2013-2014 Wizard's lineup

[MCoster]

PG Wall 37, Maynor 11
SG Beal 32 , Web 16
SF Web 12, Porter 24, Ariza 12
PF Nene 25, Booker 13, Ariza 10
C Okafor 28 Seraphin 15, Nene 5

Totals: Wall 37; Beal 32; Webster 28; Okafor 28; Nene 25; Porter 24; Ariza 22; Seraphin 15; Booker 13; Maynor 11.
Rice, Jan, Singleton get garbage time. Rice picks up about 15 minutes if a 2-3 gets hurt. Jan about 10 if a 4-5 gets hurt.

For better or worse this is the team going into next year. If everyones healthy and Wall plays like mini-lebron, as he did in March & April, what is the ceiling? 6th seed? New York will likely slide (age, no guards, no salary), any chance for the 5th seed?

Nah can't see outplaying Knicks yet. 6th seed is the cieling. Should be borderline playoff team

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Thinking the season could begin with starting lineup Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor.

2nd string would be looking Maynor, Webster, Porter, Booker, Seraphin.

[Rafael122]

Thinking the season could begin with starting lineup Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor.

2nd string would be looking Maynor, Webster, Porter, Booker, Seraphin.

I think this is what is going to happen. I initially focused on the idea that there's going to be 3 small forwards on this team, but they could very well move Webster to the 2-guard spot full time or move him to the 3 in specific matchups. Wittman's going to have to get creative but it wouldn't shock me if Webster is officially the back up 2.

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Webster
Ariza/Porter/Rice
Nene/Booker/Vesely/Singleton
Okafor/Seraphin

Temple would be the swing guard that could play the 1 or 2. This also lessens the stress on Witt in trying to find minutes for Martell.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Not really the right place for this, but as the defacto "next season" thread.......

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352293458892951552[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352293972615499776[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352295270245085184[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352295715730489346[/tweet]

That's a herd of Eastern teams swimmin' in slop next year.

The Bucks aren't looking to be doing much so far either, so if they along with the the Hawks and Raptors go gutter ball, it'd be almost impossible to miss the playoffs next year. The sixth seed might well be sitting there for a .500 team.

According to what I could see in a quick glance of Basketball Reference, over the last five years, the only teams with a healthy guard registering a regular season PER over 21 that missed the playoffs were the 2013 Kyrie Irving Cavaliers (he actually missed a number of games though they wouldn't have made the playoffs with him healthy either). I think I'll go over the list again and push it out to 8 years or so, but I believe that's correct (conversely, there's been a good number of highly productive one-way bigs who rebound on terrible teams).

Maybe something like.....

1. MIA
2. CHI
3. IND
4. BKN
5. NYK
6. WAS
7-8. CLE / DET / MIL / TOR

If we land a Milsap/Thaddeus level guy and maintain a modicum of health, we prolly scrap for fourth over the New York Creaky Knees and Brooklyn Broke Downs.

Edit to add:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352298604892930048[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/352299618475835393[/tweet]

Put me in favor of the Kings winning the lottery and Wiggins doing a "go west, young man".

Concerning that Phoenix is the only sure-fire western tanker.

[hands11]

Thinking the season could begin with starting lineup Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor.

2nd string would be looking Maynor, Webster, Porter, Booker, Seraphin.

I think this is what is going to happen. I initially focused on the idea that there's going to be 3 small forwards on this team, but they could very well move Webster to the 2-guard spot full time or move him to the 3 in specific matchups. Wittman's going to have to get creative but it wouldn't shock me if Webster is officially the back up 2.

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Webster
Ariza/Porter/Rice
Nene/Booker/Vesely/Singleton
Okafor/Seraphin

Temple would be the swing guard that could play the 1 or 2. This also lessens the stress on Witt in trying to find minutes for Martell.

Why do you have Trevor A starting over Webster ?
Beal will get at least 32 min, so you have Webster only playing 16 min ?
What happens 5 games in when Booker pulls up injured ?
So you have a rookie Porter, Booker and Kevin together on the 2nd line or Porter, Ves, Kevin ?

I think something like this works better.

PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12, Temple
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG, Temple
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, TBD 31 mins open, Nene 5
C Nene 22, Okafor 26

TBD Mins are Kevin, Ves, Booker, Singleton

But I guess we need to wait until we have a final roster. They might be trade of Trevor A or Okafor.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1258858&start=15

[Rafael122]

Thinking the season could begin with starting lineup Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor.

2nd string would be looking Maynor, Webster, Porter, Booker, Seraphin.

I think this is what is going to happen. I initially focused on the idea that there's going to be 3 small forwards on this team, but they could very well move Webster to the 2-guard spot full time or move him to the 3 in specific matchups. Wittman's going to have to get creative but it wouldn't shock me if Webster is officially the back up 2.

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Webster
Ariza/Porter/Rice
Nene/Booker/Vesely/Singleton
Okafor/Seraphin

Temple would be the swing guard that could play the 1 or 2. This also lessens the stress on Witt in trying to find minutes for Martell.

Why do you have Trevor A starting over Webster ?
Beal will get at least 32 min, so you have Webster only playing 16 min ?
What happens 5 games in when Booker pulls up injured ?
So you have a rookie Porter, Booker and Kevin together on the 2nd line or Porter, Ves, Kevin ?

I think something like this works better.

PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12, Temple
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG, Temple
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, TBD 31 mins open, Nene 5
C Nene 22, Okafor 26

TBD Mins are Kevin, Ves, Booker, Singleton

But I guess we need to wait until we have a final roster. They might be trade Trevor A or Okafor.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1258858&start=15

Because it's probably the only way Webster, Ariza, and Porter all get minutes

[payitforward]

Starting to look like we won't re-sign Temple -- he'd take us to 15 guys. We had a qualifying on him, but I don't think we offered it.

W/ him and Price gone from the 2d unit, we'll have to see who's going to pick up the deficit on defense.

[hands11]

I think this is what is going to happen. I initially focused on the idea that there's going to be 3 small forwards on this team, but they could very well move Webster to the 2-guard spot full time or move him to the 3 in specific matchups. Wittman's going to have to get creative but it wouldn't shock me if Webster is officially the back up 2.

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Webster
Ariza/Porter/Rice
Nene/Booker/Vesely/Singleton
Okafor/Seraphin

Temple would be the swing guard that could play the 1 or 2. This also lessens the stress on Witt in trying to find minutes for Martell.

Why do you have Trevor A starting over Webster ?
Beal will get at least 32 min, so you have Webster only playing 16 min ?
What happens 5 games in when Booker pulls up injured ?
So you have a rookie Porter, Booker and Kevin together on the 2nd line or Porter, Ves, Kevin ?

I think something like this works better.

PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12, Temple
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG, Temple
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, TBD 31 mins open, Nene 5
C Nene 22, Okafor 26

TBD Mins are Kevin, Ves, Booker, Singleton

But I guess we need to wait until we have a final roster. They might be trade Trevor A or Okafor.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1258858&start=15

Because it's probably the only way Webster, Ariza, and Porter all get minutes

Except you just replied to another way to do it.

Try assigning some minutes to your line ups and see where you end up. They just resigned Webster for 5M+ over 4 years. I doubt his role is to just play Beals back up minutes.

[hands11]

Starting to look like we won't re-sign Temple -- he'd take us to 15 guys. We had a qualifying on him, but I don't think we offered it.

W/ him and Price gone from the 2d unit, we'll have to see who's going to pick up the deficit on defense.

Wall, Maynor, Beal, Glen Jr, Temple, Webster, Trevor A, Otto
Nene, Ves, Booker, Singleton, Okafor, Kevin

That's 14. Either I'm missing a player or your're are counting wrong.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Thinking the season could begin with starting lineup Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Okafor.

2nd string would be looking Maynor, Webster, Porter, Booker, Seraphin.

I think this is what is going to happen. I initially focused on the idea that there's going to be 3 small forwards on this team, but they could very well move Webster to the 2-guard spot full time or move him to the 3 in specific matchups. Wittman's going to have to get creative but it wouldn't shock me if Webster is officially the back up 2.

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Webster
Ariza/Porter/Rice
Nene/Booker/Vesely/Singleton
Okafor/Seraphin

Temple would be the swing guard that could play the 1 or 2. This also lessens the stress on Witt in trying to find minutes for Martell.

Why do you have Trevor A starting over Webster ?
Beal will get at least 32 min, so you have Webster only playing 16 min ?
What happens 5 games in when Booker pulls up injured ?
So you have a rookie Porter, Booker and Kevin together on the 2nd line or Porter, Ves, Kevin ?

I think something like this works better.

PG Wall 36-38, Maynor 10-12, Temple
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG, Temple
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, TBD 31 mins open, Nene 5
C Nene 22, Okafor 26

TBD Mins are Kevin, Ves, Booker, Singleton

But I guess we need to wait until we have a final roster. They might be trade of Trevor A or Okafor.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1258858&start=15

hands, of course guys aren't stuck to this, most on this team can slide between 2 or more positions... Martell at SG or SF, Nene at PF or C for example, which there will certainly be a lot of.

But as things are currently constructed, I would expect Ariza to start at SF, with Webster being the primary Beal replacement as well as pt backing up SF. Just as I would expect Nene to start at PF, although also getting some pt at C.

Unless Rice comes in and just blows everyone away, which I guess is possible but I don't expect it.

[nate33]

I'd run the rotation like this, assuming everyone is healthy and it's a close game that we need to win:

Code: Select all

      |    1ST QUARTER         |      2ND QUARTER       |
TIME  |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |
PG    |JW----------------------|EM--------JW------------|
SG    |BB----------MW----------|BB----------------------|
SF    |MW----------OP----------|--------TA------MW------|
PF    |NH--------------TA------|KS------NH------TA------|
C     |EA--------------KS------|EA--------------NH------|
Tot: JW-38 BB-36 MW-32 NH-32 EO-32 TA-24 OP-20 KS-16 EM-10


In blowouts or in games when the 2nd string is playing unusually well, I'd dial back the workload of the starters so their average minutes played would probably be roughly 2 or 3 minutes less than what is shown here. There will also be injuries and foul trouble which will get the bench players more minutes, and give some opportunities for Temple, Rice, Vesely and Booker.

[doclinkin]

I'd run the rotation like this, assuming everyone is healthy and it's a close game that we need to win:

Code: Select all

      |    1ST QUARTER         |      2ND QUARTER       |
TIME  |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |
PG    |JW----------------------|EM--------JW------------|
SG    |BB----------MW----------|BB----------------------|
SF    |MW----------OP----------|--------TA------MW------|
PF    |NH--------------TA------|KS------NH------TA------|
C     |EA--------------KS------|EA--------------NH------|
Tot: JW-38 BB-36 MW-32 NH-32 EO-32 TA-24 OP-20 KS-16 EM-10


In blowouts or in games when the 2nd string is playing unusually well, I'd dial back the workload of the starters so their average minutes played would probably be roughly 2 or 3 minutes less than what is shown here. There will also be injuries and foul trouble which will get the bench players more minutes, and give some opportunities for Temple, Rice, Vesely and Booker.

EA is EO I assume.

Personally I'd like your small ball spread line-up better if Nene were the true big. His ability to open the floor allows slashers (Wall, Ariza) to find lanes while gunners on the outside keep defenses honest. Nene can hit the open foul line jumper if his big sags off him, or swing the ball to the back door cutter if they play him tight. Motion in crossing patterns and downscreens free players to hit that pop-out three, and frustrate the helloutta opponents. Plus Nene traps and recovers better to help when they try to counter with a Big line and pick you to death from outside.

If you put KSera out there, on offense that ball don't get swung, just launches from his mitt as soon as it touches him like someone cut the rope on the catapult. On defense, well he doesn't rebound so you just concede the middle. Seraphin is best as a supplement to Okafor.

BUt If you simply want a longball offense gunning from the outside with a low-post guy as a dump down threat, then it's better to stick with Okafor in the middle to corral loose caroms in the way that neither of Nene nor Seraphin do. The long line-up rebounds the midrange well darting in from the outside for a re-set, but Okafor forces opponents to keep someone near the cylinder to prevent the dump and dunk.

[doclinkin]

Envisioning it, with this personnel there are so many offensive options that work well with Nene as a true Pivot man, playing at the elbow with the action wheeling around him. He and John Wall play the two man game while the others adjust with off ball motion and screening.

(Shoot, where is Eddie F Jordan when you need him, or Pete Carill or Red Auerbach for cryn' out loud).

Makes me think it would be nice to get a sweetpassing Big in next years draft.

[Liverbird]

I've always looked at Nene as our Duncan - he and Wall definitely remind me of Duncan/Parker at times. When he's playing we'll and with energy, the entire team is appreciably better. In fact this team overall reminds me of a lesser version of the Spurs with all their component parts.

I'd argue that RW could still get some value from Vesely if he played him with Nene, Porter, Beal and Wall. All 4 are excellent passers and JV would get may simple baskets and help establish some confidence.

[fishercob]

A year ago at this time, a lot of us thought the Wizards were going to be the worst perimeter shooting team in the league.

Now, with Webster, Beal, Porter and Ariza -- we have four wings who could shoot above 38% from 3. Maynor could be there too. Wall, even if he shoots 30%, is good competent enough to make teams guard him to the point where he can do other things off the threat of shooting.

I think we're going to shoot a lot more threes this year, and far fewer long two's, and are going to see a material uptick in overall efficiency.

I think we'll be fine with Ariza at the 4 for 10mpg on average. It would be best for that to happen while Nene or Okafor is the traffic cop at C, not Seraphin. We're going to have a lot of length and activity on the perimeter to mitigate the cost of being "small" up front when we go that way.

[payitforward]

Starting to look like we won't re-sign Temple -- he'd take us to 15 guys. We had a qualifying on him, but I don't think we offered it.

W/ him and Price gone from the 2d unit, we'll have to see who's going to pick up the deficit on defense.

Wall, Maynor, Beal, Glen Jr, Temple, Webster, Trevor A, Otto
Nene, Ves, Booker, Singleton, Okafor, Kevin

That's 14. Either I'm missing a player or your're are counting wrong.

Ooops. I must have been counting Vladimir Vereemenko.

[fishercob]

The other thing I like about the Porter Ariza pairing off the bench is that on D, the presumably stronger and savvier Ariza can take the bigger guy on D. On offense Porter can spend more time around the high post -- picking and popping, and also taking advantage of his superior (and underrated) passing abilities.

[nate33]

I think we'll be fine with Ariza at the 4 for 10mpg on average. It would be best for that to happen while Nene or Okafor is the traffic cop at C, not Seraphin. We're going to have a lot of length and activity on the perimeter to mitigate the cost of being "small" up front when we go that way.

Yeah, I agree with you and Doc that having Ariza at PF isn't ideal when it's alongside Seraphin. Problem is, I couldn't figure out a way to avoid it unless I did really screwy things with the lineup (like sit Nene after just 4 minutes of action at the start of the 1st and 3rd; or starting Seraphin). I figured we were only talking about two 4-minutes stretches at the end of the 1st and 3rd so it wasn't a big deal. The small ball lineup at the end of the 2nd and 4th (when starters are likely to be in the game) has Nene at C.

[mhd]

Here is my minute distribution:

PG: Wall (34 MPG), Maynor (14 MPG)
SG: Beal (32 MPG), Webster (12 MPG-16 MPG), Temple (0-4 MPG)
SF: Webster (12 MPG), Ariza (16 MPG-20 MPG), Porter (16-20 MPG)
PF: Nene (20 MPG), Booker (12 MPG), Ariza (12 MPG)
C: Emeka (28 MPG), Nene (8 MPG), Seraphin (12 MPG)

End of the Bench: Ves & Singleton; (Rice is sent to the D-League)


Ariza & Webster still each get around 24-28 mpg, while Emeka & Nene are limited to 28 MPG.

[doclinkin]

I think we'll be fine with Ariza at the 4 for 10mpg on average. It would be best for that to happen while Nene or Okafor is the traffic cop at C, not Seraphin. We're going to have a lot of length and activity on the perimeter to mitigate the cost of being "small" up front when we go that way.

Yeah, I agree with you and Doc that having Ariza at PF isn't ideal when it's alongside Seraphin. Problem is, I couldn't figure out a way to avoid it unless I did really screwy things with the lineup (like sit Nene after just 4 minutes of action at the start of the 1st and 3rd; or starting Seraphin). I figured we were only talking about two 4-minutes stretches at the end of the 1st and 3rd so it wasn't a big deal. The small ball lineup at the end of the 2nd and 4th (when starters are likely to be in the game) has Nene at C.

Plus once he's comfortable you can use Porter at that high post passer position. You do have ok rebounders at every other position on the floor. It just points up what we need in a replacement/improvement from KSera: rebounding, finishing, passing... and makes it clear we simply need a PF who can really back-up or understudy or displace Nene.