Kevin Seraphin

[Ruzious]

Agreed, tontoz. I am not confident that he will improve significantly in those areas at least in the short term - based on his Olympics play - but hope he proves me wrong yet again.

[payitforward]

He has two major holes in his game, rebounding and attacking the basket/drawing fouls. Those are the two areas i will be watching most. I am fairly confident about his game in other areas.

Since you don't really want him as a jump shooter, those two holes suffice to doom his efficiency (i.e. his future) -- "his game in other areas" won't matter much if he doesn't turn into at least an average rebounder and some kind of offensive force around the basket.

I loved his pick in 2010; I'd been hoping we'd get him. I still have hopes for him, but unlike just about everyone else I didn't see that much development near the end last year; I saw more minutes and better numbers but not much more efficient numbers.

Now, Kevin (i.e. "Nivek" not Mr. Seraphin himself) may have built a model, and if so I'd love to hear from you, Kev. It's possible I was wrong about KS's developing efficiency.

[Nivek]

He has two major holes in his game, rebounding and attacking the basket/drawing fouls. Those are the two areas i will be watching most. I am fairly confident about his game in other areas.

Since you don't really want him as a jump shooter, those two holes suffice to doom his efficiency (i.e. his future) -- "his game in other areas" won't matter much if he doesn't turn into at least an average rebounder and some kind of offensive force around the basket.

I loved his pick in 2010; I'd been hoping we'd get him. I still have hopes for him, but unlike just about everyone else I didn't see that much development near the end last year; I saw more minutes and better numbers but not much more efficient numbers.

Now, Kevin (i.e. "Nivek" not Mr. Seraphin himself) may have built a model, and if so I'd love to hear from you, Kev. It's possible I was wrong about KS's developing efficiency.

Seraphin made a BIG improvement in his second season. As a rookie, I had him rated WAY below replacement level. Last season, he netted out right about average. So, big strides.

His efficiency improved significantly, too from his rookie season. I don't have a "model" (although my wife is quite lovely), but Seraphin's efficiency trendline bounced around last season. The overall trend last season was that his efficiency improved a bit as the season went on, but that trend is very weak. His ortg for the season was 105 points produced per 100 possessions (about average); his ortg for the final 15 games (when he became a "full-time" starter was 107.

The real question about how much he continues to improve is really a question of how hard he worked this offseason, and what he worked on. I doubt his rebounding or block numbers will change significantly. I think whatever change in value he ends up having will be predicated on whether he can improve his offensive efficiency and overall defense. If he made another 10-point jump in ortg, he'd be among the more efficient bigs in the game. We'll see.

I'm hoping to get time to project numbers for the upcoming season, but no guarantees.

[Ruzious]

Considering he used to average approximately 73.7 fouls per every 5 minutes and didn't show any jump shooting ability before, I think the improvement was somewhat dramatic.

[payitforward]

...I loved his pick in 2010; I'd been hoping we'd get him. I still have hopes for him, but unlike just about everyone else I didn't see that much development near the end last year; I saw more minutes and better numbers but not much more efficient numbers.

Now, Kevin (i.e. "Nivek" not Mr. Seraphin himself) may have built a model, and if so I'd love to hear from you, Kev. It's possible I was wrong about KS's developing efficiency.

Seraphin made a BIG improvement in his second season. As a rookie, I had him rated WAY below replacement level. Last season, he netted out right about average. So, big strides.

His efficiency improved significantly, too from his rookie season. I don't have a "model" (although my wife is quite lovely), but Seraphin's efficiency trendline bounced around last season. The overall trend last season was that his efficiency improved a bit as the season went on, but that trend is very weak. His ortg for the season was 105 points produced per 100 possessions (about average); his ortg for the final 15 games (when he became a "full-time" starter was 107.

The real question about how much he continues to improve is really a question of how hard he worked this offseason, and what he worked on. I doubt his rebounding or block numbers will change significantly. I think whatever change in value he ends up having will be predicated on whether he can improve his offensive efficiency and overall defense. If he made another 10-point jump in ortg, he'd be among the more efficient bigs in the game. We'll see.

I'm hoping to get time to project numbers for the upcoming season, but no guarantees.

Oh, there's no question that his productivity jumped in his 2d year! My question was about that "efficiency trendline" and your answer that it "bounced around" answers my question -- though there was a slight increase in offensive efficiency the last 15 games.

KS's improvement last season over his rookie year is almost 100% a product of his improved shooting. As a rookie, he took 9.3 shots every 40 minutes and shot 45%. Last year, he took 13 shots and shot over 53%.

Is 53% great for a starting Center? No. But it's his best stat by far. Actually, it's his only average or better stat.

[hands11]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... ory_1.html

Wittman believes Seraphin is close to coming back from a strained right calf.

Wall isn’t expected to return from a stress injury in his left knee until early December and there is no timetable for Nene’s return from plantar fasciitis. Their absences force the Wizards to be more creative in generating offense.

I liked Nene a lot but his playing in the Olympics and reinjuring his foot made it so he is not ready for the season which is really pissing me off. Booker got in the full 6 months of rest and he had the same injury which is now better. 6 months straight. Nene is going on only 2 months straight rest.

[nuposse04]

I would try to bring Seraphin back after the next two against Boston...he isn't really geared to guard KG. Although I would love to see him just obliterate that prick in the post.

[Ed Wood]

Kevin's defense is an interesting topic to me. By the somewhat modest standards of Wizards' froncourts of recent memory he's really solid bordering on excellent already. I wonder whether he is, by a more substantial objective measure than simple counting stats, as effective a help defender as his numbers suggest. Based solely on his blocked shot rate he's more than respectable, but possibly simply because he doesn't have overwhelming size but also based on my own sense of his visual impact, he's not quite as disruptive as all that. Taking his strength as a post defender into account and his willingness to move when defending away from the basket and I begin to understand his team best 6.3 points per 100 possessions team rate. That's all just preamble to the question: is he in fact that good defensively? Best on the team good?

Just one game into the season and I'm missing Kevin and Nene something fierce, the team defense would just be so much more viable with even one of the two.

[tontoz]

Kevin's defense is an interesting topic to me. By the somewhat modest standards of Wizards' froncourts of recent memory he's really solid bordering on excellent already. I wonder whether he is, by a more substantial objective measure than simple counting stats, as effective a help defender as his numbers suggest. Based solely on his blocked shot rate he's more than respectable, but possibly simply because he doesn't have overwhelming size but also based on my own sense of his visual impact, he's not quite as disruptive as all that. Taking his strength as a post defender into account and his willingness to move when defending away from the basket and I begin to understand his team best 6.3 points per 100 possessions team rate. That's all just preamble to the question: is he in fact that good defensively? Best on the team good?

Just one game into the season and I'm missing Kevin and Nene something fierce, the team defense would just be so much more viable with even one of the two.

When switched on pgs in pnr situations i have seen him chase the pg under the rim and then all the way back out to the 3 pt line.

My favorite play he made all season was when he was 1 on 1 against Howard in the post with no help. Howard was dribbling towards the middle, then spun quickly and went up for a dunk. Against almost anyone else that is a dunk or a foul. Kevin was quick enough to beat him to the spot, take the hit, then block the shot sending Howard flailing out of bounds crying to the ref. It was beautiful lol.

So yes i think he is that good.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kevin and Booker -- that was some of the best drafting EG has done. Beasts, both of them. They are not the most highly skilled but both guys kick butt and take names.

[nuposse04]

Kevin and Booker -- that was some of the best drafting EG has done. Beasts, both of them. They are not the most highly skilled but both guys kick butt and take names.

For where Seraphin was drafted and how little he knew, I think he's done quite a bit to change that. He still needs a few more post moves IMO (just send him to Hakeem every summer) but he is the one player on this team that is definitely trending in the right direction. With the only real low post centers in the East being Hibbert and Lopez, he has a chance of becoming a real factor for us in the future. I do worry about his rebounding still, after seeing what Varejo did to us, I'm not sure Seraphin could have done much better. Maybe knock him outta the game but that's about it.

[hands11]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wizards-vs-cavaliers-depleted-squad-falls-94-84-in-season-opener/2012/10/30/762b3d64-22f2-11e2-8448-81b1ce7d6978_story_1.html

Wittman believes Seraphin is close to coming back from a strained right calf.

Wall isn’t expected to return from a stress injury in his left knee until early December and there is no timetable for Nene’s return from plantar fasciitis. Their absences force the Wizards to be more creative in generating offense.

I liked Nene a lot but his playing in the Olympics and reinjuring his foot made it so he is not ready for the season which is really pissing me off. Booker got in the full 6 months of rest and he had the same injury which is now better. 6 months straight. Nene is going on only 2 months straight rest.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... me-opener/

Kevin Seraphin hoping to return for home opener

Posted by Michael Lee on November 1, 2012 at 3:55 pm

“They need me,” Seraphin said sheepishly, and with a laugh after practice Thursday.

The 6-foot-10 third-year big man completed his first full practice since straining his right calf during a preseason win in Cleveland on Oct. 13.

Seraphin revealed that he was originally slated to miss four to five weeks because of the injury, but he is prepared for a quicker return after training and rehabilitating for about “five to six hours” each day over the past few weeks. After practice, Serapin planned on having some fluid removed from his calf, which should help him get back on the floor quicker.

“I really feel good,” Seraphin said. “I might play Saturday. I can play, I can run. I can do everything. I’m so glad.”

[nuposse04]

4-5 weeks? uhhh...unless he REALLY feels good...he should probably sit out another week knowing our luck. Earl Mother f'in Barron will hold **** down.

[payitforward]

I liked Nene a lot but his playing in the Olympics and reinjuring his foot made it so he is not ready for the season which is really pissing me off. Booker got in the full 6 months of rest and he had the same injury which is now better. 6 months straight. Nene is going on only 2 months straight rest.

Not sure it's right to say he "reinjured" his foot, at least not if I understand PF. I believe once you have it, it doesn't really go away. Sometimes it's dormant, sometimes it flares up, but it doesn't "heal."

I did some research online and the above is my conclusion -- happy to be proved wrong. E.g. will Booker show it again? Well, the fact that he rested 6 months and it receded doesn't mean that when he plays hundreds of NBA minutes it won't be just as bad as it was.

To me the real question is whether Nene already had Plantar Fasciitis when we traded for him. And, if he did, was it something we knew about and made the trade anyway? Or, if we didn't know about it, would we have been able to know about it (in which case we *should* have known about it)? Was it something Denver knew about, and if so did they try to hide it?

[willbcocks]

Kevin likes to work. Hard not to like the guy.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I liked Nene a lot but his playing in the Olympics and reinjuring his foot made it so he is not ready for the season which is really pissing me off. Booker got in the full 6 months of rest and he had the same injury which is now better. 6 months straight. Nene is going on only 2 months straight rest.

Not sure it's right to say he "reinjured" his foot, at least not if I understand PF. I believe once you have it, it doesn't really go away. Sometimes it's dormant, sometimes it flares up, but it doesn't "heal."

I did some research online and the above is my conclusion -- happy to be proved wrong. E.g. will Booker show it again? Well, the fact that he rested 6 months and it receded doesn't mean that when he plays hundreds of NBA minutes it won't be just as bad as it was.

To me the real question is whether Nene already had Plantar Fasciitis when we traded for him. And, if he did, was it something we knew about and made the trade anyway? Or, if we didn't know about it, would we have been able to know about it (in which case we *should* have known about it)? Was it something Denver knew about, and if so did they try to hide it?

Nene's physical was delayed, and took place March 17 or 18.

I did a post way back in the Nene thread IIRC that Nene had a string of injuries earlier in the lockout season, prior to the Wizards acquiring him.

Among the things he complained of was foot pain. Nene had this when the Wizards acquired him. I recall going back and looking at a bunch of Denver Post articles that chronicaled Nene's 2011-2012 season injury woes. Ernie Grunfeld and Ted Leonsis did nothing more than repeat past mistakes; trading older for younger, tying up cap space, and acquiring or otherwise signing an injured player long-term.

What gets me is the very things coming up now were the things that were predictable the day Nene was acquired. It gets old being told how often I remind people I was right, but I remember very vividly the euphoria that most had when McGee was traded. I do remember being very, very shocked at how much better Nene is when healthy than Javale. The Wizards did play like an altogether different team. But the only two reasons the Wizards got Nene in that deal were the Nuggets realized Nene won't play when he's hurting and they probably felt his injuries would be chronic concerns. They knew he would miss a bunch of games.

payitforward, I think Washington probably waived parts of the physical and the Wizard signed off on anything the doctors showed may be a concern. Nene definitely had foot pain before he became a Wizard. He might have been symptom free the day of the physical, but I bet you Denver knew what was going on.

I'm not mad at Nene. It's EG and Ted's fault.

If they were smart they'd be treating Wall the same way Denver did Nene IMO.

[penbeast0]

Just out of curiousity, in the entire history of the Bullets/Wizards, have they EVER made a major trade of older for younger players other than Pervis Ellison and a couple of MJ's salary cutting moves?

On the other hand, any longtime Bullets/Wizards can name 10 young for old trades off the top of their heads pretty easily. Maybe that's why we continue to be the Clippers of the East.

[hands11]

I liked Nene a lot but his playing in the Olympics and reinjuring his foot made it so he is not ready for the season which is really pissing me off. Booker got in the full 6 months of rest and he had the same injury which is now better. 6 months straight. Nene is going on only 2 months straight rest.

Not sure it's right to say he "reinjured" his foot, at least not if I understand PF. I believe once you have it, it doesn't really go away. Sometimes it's dormant, sometimes it flares up, but it doesn't "heal."

I did some research online and the above is my conclusion -- happy to be proved wrong. E.g. will Booker show it again? Well, the fact that he rested 6 months and it receded doesn't mean that when he plays hundreds of NBA minutes it won't be just as bad as it was.

To me the real question is whether Nene already had Plantar Fasciitis when we traded for him. And, if he did, was it something we knew about and made the trade anyway? Or, if we didn't know about it, would we have been able to know about it (in which case we *should* have known about it)? Was it something Denver knew about, and if so did they try to hide it?

Not sure I want to get into a spitting of hairs over a word like re-injured. Do you just look for things to argue with me about ?

You rest it and get treatment and that is healing. You play on it after it feels good enough that it doesn't hurt, and I would call that re-injuring. I would imagine you could even injure it worse then it was to begin with before it healed.

As for the process of truing repairing the damage vs just getting it to where it is manageable, I wonder if this would help and I wonder if this is what they are doing when they say treatment.

http://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Rolfing

I know I had plantar fasciitis from playing basketball. I remember the day it happened. One hard slap on my foot after running down court and trying to stop quickly and I felt a "ping" Mine eventually healed to the point I had zero issue with it. But I gave it plenty of rest and I'm not playing NBA basketball 6 months a year.

CCJ, as for your Nene health prediction being true where he is missing a ton of games... hold that thought. It may end up being true, but missing a few games to start the season doesn't equal what you have been predicting. Lets wait for what you predicted to actually happen before saying it is actually true.

Again. Booker had the same condition. He rested and got treatment for 6 months and it seems his foot is fine. Nene, he was playing in the Olympics until when ? First week of Aug. He aggravated it and missed a game over it. They is hitting the reset button on the resting it clock. So he has I believe 3 months rest vs 6 full months he could have had.

He should have shut it down right them but he was doing that playing for my country thing. Problem I see is this. He is getting paid 13M a year to play for the Wizards.

Priorities.

[hands11]

4-5 weeks? uhhh...unless he REALLY feels good...he should probably sit out another week knowing our luck. Earl Mother f'in Barron will hold **** down.

I know. I figured he would return after Nene. But he is young. Crossing my fingers that one he returned, he stays returned.

Webster on Kevin and the team. Man I like what I hear from this cat when he is interviewed. He is really going to help the younger players get in the right mind set. You can see the leadership qualities has seems to naturally have. Looking forward to him having a break out game. Sounds like they had a really good practice.

http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/2012/1 ... p4-2273462

[hands11]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... me-opener/

Some info from a WP poster.

Samson151
6:53 PM EDT
It's been a weird preseason. Outside of Wall, Seraphin was last year's big surprise -- suddenly this big kid who was anchored to the bench shows himself to be something of a force inside. TruthAboutIt weighs in with some numbers:

"In 21 starts—most of which came after the March trade deadline—Seraphin upped his averages to 14.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game (and blocked at least five shots in a single game on three separate occasions). He finished the season shooting 67.4 percent at the rim, 46.3 percent from 3-to-9 feet, and made an impressive 46 percent of his shots from between 16-and-23 feet."

The article notes that Kevin improved his defensive rebound rate from 13.4 to 17.1, and that "Seraphin, by the numbers, developed into one of the league’s best pick-and-roll men. A report via mySynergySports.com showed that in offensive plays as the roll man, Seraphin scored 1.13 points per play, shooting .587 from the field. Defending the two-man game, Seraphin held opposing roll men to just 0.6 points per play, the fourth-best mark in the NBA."

That caused ESPN guru John Hollinger to revise his opinion: "“The most encouraging thing about Washington’s largely forgettable season was the development shown by Seraphin. After a miserable rookie season, he showcased a much-improved midrange game to go with an effective jump hook in the post and, as a result, dramatically improved both his scoring and shooting percentages...

"Defensively, he’s a beast in the making. Seraphin ranked as Washington’s top defender according to Synergy, as the Wizards gave up 6.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court.”