From ESPN:
"Overall, Boston is expected to win about 1.7 of its final 5 games (34 percent), tied for the fourth-lowest projected win percentage in the NBA."
"Overall, Miami is expected to win about 2.9 of its final 5 games (58 percent), the 11th-best projected win percentage in the NBA and 1.2 more projected wins than the Celtics (who currently hold a 1-game lead)."
Which is realer, the majority of more probable outcomes expected by statistics that just might not wind up happening, or the possibility of an improbable outcome that defies statistical expectations and actually happens?
Stats versus reality
Moderator: Doctor MJ
Stats versus reality
- wigglestrue
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Stats versus reality
0:01.8 A. Walker makes 3-pt shot from 28 ft (assist by E. Williams) +3 109-108
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_9qvmXiEuU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_9qvmXiEuU
Re: Stats versus reality
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- RealGM
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Re: Stats versus reality
I'm sure they could come out with a better summary. Like
5-0 : XX%
4-1 : XX%
3-2 : XX%
2-3 : XX%
1-4 : XX%
0-5 : XX%
That would really give a better idea of likely outcomes. Of course - especially at the end of the season - you don't really know how strong of a team is going to be out on the floor for a given game.
5-0 : XX%
4-1 : XX%
3-2 : XX%
2-3 : XX%
1-4 : XX%
0-5 : XX%
That would really give a better idea of likely outcomes. Of course - especially at the end of the season - you don't really know how strong of a team is going to be out on the floor for a given game.
Re: Stats versus reality
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Re: Stats versus reality
people with perfect ways to calculate sport stats either a. don't exist. b. are keeping it to themselves for betting reasons.
It's a lot like investing, you can learn a lot that increase your probability of making money, but there's individuals/organizations that haven't lost money in decades with their picks due to the formula they go by.
It's a lot like investing, you can learn a lot that increase your probability of making money, but there's individuals/organizations that haven't lost money in decades with their picks due to the formula they go by.
Re: Stats versus reality
- Joao Saraiva
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Re: Stats versus reality
Well, Cleveland gave away 2 games against Boston, so there go the predictions.
“These guys have been criticized the last few years for not getting to where we’re going, but I’ve always said that the most important thing in sports is to keep trying. Let this be an example of what it means to say it’s never over.” - Jerry Sloan
Re: Stats versus reality
- Quotatious
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Re: Stats versus reality
Honestly, I think that stats do a much better job when we use them to evaluate what actually happened, not to predict what will happen in the future.
Anyway, Joao Saraiva is right - Cavs clearly didn't care about winning those two RS games against Boston.
Anyway, Joao Saraiva is right - Cavs clearly didn't care about winning those two RS games against Boston.
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