The flawed theory of inflated stats

[Clippersfan86]

I know you guys made light of it.. and a few went with immature insults... but only reason I used Griffin as 1 of my 2 examples is because i'm sick of hearing from everyone on this board that Love and Griffin's stats are inflated because they are on "bad" teams. It's complete bull. As a poster above said it's thrown around WAY too much here. If that qualifies as me being a Blake groupie.. FINE. My point of the thread was the general idea that anyone with big stats on a losing team... isn't of equal value to a big stat player on a winning team, which is complete ****. A good player is a good player. For those saying they never said it.. i'm not talking about you obviously..

I'm a Clipper fan therefor yes a huge Griffin fan. Just like the D Rose fans... and Dwight fans on this board that are in large bunches. I never understood the point of wasting time to go off topic on a thread just to insult someone. If you have nothing relevant to say.. stay the hell off the thread. I'm surprised with all the mods supposedly cracking down on it.. that it's still happening so much. It's really easy stuff. Common sense 101.

[Clippersfan86]

Yes, there are diminishing returns in rebounds. If you have a team with Fat Lever - Alvin Robertson - Dennis Rodman - Kevin Love - Wes Unseld then none of those guys are going to look elite rebounders. They won't have the individual numbers to show for it. There's only a finite amount of rebounding opportunities. On the other hand, team rebounding would be GOAT and win lots of games by itself.

So, being paired with weak rebounders help, but sometimes a bad team can have great rebounding and vice-versa.

Other than that, it depends on the stat and the action measured. Stats like PPG or pretty much anything measured per game (or per minutes) are easy to be inflated. Stats per possession are less prone to be inflated, but it happens. Some systems inflate (or deflate) certain stats - for example, having great spacing on the floor helps PGs like Nash or Felton quite a bit. The kind of teammates you have. The amount of time you keep the ball on your hands. If you're asked to create shots or not. The type of shots players are asked to take.

Great points. Systems and certain teammate mixes can definitely inflate and deflate stats. I forgot to add assists are definitely a stat that's inflated or deflated by the talent around you with teammates so my point isn't including assists.

[tmd_10]

Saying that stats are inflated doesn't necessarily reflect badly on the player. It certainly makes sense that players be asked to create more when there are less than viable options around them. That being said the Clippers have plenty of offensive firepower so I don't think this really applies to Griffin.

[Chicago76]

Ok so lately i've been hearing a lot of BS about how players getting stats on less talented or deep teams wouldn't get them on good teams. A lot of people have personally been telling me that Blake's stats are inflated due to Kaman being injured. My question is why did he tie his career high in rebounds last night.. with 18 despite DJ starting next to him grabbing 20? That proves it's untrue. I've said it before great players will get their stats no matter who they are next to.

You might as well say: Chicago76 said Griffin’s rebounding stats are inflated a bit due to Kaman being out. You seem to take this as some huge slight of Griffin’s overall ability, so just to spell it out for you: Griffin hasn’t even played half of a season yet, so sample size is a pretty big issue regardless.

With Kaman in the lineup playing normal minutes, Griffin’s offensive rebounding was off the charts (4.9 per 36 vs. 3.5 per 36 with no Kaman) while his defensive rebounding was reduced a bit with Kaman on (9.2 per 36 without vs. 6.6 with Kaman). It makes perfect sense for these to go in opposite ways. Kaman on offense will generate a lot of close misses for Griffin to collect, especially when he’s shooting poorly. With Kaman out, the O relies more upon distance shooting and the rebounds don’t fall as close to the basket. Defensively, with Kaman in the game, both players are rebounding near the basket. With only so many boards to go around, their respective individual defensive rebounding will decline. Unless you think that Griffin will collect every board that falls between them, which is ridiculous. With a healthy Kaman on the court, I would expect Griffin to get 4 offensive boards and maybe 7.5 defensive boards per 36. I can’t see him getting the 5 offensive boards he was getting with Kaman playing because there was one game out of 7 there where Kaman shot horribly (4-18) where Griffin gathered 9 rebounds offensively…presumably a lot of Kaman misses. There is a sample size issue, so what follows is only an estimate. Then again, Griffin's entire career to date has a sample size issue.

20 pts, 11.5 rebounds, and maybe 3 assists per 36 (with fewer kick out opportunities for Griffin as more of the O will go to Kaman inside) is hardly offensive to Griffin’s abilities, even if you seem to think so. It’s not as good as the 22.3-12.7-3.7 he’s putting up with Kaman shelved, but it’s not that different. That said, this day to day obsession with Griffin is bordering on unhealthy. Tying your career high in rebounds one night isn’t a sign that stat inflation is inherently wrong. Just like someone saying that Griffin going 4-6 from 3 pt range means he is showing he’s a developing threat at range. It’s 6 stinking shots. I’m also reading things like Griffin could be the third greatest PF of all time behind Duncan and Malone. The guy has played less than half of a season. He plays with a lot of energy on a rehabilitated knee and hasn’t even hit the rookie wall yet. What he’s done so far is nothing short of incredible, but let’s not jump the gun. For reference, the 8 most similar 20-22 year old rookies who played some PF w/ their similarity scores based upon MPG, PER, ORB%, DRB%, TS%, AST%, BLK%, USG%:

.951 Terry Cummings
.910 Tim Duncan
.895 Larry Johnson
.888 Elton Brand
.888 Chris Webber
.878 Clark Kellogg
.868 Marques Johnson (PF-SF his rookie season)
.851 Pau Gasol

There is a pretty big drop in similarity after this with guys like David Greenwood, Xavier McDaniel, Barkley, ‘Reef, and Odom following. That’s great company (1 all time great, 1 probable HOFer, 1 borderline HOFer, 3 more in the group of the very best non-HOFers, 1 very good player, and one tragic career), but there are some cautionary tales there. The 5 best athletes of the bunch were Cummings, Webber, LJ, Marques Johnson, and Kellogg. Every single one of them suffered severe injuries and all of them weren’t the same after those injuries. With no injuries, I’m guessing at least 3 of them would have a plaque in Springfield. None of them do. Medicine has come a long way since these guys’ surgeries, but Griffin needs that 18-20 foot range at least to make him a reliable SF-PF hybrid if the knees do go. He has a lot of time to do so, and I think he probably will over time, BUT it’s really early.

[Deus]

Stats are based on MPG, not the teams the players are on. Put any all-star player on another team, bad or good, and they still dominate stats wise. Its minutes that the coaches dole out that makes up stats.

Many coaches take minutes away from players because they suck on defense, and on where they need to be when a play is called. Not listening. Not caring. Stephen Jackson, AI, and Marbury are all guilty of it.

[ElGee]

Stats are based on MPG, not the teams the players are on. Put any all-star player on another team, bad or good, and they still dominate stats wise. Its minutes that the coaches dole out that makes up stats.

Many coaches take minutes away from players because they suck on defense, and on where they need to be when a play is called. Not listening. Not caring. Stephen Jackson, AI, and Marbury are all guilty of it.

Hmm. Stats are incredibly influenced by team circumstance. Who has the ball a lot (assists/turnovers). Who can create open shots for a teammate (shooting %). Who shoots the most (Pts). It's why the most consistent offensive stat from team to team is REBOUNDING. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7220