2009 Draft Lottery odds for Grizz are interesting

[SD2042]

http://www.grizzliesonline.com/index.ph ... _grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies won’t have as many lottery balls in their favor this year’s Draft Lottery as they have in the past, but based on recent history, that might not be a terrible thing.

It’s an understatement to say that the NBA’s Lottery god’s have not been necessarily kind to the Grizzlies in recent history. In the Greg Oden-Kevin Durant draft of 2007, the Grizzlies had the best chance to win the lottery, but were ultimately bumped out of the top three, resulting in the selection of their point guard of the present and future, Mike Conley.

Last year’s draft saw the Grizzlies slip again, down to the fifth spot after having the fourth best chance. The team’s braintrust parlayed that position into trading for Rookie of the Year runner-up O.J. Mayo, so all was definitely not lost, but one can see a trend.

With the 2009 Draft Lottery right around the corner, will this be the year that the Grizzlies’ luck turns around?

They finished with the same record as the Minnesota Timberwolves (who as most know drafted Mayo last season), but lost a coin flip with them last month, meaning that they ended up with the sixth best, or a 7.5% chance of winning the first overall pick in this year’s draft. Their chances for the second and third pick go up from there at 8.33% and 9.36%, with their best chance remaining in place at No. 6, where they have a 41.4% chance.
We have a 29.4% shot at No. 7, a 3.9% chance of No. 8 and a 0.1% chance at the No. 9 selection. Because of lottery rules the Grizzlies are only able to move up to the top three spots, and cannot slip past the ninth selection, meaning they have zero chance at No.’s 4, 5, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14.

[GrizzledGrizzFan]

I wish they'd just get assigned the 9th pick and be done with it

[vanjulio]

WAIT A MINUTE.

You're saying we have 0% chance of 4 and 5.

but we can get 1, 2 ,3 ?

am I the only person that thinks this is complete madness?

[GrizzledGrizzFan]

WAIT A MINUTE.

You're saying we have 0% chance of 4 and 5.

but we can get 1, 2 ,3 ?

am I the only person that thinks this is complete madness?

Exactly.

In the draft lottery process, the only slots up for the "Lottery" are 1, 2 & 3. Once 1, 2 and 3 are determined, the remaining places are slotted in order of finish. So if Sac fails to draw 1, 2 or 3 - they end up with the 4th pick. That's what happened to the Grizz when they got Conley.

So the Grizz can either win 1, 2 or3, stay at 6 or fall back to 7, 8 or 9 depending on who ends up winning 1, 2 or 3.

Hope that clears it up.

Edit - Madness? No - I think it's complete and utter BS. The only reason I'll sleep okay if the Grizz get the 1st pick is that they've been robbed so many times before by this ass backwards process.

[SD2042]

NBA: Where draft lottery robberies happens.

[bgassassin]

My thing is that if you're going to do a lottery then the worst team should have a better % shot at #1 than #4.

[grizzleGM]

I think the draft lottery should be a 1-7 and 8-14 process.

All of the top 7 teams are drawn for the draft order and then teams 8-14 are drawn for order. This would make the process much more interesting. Actually this year I could see the Grizz getting the #3 pick!!! $@%*#^@!!! Just missing Rubio and Griffin!

[EddieJonesFan]

Is that article serious?

[GrizzledGrizzFan]

Is that article serious?

Yeah - it's on the Grzz/NBA site, if that's what you mean.

[jefe]

For the love of all that is holy, it is our turn to get number 1.

[GrizzledGrizzFan]

For the love of all that is holy, it is our turn to get number 1.

Which means the Grizz are doomed to see three teams move up and in turn end up with the 9th pick

[SD2042]

[I Am Awesome-O]

But seriously, we are going to be screwed in the lottery. It's a shame too, because we could use Blake Griffin the most out of any other team in the lottery. Don't let OKC advocates fool you on that one.

[GrizzledGrizzFan]

Anyone here going to be at the Grizz draft lottery party at BWW?