I've been posting for a few months here at RealGM but this is my first foray into the intimidating Statistical Analysis forum.
I write at IndyCornrows and at my own site [url]Hickory-High.com[/url]. I've been playing with this stat I call Expected Points at HickoryHigh. Expected Points uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This point differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals. The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.
It's not that different than just looking at a player's FG% from different areas of the floor, but I like the context of looking at in terms of points. I shared this stat in the APBR forum and received limited feedback, I'd love more if anyone has thoughts.
I just finished a profile of Derrick Rose relying primarily on this stat. Here's a few of the things I found:
His point differential has increased slightly at the rim, on three pointers and on free throws but his declined everywhere else. This has led his overall point differential to drop from 0.82 to 0.53. This is obviously a small decline and he’s still in the positive range, but seems to run counter to the common perception that Rose has taken his offensive performance to another level this season.
The mid and long-range jumpshot is generally one of the most inefficient shots in the game. For Rose it’s actually been quite a potent weapon the past few seasons. Last season he scored 0.99 more points per 40 than expected on jumpers from 10-23ft. This season he’s scoring 0.13 less points per 40 than expected on shots from the same areas. That’s a decrease of 1.12 points in an area where his ability to score efficiently made him very unique.
One other interesting thing is that this may be one of the rare cases where a team is better off with its star scoring less efficiently. Having the three point shot in his arsenal creates much better spacing for his teammates and allows him driving angles with defenders forcing to close out more aggressively on him. This has helped his playmaking and assist numbers terrificly. Assists are factored into a player’s Individual Offensive Rating and ,despite scoring slightly less efficiently, Rose’s ORtg. has gone from a 106 last season to a 110 this season. This has carried over to his team which has brought last year’s ORtg. of 103.5 to a 105.9 this season.
If anyone has thoughts on the usefulness or validty of this statistical tool I would welcome thoughts. here's the link to the whole Derrick Rose piece:
http://hickory-high.com/2011/01/12/expe ... rick-rose/