out-muscle Houston down-low and prey the Rockets have an off series from 3 or does he go small attempt to match-up that way?

[Fabio19]

Can we just forfeit and go on to watch the other series?

[InTheSabonus]

Roberson v Harden, Beverley v Westbrook. A couple of key matchups there.

Honestly (and obviously) our entire playoff run will come down to our two recently signed to large sums of money guys.

Oladipo needs to just hit shots consistently across 7 games. We have nobody else that can create aside from he and Russ. If he doesn't bring it, we just simply won't score enough to win. He's been just fine- if not better- on defense all season, but he needs to hit his 3s.

And Adams. Well talked about. Maybe he lifts in the playoffs. But if he doesn't, and continues to be trash, we have to start going with Taj at center, and maybe play Jerami Grant or something. Because not only (with Adams playing like he is now) will they slice us up, he'll probably start fouling their 3 point shooter like Serge used to foul shooters. Billy must not force this. Pull the pin if it needs to be pulled. Taj at the 5 is something you can get away with, if not something that should be encouraged, against the Rockets.

Now Billy will probably think "well we went all in on the rebounding against the spurs and warriors, so we'll do it again". If he does, we're screwed. Yes the rebounding was key last season- but two of our rebounders were Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant. We were able to kill teams on the boards without sacrificing offense. We try to roll with Roberson/Kanter/Adams against the Rockets, we'd be outscored so fast. We have to try and go small here. Something like Westbrook/Oladipo/Roberson/Grant/Taj.

Would help though if, by this stage of the season, we actually knew what our rotations looked like. What's our small ball lineup? We have many, apparently. Too many. We have long since needed to settle on one and stick to it, and give them plenty of time together.

[Osirus89]

Can we just forfeit and go on to watch the other series?

Russ always gives you a shot. It may not be a big chance, but its not impossible. Not with the way he has played all year

[Fabio19]

Can we just forfeit and go on to watch the other series?

Russ always gives you a shot. It may not be a big chance, but its not impossible. Not with the way he has played all year

Russ alone is enough to win against average teams, but not against good/great teams...

To make things worse our next 2 best players are in their worse shape of the season, and defense has also fallen off. Doesn't look good to me.

[Osirus89]

Can we just forfeit and go on to watch the other series?

Russ always gives you a shot. It may not be a big chance, but its not impossible. Not with the way he has played all year

Russ alone is enough to win against average teams, but not against good/great teams...

To make things worse our next 2 best players are in their worse shape of the season, and defense has also fallen off. Doesn't look good to me.

I mean to be honest, I wouldn't favor us to win the series. However, Russ at least make the series interesting. Without him, we have no business even being in the playoffs. Harden has trailed off as well from his previous level of play. It will be interesting to say the least. The good news is that Russ accomplished his two missions for this year. To win the MVP and to average a triple double. Winning a playoff series would just be a nice bonus. I don't expect much from this roster and if they play badly in the playoffs, they should send some guys up the river.

[bondom34]

Can we just forfeit and go on to watch the other series?

Russ always gives you a shot. It may not be a big chance, but its not impossible. Not with the way he has played all year

Russ alone is enough to win against average teams, but not against good/great teams...

To make things worse our next 2 best players are in their worse shape of the season, and defense has also fallen off. Doesn't look good to me.

Portland said the same against LAC last year, never know what happens. Guys get hurt, go nuts, whatever. And 3 of the 4 games were within 3 points. I don't think they have a good shot, but it's a non zero chance. And if I get to watch 5 games of Russ, sweet deal.

[spearsy23]

Change thread title to
Rockets (3) vs Westbrook (1)

[NaturalThunder]

We played Houston close three of four games.

However...

Game 1: We were down by 10 with under a minute remaining in the 3rd quarter before coming back and winning by two.

Game 2: We were down by 13 with about one minute remaining in the third quarter and by nine after three quarters. We were down by 13 about three minutes into the fourth quarter before fighting back and nearly winning.

Game 3: We were up by five after the first quarter but got outscored 34-18 in the second quarter and faced an 11 point halftime deficit and a 14 point deficit after three quarters. Another late fourth quarter push saw us take a lead and almost pull out a win but ultimately losing by two.

Game 4: Game was over by halftime.


Really, Houston dominated us this year. They just had one chokejob and two other near-chokejobs. This is an awful matchup for us, and given our defense the second half of the season I'm afraid we'll give up 120 every game and lose by 10-15 four times.

[Dadouv47]

I really think Houston is a terrible match up for us, and they are a better team. The addition of Lou Williams is also huge for them.

That being said, I think our team has more experience than the rockets.
We also saw a huge switch in the type of play between last regular season and play offs (from bad to VERY good defense, and more ball movement). Sure, we had Ibaka and cupcake so we had more upsides and possibilities to improve comes playoff time. But I still think Donovan is a great coach for playoff time, and our team can play way better defensively (if Roberson is 100% healthy).
On the offensive end, that's a big issue. We will need someone to help scoring (like Dion did last playoff). Not sure Mcbucket or Abrines would be enough.

In the end, I think that the most probable is losing 4-1, but if we manage to keep it close, I think we are mentally superior than the rockets and can upset them. Our odds are not good at all but it's not impossible.

[OkcMagic]

Okc in 6.

Billy D will prove all the haters wrong again


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[hardenASG13]

Roberson v Harden, Beverley v Westbrook. A couple of key matchups there.

Honestly (and obviously) our entire playoff run will come down to our two recently signed to large sums of money guys.

Oladipo needs to just hit shots consistently across 7 games. We have nobody else that can create aside from he and Russ. If he doesn't bring it, we just simply won't score enough to win. He's been just fine- if not better- on defense all season, but he needs to hit his 3s.

And Adams. Well talked about. Maybe he lifts in the playoffs. But if he doesn't, and continues to be trash, we have to start going with Taj at center, and maybe play Jerami Grant or something. Because not only (with Adams playing like he is now) will they slice us up, he'll probably start fouling their 3 point shooter like Serge used to foul shooters. Billy must not force this. Pull the pin if it needs to be pulled. Taj at the 5 is something you can get away with, if not something that should be encouraged, against the Rockets.

Now Billy will probably think "well we went all in on the rebounding against the spurs and warriors, so we'll do it again". If he does, we're screwed. Yes the rebounding was key last season- but two of our rebounders were Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant. We were able to kill teams on the boards without sacrificing offense. We try to roll with Roberson/Kanter/Adams against the Rockets, we'd be outscored so fast. We have to try and go small here. Something like Westbrook/Oladipo/Roberson/Grant/Taj.

Would help though if, by this stage of the season, we actually knew what our rotations looked like. What's our small ball lineup? We have many, apparently. Too many. We have long since needed to settle on one and stick to it, and give them plenty of time together.

I like the idea of Taj at center in this series, hadnt thought of that. Kanter can also have his way offensively, and i dont see much of a role for adams as he cant guard houstons p n r either and kanter is much better on offense. They aren't gonna post up on them. Could just trap that high middle screen and hope for the best. I agree, throw grant in there this is a good matchup for him. He'll get 0 love from the refs and miss some rotations, but I think he can be productive slashing vs houston and he can occasionally hit shots.

[Andre Roberstan]

As for Roberson.....he needs to be locking down harden thoroughly to be able to play in this series. Playing 4 on 5 offensively will not work vs houston. If houston is able to not guard him, clogging the lane for oladipo and Westbrook, giving houston free doubles on kanter and adams, making those guys who absolutely have to produce jobs even harder, it simply won't warrant him playing just to be sticking with harden and doing an ok job (about the best you can hope vs harden).

I agree with pretty much this whole post, but of all the guys you need to worry about Robes on, Harden's not one of them—or hasn't been so far. Robes has pretty much shackled him every time we play.

[itzmrgigglez]

This series is gonna be one for the ages! Who do we play when we Adavance?

[Pillendreher]

Warning: This will be a long post

Let's start with some defensive stats:



*FG% Rank: lower is better for every category
*Freq%: % of total oppFGA

So as you can see, a couple of things stand out:

-The Rockets have been the worst team at oppFG% in the restricted area, but they've been average at allowing oppFGA, so it hasn't hurt them that much.
-We're allowing the most oppFGA in the restricted area, but have a decent oppFG%
-Both teams haven't been forcing teams into the midrange, but have defended against it well nonetheless
-The Rockets aren't covering Corner 3s that well, whereas we have been doing a better job
-We also have been pretty well at not giving up a ton of above the break 3s.

What I remember from the first 3 games against the Rockets was our inability at defending both the paint and the 3pt line. We stopped giving up a 1000 3s per quarter after the first quarter or so, but we still let them get to the paint as well. Especially Nene was just living there.

Offensively, Houston lives in the paint and at the 3pt line. They take the most 3s in the league, but are only hitting the 3pt shot at a mediocre rate (35.9 %; 15th best). They take the 4th most shots in the restricted area and make them at a very good clip (64.4 %; 3rd best). They have the 9th best eFG% in Catch and Shoot situations, the 10th best FG% on drives, score the 3rd most PPP in isolation situations and the 10th most PPP in spot up situations.
We'll have our hands full. We can't allow them open 3s, but we can't allow them open driving lanes either. Dre has done a faboulous job on Harden (20.5 PPG/12.3 APG on 34 % from the field and 22 % from 3), which should give us hope regarding containing him. If Robes does an admirable job at that, his teammates will have to step up. Gibson and Adams will have to both protect the paint and rotate when our wings need help. Dipo should be up to the task, but Russ giving effort will be crucial. We have been decent at switching stuff this season (especially late in games), so I'd argue we should pursue that and force them into isolations. I don't think that having the rest of the Rockets beat us is a viable strategy since they have several guys who can get hot in minutes.
In short: Adams and Gibson have to bring their a-game while our wings will have to do enough to bother them into bad shots. They take so many as it is, but we have to make them uncomfortable.

Offensively I think we'll see much the same. I hope Billy will find a way to exploit their many poor defenders. Anderson, Williams, Gordon, Harden aren't exactly known for defense. I think Russ will definitely find ways to create shots. Our roleplayers will have to be able to know them down. Can't go 2/20 from 3 and Adams and Kanter missing bunnies. The Rockets give up a fair amount of corner 3s which we'll have to take advantage off. They will pack the paint and send multiple guys at Russ, which means most of our guys will be (wide) open. Dipo needs to re-find his shot and Robes can't continue his 0/14 streak from 3. Hopefully Abrines and DMD will be available and will hit 3s as well.
The Rockets are a mediocre defensive rebounding team (13th adjusted DREB Chance %)) and a decent offensive rebounding team (7th adjusted OREB Chance %). Which should be able to generate 2nd chance points, but I'm against forcing the issue in that regard, especially since being back in trasition will be crucial to avoid open 3s. Kanter will hopefully continue to score efficiently and stop fumbling the ball away.

Overall it will come down to our roleplayers actually stepping up and contribute. We have played well every time that happened. We will need it against the Rockets.
I hope Billy will stop messing around. No 20 minutes for Singler or Christon games. No all bench lineups. Stick with what works and try to expand upon it. Abrines and DMD should only get time with Robes and Adams/Gibson on the floor. We have to avoid getting Kanter in defending situations, maybe play him with Gibson. Christon should never play. Grant MAYBE if we decide to go small, but other than that I'm against him playing.

That's it as a first look at the series.