New Thoory on Hot Hands

Post #1 » by **Ice Man** » Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:05 am

The upshot: Guys who make shots take somewhat harder shots the next time, when compared to guys who miss shots. Which makes sense of course.

So if you adjust for the difficulty of shot, there actually is a small bit of persistence ... a little bit of hotness. The shooting percentage of the hot guys isn't more than of the non-hot guys, but again they are taking tougher shots. Their percentage actually should be lower but is raised to equal by hotness.

It's not a big deal, just a percent or two.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp ... proach.pdf

giberish · Post #2 » by **giberish** » Sat Mar 1, 2014 1:13 am

This isn't really new though. Something like this came out last year. This is perhaps a refinement but along the same general lines.

Controlling for degree of difficulty, players are more likely to make shots after makes - but this effect is smaller than the degree of difficulty increase from players forcing shots when they fee themselves to be hot - so overall they're less likely to make shots.

Post #3 » by **bondom34** » Sat Mar 1, 2014 5:21 am

giberish wrote:This isn't really new though. Something like this came out last year. This is perhaps a refinement but along the same general lines.

Controlling for degree of difficulty, players are more likely to make shots after makes - but this effect is smaller than the degree of difficulty increase from players forcing shots when they fee themselves to be hot - so overall they're less likely to make shots.

This showed the opposite