Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[hands11]

Love Oladipo, but he's not a SF, and Oladipo's refusal to work out for the Wizards pretty much tells you that he sees himself as a SG in this league.

Would love to him on the team, but unless we get some crazy offer for Beal, he'd be a waste with our pick.

You don't move Beal for him. You just add him.

In this draft, pretty much anyone top 5 isn't worth the contract that comes with that pick. VO is one of the player that could reach near that value.

You pick him, and then draft him right away or us him a year and trade him. You can do the same thing with Burke and it actually works a little better because he is a PG that can also shoot.

Its a value play.

[Kanyewest]

I don't think I've really given my take on the draft, so with two days left here goes...

Simply put I HATE EVERYTHING about it. I think it's easily going to be the worst draft since 2000 and perhaps in history. I love how Chad Ford says it's not a great draft because it doesn't have a franchise guy, or a sure-fire all-star, but it has tons of depth...I SEE NO DEPTH IN THIS DRAFT. After the big 6 (Noel, Oladipo, Porter, McLemore, Bennett and Len) you have 5 decent guys (Burke, McCullom, MCW, KCP, Zeller) followed by a bunch of international guys who have no experience against quality competition and NCAA guys who *might* become bench rotation guys, but I don't see any sure bet starters after the projected 11 in the entire draft. After the top 11 I see so many significant warts with every single player that it's easier to project how they'll fail in the NBA rather than how they'll be anything other than low rent contributors. One or two will pop, because they always do, but for anyone, even professionals, to say with certainty who will pop from 12-60 is fooling themselves.

In fact, amongst the top 11 I can't think of a draft class with worse cast. Cleveland has said repeatedly that no player they take at #1 will start for them next year. That's insane. When was the last draft where the #1 overall pick wasn't a day one starter? If you put a gun to my head and made me say who will be starting in 3 years the only certain starters I can think of are Porter, Zeller (depending on where he's drafted), Oladipo, and Noel. And I don't think any of them are multiple time all-stars. Bennett may start, but Beasley and Williams aren't starters. Burke may start, but Marcus Williams and DJ Augustine flamed out, and both were very similar prospects. MCW can't shoot. McCullum will settle in as a 3rd guard in a rotation. McLemore will settle in as the next Kansas high lotto bust and Len could be anything from a better defensive Brook Lopez to Michael Doleac.

In the end if the Wizards can come away with a league average starter in this draft I'd consider it a success. But with that said, I have no hopes of this pick being a player that will end up being anything more than "just a guy". Sad but true.

Kwame Brown.

[DCZards]

You don't move Beal for him. You just add him.

In this draft, pretty much anyone top 5 isn't worth the contract that comes with that pick. VO is one of the player that could reach near that value.

You pick him, and then draft him right away or us him a year and trade him. You can do the same thing with Burke and it actually works a little better because he is a PG that can also shoot.

Its a value play.

But what if VO or Burke don't turn out to be that hot trade commodity that you think they will be, especially since they won't get a ton of minutes as backups to Beal and Wall so it will be hard to showcase them. You might end up getting pennies on the dollar when you try to trade whichever one you draft. You don't take that risk that with the third pick in the draft. With that high a pick, you need to try to draft a player who will be a core piece for many years and an eventual starter.

[hands11]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2013/6/25 ... -big-board

Mike ended where I have been saying with his top picks, except he has more faith in Noels health then I do.

I still don't think Noel plays this year. After that, it should be interesting to see how he manages as a center with no offense when A Davis needed to more to PF his first year.

I'll admit, Noel is intriguing as a long term prospect if he can stay healthy. I just don't like the risk.

[hands11]

I don't think I've really given my take on the draft, so with two days left here goes...

Simply put I HATE EVERYTHING about it. I think it's easily going to be the worst draft since 2000 and perhaps in history. I love how Chad Ford says it's not a great draft because it doesn't have a franchise guy, or a sure-fire all-star, but it has tons of depth...I SEE NO DEPTH IN THIS DRAFT. After the big 6 (Noel, Oladipo, Porter, McLemore, Bennett and Len) you have 5 decent guys (Burke, McCullom, MCW, KCP, Zeller) followed by a bunch of international guys who have no experience against quality competition and NCAA guys who *might* become bench rotation guys, but I don't see any sure bet starters after the projected 11 in the entire draft. After the top 11 I see so many significant warts with every single player that it's easier to project how they'll fail in the NBA rather than how they'll be anything other than low rent contributors. One or two will pop, because they always do, but for anyone, even professionals, to say with certainty who will pop from 12-60 is fooling themselves.

In fact, amongst the top 11 I can't think of a draft class with worse cast. Cleveland has said repeatedly that no player they take at #1 will start for them next year. That's insane. When was the last draft where the #1 overall pick wasn't a day one starter? If you put a gun to my head and made me say who will be starting in 3 years the only certain starters I can think of are Porter, Zeller (depending on where he's drafted), Oladipo, and Noel. And I don't think any of them are multiple time all-stars. Bennett may start, but Beasley and Williams aren't starters. Burke may start, but Marcus Williams and DJ Augustine flamed out, and both were very similar prospects. MCW can't shoot. McCullum will settle in as a 3rd guard in a rotation. McLemore will settle in as the next Kansas high lotto bust and Len could be anything from a better defensive Brook Lopez to Michael Doleac.

In the end if the Wizards can come away with a league average starter in this draft I'd consider it a success. But with that said, I have no hopes of this pick being a player that will end up being anything more than "just a guy". Sad but true.

Well how often is that true ? Your talking starters.

[hands11]

You don't move Beal for him. You just add him.

In this draft, pretty much anyone top 5 isn't worth the contract that comes with that pick. VO is one of the player that could reach near that value.

You pick him, and then draft him right away or us him a year and trade him. You can do the same thing with Burke and it actually works a little better because he is a PG that can also shoot.

Its a value play.

But what if VO or Burke don't turn out to be that hot trade commodity that you think they will be, especially since they won't get a ton of minutes as backups to Beal and Wall so it will be hard to showcase them. You might end up getting pennies on the dollar when you try to trade whichever one you draft. You don't take that risk that with the third pick in the draft. With that high a pick, you need to try to draft a player who will be a core piece for many years and an eventual starter.

If you keep them, there its obviously more risk but I'm pretty sure Burke and VO will be good players. VO will always have value because of his defense, work ethic will get him better and he has proven he can hit a good quality shoot. And he is so athletic. Come on. Hard to see that busting.

Burke is just to smart at PG and he can score. I see very low bust value there as well.

And both are proven hard core winners.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Not to beat a dead horse, but for the Olynyk fans - what did you think of Nick Fazekas when he was at Nevada, and why is Olynyk going to be much better than Fazekas - who's barely gotten a cup of coffee in the NBA?

Fazekas in the NBA has a career PER of 19.6 and a career WS/48 of .148. He averages 14.3 points and 11.9 rebounds per 36 minutes. Career .561 FG. Career ORTG 115.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... kni01.html

He did shoot well in his stint with the Clippers and in the D-League, where he was one time an all star. After two seasons cut short by injury, he recently averaged 21/12 in 28 minutes over 50 games in Japan.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Nic ... ummary/343

Fazekas has not stuck in the NBA but his numbers suggest better-than-average rebounding with high FG percentage shooting--just what I and IIRC docklinkin (he mentioned Nick Fazekas first) thought he would do as a pro.
Are you sa
Try again to say he's why Olynyk will stink.

(No, I wasn't wrong about him. See Brandan Wright and Earl Clark's first few seasons. Wright luckily stayed around on a guaranteed deal until his breakthrough season. Fazekas was a round two white player--who just lacked a guaranteed deal. He's better by a good bit than Jan Vesely, even if he's not in the league. Check ALL his stats. ).

Okay... why do you think Fazekas has played a grand total of 26 NBA games - with under 300 career minutes? Is it because you are smarter than every GM in the NBA or because every team has a racist (against white 2nd rounders) GM?

I did check all his stats. I don't think his time in the NBA gives anywhere near enough of a sample size to make any claims about him. And I wouldn't have brought him up if his other stats weren't impressive. That's the point. Are you saying Fazekas is basically the same as Olynyk? That was my question - and still is.

And fwiw, I've said several times I don't think Olynyk will stink (or stynyk, btw). I said he should be a decent scoring big off the bench that I wouldn't want starting. Again, I have him as a late 1st who you and Dat way overrate. Hence my question. Dat's response was well reasoned.

If I can't make claims about Fazekas, neither can you. I didn't bring him up. I can say he has not had the NBA success I projected.

I think perception plays a role in who gets cut. Guys who get labeled as "Big White Stiff " get cut. Guys who don't have guaranteed deals get cut. Second rounders rarely get an opportunity to stick around. Most go the way of Stephane Lasme. Few are as persistent as Danny Green. He always was good. So has Fazekas been good.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAC/2008.html

Nick led the Clippers in WS/48 and PER! He also led in FG. Fazekas' rebounding was a close second to Kaman. He played more minutes than Paul Davis, despite being a rookie.

Unfortunately for him, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman, lottery-selected 1st-yr Paul Davis and Tim Thomas were ahead of him in the depth chart and had guaranteed deals.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAC/2009.html

The next season, Marcus Camby and Brian Skinner were added. DeAndre Jordan was drafted. Kaman was still there. Zach Randolph was briefly a Clipper. PAUL DAVIS stayed but Fazekas was not there.

Ruzious, Fazekas is a very good player who got caught in a numbers game. I think you or others mention him as a bust to say Olynyk will similarly not make it. I still like Fazekas.

I think Olynyk is a better player and is even a good pick at 3. He will get a guaranteed roster spot and it all depends on opportunity from there.

Check the career of Steve Novak. He initially got buried on the 2009 Clippers. Just like the 2008-2011 Wizards, they shuffled players around without any good player development.

[popper]

I don't think I've really given my take on the draft, so with two days left here goes...

Simply put I HATE EVERYTHING about it. I think it's easily going to be the worst draft since 2000 and perhaps in history. I love how Chad Ford says it's not a great draft because it doesn't have a franchise guy, or a sure-fire all-star, but it has tons of depth...I SEE NO DEPTH IN THIS DRAFT. After the big 6 (Noel, Oladipo, Porter, McLemore, Bennett and Len) you have 5 decent guys (Burke, McCullom, MCW, KCP, Zeller) followed by a bunch of international guys who have no experience against quality competition and NCAA guys who *might* become bench rotation guys, but I don't see any sure bet starters after the projected 11 in the entire draft. After the top 11 I see so many significant warts with every single player that it's easier to project how they'll fail in the NBA rather than how they'll be anything other than low rent contributors. One or two will pop, because they always do, but for anyone, even professionals, to say with certainty who will pop from 12-60 is fooling themselves.

In fact, amongst the top 11 I can't think of a draft class with worse cast. Cleveland has said repeatedly that no player they take at #1 will start for them next year. That's insane. When was the last draft where the #1 overall pick wasn't a day one starter? If you put a gun to my head and made me say who will be starting in 3 years the only certain starters I can think of are Porter, Zeller (depending on where he's drafted), Oladipo, and Noel. And I don't think any of them are multiple time all-stars. Bennett may start, but Beasley and Williams aren't starters. Burke may start, but Marcus Williams and DJ Augustine flamed out, and both were very similar prospects. MCW can't shoot. McCullum will settle in as a 3rd guard in a rotation. McLemore will settle in as the next Kansas high lotto bust and Len could be anything from a better defensive Brook Lopez to Michael Doleac.

In the end if the Wizards can come away with a league average starter in this draft I'd consider it a success. But with that said, I have no hopes of this pick being a player that will end up being anything more than "just a guy". Sad but true.

Which is why a trade down is the right play this year. Pick up a proven starter on a reasonable contract and a lower first round pick and you mitigate risk while assuring you've improved the team.

[Knighthonor]

The Wiz need a skilled big to sub for Nene. Bennett seems like that guy. Zeller look like Euro Jan 1.5. Pure bust writen all over him.

[truwizfan4evr]

The Wiz need a skilled big to sub for Nene. Bennett seems like that guy. Zeller look like Euro Jan 1.5. Pure bust writen all over him.

He has so many concerns about him that worry's me. His weight issues and has had an attitude problem lets not forget he's way undersize's and has no position at 6'7.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Don't draft the next Tayshaun Prince. If you are forced to pick at 3, take Oladipo who will be the better player than Porter.

In his prime, Prince was a 14/5/3 guy that played great defense. Give him a better outside shot (which Porter has) and put him on a team that plays faster than Larry "4 corners" Brown (which the Wizards will), I think you could have seen a 17/6/5 guy.

I'd much rather have those numbers with good defense than a guy that scores 20+ppg but gives up just as much or more, which is what I'd expect from Bennett. Maybe you don't want to spend the #3 on a suped up version of Tayshaun Prince, but I don't want to spend it on an out of shape version of Antawn Jamison.

Part of the problem with Bennett is that he is more of a 1 on 1 offensive player than a team player. Yes, he can shoot from 3 somewhat, so he can be a "stretch 4," but the problem is that he doesn't appear to be the type of player who knows how to play a team game, because he doesn't know and accept his role.

Bennett scores a lot in isolation, which is something that we have been trying to move away from (and the Spurs do this as well, just sayin'). We don't need four guys standing around watching another player try and take his defender 1 on 1. We're better off having a real team offensive scheme that emphasizes sharing the ball, spacing the floor, and making quick passes to keep the defense on their toes. Porter fits in with an offense like that perfectly. He accepts his role, he doesn't command the ball, he's an excellent passer, and he knows how to make good cuts to the hoop.

Meanwhile Bennett slows down the offense. He's very similar to Al Jefferson in this regard. Yes, he might be an efficient scorer, but he only scores when the ball is force fed to him, and he's given the opportunity to take his man 1 on 1. You don't see good teams doing things like that on offense, unless we're talking about a player like LeBron James. Bennett is not LeBron.

Excellent posts here!

And since Rico is involved......

[The Consiglieri]

Would you guys select Kawhi Leonard at #3 if Porter wasn't an option and you knew how he'd turn out?

Because Porter is Kawhi with more offensive potential and less rebounding. And Kawhi was arguably the most consistent player in the NBA finals.

Porter is leagues better than Kawhi as a college player--better TS percentage, ORTG, longball.

So it's really disengenuous to say that Porter is "just a safe pick".

The entire reason I have doubts about Porter at the next level are inextricably linked to the particular qualities Leonard had, that Porter doesn't, namely, elite level athleticism, and outstanding defense that was projectable to the next level (there's a lot of sentiment out there that Porter's good to very good defense in college will be merely league average to above average at the next level due to the athleticism related issues). I love many things about Porter, but the precise reason I, and many others have concerns about him are precisely the things he lacked that Leonard had, which were elite at the next level qualities. Sure Porter was a better college player than Leonard. So what. Leonard was drafted based on his known skill set+projectable athletic ability, wherever Porter's drafted, it will be inspite of those characteristics which are lacking in him, but were present in Leonard.

Its not remotely disingenuous.

If being a better college player defined who was successful or not at the next level, the draft would be easy as hell. It isn't, because being a better college player, or a great college player doesn't necessarily mean squat when you jump up several levels in talent to the NBA.

[The Consiglieri]

http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2013/06/25/source-bobcats-shopping-kidd-gilcrest-to-draft-otto-porter/ It also says the wizards are determind to draft Bennett.

Sheesh, I'd rather have MKG than Porter.

Heck, do the trade down scenerio of:

Wiz trade #3+Ves for Derrick Williams+MKG
Min trade #9+Derrick Williams for #3+Ves
Bobcats trade MKG for #9

So would I. I wonder what could get it done? I know we wouldn't be smart enough to do it, but man, I'd swing a deal for MKG in a second if there was a way to make it work. Problem with your scenario is that it definitely sounds as if the trade would be contingent on getting Porter, or some elite upside capable 3.

[The Consiglieri]

We've gone round and round, and I still think Noel goes first and McLemore goes second.

I hope we get one of Porter, Zeller, or Bennett, which is where I think I was at a couple months ago. Len has kind of teetered back and fourth on my wish list. I like everything I read about him. I dislike a lot of what I saw on the court.

Agreed. I think we're lucky that Orlando's picking 2nd, because they're one of the few teams that needs a 2. And they have 2 young 3's that I think they love in Harkless and Harris. Afflalo can start at the 2, but I'm guessing they'd rather not start him. I like Ola more than McLemore, but they need a shooter, so they probably go McLemore. But if Orlando trades the pick, it's scramble time, and all bets are off.

My preference would be to end up with Zeller preferably in a trade down, but I'm resigned to the fact that it's not happening.

I think Zeller's destination is totally unpredictable. I wouldn't be shocked if he replaces Len in the top five. If I had to guess, I'd say Sacramento at 7.

I think having him fall to 11 and Philly is wishful thinking. But if he did, he'd be the steal of the class. I think he's on the short list of guys who could end up being the best player in the class.

And I don't think we'll take him either. I think we're going to end up with Porter, Bennett, or Len. Not because we telegraph our picks but because those three are somewhat obvious choices for us at 3.

You really are high on him. I don't think there's a chance that he replaces Len inside the top 5. I'd agree that 7 is the most likely top 10 slot, if Sac doesn't pull the trigger (and they seem to want a guard at least as much), then he'll go somewhere in the lottery between 10-14 or thereabouts. He's not a top 5 pick. I'd be super stunned to see him go anywhere inside the top 5. As stunned as I've been in years and years w/NBA drafts.

[Knighthonor]

The Wiz need a skilled big to sub for Nene. Bennett seems like that guy. Zeller look like Euro Jan 1.5. Pure bust writen all over him.

He has so many concerns about him that worry's me. His weight issues and has had an attitude problem lets not forget he's way undersize's and has no position at 6'7.

Weight issue is not much of an issue, especially this young and talented. He recovering from injury.
Attitude problem? Where you read that? didnt people say that about Drummonds before the draft? seem like common smoke screen to label somebody a attitude problem so they drop in the draft (Drummonds, Barnes).
Undersized? He has strength and skills that translate to next gen level. If he improves, which I know he will, since he nothing but a young man still, he could have elite star level skills.

[Deeptu McPullup]

The entire reason I have doubts about Porter at the next level are inextricably linked to the particular qualities Leonard had, that Porter doesn't, namely, elite level athleticism, and outstanding defense that was projectable to the next level (there's a lot of sentiment out there that Porter's good to very good defense in college will be merely league average to above average at the next level due to the athleticism related issues).

Porter's defense in college was objectively excellent in statistical terms, not "good to very good."

Contest+
Vantage tracks 6 levels of shot defense, including block, alter, and contest (defined as when the defender is within 3 feet of shooter and his hand is up). Contest+ is the percentage of shots defended where player blocks to possession, blocks to opponent's possession, alters, or contests.

Points Allowed Per Shot & Fouls Per Shot
Number of points allowed per shot defended includes free throws resulting from fouls and thus penalizes a player with a high Fouls Per Shot number.

Shots Defended Per Chance
Number of shots defended per defensive chance measures defensive activity and therefore gives context to box score counting stats in which level of activity is key.

Overall FG Against %
FG% by opponents on all shots defended.

http://blog.cacvantage.com/2013/05/poki ... -shot.html

Georgetown was also the 9th best team defense in the country by efficiency.

These numbers definitely had a swing on my evaluation of Porter, though not necessarily to where I like him better than Dipo, which was the slant of the article.

[Knighthonor]

Still feel the Wizards need more Offense than defense. the defense was hoot as is. Need to be able to score.

[Deeptu McPullup]

I'm posting on the 100th page!!!

We're not supposed to be able to do that, but I'm doing it; I'm doing it right now!!!

[Knighthonor]

I'm posting on the 100th page!!!

We're not supposed to be able to do that, but I'm doing it; I'm doing it right now!!!

ME TOO!!!!

SO COOL RIGHT?!

NOW DRAFT BENNETT

[DaRealHibachi]

Free Posting Power!!!