howt to find win probability at certain points

RSCD3_ · Post #1 » by **RSCD3_** » Sat Dec 6, 2014 4:06 am

So ive seen a lot of things off of ESPN's twitter where they talk about what the probability was of a team that pulled off a a great comeback and I was wondering what type of formula you would use to figure out odds in any situation

andyhop · Post #2 » by **andyhop** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 2:04 pm

If you have the score of lots of games broken down by time (however finely you want ,so by minute or second or whatever) you can work out how many teams came back from down X at the Y minute point of the game and calculate the odds from that and the total of teams down X at the Y minute mark.

RSCD3_ · Post #3 » by **RSCD3_** » Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:50 pm

andyhop wrote:If you have the score of lots of games broken down by time (however finely you want ,so by minute or second or whatever) you can work out how many teams came back from down X at the Y minute point of the game and calculate the odds from that and the total of teams down X at the Y minute mark.

How could I acquire this information with next to no technology or programming background. Would it cost?

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TigerInYourTank · Post #4 » by **TigerInYourTank** » Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:14 pm

RSCD3_ wrote:
andyhop wrote:If you have the score of lots of games broken down by time (however finely you want ,so by minute or second or whatever) you can work out how many teams came back from down X at the Y minute point of the game and calculate the odds from that and the total of teams down X at the Y minute mark.

How could I acquire this information with next to no technology or programming background. Would it cost?

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As a developer, I see it as non-trivial.I see it from the standpoint of parsing data from websites automatically, putting it in a database, setting up a UI, and using R to do the processing/math. It would cost about a half a week to a week, which is roughly $2000. This would probably he a very quick-and-dirty setup (half-assed). However, some guys will do it for free out of interest. I'm sure I will do this groundwork, eventually.