Kobe Bryant vs. Karl Malone: Elimination Games

[semi-sentient]

This is not only interesting, but quite depressing for me, being a Laker fan

good work

There's nothing depressing about it. It's easy to crunch a bunch of numbers and draw conclusions without putting things into context, and it takes so much effort to go back through and provide proper analysis that most people don't even bother. However, in this case, I feel like I need to step in because the lack of analysis really bothers me (Cumulative box score numbers are now considered analysis? Lovely.), especially one that is attempting to label Kobe a choker (seriously? ).

Here's some actual analysis on Kobe, and I'd challenge Jazz fans to provide some analysis on Malone. Let's here about how Karl stepped it up from game to game. Let's hear about the defenders he went up against. Let's here about how he orchestrated the offense or led great comeback victories. BRING IT!



1999-00 - Kobe played in 2 elimination games this year and was brilliant both times. The first game was against the Kings where his offensive numbers were definitely below his playoff averages, but guess what? The game was a slaughter in favor of the Lakers so it doesn't matter. What he did on defensive end against Jason Williams/Tony Delk (and on their wings in general) was far more relevant and is exactly the kind of stuff that these statistical "analysis" threads lack. Sacramento's offense was completely shut down that game and Kobe deserves a ton of credit for that. I don't even need to talk about that infamous Game 7 against the Blazers where Kobe was the only guy who showed up in the 1st 3 quarters and helped led one of the greatest comebacks (along with Shaw and Shaq) in playoff history.

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               GP   MP    PTS    TS%    REB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV
========================================================================
     Playoffs  22   39.0  21.1   .517   4.5    4.4    1.5    1.5    2.5
  Elimination  2    40.5  21.0   .510   6.5    6.5    0.0    2.0    1.0

2001-02 - Kobe again played in 2 elimination games, this time against a much improved Sacramento Kings team that had an excellent wing defender in Doug Christie to throw at Kobe (the Kings had the 6th ranked defense overall). The Kings were pretty easily the best team that the Lakers faced that year in the post-season, and he registered back-to-back 30/10 games while running the offense to perfection (12 assists, 2 turnovers). In Game 6, Shaq and Kobe were the only 2 players who showed up and both were absolutely brilliant in a game that came down to the wire (the infamous Kobe elbow to Bibby's nose game). In Game 7, both guys again performed brilliantly (getting to the line at will) and every last bit of what Kobe brought mattered as the Lakers finished off the Kings in overtime. The Lakers essentially won a championship because Kobe (and Shaq, of course) delivered in a major way in consecutive closeout games.

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               GP   MP    PTS    TS%    REB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV
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     Playoffs  16   43.8  26.6   .511   5.8    4.6    1.4    0.9    2.8
  Elimination  2    48.0  30.5   .552  10.5    6.0    1.0    0.0    1.0

2002-03 - The only elimination game this year came against the Spurs (#3 defense) who finally had an answer for Kobe (Bruce Bowen, a fantastic wing defender). However, the numbers in this game are fairly meaningless as the Spurs absolutely demolished the Lakers (by 28 points) thanks to a monstrous performance from Tim Duncan (because Fox, our best Duncan defender, was injured in Game 1). Not that it particularly matters, but the game was close up until Shaq picked up his 4th foul late in the 3rd, and that allowed the Spurs to go on a run that didn't really seem to end. Kobe could have probably done more, but it wouldn't have mattered because the Spurs were hitting from inside and out and the Lakers supporting cast was nowhere to be found (31 total points, 12 of which came from Slava). Whatever the case, it wasn't a good elimination game from Kobe.

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               GP   MP    PTS    TS%    REB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV
========================================================================
     Playoffs  12   44.3  32.1   .531   5.1    5.2    1.2    0.1    3.5
  Elimination  1    43.0  20.0   .503   2.0    6.0    1.0    0.0    7.0

2003-04 - In the only elimination game Kobe faced against a historically dominant (and very physical) Pistons defense, he was pretty bad. So was everyone else for that matter.

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               GP   MP    PTS    TS%    REB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV
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     Playoffs  22   44.2  24.5   .506   4.7    5.5    1.9    0.3    2.8
  Elimination  1    45.0  24.0   .464   3.0    4.0    1.0    0.0    3.0

2005-06 - The Lakers lone elimination game came in game 7 against a Suns team that dominated offensively. This game was NEVER in question and it was a blowout from start to finish. While Kobe's numbers aren't all that hot, he is the only guy who really showed up and this loss wasn't on him at all. I thought he played exactly how he needed to, but the supporting cast was nowhere to be found, particularly on the defensive end (or maybe the Suns were just hot -- they couldn't seem to miss). This is one of those games where Kobe probably could have dropped 50 on great efficiency and it wouldn't have made one bit of difference. I think people are generally disappointed that Kobe wasn't out there stat-padding when the game was out of reach, but whatever. He tried to get guys going early in the 3rd and it just wasn't happening. We couldn't get stops and that's why this game was lost.

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               GP   MP    PTS    TS%    REB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV
========================================================================
     Playoffs  7    44.9  27.9   .587   6.3    5.1    1.1    0.4    4.7
  Elimination  1    43.0  24.0   .659   4.0    1.0    0.0    1.0    3.0

2006-07 - In game 5, the Lakers again lost once again because they couldn't stop the Suns offense in their only elimination game. Kobe did shoot the ball poorly, but much of that came late in the game when he starting chucking 3's to try to get the Lakers back in the game.

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               GP   MP    PTS    TS%    REB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV
========================================================================
     Playoffs  5    43.0  32.8   .561   5.2    4.4    1.0    0.4    4.4
  Elimination  1    46.0  34.0   .471   4.0    1.0    1.0    0.0    6.0

2007-08 - Kobe had 2 elimination games against another historically dominant defense. His numbers in the playoffs were very good overall, BUT, the Lakers hadn't played any comparable defenses up until they faced the Celtics, so his drop in numbers is actually to be expected. Whatever the case, Kobe had a decent game 5 which the Lakers won primarily due to Odom and Gasol stepping up (for a change). In game 6, the Lakers got massacred so Kobe's numbers didn't matter much. This game was lost because they couldn't play defense and was pretty much over at halftime.

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               GP   MP    PTS    TS%    REB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV
========================================================================
     Playoffs  21   41.1  30.1   .577   5.7    5.6    1.7    0.4    3.3
  Elimination  2    43.0  23.5   .488   5.0    2.5    3.0    0.0    5.0

2008-09 - The Lakers lone elimination game came against the Rockets (#4 defense in the league) in game 7 which was a no contest from start to finish. Kobe scored 14 points in limited minutes, but he played a great all around game (really, it was a team effort). Some might look at this game and suggest that he underperformed based on how his scoring/efficiency went down, but that's pretty much false because most of Kobe's damage was done in the first 2 1/2 quarters. His play-making and defense were excellent and he led a very balanced attack.

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               GP   MP    PTS    TS%    REB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV
========================================================================
     Playoffs  23   40.9  30.2   .564   5.3    5.5    1.7    0.9    2.6
  Elimination  1    33.0  14.0   .478   7.0    5.0    3.0    2.0    1.0

2009-10 - Interestingly enough, the Lakers face back-to-back elimination games which they must win in order to win a championship. In game 6, which was a laugher, Kobe played a great all around game. The key to this game wasn't even what he did on the court, but what he did before the game by firing his team up (or immediately after game 5, rather). I thought that was the real difference and that's why everyone came out focused and playing hard. Still, Kobe had a great overall game with 26/11. As for game 7, people love them some "6-24" in order to discredit Kobe, but that's a bunch of hogwash. He shot the ball poorly in the first half, but this was a very physical, grind it out type game where just about everyone shot poorly. His defense and rebounding were fantastic, and when the Lakers needed him to score in the 4th quarter he delivered. See, when guys like MJ have performances like this (and they did), all you here is talk about intangibles and how players elevate their games in other areas. This is one of those cases where Kobe picked it up in other areas to compensate for poor shooting, and the result was that he ended up with a 23/15 game to help secure the championship. Don't take my word for it though...

"I thought in Game 7 [of the 2010 NBA Finals], what gets lost on people, [Boston] was badly outrebounded, and he didn't have a particularly good shooting night, but he had a great rebounding night and that probably was the difference of the game."

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               GP   MP    PTS    TS%    REB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV
========================================================================
     Playoffs  23   40.1  29.2   .567   6.0    5.5    1.3    0.7    3.4
  Elimination  2    41.5  24.5   .465  13.0    2.5    2.5    0.0    3.0

[ronnymac2]

Just to comment on two things......Kobe was injured in that 03 series. He had a shoulder injury. He didn't seem like himself in that sixth game against San Antonio.


Also, Kobe was fantastic in the 09 elimination game against the Houston Rockets. I know the numbers won't jump out at you, but he played great. Every stat was meaningful, and he did a lot of things not captured in the boxscore. I remember that game specifically because I remember thinking that I SAW Bryant play great, yet his stats are pedestrian.


One more thing....There was an interesting article on the 2006 Game 7. I'll try to post it here at some point. IIRC, it displayed evidence that Bryant didn't just give up on his team and that he actually played as well as he could. It just wasn't in the cards for LA to win that game against a superior opponent.

[ElGee]

Just to comment on two things......Kobe was injured in that 03 series. He had a shoulder injury. He didn't seem like himself in that sixth game against San Antonio.


Also, Kobe was fantastic in the 09 elimination game against the Houston Rockets. I know the numbers won't jump out at you, but he played great. Every stat was meaningful, and he did a lot of things not captured in the boxscore. I remember that game specifically because I remember thinking that I SAW Bryant play great, yet his stats are pedestrian.


One more thing....There was an interesting article on the 2006 Game 7. I'll try to post it here at some point. IIRC, it displayed evidence that Bryant didn't just give up on his team and that he actually played as well as he could. It just wasn't in the cards for LA to win that game against a superior opponent.

I have to say there is a fairly large double-standard I see applied to these players. Which happened to be the impetus for the post in the first place.

You guys are quick to qualify every Kobe performance, yet don't do the same for Malone. This was one piece of a picture -- and it wasn't something conjured up or contrived, as I knew from re-watching games in the RPOY that Kobe didn't play well a lot and Malone had more good games than one would think in those situations. I just collected the stats of those games and -- voila -- they suggest something different than the standard story. That's all.

But in the meantime, I see a lot of this:

"Kobe was awesome despite low scoring numbers." Yet no one says that about other players.
"Kobe didn't need to be good because his team couldn't win." What on earth does this mean? I've never heard this standard applied to any athlete ever at any level and it' pretty weird.

And yet absolutely no similar qualification is applied to Karl Malone. If we want to do a breakdown of all 29 of these games, we can. I've seen almost every one (all 13 of Bryant's) and frankly I didn't think he was "great" against Houston. What I do remember is him not shooting his team out of it and playing well on defense and smart on offense. But that's not a "great" game.

I forgot about the shoulder in 03. Was it a sprain? He wore the sleeve IIRC...but is that any more of a significant injury than Dwyane Wade's knee in the 2006 NBA FInals?

Speaking of which, game 7 v Phoenix. How many times does it have to be rehashed? Go re-watch the second half. It was 60-45 at halftime. Much stranger things have happened than a 15-point comeback. (Lakers fans should KNOW about 15-point comebacks). By my count, he stands idly on 27 possessions.

When have you ever seen him or another superstar do this in a game?

PS - Mystic, I had someone come up to me at a party last night and start going bonkers about how I had Dirk Nowitzki too high and that he was a choker. Fortunately, I could reel off a number of Dirk clutch moments/big games off the top of my head because he has so many.

[ronnymac2]

I'd defend Malone, too, but it doesn't seem like he needs defending in this thread. Your blogpost and subsequent posts in this thread give SOME evidence for Malone not being a choker.

"Karl Malone was not a choker" is an idea that I fully support. I believe he wasn't a choker because I remember thinking the same thing in the RPOY project, watching some elimination games, and coming to the conclusion that the Utah Jazz were just always a deeply flawed team that didn't provide Malone with the necessary offensive help to win in the playoffs. Malone isn't perfect, being a hybrid face-up big/low-post big, but I believe he was truly a good enough offensive anchor to win championships. It didn't happen, but that doesn't mean it couldn't have happened.

Statistical analysis of these games is flawed though. I mean, it shows how the two players produced, but that's about it. I agree with you that Malone wasn't a playoff choker, but only 40% of the reasoning of why I agree with you is because of Malone's stats that you showed (random , arbitrary number of 40%, but you get the idea haha). The majority reasoning is because I saw Malone play well as an individual in elimination games.

My problem is this be-all-end-all conclusion through stats that Bryant isn't good in elimination games. My problem isn't even what that says about a Bryant vs. Malone comparison; my problem is simply what that says about Bryant, period. Semi has watched all of those games and accurately showed that while Bryant has had stinkers in elimination games, he plays well for his team for the most part.

The only times I feel Bryant sucked were in 03 and 04. 03 wasn't even that bad, and he played pretty well for the whole series against SA, a series in which Bryant and O'neal had to do ALL the heavy lifting (and Bryant did it injured, too). 04, no excuse. He was awful the entire series. Other than that, win or lose, I think Bryant played to the best of his considerable abilities for each given game.

Check it out:

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/columns/story?id=5195953

[ElGee]

My problem is this be-all-end-all conclusion through stats that Bryant isn't good in elimination games. My problem isn't even what that says about a Bryant vs. Malone comparison; my problem is simply what that says about Bryant, period.

My problem is people concluding that the statistical information is a be-all-end-all. I'm not going to qualify every sentence I write down to the most rudimentary level. Heck, that's why I'm creating references on that blog to some of the more basic ideas of basketball analysis.

The idea is one I feel strongly about: individual performance is heavily conflated with team performance in sports. We have cognitive biases that remember more good ("clutch") performances in wins and wash away the ones in losses. Malone and Bryant are the two highest profile players that support that to me, and I'm throwing out a piece of information to challenge it.

The only times I feel Bryant sucked were in 03 and 04. 03 wasn't even that bad, and he played pretty well for the whole series against SA, a series in which Bryant and O'neal had to do ALL the heavy lifting (and Bryant did it injured, too). 04, no excuse. He was awful the entire series. Other than that, win or lose, I think Bryant played to the best of his considerable abilities for each given game.

Check it out:

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/columns/story?id=5195953

Well, you're actually one of my favorite posters, but I find it hard to believe that you thought his play in 06, 08 (G6), or Game 7 last year was good. C'mon.

2006: He stands idly 27 times by my count in the second half. I've never seen a superstar do this. Watch the half again.

2008: Something like 16 of his 22 shots are deep jumpers. He doesn't create much. He gets burned on defense. He just doesn't play well. There's no other real way to describe it. The notion that the game became a blowout is independent of that.

2010: Frankly, one of the worst first half performances I've ever seen. Firing fadeaways while double-teamed off the side of the backboard? As a result, his overall game was just bad. 6-24 4 TOV and shady defense is just bad.

Kudos for glasswork in the second half -- really, love to see that -- but if that is boosting the performance in your mind, then what did LeBron do in his last Cavs game? Play the game of the century? Of the millenium?

[ronnymac2]

My problem is this be-all-end-all conclusion through stats that Bryant isn't good in elimination games. My problem isn't even what that says about a Bryant vs. Malone comparison; my problem is simply what that says about Bryant, period.

My problem is people concluding that the statistical information is a be-all-end-all. I'm not going to qualify every sentence I write down to the most rudimentary level. Heck, that's why I'm creating references on that blog to some of the more basic ideas of basketball analysis.

The idea is one I feel strongly about: individual performance is heavily conflated with team performance in sports. We have cognitive biases that remember more good ("clutch") performances in wins and wash away the ones in losses. Malone and Bryant are the two highest profile players that support that to me, and I'm throwing out a piece of information to challenge it.

So you're arguing that two perceived polar opposites in terms of clutch play (or at least, effectiveness in elimination games) aren't actually polar opposites at all, but are very close to each other in that regard (both are good-to-very good, not "one is AMAZING and the other a CHOKER"). And you've deconstructed the "Why?" question, positing that Malone was given that unfair,incorrect "Choker" label and Bryant was given that unfair, incorrect "Clutch killer assassin dominant awesome" label because of team result (Jazz usually lost, Lakers usually won).


If that's the case, then I fully agree with your deconstruction of those perceptions.

I do think a contributing factors are likability/team and overall stats in the playoffs. Malone's stats went down overall in the playoffs, and the media jumped in and nailed Karl with that, especially after he had a clunker as a controversial MVP winner against the one and only Michael Jordan in 1997. He also lost in two consecutive NBA Finals to a storybook, legendary Chicago team. The last minute of the 98 Finals doesn't help his case (in the public eye, that is).

Also, Bryant is the more exciting player, and his placement on a darling NBA team as its leader and exciting player gives him some additional backing/attention. In the media, Bryant is modeled as a Jordan-type player, meaning his clutch times and competitive streak and ballsy-ness get highlighted, and his failures probably don't get as much hype as Malone's.

Those are contributing factors. Like you posit, the main factor is the team result.


That said- and this might be nit-picking, but whatever- you need to take a more nuanced look at Bryant's individual elimination games. Like these.............

The only times I feel Bryant sucked were in 03 and 04. 03 wasn't even that bad, and he played pretty well for the whole series against SA, a series in which Bryant and O'neal had to do ALL the heavy lifting (and Bryant did it injured, too). 04, no excuse. He was awful the entire series. Other than that, win or lose, I think Bryant played to the best of his considerable abilities for each given game.

Check it out:

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/columns/story?id=5195953

Well, you're actually one of my favorite posters, but I find it hard to believe that you thought his play in 06, 08 (G6), or Game 7 last year was good. C'mon.

2006: He stands idly 27 times by my count in the second half. I've never seen a superstar do this. Watch the half again.

2008: Something like 16 of his 22 shots are deep jumpers. He doesn't create much. He gets burned on defense. He just doesn't play well. There's no other real way to describe it. The notion that the game became a blowout is independent of that.

2010: Frankly, one of the worst first half performances I've ever seen. Firing fadeaways while double-teamed off the side of the backboard? As a result, his overall game was just bad. 6-24 4 TOV and shady defense is just bad.

Kudos for glasswork in the second half -- really, love to see that -- but if that is boosting the performance in your mind, then what did LeBron do in his last Cavs game? Play the game of the century? Of the millenium?

[/quote]

I actually thought Lebron played pretty damn well in game six. He dominated the glass and brought his team within striking distance in the fourth. If Mo Williams makes an absolutely wide open jumper from the free throw line, we might be saying how Lebron led a fourth quarter comeback in that game six. His teammates failed him, but I saw him play pretty well. Not his best game, but pretty well. People wonder why James went to Miami........

Kobe was fortunate enough last year to have teammates who could save his ass when he only plays pretty well, and not exceptional. Artest and Fisher made huge plays in the fourth, and then Kobe came through with some big plays, and the Lakers won. The respective games by James and Bryant were comparable I'd say. Both played pretty well, though neither was at their best. Kobe WAS fortunate enough to have better support from his teammates. Still, Kobe should be credited with playing pretty well in a game 7- win or lose.


With regards to 08, yeah, that's another stinker. Put it as a stinker. His play wasn't the reason LA lost though, as Boston annihilated LA on all cylinders in that game. Still, a stinker for Bryant.


I still have a problem with counting 06 as bad. He just dropped 50 in game six, yet his team can't get a rebound and they lose again. Bryant would obviously be hesitant to try and score a million points on this team since it's clear the Lakers can't defeat PHX when Bryant goes off. Bryant kept them within striking distance (I guess) with a second quarter explosion. He then tried to make a mature decision and initiate, get his guys involved. He knew shooting six threes a quarter the rest of the way wasn't going to produce a comeback. He tried calling on his teammates for help, and they failed. He tried to be aggressive-Kobe is spurts, but it was too late by then. PHX's offense was clicking too well.

If Kobe's teammates had helped him pull off a comeback, we'd be saying how amazingly patient Kobe was, how he had finally grown up and matured as a leader in 2006 in THAT game 7. But they failed. Like Lebron's team failed him in game six in 2010.

You want to talk perception? Kobe WAS at his peak in 2006. He knew how to play team ball in that PHX series. Look how the Lakers even got the friggin series to seven games. That was the best I've ever seen Kobe play despite what the stats say, and I've been watching the dude for a decade now. All this talk about how 06 Kobe couldn't lead the current Lakers to titles is crap. Give 06 Bryant his current supporting cast and he would never score 81 or drop 35 ppg, but he'd have his team in the finals. That perception that Kobe matured when his team started winning is ludicrous.


Bryant's 06 and 10 elimination games were not clunkers. They weren't his greatest games, but he did his best. His team failed him once and helped him once. Individually, regardless of team result (or putting it out of the picture to the best of my ability), I'll take what he gave his team those nights.

[ElGee]

So you're arguing that two perceived polar opposites in terms of clutch play (or at least, effectiveness in elimination games) aren't actually polar opposites at all, but are very close to each other in that regard (both are good-to-very good, not "one is AMAZING and the other a CHOKER"). And you've deconstructed the "Why?" question, positing that Malone was given that unfair,incorrect "Choker" label and Bryant was given that unfair, incorrect "Clutch killer assassin dominant awesome" label because of team result (Jazz usually lost, Lakers usually won).


If that's the case, then I fully agree with your deconstruction of those perceptions.

I do think a contributing factors are likability/team and overall stats in the playoffs. Malone's stats went down overall in the playoffs, and the media jumped in and nailed Karl with that, especially after he had a clunker as a controversial MVP winner against the one and only Michael Jordan in 1997. He also lost in two consecutive NBA Finals to a storybook, legendary Chicago team. The last minute of the 98 Finals doesn't help his case (in the public eye, that is).

Also, Bryant is the more exciting player, and his placement on a darling NBA team as its leader and exciting player gives him some additional backing/attention. In the media, Bryant is modeled as a Jordan-type player, meaning his clutch times and competitive streak and ballsy-ness get highlighted, and his failures probably don't get as much hype as Malone's.

Yes. Well said.

Kobe was fortunate enough last year to have teammates who could save his ass when he only plays pretty well, and not exceptional. Artest and Fisher made huge plays in the fourth, and then Kobe came through with some big plays, and the Lakers won. The respective games by James and Bryant were comparable I'd say. Both played pretty well, though neither was at their best. Kobe WAS fortunate enough to have better support from his teammates. Still, Kobe should be credited with playing pretty well in a game 7- win or lose.

I don't see how they were comparable. I have LeBron's game grading out around All-Star level and Kobe's grading out really poorly - way below average player. LeBron was probably the second best player on the court that night in Boston (if not the best). Kobe was anywhere from the 6th to the 11th best player, depending on how one values shot attempts, minutes played and rebounding.

Celtics shot 29% against LeBron in guarding situations. LeBron's fouls led to 0 FTs.
Celtics shot 86% against Kobe in guarding situations. Kobe fouls led to 3 Boston FT's.

James had 3 steals and a block.
Bryant had 1 steals and 0 blocks.

They created a drew fouls comparably, and the defensive errors were a wash.

6-24 with 4 turnovers is dreadful. It's a lot worse than 3-12 or 1-6. And there aren't any misses in there from tips or blocks at the rim or whatnot. 16 of Bryant's shots were outside 16 feet! Most were contested (if not all) and some were double or triple-teamed. 37.6% TS is a serious problem for an offense when it involves 30.6 "attempts" (in 76 possessions, no less).

LeBron was 8-21 with 9 turnovers. That's not great, but the shooting wasn't a negative (26.3 attempts, 51.4% TS, 92 possessions). With a 4 or 5 turnover game this is bordering on a classic performance, if only because of the triple-double (which I don't give too much attention to).

I still have a problem with counting 06 as bad. He just dropped 50 in game six, yet his team can't get a rebound and they lose again. Bryant would obviously be hesitant to try and score a million points on this team since it's clear the Lakers can't defeat PHX when Bryant goes off. Bryant kept them within striking distance (I guess) with a second quarter explosion. He then tried to make a mature decision and initiate, get his guys involved. He knew shooting six threes a quarter the rest of the way wasn't going to produce a comeback. He tried calling on his teammates for help, and they failed. He tried to be aggressive-Kobe is spurts, but it was too late by then. PHX's offense was clicking too well.

I understand where you're coming from here, because the rest of the series he played quite well. We've discussed this before I believe. The issue is G6 wasn't an elimination game, so I don't see what it has to do with G7. I'm not saying bad elimination games = bad series. I'm not even saying that elimination games define clutch. I'm just looking at elimination games.

In the first half of that game, I don't really have an issue with his play. I can't even remember his numbers at halftime, but I thought he played fine. That's 50% of a game, though. HIs second half was ridiculous. I've never cared to ascribe labels, because it's moot to me. What did happen was a No. 1 player effectively played like an injured 35 year-old. He jogged down the court on most possessions and stood there. And that's it. I have no idea how that equates to a good game. (And Bryant happens to be extremely good and active off the ball.)

[ronnymac2]

Sorry for the delay....

As long as we agree on the first part, then OK. There isn't much to argue over. We'll just be arguing individual games. Like....


...the 6-24 game. I'll agree that Lebron's game was better individually. Maybe that comparison wasn't totally accurate. I just read the Kobe part in Bill Simmons's book, and he talks about how Bryant's game actually sucked, and through the first 75% of the game, he played like a guy who was just trying to play hero and was failing miserably. Thinking about on that night, I remember having a similar feeling myself at that point in the game.

However, even Simmons, who isn't exactly a Kobe fan, admits that Kobe went into -do what is best for the team mode, whether that be shoot or pass/initiate/spread floor- mode in the fourth quarter.

Understanding that the game was still in reach at that point, Bryant changed his style of play at an important point in game (hey, better late than never), and he helped his team. Especially in a game where nobody shot the ball particularly well (it was a slug-fest game, much like game 7 of the 2005 finals). Three people shot 50% from the field in the whole game. The tone of the game on both sides was scrappy. Not that that totally excuses Bryant's awful shooting, but it does provide more context for his overall performance for 48 minutes.

[ElGee]

But that's not a good game.

Take a step back, and replace Kobe's name with someone you don't think too highly of or dislike. Then ask yourself, at what point *suddenly* playing the 4th quarter in "do what is best for team" mode (after doing what exactly for 3 quarters) constitutes a good game. Then ask yourself, if that player did play that way in the quarter but shot 1-4 and didn't stand out defensively, how good would you even consider that quarter?

Yes it was an ugly game. Yes, Kobe helped hit the boards and his shot selection was way better in the 4th. But it was a 6-24 4 TOV *game.* It was by far his worst game of the series and the 2010 playoffs.

I'm only driving this home because the genesis of my post was cognitive bias, and I think that's in play here. When Semi writes:

The lack of analysis really bothers me

Then provides the following "analysis" on the game:

As for game 7, people love them some "6-24" in order to discredit Kobe, but that's a bunch of hogwash. He shot the ball poorly in the first half, but this was a very physical, grind it out type game where just about everyone shot poorly. His defense and rebounding were fantastic, and when the Lakers needed him to score in the 4th quarter he delivered. See, when guys like MJ have performances like this (and they did), all you here is talk about intangibles and how players elevate their games in other areas. This is one of those cases where Kobe picked it up in other areas to compensate for poor shooting, and the result was that he ended up with a 23/15 game to help secure the championship.

That's bias at its finest. His defense was decidedly NOT fantastic. The game was physical and grinding, but somehow Gasol, Allen and Artest all played well. And it's a bizarre argument because Bryant tookk 15 free throws...but Garnett and Pierce (12-28 combined) took 0. Fisher had his usual good contributions. Glen Davis 27 good bench minutes of defense and rebounding. Somehow because Bryant is claimed to have done "what it took to win" and thus he played well.

He didn't. That's the point in the first place.

[MCVince]

I just don't get why people have to say Kobe is that good.

He's one of the best today, but come on, people put him like the best of all times!!!! Really? :/

People say MJ also had bad shooting nights. Sure, everyone does. But MJ had seasons above 50% shooting... does Kobe have them?

The FG % is really important and Kobe fails it a lot usually (comparing to the greatest guys).

Comparing with LBJ game 6 vs Celtics... the difference is obvious: LeBron on a really bad night and injured can grab 19rebs, make 10 assists and score over 20 points with not a great FG %... and his team loses badly. When LeBron had a bad shooting night at the Cavs, the games weren't even close. When Kobe has it with LA... they can still beat top teams. Basketball is a team sports, get that. Kobe is really good, plays in a great teams and wins championships. This doesn't make him similar to MJ!

[ahonui06]

Particularly when there are games/series that are (rightfully) weighted differently in the court of public opinion, series' where you're the overwhelming favorite with HCA and a better roster being one of those examples.

This particular example shows the lack of knowledge more than anything else. The Warriors won all 3 regular season matches against the Mavericks. They had a huge matchup advantage in the BACKCOURT! Even if Nowitzki would have played as efficient as usual, the Mavericks would have lost due to their lack of perimeter and transition defense by their backcourt players. Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson and Jason Richardson made the majority of the points with a higher efficiency, because they overmatched Devin Harris, Jason Terry and Josh Howard in terms of size, strength and athleticism.
And that's not an outlier either. The Heat series was lost due to the same thing. Against the Suns in 2005 the backcourt was the problem, against the Kings one year before also. Go and watch the 2008 series against the Hornets, again the perimeter on defense is the problem, in 2009 against the Nuggets and 2010 against the Spurs it's the same.

Regarding the Heat series it should be noted that the Heat had a better SRS in games with Wade and Shaquille O'Neal than the Mavericks. Which means they were the better team. And in the end the Mavericks were one bad call (on the road) and two Howard and/or Terry mades (going 14 of 41 instead of 12 of 41 while a lot of those misses were wide open shots) away from winning a championship.

I'm not sure why you approached my post as if I were contending Dirk wasn't clutch either.

Why? Because those critiques are well known and I don't see the point of bringing them up in the way you did it. Especially with the comment, that sometimes the aggregated view would be misleading.

All evidence shows that Nowitzki was quite clutch during his career so far. He usually ranks in the top during clutch situations by 82games.com, he has numerous clutch performances in the playoffs including a 50 points outburst in which he completely outscored the Suns in the 4th quarter to secure a win in the WCF. He plays better in average in elimination games, the biggest pressure situations. And he even has a winning record in those games.
The Mavericks are usually getting more wins than expected due to the fact that they outscore their opponents in close games. His +/- per 48 minutes over the last couple of seasons during clutch situations is huge ever since 2004/05 when Nash left:

Code: Select all

2011: +41.9
2010: +28.7
2009: +16.3
2008: +16.5
2007: +29.5
2006: +16.6
2005: +22.0

In average the Mavericks outscore their opponents in close games by an margin of +22.7 while Nowitzki is on the court over a 7 year span (962 minutes sample). To understand that number better: In the remaining 24138 minutes the Mavericks outscored their opponents by +4.0 per 48 minutes.
Making the same thing for Bryant we get:

Code: Select all

2011: -16.8
2010:  +6.9
2009: +33.7
2008: +10.9
2007:  -0.6
2006:  -3.1
2005:  +1.0

During that time the Lakers outscored their opponents by an average margin of +5.9 per 48 minutes during close games (994 minutes sample) while they outscored their opponents by +3.3 per 48 minutes in the rest of the time.

There are also enough game winners and made late game shots. He has a way better conversation rate of those shots than Bryant for example.

As you can see the examples of the Heat series and the Warriors series are outliers. There is no indication overall that Nowitzki isn't at least as clutch as Bryant.

DIRK's clutch. Check out the clutch stats on 82games.com from last year if you don't believe me.

[ronnymac2]

But that's not a good game.

Take a step back, and replace Kobe's name with someone you don't think too highly of or dislike. Then ask yourself, at what point *suddenly* playing the 4th quarter in "do what is best for team" mode (after doing what exactly for 3 quarters) constitutes a good game. Then ask yourself, if that player did play that way in the quarter but shot 1-4 and didn't stand out defensively, how good would you even consider that quarter?

Yes it was an ugly game. Yes, Kobe helped hit the boards and his shot selection was way better in the 4th. But it was a 6-24 4 TOV *game.* It was by far his worst game of the series and the 2010 playoffs.

I'm only driving this home because the genesis of my post was cognitive bias, and I think that's in play here. When Semi writes:

The lack of analysis really bothers me

Then provides the following "analysis" on the game:

As for game 7, people love them some "6-24" in order to discredit Kobe, but that's a bunch of hogwash. He shot the ball poorly in the first half, but this was a very physical, grind it out type game where just about everyone shot poorly. His defense and rebounding were fantastic, and when the Lakers needed him to score in the 4th quarter he delivered. See, when guys like MJ have performances like this (and they did), all you here is talk about intangibles and how players elevate their games in other areas. This is one of those cases where Kobe picked it up in other areas to compensate for poor shooting, and the result was that he ended up with a 23/15 game to help secure the championship.

That's bias at its finest. His defense was decidedly NOT fantastic. The game was physical and grinding, but somehow Gasol, Allen and Artest all played well. And it's a bizarre argument because Bryant tookk 15 free throws...but Garnett and Pierce (12-28 combined) took 0. Fisher had his usual good contributions. Glen Davis 27 good bench minutes of defense and rebounding. Somehow because Bryant is claimed to have done "what it took to win" and thus he played well.

He didn't. That's the point in the first place.

It constitutes a good game when Kobe does it.


Nah, but seriously....Okay, here is my problem with you positing that Bryant played badly. You're essentially trying to say that if a lead player plays like that all the time (horrible shooting and shot selection, decent defense, great rebounding, decent initiating), his team will not win playoff games, or even REG SEA games, let alone game 7 of the NBA Finals. Because of this, therefore, Bryant's elimination game was awful and the only reason why his struggles aren't played up more is because the team won.

To an extent I agree.

The thing is, you can't prove that if Kobe played like this at all times, the Lakers would suck or that his team would struggle. It isn't a given that they wouldn't win the championship. It can't be proven.

Now, you'll probably respond by saying that I can't necessarily prove that Kobe playing that way does result in good play and in wins. You're right- I can't really. The only thing we have to go by is what happened in THIS game. THIS game 7 is all we have. That is all we have to come back to.

Did Kobe play well enough to win THIS game as a lead dog WITH sufficient help? Surely he did considering LAL winning the game actually happened.

I know you don't like that response because it MIGHT be giving Bryant credit that he doesn't deserve and serving to prove YOUR original point about how winning affects people's perceptions (in this case, my own).

But maybe Bryant does deserve that credit. You watch the game and you come away thinking that Kobe did enough as the lead dog at some crucial moments to win THIS GAME. THIS GAME'S instances and moments and situations. (That's a big reason why watching the game is still imo the best tool to evaluate what happened...it has its faults like any tool does, but its just as reliable/faulty as any stat)




I could be wrong here. Maybe Bryant sucked enough through the first 3 quarters that he can't be forgiven despite his penance (the fourth qt). I'm just arguing that when looking at Bryant's game 7 in 2010, or any game ever really, there is a fine line between having a good game and a bad game. On a stat sheet, you could technically switch possessions in the second quarter with possessions in the fourth quarter, and the end result will be exactly the same as long the result of each possession ended the same. Or you can move a player's made baskets all into one quarter and have him shoot "0 for his remaining shots (missed shots)".

You can't do that in real life, however. The game is more nuanced than that. At least that's how I feel. That's what guides me in my belief that Bryant didn't have an amazing game 7, but a pretty good game. Like I said, I could be wrong.

[ElGee]

Yes, as you said, you're making my point. It's veering off topic, but fundamentally speaking...

You're essentially trying to say that if a lead player plays like that all the time (horrible shooting and shot selection, decent defense, great rebounding, decent initiating), his team will not win playoff games, or even REG SEA games, let alone game 7 of the NBA Finals.

What I'm saying, IN ANY EVALUATION, is that his team will be less likely to win if he plays like that. The worse he plays, the less likely they are to win.

You're explanation is fudging that likelihood. It's a breakdown in Bayesian logic. It's the very bias I'm asserting when one guy's team wins and the other's loses.

Think about it this way. 5 players (at any time) on the court make up a team, and their collective performance results in how the team plays, leading to a win or loss. But the responsibility for that result can be distributed in a thousand different ways. On a normal night, Bryant may be responsible for 33% of the team's "goodness" that leads to a win. We call that a good game because he does stuff like play good defense and offense.

Sometimes, he plays like garbage, and by definition, gives his team a significantly smaller chance of winning or even hurts their chances of winning. But the team can still win! If they do, it doesn't change how Bryant played. At all. Even in the 4th quarter when the good plays "feel" more important because he's doing "enough" to help win. The game is only close by virtue of circumstances outside of Bryant's play.

I don't think I need to go further because you get the idea.

[Chicago76]

If you want evidence that “good Bryant” leads to more Laker wins than “bad Bryant”, it’s out there. Game Score isn’t perfect, but at least it gives us a consistent measuring stick of good vs. bad game to game. Looking at the 2009-10 season only (to avoid different supporting casts over the years) to analyze the Game 7 impact from last year:

Bryant’s game score that game was 9.9. Define bad game as anything with a game score of under 15, and an average to good game as anything 15 and above. From the regular season last year:
Bad game W-L = 14-12 and other games are 37-10. Throw out all of the game where Gasol didn’t play and bad game W-L = 10-7 while the record in other games is 30-9. Looking at all games where Bryant played 36+ minutes (presumably because the game was already easily won): Lakers record with Bad Bryant = 9-9, while in the other games, they were 26-10. Restrict the 36+ minute games to those only in which Gasol played and the Lakers were 8-6 when Bryant had a bad game and 21-9 in all other games. Coincidentally, when Bryant didn’t play, the Lakers were 6-3. Granted, that’s a very small sample size, but it could be said that the Lakers are better off without Bryant than when he puts up a stinker.

It's not exactly a scientific study, but the results are fairly obvious. If Bryant's play game to game doesn't really have an impact on the Lakers win/loss columns, then he's one of the most overpaid players in the league.

[ronnymac2]

Yes, as you said, you're making my point. It's veering off topic, but fundamentally speaking...

You're essentially trying to say that if a lead player plays like that all the time (horrible shooting and shot selection, decent defense, great rebounding, decent initiating), his team will not win playoff games, or even REG SEA games, let alone game 7 of the NBA Finals.

What I'm saying, IN ANY EVALUATION, is that his team will be less likely to win if he plays like that. The worse he plays, the less likely they are to win.

You're explanation is fudging that likelihood. It's a breakdown in Bayesian logic. It's the very bias I'm asserting when one guy's team wins and the other's loses.

Think about it this way. 5 players (at any time) on the court make up a team, and their collective performance results in how the team plays, leading to a win or loss. But the responsibility for that result can be distributed in a thousand different ways. On a normal night, Bryant may be responsible for 33% of the team's "goodness" that leads to a win. We call that a good game because he does stuff like play good defense and offense.

Sometimes, he plays like garbage, and by definition, gives his team a significantly smaller chance of winning or even hurts their chances of winning. But the team can still win! If they do, it doesn't change how Bryant played. At all. Even in the 4th quarter when the good plays "feel" more important because he's doing "enough" to help win. The game is only close by virtue of circumstances outside of Bryant's play.

I don't think I need to go further because you get the idea.

Yeah I get it.

I think one must look at everything on a case by case basis. Like you said, distribution of credit can go X amount of ways.

Regarding my argument about how some plays "feel" more important down the stretch.....I still contend that that is valid. It's definitely not as important as most make it out to be, but I think we get that feeling for a less important yet valid reason. Aside from glorifying a superstar, it's because in reality a superstar player is the only one on the team capable of making a certain play. In the fourth quarter of A game seven, if a Celtic-like defense keyed in on a Ron Artest and he tried to play pick-n-roll and made a play (a kick-out, a tough shot, whatever), is that a reasonable scenario? That couldn't happen. It COULD I guess, but it couldn't. With Kobe, it would. Because he's really the only one capable of doing it then.

It kind of goes back to what I talk about sometimes about a player being a CONSTANT for his team....even when Kobe's shot is off for the first three quarters and it's his team that is keeping them in the ball-game, they go to Kobe (or insert whatever superstar) to make the big plays. Why does this always happen? Because the game isn't played in a business notebook or a computer that can define Kobe as hurting the team and cutting him off accordingly- Kobe isn't going to get physically propelled/ejected off the court because he is hurting his team with his play in the first three quarters. He's still the one most capable of making something happen.

Yes, we remember those plays. Part of it is definitely because of the reason that you are rightfully exposing. But SOME of the reason why we remember is legitimate.

Kobe absolutely should not get praise heaped upon him for exquisite play in that game. I've already said this wasn't his best game. His team kept LA in it for 3 qts. And he's lucky Artest or Fisher or whoever hit that 3 that he created. He still deserves credit for being what he is and being his team's CONSTANT and enabling his team to do that IN THAT SPECIFIC GAME 7.

Kobe still deserves credit. The amount the media and others give him? Hell no. But he deserves credit for that game 7 for being what he is.

[flyinhigh99]

Dude that's really cool thanks for sharing that.