Hollinger wrote:• Long big man who is very effective finisher at basket. Good shot-blocker.
• Poor defender due to lack of strength and high base. Fouls constantly.
• Limited shooting range and no post game. Gets points on "garbage" baskets.
I was skeptical of Johnson's contract because I didn't think he could stay on the floor long enough to make his high-percentage shooting of much benefit. But last season he cut the fouls enough to average 25.7 minutes per game; while his defense remained a negative, his 17.67 PER offset it.
Johnson still fouls way too much -- only seven power forwards were found guilty more often -- but his rate of one every 7.0 minutes at least makes it plausible to start him. Johnson was also guilty of the defensive lowlight of the year for Toronto, which is saying something given this team's porous D: Against New Jersey, he allowed the ponderously slow Brook Lopez to catch the ball at midcourt, breeze past him off the dribble and dunk on Andrea Bargnani.
Johnson's Synergy Stats numbers were poor as well, and he had a bad habit of showing to help on one side of a screen only to watch helplessly as the dribbler went the other way. His biggest impediment, however, is his lack of strength and high base, which leaves him at a constant disadvantage in the paint. He can block shots, though, ranking sixth among power forwards in blocks per minute.
Those long legs are a plus on offense, as he moves well, draws fouls and is an expert finisher who ranked fourth among power forwards in true shooting percentage. He also added a midrange set shot this past season, and while the windup is slow it was accurate -- he made 41.9 percent of his long 2s. Another nice plus was his career-best 78.8 percent mark from the line.
Meanwhile, RAPM has him as one of the better defensive bigs in the league. While the obvious RAPM caveats are that he plays low(ish) minutes and sometimes subs for Bargs, the counter is that his defensive RAPM improvement has been very steady, and he plays a lot of his minutes with Bargs.
So...Hollinger says Amir is a poor defender. RAPM says he's a good defender. Which is it?
