Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[nate33]

With most of the big name free agents having decided on their new teams, I think we can make a pretty good guess as to how the East Conference will play out. My picks:

Tier 1
1. Orlando (still the most complete team)
2. Miami (some growing pains and depth problems but will gel in the 2nd half)

Tier 2
3. Chicago (Boozer plugs a huge hole. Have the cap room to add a SG.)
4. Milwaukee (made some nice free agent acquisitions to shore up a pretty good team)
5. Atlanta (Still pretty young. Still pretty good. No major changes.)
6. Boston (They were mediocre in the regular season last year. JO < Perkins.)

Tier 3
7. Charlotte (Not as good as the 6 teams above, but better than everyone else.)

Tier 4
8. Washington (Wall + Arenas + improving young front court)
9. Philadelphia (No EJ means more wins. Turner will be a disappointment though.)
10. New York (Kinda hard to predict until we know who else they grab.)
11. Indiana (Too many expiring contracts. Lack of cohesion.)

Tier 5
12. Detroit (Donut team. No defense or rebounding in the middle.)
13. New Jersey (Worst record in the league last year. Favors is too raw to help.)
14. Toronto (No #1 option on offense and terrible D)
15. Cleveland (There isn't one two-way player on the team.)

[Rafael122]

Pretty much agree here. I would switch Boston and Atlanta though. If Wizards do trade Arenas though, I'd put us at Tier 4. That's why it's so important, now more than ever, that we keep him. At least for a year.

[miller31time]

1. Miami Heat - It's a star's league and they have the stars
2. Orlando Magic - Will be competitive for 1st but come up short
3. Boston Celtics - Still have 1 more good year in them
4. Chicago Bulls - Boozer acquisition pushes them to 4th but still far from elite
5. Atlanta Hawks - Fairly unchanged from last year; we know what we'll get
6. Milwaukee Bucks - Jennings will be more mature, Bogut healthy, Bucks will be decent
7. Washington Wizards - We'll surprise a few people with a healthy and motivated Gilbert
8. New York Knicks - With Amare as the #1 option, they'll be a passable team
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9. Charlotte Bobcats - Over-achieved last year
10. Philadelphia 76'ers - Good future but still a few years away
11. Indiana Pacers - Granger needs some help
12. Detroit Pistons - ....at least they have 30mil tied into Gordon, Villa and Rip
13. New Jersey Nets - Good draft, still a lot of work to be done in Joisey
14. Cleveland Cavaliers - Back to being bottom-feeders
15. Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani is their best player....'nuff said

[verbal8]

I think the tiers are correct. I am not sure that the Wizards at the top of the tier. Also one thing that could mix things up a bit is if NJ grabs Tyrus Thomas from Charlotte and Ratliff doesn't return. That leaves the Bobcats with Mohammed and Chandler as their bigs. I think at that point they don't look too different from the Sixers.

[pineappleheadindc]

1. Miami Heat - It's a star's league and they have the stars
2. Orlando Magic - Will be competitive for 1st but come up short
3. Boston Celtics - Still have 1 more good year in them
4. Chicago Bulls - Boozer acquisition pushes them to 4th but still far from elite
5. Atlanta Hawks - Fairly unchanged from last year; we know what we'll get
6. Milwaukee Bucks - Jennings will be more mature, Bogut healthy, Bucks will be decent
7. Washington Wizards - We'll surprise a few people with a healthy and motivated Gilbert
8. New York Knicks - With Amare as the #1 option, they'll be a passable team
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9. Charlotte Bobcats - Over-achieved last year
10. Philadelphia 76'ers - Good future but still a few years away
11. Indiana Pacers - Granger needs some help
12. Detroit Pistons - ....at least they have 30mil tied into Gordon, Villa and Rip
13. New Jersey Nets - Good draft, still a lot of work to be done in Joisey
14. Cleveland Cavaliers - Back to being bottom-feeders
15. Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani is their best player....'nuff said



1. Orlando
2. Miami
3. Boston
4. Atlanta
5. Milwaukee
6. Chicago
7. Charlotte
8. Indiana

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9. New York
10. Washington
11. Philly
12. Detroit
13. Cleveland
14. NJ
15. Toronto

(Cleveland and Toronto may move up, depending on Free Agency).

[MJG]

You can argue that teams within those tiers may need to be bumped up or down a spot, but the tiers themselves that nate has laid out seem pretty set to me - I wouldn't move a single team out of their group.

[Severn Hoos]

Funny, when you look at it on paper (so to speak), making the playoffs does actually seem like a realistic - or at least possible - result. I think I'd go with:

1. Orlando - depth overcomes luminescent talent
2. Miami - watch out for them by the end of the year, esp. after post-deadline buyouts
3. Chicago - Young but improving. Ultimate ceiling is low-50s, pending any other moves
4. Boston - They should definitely win the division, but well behind the top teams
5. Atlanta - Still the same team. Breaks the trend of increasing win totals.
6. Milwaukee - Here by default. I'm not all that impressed with them, but they'll win their share of games. Kind of like the EG Wizards, but with Skiles' defense.
7. Charlotte - Larry Brown keeps them focused. Bet it's his last season.
8. Philly - Could surprise, simply by default. And by finally having a good coach.

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9. Indiana - Too many expiring deals. Looking to next year will be a distraction. And too many SFs.
10. Washington - Assuming Arenas is back and healthy. Arenas dump for cap space = no shot at playoffs.
11. New York - Amare is overrated, needs Nash to be great, IMO. Can't do it all himself. At least he'll get paid.
12. Detroit - Can score. Turned the Wallace-Wallace-Prince Pistons on their head by adding Ben, Charlie, etc.
13. Cleveland - still have some vets for now, plus cap space. Let's see what they do with it.
14. NJ - Very young. Start of a good future. Need wing players.
15. Toronto - Ugh.

[Hoopalotta]

I'll go with the Tier convention as well

Tier 1 -
1 - Miami - I expect them to do a better job of rounding out the roster than most
2 - Orlando - A top five guy, but surrounded by role players. Can Jameer reemerge? Do they make a move?

Tier 2 -
3 - Chicago - Nice young core and excellent balance of roles. I expect very good chemistry.
4 - Milwaukee - Bogut is incredibly underrated and Skiles is a master of scrap and cohesion. Will Maggs fit?
5 - Atlanta - Flapping along. Chemistry?
6 - Boston - More dangerous than 6th in the postseason, but old and injury prone

Tier 3 -
7 - Charlotte - Need more shot creators desperately. Point guard? Could tumble down.
8 - New York - I'm assuming they make some significant moves as they have money.

*****

Tier 4 -
9 - Detroit - I expect some improvement, but they'd be better off with a pick. Treadmillville.
10 - Philly - Decent talent, but Turner and Iggy is a bad combo. Lack shooters and pretty raw
11 - Washington - Da' Kids! Very, very raw front court. Should be good fun anyway.
12 - Indiana - Hard to peg, were mostly dreadful last season, but with lots of injuries and a late surge. Point?

The dreaded Tier 5 -
13 - Toronto - As bad as they are, I don't know if they're the worst. Lots of veteran role players.
14 - New Jersey - They should be a good bit better than last year, but still, Outlaw is only vet addition
15 - Cleveland - This bad only because I assume they will deconstruct themselves. It's Boobie's team!

[willbcocks]

I think Cleveland will surprise and fight for the playoffs. The owner seems to be in win now mode. Wiz #10-12.

[Hoopalotta]

I think Cleveland will surprise and fight for the playoffs. The owner seems to be in win now mode. Wiz #10-12.

He did say that. I also heard that the GM, Grant, was sort of in "I'm going to wear this big goofy look and not say anything" when asked to elaborate on that.

He has already been talked into a sign and trade for Le Benedict, so I just assume they'll talk him out of the title hunt, but maybe he's decided that he's sending the fleet to Troy and that's the end of it.

If they push, they might make it with a few moves. They could probably get Iggy and plug him into the Bron role. They'll have a huge TPE too.

Edit --> Hmmmm.....

PDcavsinsider The trade exception will last a year but look for the Cavs to start looking on the trade market for a significant piece, sources say.

daldridgetnt Cavs just got in the Al Jefferson sweepstakes. RT @PDcavsinsider Cavs getting trade exception of up to $16M in s/t for LeBron, plus picks.

[closg00]

This Florida Heat writer makes his case that Miami doesn't really need a dominant big-man to win-it-all.
http://www.foxsportsflorida.com/08/06/1 ... eedID=6796

[REDardWIZskin]

^^ Makes some good points but when the game slows down it should be interesting to see how the Heat React.
The other end of that is that teams may have to react to them more, they have two guys (LBJ & Wade) who avg over 20 FT attempts per game combined, That's more than enough to foul any group of opposing bigs out or at least significantly reduce their time also altering the games outcome. I still see the C's as having the best chance to beat them in the East
(it will also make for a good headline with Shaq calling Bosh Ru Paul and all)

[miller31time]

ESPN ranks the East - Wizards at 9th

[Rafael122]

The last two spots are a toss up, but I like the Wizards roster more than I do New York. They just mention Amare and that's it. I dunno, we'll see how it goes this year, but I like us as a 7th or 8th seed. The best part is we have cap space to make a mid-season move to push us to the playoffs. If need be.

[MJG]

ESPN ranks the East - Wizards at 9th

The specific order isn't the same, but if you break it out into tiers, they matched what nate had in his initial post exactly. Like I said, it really feels like there are clear divisions between the tiers of power here.

[Wizards2Lottery]

1. Miami
2. Orlando
3. Chicago
4. Boston
5. Milwaukee
6. Washington
7. Atlanta
8. Charlotte

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9. Detroit
10. New York
11. Philly
12. New Jersey
13. Indiana
14. Toronto
15. Cleveland

[Wizards2Lottery]

By the way, would Cleveland going from 1 seed to the bottom of the conference be the first time that has ever happened in the NBA or any sport?

[queridiculo]

Well, if the Heat writer says that "generally speaking" not having a Center won't keep them from winning a title or best of 7 series I guess I will just have to believe him...

My only problem with his supposition is that historically speaking, he doesn't have much of a leg to stand on.

Over the past decade, I don't see a single team that was as thin as the Heat at that position winning the title. Heck, you can even take it further and argue that over the past 20 years there hasn't been a single one that managed to overcome that weakness.

The only outlier to me are the Bulls, but even those teams had able bodies and featured some of the best defensive PFs in the game at the time.

Bosh is no Grant and he's definitely no Rodman when it comes to rebounding and defending the post.

Haslett was completely overmatched against the Celtics in the 2010 playoffs, and that was against a gimpy Garnett and a Boston frontcourt that wasn't nearly as stacked as this years version.

If the Heat trifecta remains healthy throughout the season I can definitely see them posting a gaudy 70 win record, but in the playoffs their lack of depth at just about every position is going to catch up with them once they get past the first round.

Anyway, here's the way I see the East.

1. Orlando - I see them coming out of the gate on fire and never relinquishing the conference lead.
2. Heat - Miami is going to struggle finding cohesion early, go on a run to catch up with Orlando but ultimately fail to secure the top seed with Bosh missing his typical 10-15 games a year.
3. Bulls - Deng will be a MIP candidate and their combination of Noah & Boozer is going to help the Bulls overcome their poor outside shooting by being a terror on the offensive boards.
4. Celtics - There's just too much depth here for them to finish any lower.
5. Hawks - With Johnson, Smith and Horford at the 2, 3 and 4 the Hawks are going to be hand full, but Bibby's declining production is going to keep them from finishing higher.
6. Bucks - Jennings is going to have a rocky season until he gets more consistent with his jumper. I like the additions the team has made, but I simply don't see them being close enough to the other teams in the top 5.
7-8. Those slots are an absolute wild card to me. I think this year 40 wins will probably get you into the playoffs and I think that battle will be fought between the Knicks, Pacers and Bobcats.

As much as I like the Wizards chances, their lack of center play will ultimately keep them from being able to make a run. I see them finishing with ~35 wins.

[Dat2U]

Tier 1
1. Miami - Honestly its not even fair. Will run through Boston & Orlando, at least in the regular season will challenge for the Bulls record of 72 wins. It will surprise me if they lose 10 games this season. Riles did an amazing job in adding in all the surrouding pieces in less than a month with Miller, Haslem, House, Jones & Ilguaskas...

Tier 2
2. Chicago - Most improved team in the East outside of Miami. Boozer & Noah frontcourt means "no rebounds for you!".
3. Orlando - Will slip a notch this season but still should be pretty good. They need at least a minor shake up though and acquire another major piece to have any hope of threatening the Heat.
4. Boston - Shaq won't help, Jermaine if he's healthy will. Still need to find a quality backup for Pierce.

Tier 3
5. Milwaukee - A little more versatile on the perimeter. Bogut should be back healthy. A solid middle the road playoff team
6. Atlanta - needs to address the PG situation with a declining Bibby. If their moving Horford to PF, they'll need another C as well. I expect some slight slippage this season. Don't be surprised if Joe Johnson shows that he's already lost a step.
7. Charlotte - If Livingston stays healthy he'll steal the starting PG job away from Augustin and be a nice upgrade over Felton. A team loaded with long athletic defenders. Under Larry Brown they could surprise, push towards 50 wins and finish even higher than this.

Tier 4
8. Washington - Wall + Arenas = explosive. Alot depends on what Blatche & McGee do.
9. New York - Anthony Randolph will be a breakout star but their backcourt is ugh at best. Felton will not be answer at PG.
9. Philadelphia - Doug Collins will have this team fighting tooth and nail and united in eventually hating Doug Collins.
10. Indiana - Nice frontcourt but they may have the worst backcourt in the league. Gaping holes at PG & SG. Their best options at guard might be AJ Price & Lance Stephenson, yikes!

Tier 5
12. Detroit - Greg Monroe will help eventually but there's no roster that has worst balance than Detroit. Their two best players at SG and two more SGs masquerading as PGs. Dumars has lost his magic touch years ago.
13. New Jersey - Outside of drafting Favors they had a horrible offseason. Should double their win total but that's only because its really hard to be as bad as they were again.
14. Toronto - Unless Bargnani becomes the next Dirk & Demar DeRozan is the next Pippen this team is DOA.
15. Cleveland - LeBron dropped a napalm bomb on Cleveland. Easily the worst collection of talent in the league.

[closg00]

ESPN ranks the East - Wizards at 9th

Fair ranking, seeds 7 & 8 are up for grabs IMO.