Does the TS formula need to be modified?

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kabstah
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#21 » by kabstah » Sun Jan 26, 2014 2:54 am

primecougar wrote:
kabstah wrote:
primecougar wrote:omg i hate the " long 2s aka the worst shot in basketball. you cant win with only 3s and layups. look at the last 10 championship teams, they all had a dominate midrange player.

You don't know what you're talking about. Dominating with 3's and layups while sucking at mid range is exactly how Miami beat OKC in 2012. Lebron, the guy you think killed the Thunder with his mid range game, was 4-23 between 10 and 23 ft. Wade and Bosh were also hot garbage, shooting a combined 19-59 from the same distance.

KD and Westbrook were way, way, way better at hitting the long 2 (especially Durant), and they lost in 5 because OKC couldn't hit the 3 ball.


Idk what the hell you watched but what I saw was that lbj was unstoppable in midrange post up area. Durant couldn't check him and okc was forced to switch harden/sefo on him.
I hate this logic. How did Miami get all those open 3 pointers?

The same wide open 3s that you got was not because okc didn't notice it. It was cuz if they didn't double lbj/wade in post, it would be an easy 2 everytime. You don't get wide open 3s if lebron or wade wasnt playing in the post.

He used those post ups to get layups for himself and 3's for the team, not long 2's or mid range jumpers. You're really moving the goalposts if you consider Lebron using his 50+ pound weight advantage to back down to the basket from 12' out a "dominate" mid range game. Charles Barkley used to back guys down from the 3 point line before the 5 second rule was enforced, would you say he had a "dominate" 3 point game?
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#22 » by primecougar » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:13 am

kabstah wrote:
primecougar wrote:
kabstah wrote:You don't know what you're talking about. Dominating with 3's and layups while sucking at mid range is exactly how Miami beat OKC in 2012. Lebron, the guy you think killed the Thunder with his mid range game, was 4-23 between 10 and 23 ft. Wade and Bosh were also hot garbage, shooting a combined 19-59 from the same distance.

KD and Westbrook were way, way, way better at hitting the long 2 (especially Durant), and they lost in 5 because OKC couldn't hit the 3 ball.


Idk what the hell you watched but what I saw was that lbj was unstoppable in midrange post up area. Durant couldn't check him and okc was forced to switch harden/sefo on him.
I hate this logic. How did Miami get all those open 3 pointers?

The same wide open 3s that you got was not because okc didn't notice it. It was cuz if they didn't double lbj/wade in post, it would be an easy 2 everytime. You don't get wide open 3s if lebron or wade wasnt playing in the post.


He used those post ups to get layups for himself and 3's for the team, not long 2's or mid range jumpers. You're really moving the goalposts if you consider Lebron using his 50+ pound weight advantage to back down to the basket from 12' out a "dominate" mid range game. Charles Barkley used to back guys down from the 3 point line before the 5 second rule was enforced, would you say he had a "dominate" 3 point game?


exactly, he made shots from their and they had to contest which opened up everything else. he still had to take some to keep the def on their toes. you cant win on just 3s and layups because the def can take those away.
btw mia also had chris bosh who is a better midrange shooter than lbj
#1 pick wrote:MJ wasn't more skilled than Lebron. Quite the opposite to be honest.
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#23 » by kabstah » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:34 am

primecougar wrote:exactly, he made shots from their and they had to contest which opened up everything else. he still had to take some to keep the def on their toes. you cant win on just 3s and layups because the def can take those away.
btw mia also had chris bosh who is a better midrange shooter than lbj

You're not getting it. Lebron was ridiculously terrible whenever he tried to shoot from mid range, 4-23 isn't keeping any defense honest. Chris Bosh was and is a better mid range shooter but even he was only ~33% that series, and his mid range game was entirely catch and shoot.

Question for you: what defense could OKC have played to take away both the 3 and the layup, and why didn't they do that?
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#24 » by primecougar » Sun Jan 26, 2014 6:49 pm

kabstah wrote:
primecougar wrote:exactly, he made shots from their and they had to contest which opened up everything else. he still had to take some to keep the def on their toes. you cant win on just 3s and layups because the def can take those away.
btw mia also had chris bosh who is a better midrange shooter than lbj

You're not getting it. Lebron was ridiculously terrible whenever he tried to shoot from mid range, 4-23 isn't keeping any defense honest. Chris Bosh was and is a better mid range shooter but even he was only ~33% that series, and his mid range game was entirely catch and shoot.

Question for you: what defense could OKC have played to take away both the 3 and the layup, and why didn't they do that?


better question. why wasnt mia winning vs the spurs until lbj/wade took and made their midrange shots in game 5/6/7 in the finals?
#1 pick wrote:MJ wasn't more skilled than Lebron. Quite the opposite to be honest.
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#25 » by Rapcity_11 » Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:06 pm

primecougar wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
primecougar wrote:omg i hate the " long 2s aka the worst shot in basketball. you cant win with only 3s and layups. look at the last 10 championship teams, they all had a dominate midrange player.


2013/2012: lebron had to make his midrange shots to beat the spurs, killed the thunder with his mid range game
2011: dirk
2009/2010: kobe
2008: pierce and kg
2007: parker
2006: wade
2005: duncan/gino
2004: rip/buliups and soo on

you need one guy making midrange shots at an elite level


Calling Duncan and Ginobili dominant mid-range players is really weird.


Ginobili is a stretch but Duncan does start his post up game from around 15-17 feet as the def doesn't always let him get deep post position. Plus the spurs had tony Parker who takes a lot of midrange shots.


Ginobili doesn't even shoot mid-range J's. He was the original Harden. So he's doesn't even qualify as a stretch.

Duncan has always had a solid mid-range J but to call him dominant is just flat out wrong.
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#26 » by Rapcity_11 » Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:13 pm

jamesnamida wrote:
Isn't it a estimate to convert fta to one true possession like the fga?
Cause I think the higher the fta from the average. The less accurate the ts is.


That's wrong. TS% is only inaccurate for players who tmke a disproportionate amount of single FT trips. The amount of FT's a player takes does not cause inaccuracies on its own.

Again, not sure you really understand the point of the 0.44. Your opening sentence is right, but then you get away from it.
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#27 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Jan 26, 2014 8:20 pm

No, if research states a number like .443 or whatever is more accurate and-1 adjustment than .44, then fine - but overall TS is what it is
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#28 » by kabstah » Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:17 am

primecougar wrote:
kabstah wrote:
primecougar wrote:exactly, he made shots from their and they had to contest which opened up everything else. he still had to take some to keep the def on their toes. you cant win on just 3s and layups because the def can take those away.
btw mia also had chris bosh who is a better midrange shooter than lbj

You're not getting it. Lebron was ridiculously terrible whenever he tried to shoot from mid range, 4-23 isn't keeping any defense honest. Chris Bosh was and is a better mid range shooter but even he was only ~33% that series, and his mid range game was entirely catch and shoot.

Question for you: what defense could OKC have played to take away both the 3 and the layup, and why didn't they do that?


better question. why wasnt mia winning vs the spurs until lbj/wade took and made their midrange shots in game 5/6/7 in the finals?

Quite frankly, your question is stupid because you're implying that Miami won game 5. They didn't. How Miami/SAS played out has nothing to do with Miami beating OKC without a competent (let alone dominant, or as you like to say, "dominate") mid range game. The fact that you're now trying to change the subject is an implicit acknowledgement that you were wrong, and so I will graciously accept your concession.

I'll humor you, however, and answer your question: why wasn't Miami winning against SAS until games 6/7?

Miami's defense was the problem, giving up 120+ ORTG averaged over their 3 losses and Danny Green set an NBA Finals record for most 3 pointers made. SAS ORTG in games 6 and 7: 107 and 97 respectively, lower than in any of their wins. It also helped that Miami was 23/51 from 3 for those 2 games (they were also hot from 3 in game 5, but their defense couldn't keep SAS out of the paint). Lebron + Wade were 6/17 (bad) from mid range in game 6 and 12/25 (fantastic) in game 7, but Miami was actually worse on offense in game 7 than in any of their other wins.
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#29 » by primecougar » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:19 am

kabstah wrote:
primecougar wrote:
kabstah wrote:You're not getting it. Lebron was ridiculously terrible whenever he tried to shoot from mid range, 4-23 isn't keeping any defense honest. Chris Bosh was and is a better mid range shooter but even he was only ~33% that series, and his mid range game was entirely catch and shoot.

Question for you: what defense could OKC have played to take away both the 3 and the layup, and why didn't they do that?


better question. why wasnt mia winning vs the spurs until lbj/wade took and made their midrange shots in game 5/6/7 in the finals?

Quite frankly, your question is stupid because you're implying that Miami won game 5. They didn't. How Miami/SAS played out has nothing to do with Miami beating OKC without a competent (let alone dominant, or as you like to say, "dominate") mid range game. The fact that you're now trying to change the subject is an implicit acknowledgement that you were wrong, and so I will graciously accept your concession.

I'll humor you, however, and answer your question: why wasn't Miami winning against SAS until games 6/7?

Miami's defense was the problem, giving up 120+ ORTG averaged over their 3 losses and Danny Green set an NBA Finals record for most 3 pointers made. SAS ORTG in games 6 and 7: 107 and 97 respectively, lower than in any of their wins. It also helped that Miami was 23/51 from 3 for those 2 games (they were also hot from 3 in game 5, but their defense couldn't keep SAS out of the paint). Lebron + Wade were 6/17 (bad) from mid range in game 6 and 12/25 (fantastic) in game 7, but Miami was actually worse on offense in game 7 than in any of their other wins.


you keep babbling about 3 point shots but the fact is you dont get those looks without a solid midrange game. jordan/kobe both have said this multiple times, you need a midrange/post up game to be elite. the fact was lebron was getting bounced in the playoffs even with mia before he went to oljuawon and work on his post game.

even the okc series, lbj was getting durant in foul trouble in the post.

i take it, you're a guy who has never touched a basketball in his life and just looks at the boxscore. if the midrange game is so useless? why do all time greats like kobe/jordan always talk about, why did lbj work so hard to develop it?

you have to take and make midrange shots to win, the fact is lbj didnt have a ring until he went there and used his post game. all i saw in the okc series was lbj dominating in the post from the 15-17 area. what you dont understand is that midrange game =/= taking long 2s only.
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#30 » by primecougar » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:21 am

Rapcity_11 wrote:
primecougar wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Calling Duncan and Ginobili dominant mid-range players is really weird.


Ginobili is a stretch but Duncan does start his post up game from around 15-17 feet as the def doesn't always let him get deep post position. Plus the spurs had tony Parker who takes a lot of midrange shots.


Ginobili doesn't even shoot mid-range J's. He was the original Harden. So he's doesn't even qualify as a stretch.

Duncan has always had a solid mid-range J but to call him dominant is just flat out wrong.


like i said gino was a stretch but duncan routinely would start his post up from the midrange area. midrange game is just not long 2s. they also had parker although not as good as he is now but he would take some shots
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Re: Does the TS formula need to be modified? 

Post#31 » by kabstah » Mon Jan 27, 2014 4:00 am

primecougar wrote:you have to take and make midrange shots to win, the fact is lbj didnt have a ring until he went there and used his post game. all i saw in the okc series was lbj dominating in the post from the 15-17 area. what you dont understand is that midrange game =/= taking long 2s only.

You're the one who took exception to people calling the long 2 the worst shot in basketball, saying you can't win with only 3's and layups. Did Lebron dominate OKC with his post game? Yes, because he got layups from his post ups. If you want to call Lebron backing down Harden/Thabo from the elbow all the way to the restricted circle a mid range game, then you're just playing semantic games. Like I said, Barkley used to back down from the 3 point line, did he have a dominant 3 point game?

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