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Best website to access advanced statistics?

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Post#21 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Thu Jul 26, 2012 4:15 pm by EvanZ

-Kees- wrote:^How exactly is that calculated? And is there only RAPM stats for this year?


Do you want "exactly" or "kinda sorta"? I gave the "kinda sorta" answer in my primer (towards the end):

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/advanced-stats-primer/

It's a regularized version of adjusted +/- (APM). Basically, it decreases the variance of predictions that you would make with APM, which results in a lower overall prediction error.

Those RAPM ratings I linked to are a weighted multi-year result. Here are the single-year 2012 results:

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking12_no_prior

I'm also calculating adjusted four-factor +/-, which is another way to do it:

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2012/05/ ... g-to-a4pm/
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Post#22 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:03 pm by -Kees-

^How exactly does it decrease the variance? What happens to the stat/whats added to make it better than regular APM?

Also, thats a great blog. I read a whole bunch of posts you made, it's great work.

For anyone...I'm looking for a stat, basically, I'm wondering for each turnover, how often does it lead to a fast break basket attempt. So for each turnover, how often does the other team get out on the fast break and attempt a shot? I can't find it.
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Post#23 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Sat Jul 28, 2012 9:27 pm by EvanZ

-Kees- wrote:^How exactly does it decrease the variance? What happens to the stat/whats added to make it better than regular APM?



As part of the regression a Lagrange multiplier ("lambda") is added as a penalty term to shrink variance. The value of "lambda" is chosen through cross-validation to minimize prediction error. It's really very common now:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tikhonov_regularization
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Post#24 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:54 pm by drejeronfire

Does anyone know where I can find play-by-play data for the 2004 NBA Finals?
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Post#25 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:14 pm by SideshowBob

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Post#26 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:50 pm by drejeronfire

Thank you... For some reason I never knew you could find play-by-play data on basketball-reference :lol: !
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Post#27 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:46 pm by ag101

I've always wondered, how do these stat guys compile all of the statistics onto one spreadsheet/data set to be able to analyse/compare?

I've got some good knowledge of SPSS, Excel, SAS... Learning R currently.. But the actual retrieving of the data has always eluded me..
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Post#28 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:12 pm by 12footrim

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Post#29 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Wed Sep 19, 2012 10:55 am by Rod700

The RAPM is enlightening, but I'd also like to know how they determine Defensive Ratings for individual players. I can find plenty on how it is calculated for teams, but not for individuals. I appreciate any help. Thanks!
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Post#30 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Fri Sep 21, 2012 12:25 am by Amen316

Re: Best website to access advanced statistics?

Postby ag101 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:46 pm
I've always wondered, how do these stat guys compile all of the statistics onto one spreadsheet/data set to be able to analyse/compare?

I've got some good knowledge of SPSS, Excel, SAS... Learning R currently.. But the actual retrieving of the data has always eluded me..

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If you are able to program with IBM SPSS and SAS you are on the forefront of what teams are looking for, however it has been my dealing that truly understanding the mission one is trying to accomplish and how to throw out good stats from misleading ones is truly the highest prize.
Excel is nice because its compartments allow for easy brain memory, the problem is many times it is a computer RAM hog and the program itself seems limited once you enter a good amount of data.
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Post#31 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:50 pm by Rod700

Does anyone know where I can find assist to turnover career stats?
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Post#32 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Fri Sep 21, 2012 3:15 pm by Rod700

EvanZ wrote:
Rod700 wrote:What is the best stat to determine a player's defensive impact? I don't like stats that incorporate blocks and steals, and would prefer something focused on the offensive production of the player he is guarding. I realize this is difficult though as zone defenses and picks reduce the clarity of which player is responsible for guarding which player. I would think that, as a result, we would be regulating to looking at team defensive statistics with a player on and off the floor. However, the advanced stats on nba.com due break out an individual players performance against another individual, player, so it seems possible to individualize the impact of a single player. I just can't find anything that quantifies how well a player does at holding other players below their average FG% or EFG% for example. Any thoughts on the best means of determining individual defensive impact?


Defense RAPM.

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking_rec


Thanks for this, but I'm not quite sure how to interpret the numbers on that site. Can you give me a brief description, like the offense is X per Y, the defense is X per Y, and thus the total is X per Y?

EDIT: Let me add one other question that would help me get the basics down. In that link why are we adding defense to offense, instead of subtracting defense from offense like we would with Ortg and Drtg?
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Post#33 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:19 pm by blabla

The listed value is what the player brings the team over an average player, if he'd play the entire game.
So, if you replaced an average player on any team with Nowitzki, their offense should be 4.8 points better per game if Nowitzki plays 100 offensive possessions every game. If Nowitzki would play 100 defensive possessions per game, he'd improve his team's defense by 3.2 points per game.
For Nowitzki to help your team by 8 points per game he'd have to play the entire game (100 offensive possessions and 100 defensive possessions). In reality, no one probably plays more than 150 possessions total per game.

Whether we add defense to offense or just subtract it: that's just semantics. In case of this metric positive just always means "good"
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Post#34 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:03 pm by EvanZ

blabla wrote:
Whether we add defense to offense or just subtract it: that's just semantics. In case of this metric positive just always means "good"


Exactly. Positive on both offense and defense correlates with an *increase* in total point differential, which is what we're after.
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Post#35 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Tue Sep 25, 2012 6:04 am by wiLQ

Rod700 wrote:Does anyone know where I can find assist to turnover career stats?

I was convinced http://www.basketball-reference.com has it but they don't. Good catch.
Maybe you should suggest them this improvement?
I would guess it will be easy to add and I've proposed too many suggestions ;-)
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Post#36 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Sat Nov 3, 2012 1:07 pm by Sedale Threatt

Is anybody else's Synergy Sports membership screwed up? Not sure if I'm just doing something wrong -- always a good possibility -- or if I bought the wrong membership tier, but the 2012-13 games are not yet accessible for me.
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Post#37 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:11 am by branny

Sedale Threatt wrote:Is anybody else's Synergy Sports membership screwed up? Not sure if I'm just doing something wrong -- always a good possibility -- or if I bought the wrong membership tier, but the 2012-13 games are not yet accessible for me.


As a member of Synergy Sports, are you able to access any type of rankings? What I'm interested is how many post up or isolation possessions a team has compared to others and how effective they are at that category. It'd allow me to have a slightly better understanding of every team's offense. I realise that it's possible to manually do this by searching every team but another feature I'd like to see would be rankings of all the players but this would require a lot of time that I do not necessarily have.

Thanks
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Post#38 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Sat Jan 5, 2013 7:00 am by branny

Hmm no luck with that.. would really like an answer for my question mysynergy members! :(
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Post#39 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Fri Feb 1, 2013 12:32 pm by jman3134

http://basketballvalue.com/index.php Is this website so last year with the xRAPM out now? (and I say that in gest b/c they only have last year's numbers) Can someone (Evan) explain the difference in APM vs. xRAPM?
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Post#40 Re: Best website to access advanced statistic
Fri Feb 1, 2013 10:05 pm by EvanZ

jman3134 wrote:http://basketballvalue.com/index.php Is this website so last year with the xRAPM out now? (and I say that in gest b/c they only have last year's numbers) Can someone (Evan) explain the difference in APM vs. xRAPM?


To the first question, the guy who ran basketball-value (Aaron Barzilai) now is the head stats guy for Philly. He probably won't be updating the site going forward (I spoke to him over the phone, and while he didn't rule it out, I would say he sounded very doubtful about it).

To your second question, it's really fairly complicated. In a nutshell, RAPM is the regularized form of APM. RAPM is a better predictor than APM. xRAPM tries to use box score stats to improve the predictability of RAPM. (Apparently) it is a better predictor than pure RAPM.
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