Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[Wizardspride]

Rico, it sounds like you're a proponent of trading Gil primarily due to "a fear of the unknown".

Am I that far off base?

[Hoopalotta]

Ruz & Kanye,

The salary layout:

If we did move Gil for Vince this season, we'd probably be on the books for around $30.5-$32.5 million for the 2012 season. That's with Carter for $4 million, which does count - along with Hinriki, Wall, Blatche, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, the 2011 pick and the requisite number of minimum cap holds. That is renouncing Young, Thronton and Yi, though. The exact figure would depend on our draft pick and that also affects the later years too.

If you plug in Blatche and McGee at a combined $20 million in 2013 and add another draft pick, we're probably in the range of about $37-$39 million for that season (the roster is the same except we lose Hinklerick). I think it's safe to plug that draft pick as being more like $2 million-ish at this point.

The year after that, 2014, we might be somewhere around $43-$46 million (that's counting Blatche and McGee at flat salaries that don't increase, so still at $20 million). That's Wall, Dray, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, 2011 1st, 2012 1st, 2013 1st and 4 minimum cap holds.

I think it's pretty safe to say you'd have max slots through the 2013 season, though obviously that changes if you bite into it and we don't know the exact cap figures. The Dray and McGee numbers are a variable too, but $20 million a year under the new CBA isn't a terrible guess.

Edit to add --> OK, I see the question is also how much space do we have if we keep Gil. If we plug in $2 million for the 1st rounder and renounce the restricted guys (Young, Yi and Thornton), we're just over $45 million committed (with the minimum cap holds accounted for). Hard to predict what that means with the new CBA coming as wild alterations could happen, including potentially existing contracts being forcibly decreased.

[AceDegenerate]

^ Well written, Shanghai. I agree that the Wiz do have "a shot" at being competitive next season, but I believe that it's far more likely that they are not. I'm simply playing the odds here. But even if they don't make the playoffs, I think this general point still applies:

"Build up his trade value and trade him for an expiring", really? How is that going to work if Gil is putting up 25/5/5 and the team is headed for the playoffs? Do you think thats going to be so easy for the fan base to digest if they re-accept Gilbert, watch him help lead us to the playoffs, and than dump him for the sake of the rebuilding proccess?

What if Gil is putting up 25/5/5 and the team only wins 30 games? What then? People will be clamoring that "see, he's back and can be productive with Wall" and the call will be for adding other pieces so the Wiz can be a playoff team. That's the outcome that scares me the most, because then we could begin using assets and cap space with a goal of simply getting to mediocre. That would pretty much mean that the pain of the last two seasons was all for nothing. And then if Ted/Ernie don't do it and stick with the longterm view, they'll be accused of not wanting to win and wasting Gil's prime.

I just think the majority of the possible Gil scenarios will end up being a net negative:

- the team and Gil are both bad
- the team is decent but Gil is bad
- the team is bad but Gil is good

The only way that keeping Gil results in a positive IMO is if both he and the team are good next year, which I think is asking for too much. Of course, you can still argue that letting the season play out could create a better trade scenario for the team. But again, if Gil really is putting up numbers, the outcry will still be to keep him. And then you'll even have the crowd that will feel that Ted betrayed him by welcoming him only so he could build up his value to trade later.

I guess my point is that the only way this doesn't end badly is to either trade him now, or for Gil to lead this team to the playoffs in his first season. Again, I'm just playing the odds. Could the Wizards make the playoffs, attract some free agents next season and make serious strides sooner rather than later? Sure, anything's possible. But I think it's far more likely (as in 99% more likely) that this ends poorly and I'd rather just cut my losses now.

Great, and I think it's 99% likely the Wizards make the playoffs next year with Gilbert.

See how the subjective percentage game works?

[Ruzious]

I'm on board with ya, Hoopa. The numbers I quotated were with Arenas on the rooster.

[JonathanJoseph]

Nate33,

I don't disagree with most of what you say, but your entire take is based on the conclusion that "a $20M per year Arenas is not a good fit for this team". While that may be possible, I think it is unlikely and probably not the case. I think it is more likely that Wall/Arenas are the PERFECT complements.

Are you saying that if Arenas was an unrestricted free agent this summer, you would actively pursue him and sign him a 4-year, $20M contract?

Ah. Good question and I agree that context is everything.

The short answer (and I'm assuming you meant $20M/year) is probably not. Not in a vaccum. But I do think that the market value for a non-gungate Gil would have been in the $15M/year range or more.

But I still think the context matters here at a deeper level. When I say that Arenas might be the PERFECT complement, I am speaking strictly "on the court". One of the NBA's best finishers AND 3pt shooters playing next to an uber-quick, pass first PG who makes players around him better? I think this has a good chance of becoming the NBA's best backcourt, and maybe very soon.

If that's the case, then I look at my elite starting backcourt as under contract for $22M-$26M COMBINED. This is far less salary cap space than went to Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen last year. Heck, that's less money than the Chris Paul/David West combo made last season.

So my bottom line is, while Gil is and will remain overpaid (either a little or a lot), if it works out, it will be well worth the few extra bucks in cap space. If that becomes an elite backcourt, and Blatche and McGee are going to be what I think they are, Teddy will have NO PROBLEM going over the luxury tax line to resign them (Notice how Grunfeld has stockpiled $9M in cash in recent trades?) and the Wiz championship core will be here ALREADY. Add in a Shane Battier-type at the MLE and it's all good.

So yes, add all the context in and I have no problem paying Arenas the money until I find out he's not the ideal fit to play next to Wall.

[JonathanJoseph]

Ruz & Kanye,

The salary layout:

If we did move Gil for Vince this season, we'd probably be on the books for around $30.5-$32.5 million for the 2012 season. That's with Carter for $4 million, which does count - along with Hinriki, Wall, Blatche, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, the 2011 pick and the requisite number of minimum cap holds. That is renouncing Young, Thronton and Yi, though. The exact figure would depend on our draft pick and that also affects the later years too.

If you plug in Blatche and McGee at a combined $20 million in 2013 and add another draft pick, we're probably in the range of about $37-$39 million for that season (the roster is the same except we lose Hinklerick). I think it's safe to plug that draft pick as being more like $2 million-ish at this point.

The year after that, 2014, we might be somewhere around $43-$46 million (that's counting Blatche and McGee at flat salaries that don't increase, so still at $20 million). That's Wall, Dray, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, 2011 1st, 2012 1st, 2013 1st and 4 minimum cap holds.

I think it's pretty safe to say you'd have max slots through the 2013 season, though obviously that changes if you bite into it and we don't know the exact cap figures. The Dray and McGee numbers are a variable too, but $20 million a year under the new CBA isn't a terrible guess.

Edit to add --> OK, I see the question is also how much space do we have if we keep Gil. If we plug in $2 million for the 1st rounder and renounce the restricted guys (Young, Yi and Thornton), we're just over $45 million committed (with the minimum cap holds accounted for). Hard to predict what that means with the new CBA coming as wild alterations could happen, including potentially existing contracts being forcibly decreased.

Right. All this is to say that by dumping Arenas we would likely have the chance to overpay someone like Joe Johnson or bring in a couple of 2nd tier guys, neither combination of which produces like the hobbled-Arenas.

[Hoopalotta]

Ruz & Kanye,

The salary layout:

If we did move Gil for Vince this season, we'd probably be on the books for around $30.5-$32.5 million for the 2012 season. That's with Carter for $4 million, which does count - along with Hinriki, Wall, Blatche, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, the 2011 pick and the requisite number of minimum cap holds. That is renouncing Young, Thronton and Yi, though. The exact figure would depend on our draft pick and that also affects the later years too.

If you plug in Blatche and McGee at a combined $20 million in 2013 and add another draft pick, we're probably in the range of about $37-$39 million for that season (the roster is the same except we lose Hinklerick). I think it's safe to plug that draft pick as being more like $2 million-ish at this point.

The year after that, 2014, we might be somewhere around $43-$46 million (that's counting Blatche and McGee at flat salaries that don't increase, so still at $20 million). That's Wall, Dray, McGee, Seraphin, Booker, 2011 1st, 2012 1st, 2013 1st and 4 minimum cap holds.

I think it's pretty safe to say you'd have max slots through the 2013 season, though obviously that changes if you bite into it and we don't know the exact cap figures. The Dray and McGee numbers are a variable too, but $20 million a year under the new CBA isn't a terrible guess.

Edit to add --> OK, I see the question is also how much space do we have if we keep Gil. If we plug in $2 million for the 1st rounder and renounce the restricted guys (Young, Yi and Thornton), we're just over $45 million committed (with the minimum cap holds accounted for). Hard to predict what that means with the new CBA coming as wild alterations could happen, including potentially existing contracts being forcibly decreased.

Right. All this is to say that by dumping Arenas we would likely have the chance to overpay someone like Joe Johnson or bring in a couple of 2nd tier guys, neither combination of which produces like the hobbled-Arenas.

That's kind of like the Spanish Clergy's reaction to telescopes in the early 17th century.

[WizStorm]

Very good. Now, we know where the 35 mil came from and why it has no basis in reality.

And if you actually read what I wrote, you would see that is exactly what I said.

If this quote is what you're talking about

Sure my analogy is false, just like yours was.

you did it in an obviously mis-leading way.

Nope, what I wrote was:

My question then would be if Vince Carter was a FA, would you pursue him for a 2 year, 35 million deal (with a $4 million buyout clause on the 2nd year) and also possibly give up a 1st round draft pick in order to sign him?

In what way is what I wrote incorrect or false concerning his salary or the proposed deal?

[AceDegenerate]

I think I'm Big Meech.

[Ruzious]

Nope, what I wrote was:

My question then would be if Vince Carter was a FA, would you pursue him for a 2 year, 35 million deal (with a $4 million buyout clause on the 2nd year) and also possibly give up a 1st round draft pick in order to sign him?

In what way is what I wrote incorrect or false concerning his salary or the proposed deal?

My apologies - I missed the part in parenthesis and don't understand why you said "to possibly give up a 1st round draft pick...".

[WizStorm]

Nope, what I wrote was:

My question then would be if Vince Carter was a FA, would you pursue him for a 2 year, 35 million deal (with a $4 million buyout clause on the 2nd year) and also possibly give up a 1st round draft pick in order to sign him?

In what way is what I wrote incorrect or false concerning his salary or the proposed deal?

My apologies - I missed the part in parenthesis and don't understand why you said "to possibly give up a 1st round draft pick...".

NP... the 1st round draft pick is because of the latest batch of rumors suggesting the Wizards would also give up a 1st round pick in a Gil/Carter swap. But again, the only point of the hypothetical was to provide a counter-point to the would you resign Gil to 4/80 hypothetical as opposed to not signing him at all (which is not possible unless you pair it with my false hypothetical).

[Ruzious]

Gotcha, Stormy. I'm no longer confused.

[nate33]

Our cap situation:

Code: Select all

Player           10/11  11/12  12/13  13/14
Arenas,Gilbert   17.73  19.27  20.81  22.35
Hinrich,Kirk      9.00   8.00    -      - 
Wall,John         5.14   5.53   5.92   7.46
Jianlian,Yi       4.05    -      -      - 
Blatche,Andray    3.26   3.52   7.04*   - 
Thornton,Al       2.81    -      -      - 
Young,Nick        2.69    -      -      - 
McGee,JaVale      1.60   2.46   7.39*   - 
Seraphin,Kevin    1.56   1.68   1.80   2.76
Booker,Trevor     1.20   1.29   1.39   2.35
Armstrong, Hilt   0.92    -      -      - 
N'Diaye, Hamady   0.47   0.79   0.90    - 
Free Agent         -      -      -      - 
Rookie Cap Hold  -1.32    -      -      - 
TPE               6.00    -      -      - 
2011 pick (#12)    -     2.08   2.24   2.40
2012 pick (#18)    -      -     1.53   1.65
2013 pick (#22)    -      -      -     1.29

Total Salary     55.13  44.63  49.01  40.25
Salary Cap       58.04  59.78  61.57  63.42
Luxury Tax       70.81  72.93  75.12  77.37
Money Available   2.91  15.15  12.57  23.17

The asterisks next to Blatche and McGee's 2012 salary is a cap hold. Our cap will be charged the figure shown until Blatche and/or McGee are actually signed, at which point their actual salary will count. If we waive our Bird Rights, their cap hold disappears but we would no longer be able to exceed the cap to resign them.

With Arenas on the roster, we should stay under the cap, but we will not have max cap room once the rest of the roster is filled up with minimum salary vets. The only real shot at max cap space with Arenas on the roster is next summer, but we'd have to dump Hinrich by the Trade Deadline this season.

[LyricalRico]

Rico, it sounds like you're a proponent of trading Gil primarily due to "a fear of the unknown".

Am I that far off base?

Well, it's not so much fear of the unknown as much as it is feeling that the upside doesn't justify the risk. I just don't see much legitimate upside with Arenas on the team. Some may say that I'm underrating their chances, but there were times in the past few years when this team had more proven talent than it does now and it was only mediocre (40-45 wins). Why would we expect them to be as good or better with less?

IMO the absolute best case scenario with Arenas on the team is somewhere in the low 40's in wins, barely getting the 8th seed, and getting swept in the first round by Miami. First, I just don't think that scenario is likely (for the reasons mentioned above). And second, even if it happened, I don't think it does much to help the team in the long run. But the worst case scenario of Gil doing something (either by his on-court play or locker room activities) to stunt the growth of the young players could have consequences that are much further reaching IMO.

So if my choices are low probability of short term mediocrity while risking the future, or high probability of short term losing but no risk to longterm success - I'm going to choose the latter every time.

[AceDegenerate]

But the worst case scenario of Gil doing something (either by his on-court play or locker room activities) to stunt the growth of the young players could have consequences that are much further reaching IMO.

Sort of like how Gilbert stunted Andray Blatche's growth Post-Trade Deadline last season by texting him before and after every practice and game right?

It's these exact claims that I am referencing when I mentioned the unjust criticism Gilbert has been getting from Wizards fans.

[nate33]

I think another one of my concerns is with the idea of devoting so many resources to the backcourt and so few resources to the frontcourt. It feels instinctively wrong to me. I've never seen a contending team constructed with it's two best players being guards. This also relates to a point Doc often makes about guards getting too good too quickly and vaulting the team up to 45-win purgatory before there's an opportunity to draft franchise-caliber big men.

Basically, by keeping Arenas, we are committing ourselves to a frontcourt rotation of Blatche, McGee and Seraphin and hoping that one of them pans out to be a franchise big. With Arenas, there will be very little chance of ever obtaining a high enough pick to get a good big, and teams almost never trade good bigs. (If a team did trade a good big, we would need the cap space, expiring contracts and/or high picks/prospects to put together a good package. And again, it's difficult to put that package together with Arenas on the roster.)

Now, I'm not saying it's impossible to win with a seasoned Blatche and McGee. I'm just saying we are committing to that as the plan, for better or for worse.

[nate33]

But the worst case scenario of Gil doing something (either by his on-court play or locker room activities) to stunt the growth of the young players could have consequences that are much further reaching IMO.

Sort of like how Gilbert stunted Andray Blatche's growth Post-Trade Deadline last season by texting him before and after every practice and game right?

It's these exact claims that I am referencing when I mentioned the unjust criticism Gilbert has been getting from Wizards fans.

FWIW, I have no worries whatsoever about Arenas in the locker room. The worst thing I have to say about Arenas is that he's too immature to be a leader. As a teammate, he's fine. He isn't going to stunt the growth of the youngsters one bit. I'm not so sure that he'll be a great veteran mentor who will help them develop, but he won't be an impediment either.

[LyricalRico]

But the worst case scenario of Gil doing something (either by his on-court play or locker room activities) to stunt the growth of the young players could have consequences that are much further reaching IMO.

Sort of like how Gilbert stunted Andray Blatche's growth Post-Trade Deadline last season by texting him before and after every practice and game right?

It's these exact claims that I am referencing when I mentioned the unjust criticism Gilbert has been getting from Wizards fans.

The same Blatche that still had a dust-up with Saunders and should have been benched for it? Geez, it's not like the guy was Karl Malone last season. He put up some numbers but still showed his immaturity. I don't consider us to be out of the woods with Blatche just yet, despite the overrating that some have become accustomed to.

[Kanyewest]

Remember Arenas vs. the Combustible Couple

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizard ... e-cou.html

[AceDegenerate]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie0YSzHHmL4&feature=related[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3i-4rDADsI&feature=related[/youtube]