New Shooting Percentage Stat: Eff%

[RoundMoundOfReb]

The stat is very similar to TS% in that the goal is to find the efficiency of an individual player by looking at all his shot attempts and percentages (Fgs, 3ps, Fts).

Most of you probably know the formula for calculating TS% is:

TS% = (2*Fgm + 3pm + Ftm)/(2*(Fga + 0.44*Fta)) or Points/(2*(Fga+0.44Fta))

I believe that the 0.44 Fta comes from the league average of how many Fga a Fta is worth (it's not 0.5 because of things like and-1s and 3-shot fouls). The problem with this imo is that some players are better at drawing/finishing and-1s than others so using a 0.44 league average number leads to some inaccuracies.

Also there are some other situations:

Player A gets a 2 point basket.

Player B gets a 2 point basket and an and-1 but misses the free throw.

Player A will have a 100% TS% while Player B will have a 69.4% TS%.

Despite the fact that both players scored the same amount of points on the same amount of possessions.

Player C gets a 3-point basket.

Player D gets fouled on a 3-pointer makes all 3 free throws.

Player C will have a 150% TS% while Player D will have a 113.6% TS.

Despite the fact that once again both players scored the same amount of points on the same amount of possessions.

So I made a new stat called eff% that remedies these things by incorporating and-1s and 3-shot fouls of each individual player.


The formula for it is quite similar to that ts%:


eff% = Points/(2*(Fga + 0.5(Fta - And-1 Fta - # of 3 shot fouls))

Using this formula

Player A in the example above would have a 100% eff% and Player B would also have a 100% eff%.
Player C would have a 150% eff% and Player D would also have a 150% eff%.

I did this for LeBron (2013), Durant (2013), Westbrook (2013), Shaq (2000).

LeBron (2013):

TS% = 64.05%
EFF% = 63.84%

Durant (2013):

TS% = 64.66%
EFF% = 64.10%

Westbrook (2013):

TS% = 53.21%
EFF% = 53.02%

Shaq (2000):
*Excluding January 14th game with Indiana, March 22nd game with the Warriors, April 2nd game with the Knicks as game logs weren't available for those games.

TS% = 58.04%
EFF% = 58.19%

As you can see there isn't a massive difference but imo this is a slightly more accurate way of calculating individual efficiency.

Let me know what you think!

[RoundMoundOfReb]

Also if anybody wants the and-1 stats for Shaq/LeBron/Durant/Westbrook for those years let me know.

[whitehops]

interesting stuff, there are a lot of estimates in advanced stats that I think could use some work tbh.

however, player A should have a higher % than player B, why would player B still have a % of 100 if he could have had three points and only got two?


and also I would be interested in the and-1 stats for at least LeBron/Durant/westbrook, thanks.

[TheButlerDidIt]

why would player B still have a % of 100 if he could have had three points and only got two? .

This

[RoundMoundOfReb]

Well TS% itself doesn't give a "points got vs points you could've got" result either. Otherwise they would us a 0.5 multiplier as opposed to the 0.44. Eff% is basically the same as TS% but instead of using a generic 0.44 multiplier it is more personalized to each player.

As for and-1 stats:

LeBron James

And - 1 3pt Makes: 42
And - 1 3pt Attempts: 52
And - 1 4pt Makes: 1
And - 1 4pt Attempts: 1
3 Shot Fouls: 1

Kevin Durant

And - 1 3pt Makes: 49
And - 1 3pt Attempts: 54
And - 1 4pt Makes: 2
And - 1 4pt Attempts: 2
3 Shot Fouls: 3

Russell Westbrook

And - 1 3pt Makes: 39
And - 1 3pt Attempts: 50
And - 1 4pt Makes: 1
And - 1 4pt Attempts: 1
3 Shot Fouls: 5