Did Shaquille O'Neal have the best multi-year peak of anyone since Jordan?
Did Kobe Bryant play on the best teams of any superstar of his generation?
Did Kevin Garnett play on the worst teams of any superstar of his generation?
Did Jason Kidd's teams fall apart without him?
Did Allen Iverson really help the 76ers that much?
Below are a few cursory bits of data to answer those questions. Using NBA.com data, we now have 16 seasons of on/off (1997-present). Here are the career playoff on/off numbers of the most notable players from that period:
Sorted by just On performance:
Sorted by Off performance:
Obviously, time is a huge variable in this equation as some of these figures span 15 seasons. The best 5-year stretches (5 consecutive postseasons played):
The 5-year stretches are still relatively small samples, although for most players they are more consistent and interesting samples. Most players also had their best on/off stretches in what are often considered the hearts of their prime.
With that said, my general take on this numbers:
(1) Off is interesting, although sample-size is an issue usually
(2) On is really interesting, because regardless of how much a player causes it, we can at least isolate the performance of teams with superstars on the court.
Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
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Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
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Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
You should have posted that in the player comparisons forums. Good threads get buried in this forum.
Is there a reason why you chose minutes per 48 instead of per 100 possessions?
Do you have an excel spreadsheet with this data?
I'm a huge fan of on performance (for stars) because there is less variance in it. You aren't worried about garbage time or time faced vs. backups. As long as they play at least 30 MPG, they are facing decent competition. You can get a true sense of their performance with it (granted with a few adjustments). But off data doesn't tell as much in the postseason since stars play more minutes which means a smaller sample and even smaller sample of relevant off minutes. Most of the off minutes are going to be garbage time with the other half being bench players. Its affected by strategy. For example, LeBron gets punished because his bench minutes usually have Wade/Bosh playing on the court, and in turn the on does get skewed since Wade/Bosh go on the bench when LeBron is on the court.
Is there a reason why you chose minutes per 48 instead of per 100 possessions?
Do you have an excel spreadsheet with this data?
I'm a huge fan of on performance (for stars) because there is less variance in it. You aren't worried about garbage time or time faced vs. backups. As long as they play at least 30 MPG, they are facing decent competition. You can get a true sense of their performance with it (granted with a few adjustments). But off data doesn't tell as much in the postseason since stars play more minutes which means a smaller sample and even smaller sample of relevant off minutes. Most of the off minutes are going to be garbage time with the other half being bench players. Its affected by strategy. For example, LeBron gets punished because his bench minutes usually have Wade/Bosh playing on the court, and in turn the on does get skewed since Wade/Bosh go on the bench when LeBron is on the court.
Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
colts18 wrote:You should have posted that in the player comparisons forums. Good threads get buried in this forum.
As a mod I'll say I'm fine with someone posting in both places in this type of situation. Reason being that PC gives max eyeballs, but after a while it will disappear there. The lack of eyeballs here give it a use for reference. Beyond that, if we're going to have a Stats board, stuff like this needs to be here.
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
ElGee, great stuff
Can you give Jordan & Pippen's numbers? I know sample size is small, but I'd still like to know.
Can you give Jordan & Pippen's numbers? I know sample size is small, but I'd still like to know.
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
Doctor MJ wrote:ElGee, great stuff
Can you give Jordan & Pippen's numbers? I know sample size is small, but I'd still like to know.
For the 97 and 98 playoffs (per 48 minutes):
MJ: 8.3 on, -7.8 off, +16.1 Net per 48
Pippen: +7.2 on, +1.3 off, +6.0 Net
Rodman: +4.8 on, +8.7 off, -3.9 Net
Regular season:
MJ: +10.6 on, +1.5 off, +9.1 Net
Pippen: +11.2, +5.1 off, +6.1 Net
Rodman: +9.1 on, +8.3 off, +0.8 Net
So MJ is right up there if you only include these 2 years but he only played 1697 minutes on and 258 minutes off.
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
colts18 wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:ElGee, great stuff
Can you give Jordan & Pippen's numbers? I know sample size is small, but I'd still like to know.
For the 97 and 98 playoffs (per 48 minutes):
MJ: 8.3 on, -7.8 off, +16.1 Net per 48
Pippen: +7.2 on, +1.3 off, +6.0 Net
Rodman: +4.8 on, +8.7 off, -3.9 Net
Regular season:
MJ: +10.6 on, +1.5 off, +9.1 Net
Pippen: +11.2, +5.1 off, +6.1 Net
Rodman: +9.1 on, +8.3 off, +0.8 Net
So MJ is right up there if you only include these 2 years but he only played 1697 minutes on and 258 minutes off.
NBA.com has discrepancies with their minutes, so I'd be interested in where you got those off numbers. I have 233 off minutes because if Jordan played 1697 minutes there were only 233 off minutes left for the Bulls to play without him. Doc, my number:
Jordan 97-98
RS +9.0 (1.7 to 10.6) -- 1528 off min
PS +17.0 (-8.7 to +8.3) -- 233 off min
RS+PS +9.0 (0.3 to 9.3) -- 1761 off min
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
ElGee wrote:NBA.com has discrepancies with their minutes, so I'd be interested in where you got those off numbers. I have 233 off minutes because if Jordan played 1697 minutes there were only 233 off minutes left for the Bulls to play without him. Doc, my number:
Jordan 97-98
RS +9.0 (1.7 to 10.6) -- 1528 off min
PS +17.0 (-8.7 to +8.3) -- 233 off min
RS+PS +9.0 (0.3 to 9.3) -- 1761 off min
Good point. I forgot about the minute discrepancy for the 97 season.
Where did you get the 233 minutes off for 97 and 98? I got 1676 minutes on for MJ. For the total bulls minutes I got 5090/5 + 4560/5 which equals 1930. 1930 minus 1676 is 254 minutes off.
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
colts18 wrote:ElGee wrote:NBA.com has discrepancies with their minutes, so I'd be interested in where you got those off numbers. I have 233 off minutes because if Jordan played 1697 minutes there were only 233 off minutes left for the Bulls to play without him. Doc, my number:
Jordan 97-98
RS +9.0 (1.7 to 10.6) -- 1528 off min
PS +17.0 (-8.7 to +8.3) -- 233 off min
RS+PS +9.0 (0.3 to 9.3) -- 1761 off min
Good point. I forgot about the minute discrepancy for the 97 season.
Where did you get the 233 minutes off for 97 and 98? I got 1676 minutes on for MJ. For the total bulls minutes I got 5090/5 + 4560/5 which equals 1930. 1930 minus 1676 is 254 minutes off.
I see. I used NBA.com minutes for the player because I believe it to be better lined up with their +/- methodology. It's possible they are just rounding differences though in which case again, I sided with what NBA.com is tracking in-house there.
Keep using the alternate figure and we can have access to both in case there are ever large differences.
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
ElGee wrote:I see. I used NBA.com minutes for the player because I believe it to be better lined up with their +/- methodology. It's possible they are just rounding differences though in which case again, I sided with what NBA.com is tracking in-house there.
Keep using the alternate figure and we can have access to both in case there are ever large differences.
I think the only difference stems from the 97 season. I think all the other years align perfectly with the minutes you see on B-R, but for some reason it doesn't for 97. I think you have to use to use the NBA.com minutes figure for their plus/minus because I'm not even 100% sure their 97 season data is completely accurate. If they are off by 100 minutes for some players, chance are their plus/minus might be off too.
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
IMO for Jordan we can to combine 4 seasons (2 in Chi and 2 in Wash)
Heej wrote:
These no calls on LeBron are crazy. A lot of stars got foul calls to protect them from the league. That's gonna be the most enduring take from his career.
falcolombardi wrote:
Come playoffs 18 lebron beats any version of jordan
These no calls on LeBron are crazy. A lot of stars got foul calls to protect them from the league. That's gonna be the most enduring take from his career.
falcolombardi wrote:
Come playoffs 18 lebron beats any version of jordan
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
ElGee wrote:
Here are the career playoff on/off numbers of the most notable players from that period:
3625 off playoff minutes for Stockton during 7 seasons?! How is that possible? I'm reading something wrong?
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
DavidStern wrote:ElGee wrote:
Here are the career playoff on/off numbers of the most notable players from that period:
3625 off playoff minutes for Stockton during 7 seasons?! How is that possible? I'm reading something wrong?
Good catch. That column is displaying wrong. It should be 1090 off minutes for Stock. Everyone else looks right -- I'm not sure how that happened. Duncan's numbers are also not up to date there...I'll edit when I get a chance.
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
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Re: Postseason On/Off (1997-2012)
Hm... most of these fall in line with what we already now. Allen Iverson over Chris Paul really surprises me, though. What's wrong with Chris Paul in this data...? It feels like he's been better than this shows.
Also, Manu Ginobilli. Continuously a +/- superstar. GOAT sixth man of all time... he's arguably got Kobe/Wade level impact but in limited minutes.
Also, Manu Ginobilli. Continuously a +/- superstar. GOAT sixth man of all time... he's arguably got Kobe/Wade level impact but in limited minutes.
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