ATNE Tournament, Round 1: 5. Jaivl v. 12. ThizzNation

[JeepCSC]

All-Time Non-Elite Tournament. Write-ups to follow

[Owly]

Team Seed Pick Team Seed Pick
Jaivl 5 7 thizznation 12 9
Dirk Nowitzki 1 7 Patrick Ewing 1 9
Dikembe Mutombo 2 26 Andrei Kirilenko 2 24
Manu Ginobili 3 39 Ray Allen 3 41
Mookie Blaylock 4 58 Bob McAdoo 4 56
Russell Westbrook 5 71 Tim Hardaway 5 73
Bill Laimbeer 6 90 Marcus Camby 6 88
Rick Carisle 7 103 Lamar Odom 7 105
Luol Deng 8 122 Larry Brown 8 120
Danny Granger 9 135 Dale Ellis 9 137
Nene 10 154 Baron Davis 10 152
Tony Allen 11 167 Otis Thorpe 11 169

5
Jaivl
Dikembe Mutombo
Dirk Nowitzki
Luol Deng
Manu Ginobili
Mookie Blaylock

Bill Laimbeer
Nene
Danny Granger
Tony Allen
Russell Westbrook

Coach: Rick Carlisle

Spoiler:

I have Mookie. I don't need hype. No fancy names, just well-defined roles.

PG: 95-97 Mookie Blaylock
PG: 13-15 Russell Westbrook
SG: 05-08 Manu Ginóbili (Injured in 06 -well, always injured-)
SG: 11-13 Tony Allen

SF: 10-12 Luol Deng
SF: 08-10 Danny Granger
PF: 05-07 Dirk Nowitzki
PF: 09-11 Nene Hilario
C: 97-99 Dikembe Mutombo
C: 88-90 Bill Laimbeer

12
thizznation
Patrick Ewing
Bob McAdoo
Andrei Kirilenko
Ray Allen
Tim Hardaway

Marcus Camby
Otis Thorpe
Lamar Odom
Dale Ellis
Baron Davis

Coach: Larry Brown

Spoiler:

Great write ups so far.



There have been some great teams already discussed here but where my team outshines the rest is versatility and the ability to go big or small depending on the opposing team and always being able to exploit chosen mismatches. I have lots of long athletic players that can shoot the ball very well and defend multiple positions.

My default line up is going to be very well rounded with Tim Hardaway playing a classic PG Role, Ray Allen being your prototype SG, Andre Kirilenko with a role of fortifying the perimeter defense and spacing with corner 3's, McAdoo is going to be scoring lots of buckets and be utilized to stretch the 4 when needed, Ewing is going to be a low post offensive option and will also be used to draw out opposing centers depending on the situation, he will also be my rim protector.

So with this line up will have great overall defense, fantastic floor spacing, dribble penetration, 2 different pick and roll/pop options, 2 different low post options, multiple iso options, basically all 5 players on the court can score in multiple ways. I have lots of different options(understatement) allowing me to pick the weakest link of the opposing team to attack. This starting line up has an average TS% of .590


My bench has some great replacements for seamless changes. When Ewing needs to sit there will be no freebies in the paint with Marcus Camby replacing him. When Ray needs to hit the bench Dale Ellis will be able to fit his role like a glove. For PF I can start to explore many options, I can play Otis Thorpe if I'm getting torched by opposing bigs in the block, I can slide AK-47 to the 4 for great defense and floor stretching, I can put Lamar Odom in for help in play creation, or I could go very big with Ewing at PF and Camby at C. This is just a taste of my team's flexibility.

A small ball line up of Baron Davis, Ray Allen, Dale Ellis, Andre Kirilenko, and Bob McAdoo would put up some terrifying offensive numbers.

Basically my team can stomp on the gas or pump the breaks depending on the situation of the game. I think this is what separates my team from the rest.



(Will finalize player years and give full individual player write ups soon.)

[Jaivl]

I totally forgot about this, lol. First post.

Starting lineup against thizznation:

C: Bill Laimbeer
PF: Dirk Nowitzki
SF: Danny Granger
SG: Manu Ginóbili
PG: Mookie GOATlock

6M: Russell Westbrook
Clue player: Tony Allen


Considerations:

1: Russell Westbrook will be on the floor -or try to- every minute that Marcus Camby is in.

Seems quite obvious, but I need to exploit the absence of Ewing whenever I can. Camby just doesn't cut it. Remember that stretch of the season where Westbrook was dominating on the pick and roll with Enes Kanter of all people? (You should remember it, it was, like, last week). Well, now imagine that pick and roll/pop game with the GOAT big man shooter. Aaaight.

2: Tony Allen will be on the floor -or try to- every minute that Dale Ellis is in.

On that bench, I fear Dale Ellis the most. 26 ppg on 43% 3P shooting, are you kidding me? Luckily for me, I have arguably the GOAT man-to-man defender on the perimeter. Around screens, on iso, he never gets tired, he never stops hustling, he is always well positioned. He locked up peak KD, I think he can do well against Dale.

3: I really don't need to play Mutombo that much. He has a powerful backcourt (seems weird to praise my opponent but I'm trying to be fair game), but Thizz's inside game doesn't scare me, like... at all. I'd be really happy with Ewing going 1v1 on Laimbeer every possesion. Except for peak Baron Davis, he doesn't really have a good finisher at rim, so Mutombo's interior dominance isn't needed.

4: Dirk Nowitzki is obviously going to be my main offensive option. I mean, what can he do against him? Putting Ewing on him leaves the zone totally open. McAdoo would be torched. Kirilenko is actually an option, but that's why Danny Granger (8) is on the starting lineup.

5: I feel you deserve an explanation about Mookie Blaylock. He is the perfect defender for Tim Hardaway and the perfect offensive set-destroyer. 1998 Mookie peaks at +3.80 DRAPM at Doc's spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=5). Just for the sake of comparison, Artest peaks at +4.70, Tony Allen at +4.81 and Jason Kidd at +3.58. And this is post-prime Mookie. The Hawks were #4 on defense on 1995, before getting Mutombo, a defense primarely based on ball-stealing, Minnesota-RickyRubio style. He is a perpetual All-Defense teamer, and he certainly isn't getting that recognition due to his popularity. In the years I selected, he's also a 36.5% 3-point shooter in both regular season and playoffs, on an absurd volume (7.5 attempts on the RS, 8.6 on the playoffs). Curry shot it behind the arc 8.1 times per game this season.

6: I trust Rick Carlisle to get the most out of my players, on both offense and defense. COTY in his rookie year, LeBron's destruction on the 2011 Finals is only an example of what he can do. He obviously knows how to make a winning team and he knows my star, so I'll let him work and I'm not in the mood for a long writeup

7: Manu is going to have a hell of a job, being both the secondary offensive option and the Allen-stopper in this series. Can he do it? Hell yes he can, he has done it before!! (http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... A-SAS.html).

8: Danny Granger is starting, so Kirilenko can't guard Dirk. You can't leave a 23 ppg, 39.0 3P% scorer open at any time. His defense is good enough to stop what Kirilenko might do. A lineup of Mookie/Manu/Granger/Dirk/Laimbeer provides 5 outside shooting threats and 3 elite defenders at the same time.

9: Nene is only seeing minutes if McAdoo is crazy hot.



That's it for today.

[thizznation]

Starting Lineup

PG: Baron Davis
SG: Dale Ellis
SF: Andrei Kirilenko
PF: Bob McAdoo
C: Patrick Ewing



Gameplan


Defense: Everyone is going to be guarding their position except Kirilenko will going to be guarding Dirk most of the time while Ellis and Mcadoo are going to share covering Granger. Kirilenko is shorter than Dirk but has great length, enough to effect Dirk's shots. Andrei is going to be getting very close to Dirk as soon as he gets the ball and try to make him put the ball on the floor. If Dirk starts to heat up he will start to get doubled if he receives the ball in the post. Dirk will not be stopped but he will be able to be contained. Javil's team will have very limited offensive options if Dirk isn't taking over. I'm going to try and not play Ray Allen while he has Danny Granger in due to match up problems. I should do well on the boards considering my team is much more athletic at every position. Ewing is going to be ask to exert extra effort on the boards while taking a slightly smaller offensive load.


Offense: As good as Blaylock's defense is, Baron Davis matches up very well with him. Baron is an elite athlete who is much taller, heavier, and stronger than Blaylock and still has enough speed to get by. He is going to be able to get to the line at a decent rate and break down the defense with dribble penetration. I will also be trying to get post opportunities for Davis as well. Off defensive rebounds we will be pushing the tempo and trying to get shots before defense is set, Ellis and Ray Allen will be going straight to the corner most of the time in transition for 3's and spacing while Baron/McAdoo run the lane.

McAdoo will be a serious problem for Jaivl's team. Dirk and Laimbeer will not be comfortable coming 18 feet out to guard McAdoo, if they show that far they will get destroyed by McAdoo's face up game due to lack of footspeed. Nene would not fair much better. McAdoo will be involved in pick and roll and pick and pop scenarios, and will try to isolate near the perimeter with these slower opponents.

Ewing is also going to see some pick and roll action. He will also be taken out of the paint to lure their shot blocker out for more freedom in the lane.

Shooting Guards will be coming off lots of screens looking for catch and shoot opportunities. I'm looking to shoot a lot of 3's with Ellis and Allen the 3 point legends. Will not run a lot of ISO's due to their good man defense.




Substitutions

I'm going to be trying to leave Ray Allen off the court while their line up has Granger and Ginobli due to him being required to cover Granger at times and I feel like there is too much size advantage in this match up.

McAdoo is going to be playing heavy minutes and going to get the most shots. Will use combinations of Lamar Odom/AK at PF and SF cover Granger and Dirk if needed.

Hardaway will see 15 minutes of play at least. With his elite handles and quickness he will not be shutdown by Blaylock.

Camby will see 10 to 15 minutes of play. DPOY and elite rim protector. Ewing and Camby should do a great job at protecting the rim.

Thorpe could see 5-8 minutes if needed.







McAdoo is going to have to have a huge offensive game for me.
Baron Davis will still be effective vs Blaylock.
AK-47 will not let Dirk run wild.
Will score lots of buckets in transition.
Ellis and Allen can still do damage vs great man defenders through off ball play and catch and shoot.

[Jaivl]

Quite busy with studies right now, expect a reply Wednesday/Thursday.

[trex_8063]

Saved this one for last because it's maybe the toughest/closest one in my eyes. fwiw, I think Thizznation's squad is underrated at #12.

Jaivl's going to start Granger, in his words to force TN to put someone other than Kirilenko on Dirk. However, TN's expressed that he's going to put Kirilenko on Dirk regardless, and take his chances with McAdoo, Odom, and others in guarding Granger. Not sure how that will work. I think there's potential for Granger to go off on these mismatches; it might force TN to make a change, idk.

I somewhat like the insertion of Granger into the starting line-up regardless, as it gives him one more very reliable 3pt shooter and overall excellent scorer out there. Deng's sort of a mediocre outside shooter, and I think Dirk does best with multiple guys to spread the D out.....makes it easier for him in isolation, and one thing those Dallas teams always seemed so good at (to me) was the 2nd pass: Dirk begins to move, sucks the defense in a little, kicks it out, and then the 2nd swing pass (maybe even a third) to the open shooter. Kinda need the shooters for that to happen, though.

Granger's a lesser defender, though.

fwiw, Jaivl's is overstating Mookie's effectiveness from behind the arc. He cited the 36.5% on massive volume, but it's VERY important to note that those three years are the three years the league brought the 3pt line in to 22' (as apposed to 23.75', and only 22' in the corners). Blaylock's 3pt proficiency never again approached what it was in those three years (for obvious reasons).

I think Laimbeer could do a fine job manning up against Ewing; I do worry about his pnr defense, though (just not terribly quick). Very smart defender, though, so might do OK. The other thing I must wonder about---and maybe my memory wants to make more of this than it really is---but part of Laimbeer's defense effectiveness was the intimidation and dirty tactics, which modern officiating is MUCH less tolerant of.


Anway, I'm mulling over a few things; will write more later when I'm not at work. Haven't decided who I like best in this match-up. Should be a good one, imo.

[thizznation]

I'm gonna do a small additional write up with a few slight strategic changes. I wanted to wait for Jaivl's response before I posted them but it looks like he has gotten busy with some other commitments. I'll try to post them later tonight.

[trex_8063]

I'll add of few more thoughts on this match-up (I'm still really struggling with this one; again, I thought thizznation's team was significantly underrated with a 12-seed).....

Jaivl intends to start Laimbeer at center. In my previous post I'd voiced some concerns about how Laimbeer's defensive impact would translate to modern offenses (and modern officiating)......those concerns still stand.
otoh, I think he'd be fantastic as a floor-spreading big and working the pick n' pop. He'd be more valuable offensively than Mutombo, imo.

That Dirk is gonna be a tough cover for someone (except maybe Kirilenko, although that potentially creates other mismatch issues for TN), that's basically a given.
However, on the flip-side, I worry about Jaivl's ability to defend McAdoo. I wasn't sure what his plan was there. I suppose Granger and Deng actually might be his best options there (both are fairly tall/long SF's) and allow Dirk to guard AK47. I don't think Dirk can exactly "keep up" with Kirilenko, but then Kirilenko isn't a huge offensive threat anyway.

Boy, these teams just look really evenly matched to me.
With such abysmal voter turn-out, I feel I need to cast a vote before the polls close. I'm going to go ahead and cast a tentative (though official) vote for Team Jaivl, and it's largely on the basis of his backcourt defense. Tony Allen is maybe the x-factor for me in this decision; he's a guy who can lock down on Allen/Ellis. And then he's got another good defensive option at SG in Ginobili, too. Meanwhile, Mookie Blaylock and a Russell Westbrook (who presumably can focus quite a bit on defense given he doesn't have to carry the offense here) can do an outstanding job of harassing Davis/Hardaway.

So between that backcourt defense, and having the single best scorer in this match-up (Dirk)......I'll have to side with him unless TN can blow me away with some fantastic counter-points.

[Owly]

Okay, thus far I’ve always voted for the higher seed, and whilst there was there was a slight waver in the 4-13 matchup based on talent levels, I wasn’t really expecting to put the lower seed through because they were typically less productive on paper, and then didn’t have a written pitch to help them. This one looks different. On paper, and by the numbers this one looks close. Then you throw in that both teams have write-ups, both teams have benched a couple of expected starters (often with players drafted fairly late) and have a lot of tactical tinkering and we have an interesting matchup.

The moves:
Jaivl
Benching Mutombo for Laimbeer. A reflection that J feels TN’s offensive game is primarily jump shooting, and that without sacrificing rebounding he can go for a more potent, more spaced lineup.
Verdict: A bold move taking out a second round pick. I can certainly see the positives as noted above, though I wouldn’t be as happy with Laimbeer covering Ewing as Jaivl appears to be.
Granger in for Deng. Far less of a “surprise” in terms of where they were drafted (J waited for the 8th and 9th rounds to draft his small forwards). Like the previous move it’s defense for offense and spacing.
Verdict: The move should succeed on its own terms in increasing spacing (though Deng’s problem was always that his range wasn’t quite to the 3, so spacing per se wasn’t a huge issue) and general offense. On the other hand Deng is a substantially better, more attentive defender. As such I don’t think it’ll make a huge net difference either way.

ThizzNation
Ellis in for Ray Allen: A biggie, this is moving a third round pick for a ninth. The reasoning “I'm going to try and not play Ray Allen while he has Danny Granger in due to match up problems”.
Verdict: Hmm a bit of a head scratcher. They weigh about the same (both 205 by bkb-ref though I think Ellis added weight though Ellis may have added about 10 pounds or so during his career). Ellis is nominally two inches taller (though Draftexpress’ listing at 6’5 without shoes suggests he might easily be called 6’6). Given that Allen is, simply put, the better player (and neither is considered a good defender), I’d have been tempted to ride with him and try to force the opponents to adapt or at least see how it goes. I’m not sure why either would be asked to cover Granger in any case as that suggests McAdoo (primarily PF) is covering one of the guards (assuming the stated intention for AK47 (primarily SF) to guard Nowitzki remains in place). The only question is whether this was also partially in response to Jaivl’s stated intention to keep Tony Allen in with Ellis (forcing him into playing a lesser player).
Baron Davis in for Tim Hardaway: The reasoning is to match up with Blaylock better.
Verdict: I don’t know, I just don’t like high volume, low percentage pgs, they just don’t set a great tone for the rest of the offense, and especially here where there are a number of other strong options it doesn’t seem ideal (not that Hardaway necessarily is either). Nonetheless I do see the benefits to Davis’ size.

A lot of Thizz’s team have had issues with coaches (Thorpe with Collins), professionalism (Baron), drink and drugs (Ellis, Camby, Odom), teammates (Hardaway with Sprewell), or other character/mentality questions (McAdoo with the post Braves decline, “selfish” tag; to a lesser degree Kirilenko, who, for whatever reason broke down in Utah). Larry Brown, if he isn’t demanding they’re traded, perhaps isn’t the man-manager to keep them all happy.

I’m not totally convinced by some aspects of Jaivl’s pitch specifically: that Camby doesn’t cut it as a help defender; pitching (I’m assuming) Laimbeer as an “elite defender”; being “really happy” with peak Ewing attacking Laimbeer; Granger’s D being good enough to stop Kirilenko (a crafty, fairly efficient, mainly off ball scorer, though obviously only middling usage; Kirilenko is also a dangerous passer and draws a lot of fouls so I’d have been somewhat tempted to have gone with the more complete player, and the more attentive defender in Deng, when Granger is only likely to be a third option; still I see the benefits of the trade off, I just guess it’s roughly neutral). None of these things kill his team but it’s worth mentioning.

Okay overall I’m struggling with it but I’ll somewhat cautiously vote Jaivl because:
- I prefer his adjustments (assuming he isn’t sticking to keeping Tony Allen as his 2 for most of the game – which he’d be doing if sticking rigidly with Allen on Ellis, with Ellis apparently starting – and thus putting Manu on the bench).
- Given both coaches have instructions to react to opposing matchups, I think coaching is important here and I like Carlisle better both overall and in particular as a lineup tinkerer.
- There aren’t the character/personality issues or clash potential on his team.

[trex_8063]

Okay, thus far I’ve always voted for the higher seed, and whilst there was there was a slight waver in the 4-13 matchup based on talent levels, I wasn’t really expecting to put the lower seed through because they were typically less productive on paper, and then didn’t have a written pitch to help them. This one looks different. On paper, and by the numbers this one looks close. Then you throw in that both teams have write-ups, both teams have benched a couple of expected starters (often with players drafted fairly late) and have a lot of tactical tinkering and we have an interesting matchup.

The moves:
Jaivl
Benching Mutombo for Laimbeer. A reflection that J feels TN’s offensive game is primarily jump shooting, and that without sacrificing rebounding he can go for a more potent, more spaced lineup.
Verdict: A bold move taking out a second round pick. I can certainly see the positives as noted above, though I wouldn’t be as happy with Laimbeer covering Ewing as Jaivl appears to be.
Granger in for Deng. Far less of a “surprise” in terms of where they were drafted (J waited for the 8th and 9th rounds to draft his small forwards). Like the previous move it’s defense for offense and spacing.
Verdict: The move should succeed on its own terms in increasing spacing (though Deng’s problem was always that his range wasn’t quite to the 3, so spacing per se wasn’t a huge issue) and general offense. On the other hand Deng is a substantially better, more attentive defender. As such I don’t think it’ll make a huge net difference either way.

ThizzNation
Ellis in for Ray Allen: A biggie, this is moving a third round pick for a ninth. The reasoning “I'm going to try and not play Ray Allen while he has Danny Granger in due to match up problems”.
Verdict: Hmm a bit of a head scratcher. They weigh about the same (both 205 by bkb-ref though I think Ellis added weight though Ellis may have added about 10 pounds or so during his career). Ellis is nominally two inches taller (though Draftexpress’ listing at 6’5 without shoes suggests he might easily be called 6’6). Given that Allen is, simply put, the better player (and neither is considered a good defender), I’d have been tempted to ride with him and try to force the opponents to adapt or at least see how it goes. I’m not sure why either would be asked to cover Granger in any case as that suggests McAdoo (primarily PF) is covering one of the guards (assuming the stated intention for AK47 (primarily SF) to guard Nowitzki remains in place). The only question is whether this was also partially in response to Jaivl’s stated intention to keep Tony Allen in with Ellis (forcing him into playing a lesser player).
Baron Davis in for Tim Hardaway: The reasoning is to match up with Blaylock better.
Verdict: I don’t know, I just don’t like high volume, low percentage pgs, they just don’t set a great tone for the rest of the offense, and especially here where there are a number of other strong options it doesn’t seem ideal (not that Hardaway necessarily is either). Nonetheless I do see the benefits to Davis’ size.

A lot of Thizz’s team have had issues with coaches (Thorpe with Collins), professionalism (Baron), drink and drugs (Ellis, Camby, Odom), teammates (Hardaway with Sprewell), or other character/mentality questions (McAdoo with the post Braves decline, “selfish” tag; to a lesser degree Kirilenko, who, for whatever reason broke down in Utah). Larry Brown, if he isn’t demanding they’re traded, perhaps isn’t the man-manager to keep them all happy.

I’m not totally convinced by some aspects of Jaivl’s pitch specifically: that Camby doesn’t cut it as a help defender; pitching (I’m assuming) Laimbeer as an “elite defender”; being “really happy” with peak Ewing attacking Laimbeer; Granger’s D being good enough to stop Kirilenko (a crafty, fairly efficient, mainly off ball scorer, though obviously only middling usage; Kirilenko is also a dangerous passer and draws a lot of fouls so I’d have been somewhat tempted to have gone with the more complete player, and the more attentive defender in Deng, when Granger is only likely to be a third option; still I see the benefits of the trade off, I just guess it’s roughly neutral). None of these things kill his team but it’s worth mentioning.

Okay overall I’m struggling with it but I’ll somewhat cautiously vote Jaivl because:
- I prefer his adjustments (assuming he isn’t sticking to keeping Tony Allen as his 2 for most of the game – which he’d be doing if sticking rigidly with Allen on Ellis, with Ellis apparently starting – and thus putting Manu on the bench).
- Given both coaches have instructions to react to opposing matchups, I think coaching is important here and I like Carlisle better both overall and in particular as a lineup tinkerer.
- There aren’t the character/personality issues or clash potential on his team.

Nice points, especially regarding the role of coaching.
I feel the same way about this one: although it's the 5 v 12 match-up, this was the closest one imo; and the one for which I feel the least certain in my pick. Both of these teams would have been roughly in the 3-7 range (possibly adjacent) had I decided the seeding (not that I'm complaining about penbeast taking on that task, mind you).

[trex_8063]

Thru post #10:

Jaivl (2) - Owly, trex_8063

ThizzNation (0)