How do you fix this team?

[Nivek]

JJ -- Something tells me that the list of guys who averaged those numbers for 8 games is a lot longer than the list of guys who averaged it for 70+ games. Blatche played well for the past couple weeks. That'd be cause for more excitement if it hadn't been preceded by 6 frustrating seasons.

[hands11]

That was my point Kevin, that Andray has been a high volume, low efficiency scorer for years and at this point you have to assume that he will continue to be both, whatever he's done over the last ten games.

You're making me look bad in front of my fiends, dad. VVV

Feb to April is like 34 games.

He played 63 this year.

22 games for Blatche, actually. 691 total minutes.

Fair enough. That is a third of his season. Not 10 games of 82

[hands11]

I'm not sure I would fall into the category of "Blatche haters" (I wouldn't assign the label to myself but what's self-reflection to the man who created Glen or Glenda?) but I think where you and Hands have me is that I think the leaguewide perception of Blatche is probably more in line with the hater position. Too many teams around the league are either in the process of dealing with image issues or still haunted by the ghost of talent unrealized and taking a chance on Blatche would be a very hard sell to a lot of fan bases and ownership groups.

What that would mean is that anybody trading for Blatche would have to pick up something else in the process to justify the move. I don't think Andray is a guy a team can spin as a low risk roll of the dice like Washington did with Yi this year and particularly now that the draft has thinned out the Wizards just don't have much they can afford to give up to move him, and giving up assets in general is a bad idea for the team right now.

I would like to see the team deleverage itself from his offensive contributions, however, which (with luck) picking up someone like Barnes or Williams in the draft should allow. With players like Wall and, say, Williams in the starting five Andray's ability to use possessions wouldn't be especially useful but in a bench role carrying a bunch of roleplayers it would be.

I still ultimately want to move him but really at this point, and I think I remember taking this position exactly last year, (that the cost to trade him would exceed the benefit) but I guess I'm there again, assuming no attractive offers are forthcoming, he's probably not going to be traded.

edit: Unless he is the guy Wall has been passive-aggressively upbraiding through the press in which case Ernie will get him out of town if he has to carry Andray piggyback the entire way.

I like the angle you took on this one. Good points for evaluating Drays value to other teams. Just another reason to keep him for now. I just think it is a big deal to give him a chance with this new younger team with Booker, Wall, etc. At his age, I think he could catch his stride with this new group. Add that to what you just said and it seems like a clear decision that they should keep him.

The decision if they should move him later can't be made until ... well... later.

[JonathanJoseph]

JJ -- Something tells me that the list of guys who averaged those numbers for 8 games is a lot longer than the list of guys who averaged it for 70+ games. Blatche played well for the past couple weeks. That'd be cause for more excitement if it hadn't been preceded by 6 frustrating seasons.

That's damning with faint praise. I never once implied it was the same thing as doing it for a season. I'm sure the month-long list is longer but we're still talking about going from only Hall of Famers to probable all-stars.

edit: The number of players who have averaged 23/11/2/2 (assists/blks) before they turned 25:

Shaq
Bob McAdoo
David Robinson
Tim Duncan
Hakeem

MOST of the HOF players on that list were older than Blatche when they turned in those seasons. Patience....

[JonathanJoseph]

Let's take Blatche's entire (very disappointing, mind you) season into context.

Other players who have averaged 17/8/2/1 at 24 y/o or younger:

Bob McAdoo
Shaq
Barkley
Dirk
David Robinson
Elton Brand
Shawn Marion
KG
Shawn Kemp
Marques Johnson
Jermaine O'Neal
Bill Walton
Chris Bosh
Larry Nance
Bill Cartwright
Spencer Haywood
Hakeem
Chris Webber
Shareef Abdur Raheem
Pau Gasol
Brook Lopez
Buck Williams
Alvan Adams
Joe Barry Carroll
Pervis Ellison
Vin Baker
Ralph Sampson
Clarence Witherspoon
Derrick Coleman
Christian Laettner
Lionel Simmons
Patrick Ewing

We're still talking about a pretty short list and one that includes mostly all-stars and mostly multiple time allstars.

Blatche's 10/11 post-allstar break comps are 19.8/8.5/2.4/1.7 on 49% FG. Here's the list of <24 year old's who've done 20/8/3/49% for a season.

Kareem
The Big O
Barkley
Grant Hill
Tim Duncan
KG
Blake Griffin
Larry Johnson
Chris Webber
Terry Dischinger
Bob Lanier
Shaq
Bernard King
Magic Johnson

This is still heady company. Not saying Blatche is there yet, but it seems clear to me that he can get there.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I agree with Nivek's conclusion that Blatche would be quite good with added conditioning, weightlifting, and a good mental approach. Flip Saunders and other have allowed some of Andray's inefficient or lazy ways to go unchecked. A different coach who might allocate minutes according to his defensive contribution and his rebounding effort, and not simply rely on Blatche's talent is what Andray requires as well to reach his potential.

Blatche is around the same size as LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge didn't show as much game prior to this season. The precedent for improvement well into a career is there. Blatche hasn't been as accurate and Aldridge, but he's a better rebounder and shotblocker. There's no reason why Andray cannot be the same caliber player with the improvements above.

I think the best approach would be to trade him, solely because I am not crazy about him next to McGee. However, in the future if the right Blatche shows up he's a keeper. He did improve one off season. No reason to say he won't do it again.

[hands11]

Flip ran a TON of stuff designed to get Blatche the ball in the post. But, Blatche wouldn't hold the position. By the time he "set up" further out than he should have, stepped out to catch the ball (instead of pinning his man behind him), then pivoted to face up he was at the 3pt line way too often. I'm reasonably confident that the coaches weren't encouraging him to float to the perimeter on post-up sets. Just like I'm reasonably confident they weren't telling him to stand there rooted to the floor on defensive pick & roll sets while the ball handler dribbles past him unimpeded AND the big rolls to the paint undefended. (On the other hand, the coaches let him play through those kinds of plays, which sorta suggests they at least tolerated crap plays from him.)

Is it fixable? Sure. Which sorta begs the question about why Blatche hasn't fixed it during 6 seasons. Some of it's on Blatche; some on the coaching staff for allowing him to get away with sloppy play. Unfortunately, it's the kind of thing coaches often do when players have ability. And Blatche, does have ability. Unharnessed, undisciplined, immature ability, but still ability.

I don't "hate" Blatche, but I'd trade him and let someone else try to build a winner with that "sloppy" ability. Maybe they can get him playing right, maybe not. I'm thinking not.

That said, I doubt he's getting moved anytime soon, so I'm pulling for him to learn how to actually play the game. There's nothing wrong with him that can't be fixed by conditioning, lifting weights, and a different mental approach to the game.

Not intended to be a fact.

Again. Look what Nick did after all had given up hope of him ever getting a clue. In a year of many changes and surprises, it would be hard to argue that Nick 2.0 wasnt the biggest. Nick age 24 vs Nick age 25. Dray can do the same.

[hands11]

I still highly doubt that Blatche's stock is nearly as low as most of you. If Blatche only fulfills 75% of his potential, he can still be a 25/11/3/3/2 kind of player and plenty if not most teams are likely willing to take a flyer on that given his reasonable contract.

There have only been 15 seasons where a player has averaged 25p/11r/3a/2b. Shaq, Jabbar, Robinson, Duncan, Olajuwan, Ewing, McAdoo are the only players to ever accomplish a season equivalent to 75% of Blatches potential.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/i ... ay-blatche

Checking his trend line I would be happy with

19/10/2.5/1 on that feb-apr he ended the year with. what was it? .530 ? in 35 minutes

[nate33]

1. Fire Ernie, Hire me.

2. Fire Flip. Bring in a young defensive minded coach who can relate to a young roster.

3. 5th pick - Draft G Kemba Walker

4. Trade ATL pick / C Kevin Seraphin for Anderson Varejao (use cap room to take on salary)

5. 2nd rd pick - Draft G David Lighty

6. Sign FA Shane Battier.

New lineup:

PF Andray Blatche / Trevor Booker / CBA'er
SF Shane Battier / Rashard Lewis / CBA'er
CE Javale McGee / Anderson Varejao / CBA'er
SG Jordan Crawford / Othyus Jeffers / David Lighty
PG John Wall / Kemba Walker

Battier, Varejao & Walker collectively raise the b-ball IQ ten fold. Varejao & Battier bring infectious veteran defensive intensity which hopefully rubs off on teammates. Team goes 9-10 deep with a very solid bench. Walker backups up both guard spots and is interchangeable with both Crawford & Wall.

Win 35-40 games, give the young kiddies a taste of winning basketball and hopefully change the losing culture which has permeated the franchise for the last few years.

The Seraphin for Varajeo deal pretty much eliminates our 2012 cap room. I don't really like the move, but there's some logic in it if you assume that our chances in 2012 are slim anyhow. But if we do it, I figure we should go ahead and resign Nick Young while we're at it. No sense letting decent young talent walk out the door if we're giving up on future cap space anyhow. We wouldn't have money left for Battier, but I figure Maurice Evans isn't that much worse and he's a heck of a lot cheaper. I'd rather have Evans + Young than an aging Battier.

Then use the #5 pick on a swing man, BPA, or trade for a 2012 pick.

[hands11]

So what happen to the edit post button ?

[hands11]

I agree with Nivek's conclusion that Blatche would be quite good with added conditioning, weightlifting, and a good mental approach. Flip Saunders and other have allowed some of Andray's inefficient or lazy ways to go unchecked. A different coach who might allocate minutes according to his defensive contribution and his rebounding effort, and not simply rely on Blatche's talent is what Andray requires as well to reach his potential.

Blatche is around the same size as LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge didn't show as much game prior to this season. The precedent for improvement well into a career is there. Blatche hasn't been as accurate and Aldridge, but he's a better rebounder and shotblocker. There's no reason why Andray cannot be the same caliber player with the improvements above.

I think the best approach would be to trade him, solely because I am not crazy about him next to McGee. However, in the future if the right Blatche shows up he's a keeper. He did improve one off season. No reason to say he won't do it again.

CCJ

I haven't liked the idea of Dray next to McGee either, but I did start to notice them playing better together down the stretch. Part of that was McGee doing a better job of interior passing. The other part was Dray playing inside more. The combination started to get me thinking this could actually work. Add the power of Booker at the 3 and this could work even better. All three players still have upside. Booker adding some range will help open things up for everyone. Same with Wall adding range. And if they still have Nick, he obviously helps open things up. If those are your 5, then add a big with range and a back up center, that should be a solid 7. Plus Craw. That's 8.

So even if they only get Enes and Harper, they should be a lot better next year.

But Dray hitting the weights is key. He should be able to see his best ball is still ahead of him if he only dedicates himself this summer.

Wall/Crawford
Nick/Mo/Jeffers
Booker/Lewis
Dray/Harper/Seraphin
McGee/Enes

Hamady/Owens

Justin Harper H: 6' 10" with 3 Range. 44.8% This kids game look perfect for us. Love his stroke.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Justin-Harper-6341/
http://espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=36087

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dmyfUzYkOo
Just watched this one video so far and I like everything I saw. And he is a local Richmond kid.
And he looks like a solid kid. Focused. Not to flashy. 6-10 and can shot a fade away 3. Get him.
His dad played ball and is his mentor. Solid.

Nick, Crawford, Mo, Lewis and Harper can hit 3s
Mo, Lewis and Jeffers is enough maturity to balance the team.
I love what Jeffers brings. I so want them to keep him.
Booker is all grit. Enes has size and post presence. Seraphin is bench muscle. And Jeffers is a tough dude. If Dray can become a tougher dude, all the better.

I could be more than happy if that was the club next year. Its a good next step and something you could build from while a young team grows and you get to evaluate what you have and what you need.

[hands11]

I'm fixed on this kid for now. I think he would be perfect for the Wizards. I just hope he doesn't leap up the draft to much. Perfect for our ATL pick.

He gives you the big man shooting that Yi gave only it looks much better. And he can eventually move to the 3 when Lewis is gone giving the team room for Seraphin as he develops or to add someone else at PF. But for now he compliments what the team needs which is a scoring back up PF. And he has huge upside. The KD comparison is enticing. Love how he scores and just turns to get back on D. And he seems like a solid kid. That is key. Smart. Good relationship with his father who was a player overseas. And he is efficient. All good stuff. Looks like he could contribute right away.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Justin-Harper-6341/

Harper's dramatic improvement goes far beyond standard production. The senior has developed into one of the most efficient scorers in the country, ranking in the 98th percentile in the NCAA in scoring efficiency according to Synergy Sports Technology. With over 46% of his field goal attempts being categorized as jumpers, the Richmond star has posted marks of 59% shooting from 2-point range and 47% from beyond the arc, percentages that rank him among the likes of Jon Diebler and Derrick Williams as one of the most efficient players in college basketball.

“The biggest difference with Justin is he's doing all of this at 6-10,” Mooney says. “It's incredible that he has the kind of range and touch that he does at that size, in addition to all the other things he can do. He's clearly one of the best shooters in the country, and again, it's so unique given his size.”

And that's where the tremendous intrigue of Harper's game comes into focus. While the practice of evaluating international prospects with size and skill is an annual practice among NBA scouts, rare is the American college player that presents this kind of package at the high level that the Richmond senior does. While he certainly isn't on the same level as Kevin Durant, it's easy to make the argument that no college player has so closely resembled the current NBA star since he left the University of Texas four years ago.



Ollie Harper – Justin's father – was a star for Niagara University in the mid-70's, scoring over 1,300 career points and ultimately earning an induction into the school's athletic hall of fame. The presence of a strong father figure and a mentor who has gone through the ups and downs of stardom as a college player has played a major role in the newfound confidence that Harper has exuded this season.

“It really helps,” Harper says. “Having that mentor always there, talking you through this stuff because he's been there, he's done so much for me. He had such an aggressive mindset when he was a player and he's instilled that in me and it's obviously helped me a lot on the court.”

Harper shows a solid basketball IQ, and clearly knows his role as a senior. Even though he's averaging slightly less touches than he did as a junior, he is putting up career highs in almost every category, and is doing so in an efficient manner at that.

Furthermore, he turns the ball over just 1.7 times per 40 minutes pace adjusted, a career low and indicative of his overall court awareness and passing ability. Harper is a savvy player, rarely playing outside of his strengths and seemingly knowing his limitations, looking more than capable of finding a role at the next level.



EG. Make this happen.

[hands11]

Spiders take out Morehead. Justin Harper looking smooth.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7tzjYSTfw0

[DCZards]

I agree with Nivek's conclusion that Blatche would be quite good with added conditioning, weightlifting, and a good mental approach. Flip Saunders and other have allowed some of Andray's inefficient or lazy ways to go unchecked. A different coach who might allocate minutes according to his defensive contribution and his rebounding effort, and not simply rely on Blatche's talent is what Andray requires as well to reach his potential.

Blatche is a grown man, now. Please stop blaming others (i.e. Flip) for his personal shortcomings.

I'm on board with those who suggest that with conditioning and a different mental approach AB can be a very, very good player and an asset to the Zards...not simply a big tease. I believe (as Flip has said) that Blatche's preseason injury, combined with the midseason shoulder injury, really set him back physically and mentally. If he can get in shape (lose weight) and come back quicker and more dedicated to b'ball than to hanging out, he's a keeper. So I'm for sticking with Blatche...unless an offer to good to refuse comes along.

[Ruzious]

Maybe the best thing the Wiz can do this offseason doesn't involve player acquisitions. Maybe it's getting their bigs in better shape - especially Blatche and Seraphin. Spend a lot of money on getting the best personal trainers money can buy. I heard the Pacers coach talking this morning about Roy Hibbert having the best offseason he's ever heard of. And it's part of the reason Indy has improved so much - even though Hibb's stats aren't dramatically better - other than rebounding. He's certainly much quicker on D and much better running the court. Just looking at him, it's hard to believe he's the same guy from his G-town daze.

[LyricalRico]

I agree with Nivek's conclusion that Blatche would be quite good with added conditioning, weightlifting, and a good mental approach.

I agree - Blatche would be quite good if he were a completely different person than he is. Just like I'd be Donald Trump if were older, richer, and had better hair. But I'm not going to turn into Donald Trump between now and the start of the next NBA season, nor do I expect Blatche to turn into somebody else within the same time frame.

[nate33]

Let's take Blatche's entire (very disappointing, mind you) season into context.

Other players who have averaged 17/8/2/1 at 24 y/o or younger:

Bob McAdoo
Shaq
Barkley
Dirk
David Robinson
Elton Brand
Shawn Marion
KG
Shawn Kemp
Marques Johnson
Jermaine O'Neal
Bill Walton
Chris Bosh
Larry Nance
Bill Cartwright
Spencer Haywood
Hakeem
Chris Webber
Shareef Abdur Raheem
Pau Gasol
Brook Lopez
Buck Williams
Alvan Adams
Joe Barry Carroll
Pervis Ellison
Vin Baker
Ralph Sampson
Clarence Witherspoon
Derrick Coleman
Christian Laettner
Lionel Simmons
Patrick Ewing

We're still talking about a pretty short list and one that includes mostly all-stars and mostly multiple time allstars.

Take another look. Here's the same list but only counting players with a TS% less than .500:
1 Kevin Garnett 1998-99 (22)
2 Antawn Jamison 2000-01 (24)
3 Antoine Walker 1997-98 (21)
4 Antoine Walker 1998-99 (22)
5 Andray Blatche 2010-11 (24)
6 Antawn Jamison 1999-00 (23)
7 Cliff Robinson 1983-84 (23)
8 Antoine Walker 1996-97 (20)
9 Lionel Simmons 1990-91 (22)

[nate33]

Blatche's 10/11 post-allstar break comps are 19.8/8.5/2.4/1.7 on 49% FG. Here's the list of <24 year old's who've done 20/8/3/49% for a season.

You still have the sample size problem. Blatche played in just 16 post-All Star break games. It's not reasonable to compare him to guys who have done it for 75+ games.

[nate33]

Maybe the best thing the Wiz can do this offseason doesn't involve player acquisitions. Maybe it's getting their bigs in better shape - especially Blatche and Seraphin. Spend a lot of money on getting the best personal trainers money can buy. I heard the Pacers coach talking this morning about Roy Hibbert having the best offseason he's ever heard of. And it's part of the reason Indy has improved so much - even though Hibb's stats aren't dramatically better - other than rebounding. He's certainly much quicker on D and much better running the court. Just looking at him, it's hard to believe he's the same guy from his G-town daze.

+1

It's a pretty sure bet that most of our success next year will based on the improvement from guys already on the roster, not from new rookies joining the team.

[nate33]

I agree with Nivek's conclusion that Blatche would be quite good with added conditioning, weightlifting, and a good mental approach.

I agree - Blatche would be quite good if he were a completely different person than he is.