Possible Free Agency targets next year

[Prospect Dong]

Starting early I know, but since this season promises to be fairly ugly I thought I'd jump ahead to who we might be able to land next offseason.

My numbers suggest that, if we cut Walker and Buckner's unguaranteed contracts and don't extend the QO to Warrick then we'd have over 20 million in space, even after accounting for another high lottery pick - so we could sign just about anyone and still have a little space left over to rebuild the bench, or Warrick can be kept for somewhere under the MLE.

Assuming neither OJ nor Conley do anything to make them look like huge busts, guys who play the 4/5 seem to be the obvious targets. Off the top of my head we could consider:

Boozer
Odom
Wilcox
David Lee
Marvin Williams
Frye
Villanueva

The last four guys are RFAs, but none of them are max (or even near-max at this stage) guys, so we could be in a position to outbid their current teams. The Knicks probably won't pay Lee big money with Zach and Gallinari as their present and future at the 4, and the hawks may stumble this season and be unwilling to add more salary after extending Smith this season.

Boozer's probably the best player on the list, and might make sense if the Grizzlies have a better than expected season and look to be one piece away from contending. Odom, I've always thought, can be much better than he's been in LA, and Wilcox is nothing special, at least not so far.

Anyone else, or thought on the general approach I'm predicting?

[GrizzledGrizzFan]

Lee has already said (through his agent) that he won't sign with the Grizz. Boozer will likely resign with with Utah or head to Miami (assuming they don't resign Marion and are able to move Haslam). No interest, IMO, with Frye or CV. Odom doesn't fit the age requirement for the 3 year plan. I'm "meh" on Wilcox. Nice player, don't think he's the answer though. That leaves Marvin Williams as the only player of possible interest to the Grizz, IMO.

I really think, though, that the next major acquisition or two will come via trade as opposed to free agency.

[Prospect Dong]

I think Lee might change his mind when the time comes - particularly if the Griz look like less of a train wreck this time next year - which is more or less a given as the Gasol trade recedes a little in peoples' memories. As a former #29 pick he's earned very little so far and I think he'd follow the money.

Best bet for Boozer is Utah keeping him, but it's very hard to predict FA in advance - look at Brand this off season. Like Lee I think Boozer will follow the money, so it may just be a matter of the Griz outbidding everyone else. I agree the odds aren't great though... I don't know about Miami adding Boozer next to Beasley - they strike me as kind of similar skillsets.

As for Frye and CV, and to a lesser extent Wilcox, adding them for anything more than the MLE would involve them having a breakout season. That's unlikely, but not impossible in all three cases. They're all lottery picks who had at least one good solid season to go with their most recent, mediocre one.

Like I say, I like Odom more than most, maybe just because I focus too heavily on his early years with the clips and one very good season with Miami. He'll be 29 this time next year, and 30 early in the season and while that's not ideal it means he's probably not going to drop off steeply before, say, the fourth year of a five year deal. Not ideal, sure, but still a very, very good third option who should be available at a third option price.

I'm not a fan of using cap space to facilitate a trade - sure, it can make life easy, but you're still going to have to give value to get value, even if the "value" in question is just taking on ugly, unwanted contracts. If the griz are going to avoid peaking as a first-round-sweep team all over again they need to add as much talent as possible while Gay and co are still on their rookie deals, and ideally that means deals where we get without giving.

[dark-child]

There is consensus that the addition must be a power forward. But what type of power forward is the right fit for the Grizz going forward. Carlos Boozer may not be the ideal fit as he is undersized and does not rotate effectively to help defensively. The Grizz have always needed a very athletic 4 who could defend, rebound and was a threat offensively. Boozer's defencies were showcased during the Olympics on a USA team that the Grizz would like to emulate in style of play. Boozer could however be a factor, in what the Grizz do if he opts out next year and Utah wants to resign him, then they could trade Kirilenko to Memphis who could absorb him since we are under the CAP and only seen just a little in return, thus allowing Utah to make Boozer a lucrative offer.

Blake Griffin/Oklahoma Sooners, would be the best case scenario via the draft, but if the Grizz are not in play for him then I would prefer Linas Kleiza, or Charlie Villanueva and neither would require max money yet fit the organizational criteria.

[SD2042]

In the case of Kleiza and Charlie V, both are solid offensively, but still won't solve the Grizz problems defensively especially CV.

[M-Town's Finest]

Why not just stick with Arthur if our choices are Charlie V and Kleiza...

[bgassassin]

Lee said that before we got Mayo. I think they might reconsider now. I think Boozer would be our best shot. If he opts out, then both Utah and Miami have to do some maneuvering to get him.

[Prospect Dong]

There is consensus that the addition must be a power forward. But what type of power forward is the right fit for the Grizz going forward. Carlos Boozer may not be the ideal fit as he is undersized and does not rotate effectively to help defensively. The Grizz have always needed a very athletic 4 who could defend, rebound and was a threat offensively. Boozer's defencies were showcased during the Olympics on a USA team that the Grizz would like to emulate in style of play. Boozer could however be a factor, in what the Grizz do if he opts out next year and Utah wants to resign him, then they could trade Kirilenko to Memphis who could absorb him since we are under the CAP and only seen just a little in return, thus allowing Utah to make Boozer a lucrative offer.

Blake Griffin/Oklahoma Sooners, would be the best case scenario via the draft, but if the Grizz are not in play for him then I would prefer Linas Kleiza, or Charlie Villanueva and neither would require max money yet fit the organizational criteria.

Boozer's a flawed player, sure, but while defence is always desirable I don't know that we're in a position to determine whether we can live with an offensively skilled/defensively challenged player at the 4. With luck we'll have solid to good defenders at the one, two and three and, in Darko, a guy who can defend the post and block some shots at least competently. Boozer's shown he can be a key piece on a WCF team, I think that means you've got to consider him in spite of any problems he might have.

I'd love to get Kirilenko, and you're right that he might be available for something as small as, say, Warrick and the remaining Laker pick, and he might return to near-MVP form if we slid him back over to PF. But there's a reason the Jazz would be ditching him and keeping Boozer, and, if we have a choice between the two, and don't know that we should give up assets to get AK47 if we could just sign Boozer outright.

How does everyone thing Marvin Williams would play next to Gay? Is he big enough? Gay's played a little 4 in the past right?

[GrizzledGrizzFan]

I'd love to get Kirilenko, and you're right that he might be available for something as small as, say, Warrick and the remaining Laker pick, and he might return to near-MVP form if we slid him back over to PF.

I agree with you here. The unfortunate thing is that AK47's contract will make it a tough pill to swallow, even for the Grizz.

How does everyone thing Marvin Williams would play next to Gay? Is he big enough? Gay's played a little 4 in the past right?

Rudy's play at the 4 was not nearly as fluid or natural as it was at the 3. I think on down the line he may find more time there (3-5 years), but for now he seems much more at ease at the 3.

[Prospect Dong]

I just remembered Drew Gooden, who I'd also been thinking about. He's nothing special, but he's a proven rebounder with some offensive ability - he probbaly makes a decent fall-back option if the more exciting choices don't pan out.

[NikeAir]

I'd try and get Blake from the draft then I try and give the max to Bynum

[SD2042]

Marvin Williams really doesn't work for me. He appears to have the game of a SF and a mediocre one at that. He doesn't have the overall strength to play at the PF and neither does Rudy Gay. With Drew Gooden, sure he could be a third or fourth option if you fall out of luck with getting your primary targets in next year's free agency. The thing about Gooden is that he's a solid contributor and will only play within his role. He doesn't hit the floor to hit 20 to 30pts and get 10 to 12rebs on the nightly basis. Which means Gooden lacks a better aggression to keep a team in games. Also Gooden has already came through Memphis and should not have put on a Grizzly uniform in the first place. It was a dumb idea to convert a PF/C to a SF who wasn't known for his perimeter shooting at all.

[Prospect Dong]

I think this season is make or break for Williams - he's definitely not your conventional pf, but neither is Josh Smith, or Dirk Nowitski for that matter. If he's good enough he'll be worth finding a big, banging center to play next to him. Of course if he's too good the hawks will just match anything we can throw at him.

Gooden's pretty meh, kind of the Mike Miller of power forwards in that he'll give you what you absolutely need but not much more. Depending on how much actual star power we have on the roster, and what we get in the draft that might end up being al we need, but I'd obviously rather get an impact guy.

[realfung]

Odom is good target

[cgf]

I like Kirilenko a lot but would you guys score enough with him as your PF? I don't see Gasol putting up much more than 10 pts, and that only if he gets a lot of minutes, and Conley's never struck me as a great scorer either. I know Mayo should bear the brunt of your offense but with gay his only real scoring sidekick wouldn't AK's lack of scoring be an issue?

[GrizzledGrizzFan]

Not if he were to produce on the level that he did prior to Boozer's arrival in Utah. AK's production went in the tank when he was moved from the 4 to the 3.

[Downtown]

Just a comment on some of the names mentioned. Marvin Williams is a pretty good young player, but he doesn't seem like the correct fit for Memphis as has been mentioned. If you're going after a free agent that will cost a good deal of money he better be exactly what you're looking for.

It's a no brainer, at least this early in the college year, that Blake Griffin, based soley on last years NCAA season, is the one player that both has the talent and seems like a perfect fit. But an awful lot is going to change by the time next years draft rolls around and things can, and will change.

Guys like Boozer and Odom probably will be looking at teams that they feel could compete for a championship if they sign there. Players like Lee and Wilcox will be looking at the money although Lee has reportedly made mention of not wanting to play in Memphis so if everything is equal he might sign elsewhere. Players like Frye and Villineuva might be okay but of the two Frye isn't at the level I would be going after, and Charlie V needs to show he can play on the defensive half of the court instead of being a liability.

I actually don't think Drew Gooden would be a bad idea as long as the price was right, say around the $5.5mil mark. A veteran that can hold down the fort might be an ingredient that the Grizzlies could use. He's been bounced around alot in his career but he plays solid basketball. I wouldn't go more than three years with an offer though and he wouldn't be guaranteed big minutes. I could see him providing what Warrick does as a combo forward, but with more experience, better defence and rebounding. As a matter of fact I wouldn't rule out if Gasol ends up showing he can handle the load looking to the Bulls for a Gooden for Milicic swap this season since if Chicago can regain their form of two years ago they might need a center to help Noah out if Gray still looks raw. But it would be at the trade deadline after we know how the center and power forward situation looks. Who knows, maybe Arthur will surprise us all.

But that's just one option. Think about if they get a chance to draft Griffin. They will still need a veteran power forward to settle the team and mentor. Both Gooden and Joe Smith could fit that role. What if Mayo proves to be a really good pointguard and is much better than the other three? If you can't get Griffin do you take DeRozan, switch Mayo to fulltime pointguard, and trade for a younger power forward? What if Jaric can't get the job done off the bench this year? Do you sign a better sixth man as the combo shooting guard/small forward that is either a shutdown defender or a longrange shooter to swing the momentum of a game? What if both Gasol and Haddadi end up being unable to handle the NBA game? Do you draft Mullins or Thabeet for center and go after a free agent power forward?

That's why I've been saying that some serious evaluation is in order this year, make a couple of moves at the trade deadline to consolidate some positions, and put the team in position for the logical moves in the both the draft and next years free agent market to push your team to the next level. That's where the talents and vision of your front office is going to be crucial. I've watched Sam Presti setting the table last year for the Sonics, and now he's positioned them for the big moves next summer, just like your GM should be doing.

[SD2042]

Not if he were to produce on the level that he did prior to Boozer's arrival in Utah. AK's production went in the tank when he was moved from the 4 to the 3.

It really did from the last two seasons. he really needs a change of teams. Utah is reported to need to make some changes to keep from paying the luxury tax within the next year.

http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wireta ... s_to_make/

"We're going to have to make some very, very tough decisions next year," owner Larry Miller said. "I do not intend us to be a luxury-tax payer, but only because we have to have an economically stable franchise regardless of anything else."

With Carlos Boozer heading to free agency next summer, that leaves AK-47 with the highest salary on the Jazz's roster. It's becoming inevitable that the Jazz will have to move AK-47 eventually to keep from paying the luxury tax. Teams like the Grizzlies or the Cavs can jump in on this with salary room or expiring contracts from the respective sides.

[Downtown]

First off, I have to say that I've always liked Kirlilenko's game. He can do multiple things that help a team win.

But I read on hoopshype this morning that he is a possible target from the Moscow team and they could offer him the same kind of money he makes over here. So any team that traded for him would need to be careful what they gave up since he could just jump ship.

I wonder if this latest news lowers his trade value any?