80s to Present Draft Eastern Conference Round 1: Square vs La Bird

[Snakebites]

Please refrain from posting until both teams have posted a writeup.

Writeups (not including roster and rotations) should not exceed 600 words (yes, I upped this just a bit from the previous game).

[Square]

1980 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 25 ppg, 11 rpg, 5 apg, 3 bpg, 64 TS%, All-Defense 1st team, MVP
2008 Kobe Bryant: 28 ppg, 6 rpg, 5 apg, 2 spg, 58 TS%, All-Defense 1st team, MVP
1994 Dennis Rodman: 5 ppg, 17 rpg, led league in every conceivable rebounding stat, All-Defense 2nd team
1991 Terry Porter: 17 ppg, 4 rpg, 8 apg, 2 spg, 52/42/82 shooting, 63 TS%
2013 Paul George: 17 ppg, 8 rpg, 4 apg, 2 spg, 170 3PM at 36 3P%, All-Defense 2nd team, All-NBA 3rd team
1986 Bill Walton: 8 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg, 1 bpg in 19 mpg, 61 TS%
1986 Paul Pressey: 14 ppg, 5 rpg, 8 apg, 2 spg, +5.3 BPM, All-Defense 1st team
2013 Mike Miller: 5 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg, 42 3P%, 60 TS%

ROTATION
G Porter (36) / Pressey (12)
G Kobe (40) / Pressey (8)
F George (33) / Pressey (10) / Miller (5)
F Rodman (38) / Walton (5) / George (5)
C Kareem (38) / Walton (10)

Kareem in 1980 was dominant, winning MVP and All-Defense 1st team, then putting up 32/12/4/3 with 61 TS% and a title in the playoffs. He was a mobile and stifling defensive presence as well as a prolific passer out of the post. A perfect hub for our O and D.

I also like how his unique game actually requires less in the way of traditional "spacing". If you watch him, you notice how damn crowded the lane is all around him when he posts up. And it just doesn't matter - he simply keeps the ball high, turns, and unleashes the skyhook. If the guys crowding him aren't standing on each others' shoulders, then they aren't contesting any better.

Kareem is paired with Kobe, an elite 1B option even by the standards of this league. Kobe has shown great offensive synergy with multiple post-up bigs, making him a perfect partner for Kareem, and an ability to score in against tougher playoff defenses, even on rosters with relatively little in the way of spacing.

The varied games of Kobe and Kareem make them perfect to join Dennis Rodman. Rodman is obviously an elite defender and allows us to control the glass in this, and really every, matchup. I'd be remiss if I didn't point out the series https://skepticalsports.com/the-case-for-dennis-rodman-guide/
which argues that Rodman's contributions increased his teams' MOV/Win% more than just about anyone ever.

Our complementary pieces are great defenders, passers, and scorers: Porter was an excellent defender and playmaker who often carried the Blazers offensively when Drexler struggled, and knows how to play off the ball. George is another all-star, all-Defense guy who also provides a shooting and playmaking spark.

Off the bench we bring fantastic passers and defenders in Walton and Pressey: an all-star, athletic slashing prototype "point wing" and All-Defense 1st teamer.

Both teams here have great defenders along the roster, but I think with all our shooters and passers surrounding the play of Kareem and Kobe our offense just runs smoother. LA Bird's main threats among the starters are Bird, who will (and did) find it tough sledding against Rodman, and Payton, a ball-stopper who won't be able to back down Porter and Pressey like he did smaller guards. Parish at this point was 37 and more of a matchup guy -- he struggled against a big, athletic Detroit frontcourt in the playoffs that year. Against other teams Ginobili off the bench might be a decisive advantage, but we match him with a similar guy in Pressey.

Tough matchup of course, but Team Square can pull it out.

[Square]

Damn I could probably have written 6000 words, so the limit is surely for the best. Mostly focused on my own guys. Good luck to you LA Bird!

[LA Bird]

Team LA Bird

Roster
1986 Bird: 26/9/8 62% TS (MVP, Finals MVP)
1998 Payton: 24/3/7 59% TS (All NBA 1st team, 2nd in DPOY, 3rd in MVP)
2005 Ginobili: 21/6/4 65% TS (All Star)
2004 Kirilenko: 17/8/3 56% TS (All Star)
1991 Parish: 16/9/1 64% TS (All Star)
1987 Cooper: 13/3/5 64% TS (DPOY)
2015 Gobert: 8/10/2 63% TS
2013 Butler: 13/5/3 58% TS
* Playoff stats for all player except for AK47 and Gobert who missed playoffs

Rotation
C: Parish (28) / Gobert (20)
PF: Bird (40) / Kirilenko (8)
SF: Kirilenko (28) / Ginobili (10) / Butler (10)
SG: Cooper (22) / Ginobili (26)
PG: Payton (40) / Cooper (8)

Edit: Ginobili's minutes have been increased to 36 under Dr Spaceman's suggestion.

General writeup

Offense
Team LA Bird is led by peak Larry Bird who, as the GOAT playmaking stretch 4 with the post up ability to exploit mismatches, is perfect for the NBA today. Parish has great chemistry with Bird in the PnR, an accurate turnaround mid range jumper and made his 5th All Star appearance. He shot a career high 64% TS and helped elevate Boston to a GOAT level offense at the start of the season [1]. Kirilenko is excellent at attacking the basket and is a highly cerebral passer. Cooper is a 3pt marksman (49% on 3.9 attempts) and great backup point guard (~12 assists/game with Magic out). Payton was the leading scorer and assister on the Sonics (Top 3 offense) and had one of the best playoff runs of his career. Off my bench, I have Ginobili, the GOAT passing SG with excellent penetration and outside shooting. Gobert is an efficient low usage guy and Butler is a 38% 3pt shooter to help stretch the floor.

Defense
My frontcourt have two of the Celtics Big 3, with Bird shifting to his natural position at PF and replacing McHale with a more perimeter-oriented Kirilenko who still provides shotblocking (2.8 blocks, 3rd in NBA) but is also able to force turnovers (1.9 steals, 4th in NBA). This is important because Boston were around second in defense excluding forcing turnovers, where they ranked last in the league. Kirilenko was added to specifically address this weakness. Bird's defense against PFs is underrated and he is a great post and help defender (see G6 of Finals). Parish is an excellent post defender as well and held Hakeem, Robinson and Ewing to only 47% TS in their 9 head to head matchups, 10% below their season average. Off my bench, I have another 7 footer in Gobert with his 7'9 wingspan to smother all shots near the basket, having led the league in FG% allowed at the rim the last 2 seasons. Every single one of my perimeter players is an elite defender and Cooper/Payton are two of the only guards to have won DPOY.

Matchup-specific writeup

Offense
2013 Paul George is too limited as a scorer with only league average efficiency to be taking on such high usage. Kareem may have no problem getting the skyhook off in a crowded lane but he is prone to turnovers (top 5 that season at almost 4 per game) and Bird was great at stripping bigs in the post. Examples:

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

Square's criticism of Payton's offense is unjustified. Sonics with Payton on court were the #1 offense in the league and I doubt he was a bigger ball stopper than Kobe. Besides, Payton also dropped 26/6 on 60% TS against Porter in the playoffs.

Against other teams Ginobili off the bench might be a decisive advantage, but we match him with a similar guy in Pressey.

Simply no. Manu is in the superstar tier whereas Pressey is with the good defensive role players. [2]

Defense
Spurs Rodman is not the same guy who was winning DPOYs on the Pistons. He sacrificed defensive assignments to pad his rebounds, skipped practices, clashed with the coach and even was on record of saying, in the middle of the playoffs: "I don't give a **** about basketball anymore." Kareem being the aloof player he is lacks the leadership qualities to rein in Rodman and there would likely be chemistry issues as was the case with Robinson. I am not worried at all to have Spurs Rodman guarding Bird.

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[1] Celtics offense before Bird went down: 116.4 ORtg (around +8.5 to league average) in 31 games.

[2] Per 100 possession,
Kobe: 38/7/7, 58% TS, 25.0 PER
Manu: 34/10/7, 65% TS, 24.8 PER
Cooper: 21/5/8, 64% TS, 16.7 PER
Pressey: 20/5/10, 58% TS, 15.2 PER

[Dr Spaceman]

Before I vote, I'd like to make a plea to both of you: more minutes for Walton and Manu. They are too good and too perfect for a league like this to be spending half the game on the bench.

[Square]

Jokes aside, I'll just address a couple of points and then shut up.

Rodman in 94 was a great defender and rebounder -- his skills didn't magically atrophy in a year (and then bounce back up in Chicago?). In the playoffs vs. Utah, he missed one of the four games. In the games he played, the total score was 280-280 and Karl Malone shot 54 TS%. In the game he missed, SA lost by 33 and Malone shot 64 TS%. Overall, he was in a bad situation for him, in large part by his own making, yes. He's in a different one here. Don't really want to play pop psychologist but Kobe and Kareem are serious, charismatic leaders (in different ways) and different from anyone he had around him in SA.

Porter's performance against Payton in the 1998 playoffs (seven years after his chosen year here) seems about as relevant as Payton averaging 5 ppg on 43 TS% against Porter in the 1991 playoffs. Also I'm not seeing the Sonics as the #1 offense in 98 (B-R has them 3rd) but maybe you are referring to some other stat. I like Payton a lot but he played mostly with finishers like Kemp and Hawkins in his prime, not really another (superior) creator like Bird.

George obviously won't have such high usage here, and his efficiency was higher in a smaller role the previous year. 2013 was the season in which at age 22 he was thrust unexpectedly into a role as the #1 perimeter scorer when Granger went down and led them to the second round. He has no such burden here and I'd expect his percentages to tick up accordingly.

Re: Walton's impact, I can recommend a couple of old RealGM threads (one started by my esteemed opponent): http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1376698
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1242665

[LA Bird]

Rodman in 94 was a great defender and rebounder -- his skills didn't magically atrophy in a year (and then bounce back up in Chicago?). In the playoffs vs. Utah, he missed one of the four games. In the games he played, the total score was 280-280 and Karl Malone shot 54 TS%. In the game he missed, SA lost by 33 and Malone shot 64 TS%.

Rodman's skills didn't disappear - his focus on defense did. Both coaches and teammates have called him out for not playing defense to statpad rebounds. Malone went off for that 1 game but when you look at the bigger picture, Spurs were doing just fine without Rodman for the 30+ games he missed during his time there (~0.1 SRS dropoff).

Also I'm not seeing the Sonics as the #1 offense in 98 (B-R has them 3rd) but maybe you are referring to some other stat. I like Payton a lot but he played mostly with finishers like Kemp and Hawkins in his prime, not really another (superior) creator like Bird.

1998 ORtg
110.1 Sonics (with Payton) <--
109.3 Jazz
109.2 Lakers
108.5 Sonics
...
102.4 Sonics (without Payton)

Kemp before that season and Payton played with Schrempf who is basically a poor man's Bird.
I don't see any problem in terms of offensive fit with Payton.

Re: Walton's impact, I can recommend a couple of old RealGM threads (one started by my esteemed opponent): http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1376698
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1242665

Technically, Gobert's rebound rate (20.7%) is even higher and he anchored an even more dominant defense in Utah after Kanter got traded. I would still prefer Walton due to the difference on offense but Gobert is a worthy replacement.

[Square]

I think Rodman's "focus on defense" falling off is generally overstated (see the skepticalsports piece I linked to), for reasons that have more to do with people's distaste for his off-court behavior. But even if it did: the evidence is there that he had all the skills and athleticism to succeed more again in a different situation. Which he is in in this league.

[Statlanta]

Two tenured users who have participated in a recent fantasy draft.. Good luck to both gentlemen. Now onto this matchup
In a back and forth battle I'm going with

Spoiler:

Square
I believe both teams run into some snags here. I think not having the efficient guy in McHale next to Bird may somewhat impact the dynamic that the Celtics Offense had in transferring that offense here(not to mention adjusting to a more ball dominate guy in Gary). I'm also not sure Kobe or KAJ can manage the enigma that is Rodman (as Kobe got many different reactions from Bynum, Pau and Shaq while Kareem was more of a silent leader) and I think Larry can help off him from here. I think sapping some minutes from Walton also mitigates some of the bench punch he would provide(though I'm not sure he would attend many games). Even with the issues from both teams I simply think Square is bringing more firepower than LA Bird here due to some bench impact to counter Manu while having more offense from his starters

[Jory04]

This is a great matchup, with two very well put together teams. For me this just comes down to who is going to get easier buckets, and for me that is Square. I think his center matchup is his main weapon, I just don't see Parrish stopping Kareem, and even worse is the matchup between backup bigs. Gobert is a good defender against most of the NBA, but gets absolutely destroyed by quality bigs like Cousins.

My vote is for Square

[DroppinDimes]

2 very balanced teams here. The difference in this series for me is the front court, specifically at center. I think Square's tandem of Kareem/Walton is too much for for Parish and Gobert. My vote is for Square

[Timmaytime]

Square's team works so well, such a beautiful fit. KAJ will be the first option, but he isn't as ball-dominant as Shaq was so him and Kobe should very much be able to coexist. Porter is efficient at running the offense and his role players make sense.

Rodman is a solid matchup for Bird, and outside of him I see too much reliance on Payton who was never that great as a first option.

Vote: Square

[Snakebites]

I'll be honest here, I'm a tad surprised Rodman's 1994 season was taken here. Rodman's later Detroit years were to my mind his clear career peak as a defender and rebounder, and they didn't quite come with the same level of overall baggage either. To each their own.

This is a rough matchup for La Bird. Even Kareem right at the tail end of his all star status absolutely destroyed Robert Parish in 1985 and got an MVP despite almost not even being the second best player on his team. This version of Kareem will Destroy him, and I don't quite see an answer to Kobe either.

Vote Square

[Quotatious]

Vote - Square

It's easy to see how LA Bird's team would work together, but I simply think that Square's team is too good. Kareem over Parish is a big advantage, especially considering that Parish is much older here. Cooper and Manu would do an excellent job against Kobe, but George and Rodman would do an equally good job against Bird. Porter would hold his own against Payton (sure, GP vastly outplayed him in 1998 playoffs, like LA Bird said, but Porter was clearly past his prime, and Square has peak Porter here - it's a different story).

Utlimately I think the biggest difference is Kareem vs Parish/Gobert. While Parish and Gobert are excellent defenders with great size, Kareem is just too good, if you see what kind of offensive supporting cast he has on Square's team. Plus, KAJ was still a great defender and a very good rebounder in 1980, still in his prime.

[Snakebites]

Square advances to the next round. Congrats.

[Square]

Great game LA Bird.

[LA Bird]

Second consecutive loss in a sweep... *sigh*. Anyway, good luck to Square in later rounds.