4 of the 6 best players in the league are white

[Wannabe MEP]

Well, at least according to 2011 RAPM: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking_rec

Player . . . . . . . . . . O . . . . D . . . . Overall
James, LeBron . . . 5.3 . . . 2.9 . . . 8.3
Nowitzki, Dirk . . . 5.9 . . . 2.2 . . . 8.2
Garnett, Kevin . . . 1.6 . . . 6.2 . . . 7.8
Nash, Steve . . . . . 8.2 . . . -0.5 . . 7.7
Ginobili, Manu . . . 5.3 . . . 2.2 . . . 7.6
Collison, Nick . . . . 2.2 . . . 4.0 . . . 6.2

Discuss.

[giberish]

As much as I like various APM stats for showing who made their teams better by playing (as opposed to players with great-looking PPG and other counting stats who make their teams better by not playing) - I still don't believe Nick Collison was the 6th (or even 16th) best (or most effective) player in the league last year. That's where I start looking for some measurement artificat.

The top five are more plausible. Dirk, LeBron and Manu were very good (Manu's broken arm/wrist before the playoffs got surprisingly little attention for a potential title-changing injury). Nash was still an offensive stud, KG still a defensive stud (though perhaps also helped as Collison was by getting subbed for by Jeff Green).

[Wannabe MEP]

I still don't believe Nick Collison was the 6th (or even 16th) best (or most effective) player in the league last year.

Honestly, I have no idea. I don't watch the Thunder much. I do tend to think APM/RAPM sees things that we don't...certainly things that the hype-machine misses. The hype-machine likes guys who create their own shot and who put themselves in highlight reels. Collison does neither. I'm a Suns fan, and I know that the hype has been very wrong in the past. For example:

-in 2009-2010 the Suns were much more effective with a frontcourt of Lou Amundson and Channing Frye than with any frontcourt that included Amare Stoudemire. Lou's loss was a bigger hit to the Suns than Amare's.
-The Suns were much more effective when Jared Dudley was in for Grant Hill, but Hill got lots of buzz and Dudley got none.
-The Suns improved dramatically when Lopez started for Frye, so the hype-machine gave massive props to Lopez. Actually, the Suns improved because the bench massively improved with the change, while the starters in fact got slightly worse.

The point is simply that I'm gonna give RAPM the benefit of the doubt over hype unless I know why there's something weird with the numbers. Anyone have any insight into Nick Collison? Or into whether these RAPM numbers are flawed for some reason? RAPM at its best is still at least somewhat situational. So what's going on with the Thunder?

My subdued attempt to defend Collison's RAPM numbers, based on severely limited knowledge:

1) Frontcourt players who play solid defense are incredibly valuable, and they're not necessarily the guys with Dwight Howard-esque physical tools. Toughness, intelligence, court sense, hustle . . . players with these qualities--especially in the frontcourt--can dramatically improve a defense.
2) I'm 100% sure that no one thinks Collison is very athletic. But according to draftexpress numbers, his athleticism is better than average for a power forward pretty much across the board, and much better than average for a center (and he has the size to play either position). I don't know if anyone puts any stock in these numbers, but his time in the agility test is better than Derrick Rose's and Tyreke Evans', his sprint time is better than Rudy Gay's and Joe Johnson's, and his max vert reach is better than Blake Griffin's.
3) 0 ability to create his own shot + 0 highlight reel plays = 0 hype. So what? Every team in the league has offensive sparks, and you really only need one on the court at a time. But do they have players who can do everything else? Perhaps part of Collison's situational value is simply that OKC already has Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. They need people to play intelligently, efficiently, and unselfishly within the flow of the offense. They don't need Hakeem Olajuwon in the post.
4) Any reason why Collison isn't a No-Stats All Star of the Shane Battier mold?? A lego-type player with perhaps greater impact because of his role in the defensive frontcourt?
5) From what little I've seen it just seems like Collison has a superb feel for the game, almost like if Steve Nash was 6'10".
6) You know how Robert Horry has 7 titles? He doesn't get the credit, but is that title count just a random fluke, or is he the kind of player that enables those offensive sparks to do their thing?

[Wannabe MEP]

Anyone have any insight into Collison??

I've been looking over the numbers at basketballvalue.com, and I'm just not seeing anything sketchy in the unit numbers or anything. It's a simple as: The Thunder are very, very good when Collison is in the lineup . . . and somewhere between mediocre and awful when he's on the bench.

Raw ratings (since some people are uncomfortable with the "adjusted" part of APM)
-The simple overall rating while he's on the court has been in double digits for the last two years:
+10.34 (2009-2010)
+14.56 (2010 playoffs)
+11.13 (2010-2011)
+10.64 (2011 playoffs)
Each of those values is among the best in the the league, and #1 in the 2010 playoffs. If we were to just add those four values up and compare with other top players: he's first by a LONG way.

-His simple net rating (the difference between the rating when he's on and when he's off) is absurd:
+9.45 (2009-2010)
+29.39 (2010 playoffs)
+11.05 (2010-2011)
+17.09 (2011 playoffs)

Unit analysis
-His units were successful with or without Westbrook, with or without Harden, and with or without Durant.
-His units were successful when the other big was: Perkins, Ibaka, Green, Krstic, Etan, Nazr, White, or Durant.
-ALL 12 OKC units from both the 2010 and 2011 playoffs that have a positive APM have Collison in the lineup (minimum 10 minutes).
-The top 6 APM units from the 2009-2010 season have Collison.
-11 of the top 14 APM units from the 2010-2011 season have Collison.
-2010-2011 12 of the 14 units that he was on that registered an APM score were positive.
-2009-2010 9 of the 12 units that he was on that registered an APM score were positive.

Is there something I'm missing in all this?

[giberish]

Collison is much better than most casual fans think - he's better than Battier as a 'no-stats allstar' now. He's a relatively athletic big who gets team defense (as opposed to KU teammate Gooden who many fans and some GM's think is better), and his ability to make some jumpshots as well as good decisions on offense help team offense as well. So it's not all fluke / measurement artifact.

My first thought was that Collison had his minutes match heavily with Durant or someone else, and then had a few fluke plays go with him when one was playing and the other sat. Apparently that's not the case.

My second thought is that it's Jeff Green influenced. Green was horrible at PF and mediocre at SF. If most of the time Collison sat Green played PF and when Green played with Collison he was at SF then it could make Collison look unusually good (and also help KG the second half of this year).

Finallly, Collison could be just a very good fit with OKC so that he's extremely effective (and +/- measures effectiveness more than ability).

[Doctor MJ]

Oh wow, that's interesting.

Now look first off with Collison:

1) +/- runs into problems when you start dealing with part-time player for understandable reasons. If I only play Player X in situations where I think Player X is a good fit, then Player X is going to have an unfair advantage in +/- compared to players who have to play through good times and bad.

2) In general, we just haven't seen APM say that big minute role players are secret stars. The closest we've seen is probably Battier who tends to rank just inside the Top 40. That's totally awesome and actually pretty boldly says he's good enough to be the #2 guy on your team, but it's still a far cry from him being a true all-star, let alone a superstar.

Re: Nash, Dirk, Ginobili. Yup we've got some great white players right now.

More generally though, I'm a little afraid to ask: What's the average APM of white players in this league?

[Rapcity_11]

Part of me hates Nick Collison for doing so well in APM. People will often see him rated so high and dismiss the statistic because of it without pausing to even think about it. It's extremely frustrating.

[Wannabe MEP]

A couple of very interesting points, Doctor MJ.

1) +/- runs into problems when you start dealing with part-time player for understandable reasons. If I only play Player X in situations where I think Player X is a good fit, then Player X is going to have an unfair advantage in +/- compared to players who have to play through good times and bad.

I can definitely, definitely see that, but +/- is ALWAYS situational regardless. If you build a team around a mediocre "star" who take all the shots, that star may actually look pretty good when he sits because the team looks worse without him (sh*t, what do we do now??) . . . but really, all you actually have is a guy taking all the shots on a terrible team. The beauty of APM is that it gives us a new bias-free tool specifically to challenge the very definitions of "star" and "role-player" based on the nuances of substantive impact. We certainly have to question APM results and mine for problems and trends and "fit" effects, but that's really what I'm after: are there any "fit" effects happening here? It isn't enough to just pass it off on low minutes.

Also, what is the threshold for enough minutes? Collison was sixth man minute-wise in both playoffs, and always top 8. I feel like that's pretty significant minutes. He has ranked very well in several APM tabulations over the years--he was 37th in 82games multi-year study from 2007-2008 http://82games.com/ilardi2.htm ahead of guys like Iverson, Josh Smith, Deron Williams, Battier, Ray Allen, Joe Johnson, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph, Carmelo Anthony, and Amare Stoudemire, and this was in the big-minute grouping. Now obviously 37th isn't 6th, but it doesn't surprise me at all that given solid improvement and a shift in team fit, he could move into the top 15 or even top 10--there aren't big gaps between players until you get to the very top guys.

2) In general, we just haven't seen APM say that big minute role players are secret stars. The closest we've seen is probably Battier who tends to rank just inside the Top 40. That's totally awesome and actually pretty boldly says he's good enough to be the #2 guy on your team, but it's still a far cry from him being a true all-star, let alone a superstar.

Which APM lists are you looking at? Again, I'm not sure what minutes threshold you view as acceptable for "big minute role players," but what about guys like Thaddeus Young, Amir Johnson, Andrew Bogut, Luol Deng, Chuck Hayes, and Nene Hilario? Collison is part of a pretty significant crew if you ask me: guys who don't create their own offense, but:

1) Play efficiently within the flow of the offense, and
2) Play great defense without stat-whoring.

These types of players always have more impact than hype. Collison is getting most of his +/- credit on defense . . . is it really such a stretch to suggest that he is one of the top frontcourt defenders in the league? Doesn't he have all the defensive tools: length, athleticism, intelligence, intensity, hustle...and now experience?

[Doctor MJ]

Also, what is the threshold for enough minutes? Collison was sixth man minute-wise in both playoffs, and always top 8. I feel like that's pretty significant minutes. He has ranked very well in several APM tabulations over the years--he was 37th in 82games multi-year study from 2007-2008 http://82games.com/ilardi2.htm ahead of guys like Iverson, Josh Smith, Deron Williams, Battier, Ray Allen, Joe Johnson, Tony Parker, Zach Randolph, Carmelo Anthony, and Amare Stoudemire, and this was in the big-minute grouping. Now obviously 37th isn't 6th, but it doesn't surprise me at all that given solid improvement and a shift in team fit, he could move into the top 15 or even top 10--there aren't big gaps between players until you get to the very top guys.

What's enough minutes? To me that's really about why a guy is missing minutes. If a guy is generally accepted to miss minutes simply because he plays with reckless abandon, and not because the team's better off with him on the bench, then I think APM is a legit way of ranking his per minute impact.

With someone like Ginobili, I'm a believer.

With someone like Collison, I'm not willing to make that leap of faith. Bottom line is that he's never been treated like someone who the team had to have on the court, so I simply slot him in in the "nice role player" territory.

Re: better than a lot of stars....Yup, better than a lot of guys commonly referred to as superstars who never actually look like superstars in +/-. I do think that's quite worth noting, even as I wouldn't drafted Nick Collison over Amare Stoudemire.

Which APM lists are you looking at? Again, I'm not sure what minutes threshold you view as acceptable for "big minute role players," but what about guys like Thaddeus Young, Amir Johnson, Andrew Bogut, Luol Deng, Chuck Hayes, and Nene Hilario? Collison is part of a pretty significant crew if you ask me: guys who don't create their own offense, but:

1) Play efficiently within the flow of the offense, and
2) Play great defense without stat-whoring.

These types of players always have more impact than hype. Collison is getting most of his +/- credit on defense . . . is it really such a stretch to suggest that he is one of the top frontcourt defenders in the league? Doesn't he have all the defensive tools: length, athleticism, intelligence, intensity, hustle...and now experience?

I'm talking about the big sample size ones. 2 ones I respect the most are:

Ilardi's 6-year normal APM study from '03-04 to '08-09:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... l=en#gid=0

Engelmann's 6-year RAPM study from '05-06 to '10-11:

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking_rec

Guys like Collison, Hayes and Amir Johnson absolutely fall into my "don't play enough" category. Deng & Nene though are certainly interesting cases who to be honest I have a lot of difficulty placing. I don't consider them on the level of secret superstars, but I actually would have named both to the all-star squads this year.

[Elden Payton]

I seen the thread title & I was intrigued.

Good on Collison for being a leader in RAPM.

I'm not sure it's accurate though.

[Clangus]

As a Thunder fan, all i can say is Collison is fantastic on defense. Especially help defense. He regularily ranks in the top of Charges drawn. His rotations are always good and he doesn't make stupid fouls.

On offense, he sets good screens, moves into the open spaces and hits layups and some jump shots. I for one was estatic when Presti signed him to that genius contract. I dont know how the APM game plays out, but Collison is a very valuable basketball player for the Thunder.

[Wannabe MEP]

As a Thunder fan, all i can say is Collison is fantastic on defense. Especially help defense. He regularily ranks in the top of Charges drawn. His rotations are always good and he doesn't make stupid fouls.

On offense, he sets good screens, moves into the open spaces and hits layups and some jump shots. I for one was estatic when Presti signed him to that genius contract. I dont know how the APM game plays out, but Collison is a very valuable basketball player for the Thunder.

[Wannabe MEP]

If Collison is as good of a defender as RAPM suggests, shouldn't he be getting more playing time?!? Part of my point is that great defenders are almost always underrated...by fans, journalists, GMs, and coaches.

Here is the list of the top 15 defensive players according to RAPM:

6.2 KG
4.6 Bogut
4.1 Duncan
4.0 Collison
3.9 Luol Deng
3.9 Tony Allen
3.8 Howard
3.6 Chuck Hayes
3.6 Josh Smith
3.6 Przybilla
3.6 Jason Collins
3.5 Jermaine O'neal
3.4 Jarron Collins
3.3 Amir Johnson
3.2 Camby

Red denotes all-stars. (By the way, without exception, these "defensive" all-stars were the leading scorers on their teams for at least a season.)

And here is the list of the top 15 offensive players according to RAPM:

8.2 Steve Nash
6.4 Dwyane Wade
5.9 Dirk Nowitzki
5.3 Manu Ginobili
5.3 LeBron James
5.1 Chris Paul
4.9 Kobe Bryant
4.6 Baron Davis
4.1 Chauncey Billups
3.5 Kevin Durant
3.5 Deron Williams
3.3 Jamal Crawford
3.2 Ray Allen
3.2 Carlos Boozer
3.0 Jason Terry

Notice any trends?

[Clangus]

I hope you don't mind Los Soles but i linked to this thread and quoted you on the Thunder board.

As far as minutes go, I really don't know. It might be part of the youth movement? Ibaka and before him Jeff Green figured more in the Thunders plans perhaps?

Maybe Scott Brooks feel Nick is more effective in short minutes.

I am not surprised by the All star numbers, as much as everyone bangs on about Defense Wins Championships, scoring will always be more Glamourous, mainly because we all can admire a guy shooting with defense in his face, we all put ourselves in that position (mentally). Seriously, have you ever watched a game and seen a great fadeaway and thought "it's amazing how well the defender did there? " Well you maybe, and a rare few others, but the 99% of people are thinking "what a great fade, shot, move"

I think its more subconscious that you might realize.

Here is maybe a better way to explain my point. Imagine watching 2 guys cutting a log. 1 is holding the log and the other is sawing. Now imagine that the sawing guy runs the saw over his finger and nearly slices it off. What is your first reaction? Its to close your fist right. You sympathize with the guy subconsciously and try and protect your hand. Now imagine the same thing, but instead of the guy sawing cutting himself, he cuts the other guy. What is your reaction? if you're like most people its something like "OWWW I hope that guy is ok" - you subconsciously STILL Identify with the cutter. Putting yourself in his position - not in the guy holding the log. In my opinion watching hoop is a lot the same - especially if you are watching as a fan of neither team. You put your self in the position of the offense, the guy with the ball, since the ball is the main thing to watch in hoop just like the saw was in my example. So its no surprise that when people vote for All Stars etc they think of the great scorers.

just a thought i had.

[Rapcity_11]

If Collison is as good of a defender as RAPM suggests, shouldn't he be getting more playing time?!? Part of my point is that great defenders are almost always underrated...by fans, journalists, GMs, and coaches.

Here is the list of the top 15 defensive players according to RAPM:

6.2 KG
4.6 Bogut
4.1 Duncan
4.0 Collison
3.9 Luol Deng
3.9 Tony Allen
3.8 Howard
3.6 Chuck Hayes
3.6 Josh Smith
3.6 Przybilla
3.6 Jason Collins
3.5 Jermaine O'neal
3.4 Jarron Collins
3.3 Amir Johnson
3.2 Camby

Red denotes all-stars. (By the way, without exception, these "defensive" all-stars were the leading scorers on their teams for at least a season.)

And here is the list of the top 15 offensive players according to RAPM:

8.2 Steve Nash
6.4 Dwyane Wade
5.9 Dirk Nowitzki
5.3 Manu Ginobili
5.3 LeBron James
5.1 Chris Paul
4.9 Kobe Bryant
4.6 Baron Davis
4.1 Chauncey Billups
3.5 Kevin Durant
3.5 Deron Williams
3.3 Jamal Crawford
3.2 Ray Allen
3.2 Carlos Boozer
3.0 Jason Terry

Notice any trends?

I love the way almost all the +/- for these guys match my eye test.

[Krodis]

Another thing to note is a few years ago Collison made a subtle, but important change in his game:

He started drawing a LOT of charges. Which pushed him over the edge from "good defender" to "great defender".

[giberish]

If Collison is as good of a defender as RAPM suggests, shouldn't he be getting more playing time?!? Part of my point is that great defenders are almost always underrated...by fans, journalists, GMs, and coaches.

Here is the list of the top 15 defensive players according to RAPM:

6.2 KG
4.6 Bogut
4.1 Duncan
4.0 Collison
3.9 Luol Deng
3.9 Tony Allen
3.8 Howard
3.6 Chuck Hayes
3.6 Josh Smith
3.6 Przybilla
3.6 Jason Collins
3.5 Jermaine O'neal
3.4 Jarron Collins
3.3 Amir Johnson
3.2 Camby

Red denotes all-stars. (By the way, without exception, these "defensive" all-stars were the leading scorers on their teams for at least a season.)

And here is the list of the top 15 offensive players according to RAPM:

8.2 Steve Nash
6.4 Dwyane Wade
5.9 Dirk Nowitzki
5.3 Manu Ginobili
5.3 LeBron James
5.1 Chris Paul
4.9 Kobe Bryant
4.6 Baron Davis
4.1 Chauncey Billups
3.5 Kevin Durant
3.5 Deron Williams
3.3 Jamal Crawford
3.2 Ray Allen
3.2 Carlos Boozer
3.0 Jason Terry

Notice any trends?

To be fair, some of those top defensive players are horrific on offense: Collins twins, Bogut (this year), Allen (before this year), Pryz.

Of the top offensive players, the only horrific defender is Crawford, with Boozer and Terry (an offensive SG who mostly needs to defend PG's is a defensive weakness) also weak on D.

Still, offensive skill, flashy highlights and PPG are the key to All-Star appearances, big $$$ contracts and raving fanboys while stud defenders who aren't horrible on offense are undervalued and under appreciated.

[Nivek]

Not much point in being "fair." What that list does for me is echo findings from other research -- player evaluation (and compensation and accolades) are largely based on scoring.

[Wannabe MEP]

OK, I decided to regroup this list by:
1) Including guys down to 2.0 defensive RAPM score
2) making it just frontcourt defenders, just 4s and 5s
3) took out guys who submarine the offense by making a minimum 2.0 overall RAPM score

6.2 KG
4.6 Bogut
4.1 Duncan
4.0 Collison
3.8 Howard
3.6 Chuck Hayes
3.6 Josh Smith
3.3 Amir Johnson
3.2 Camby
2.9 Tyson Chandler
2.9 Nene Hilario
2.8 Gerald Wallace
2.7 Ime Udoka
2.5 Jeff Foster
2.4 LaMarcus Aldridge
2.4 Lamar Odom
2.3 Chris Bosh
2.2 Rashard Lewis
2.0 Thaddeus Young
2.0 Elton Brand

Then I trimmed out some people to focus on likely top frontcourt defenders over the next few years.

Significantly lower minutes than Collison
3.6 Chuck Hayes
3.3 Amir Johnson
2.7 Ime Udoka
2.5 Jeff Foster

Getting rather old for elite defense
6.2 KG
4.1 Duncan
3.2 Camby

I really don't think these guys are in the same class defensively as Collison, and RAPM happens to agree with me:
2.4 Lamar Odom
2.3 Chris Bosh
2.2 Rashard Lewis
2.0 Elton Brand

Who's left??
4.6 Bogut -- injuries??
4.0 Collison
3.8 Howard
3.6 Josh Smith
2.9 Tyson Chandler -- injuries??
2.9 Nene Hilario
2.8 Gerald Wallace -- (really more of a small forward)
2.4 LaMarcus Aldridge
2.0 Thaddeus Young

I'd say Collison is in elite company. Even if there is significant RAPM bias due to low minutes or situation, I think it's safe to say that he's still one of the top 4-5 frontcourt defenders going forward.

Would I take Amare over Collison? Not a chance. LaMarcus Aldridge? yeah, probably. Josh Smith? Nene? I honestly don't know; I think it would depend on fit.

[azuresou1]

You wouldn't take Amare over Collison?