What will Mcgee and Wall average next season

[rrini]

Javale McGee- 15 points 9 rebounds 2 assists 2 blocks 2 turnovers

John Wall- 16 points 8 assists 4 rebounds 1 steal almost a block 3 turnovers

Your thoughts?

[nate33]

McGee will score and rebound if he is given the minutes. He will get minutes if he plays defense. So McGee's averages next year will depend on his willingness to play defense.

[mohammed10]

Wall with a nearly 3:1 assist:turnover ratio?

That would exceed our wildest expectations

[pancakes3]

15 pts is way too high. i'd be surprised if even wall nets 15 after gil, blatche, and howard gets theirs. mcgee is relegated to single digit scoring/rebounding for sure. something along the lines of 8/8, i'd say.

blatche with a more impressive 18/8.

wall clocking in with a 14/7apg with at least 3.5 to/game

we're putting in too much faith in the young'ns. gil is the keystone. 23.5/4/5 with a career year from 3p%.

howard is also a bit of an x-factor. his contract is microscopic but he's no scrub. he has potential to score around 16.5 and pull down 6.5 boards.

that's still an unrealistically optimistic 80 ppg from the starting 5.

anyway, the point is, mcgee will NOT be scoring anything close to 15 ppg. 8-9 rpg is expected though, and 2bpg isn't out of the realm of possibility especially if he gets 36+mins. as for the 2 assists projection... laughable. blatche will barely top 2 apg. Mcgee will be lucky to get 0.7apg.

[Illuminaire]

9 pts, 4 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 15-20 DNP-CDs.

[no D in Hibachi]

I could care less what McGee averages as long as he doesn't throw up those ridiculous off balanced jumpers that have a snowballs chance of making it AND as long as he plays at least average defense for his position. McGee was asked by team USA to play defense and rebound the ball. If he did those two things I think he would have made the team. If he does those two things for the Wiz I think they make the playoffs.

[hands11]

I could care less what McGee averages as long as he doesn't throw up those ridiculous off balanced jumpers that have a snowballs chance of making it AND as long as he plays at least average defense for his position. McGee was asked by team USA to play defense and rebound the ball. If he did those two things I think he would have made the team. If he does those two things for the Wiz I think they make the playoffs.

So nothing has changed since the last thread we talked about this.

We just have to face facts. There is really nothing new to hash out until we get some news or they start practicing.

For Walls stats

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/chris_pau ... stats.html

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/derrick_r ... stats.html

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/rajon_ron ... stats.html


If he is as good as people think he will be he should be at 15-16pts a game. Specially if he is getting to the line as much as we saw.

So

Wall 14-16
Gil 22-26 - He averaged 22.6 and 7 last year. I would expect the same or better this year.
Howard/AT combo 16ish
Dray 20-24 - post All Star break he averaged 22 and 8. If he got to the line more that would help.
Kirk 8-10
McGee 8
Yi 8

Thats a good bit of scoring. That 96 on the low side and 108 on the high side

Scoring points shouldn't be a problem. But if the other team is scoring 98-110, your racking up a lot of losses. It's all going to come down to D. Wall will be fine. So will Kirk but those guys are only out front. Its going to be about what can Dray, McGee, Armstrong, AT, Yi and Seraphin down around the boards.

We may have been tired about getting busted for 3 after 3 in the past. This year, its more likely to be drive and foul or drive and dunk. And it's likely to be like that until we get someone close to what Haywood did for us. As much as I hate it, Dray will need to be the center on defense until we see how much Armstrong and Seraphin can give us. Those are the only two on the roster who have any touch guy in them. Yi and McGee don't. If Dray is defending centers, I feel it would be easier for us to find other players who can defend at PF then everything else should look ok.

If Dray is really 6-11 260 and lifting weights, he can handle the job. But if he gets hurt, we aren't going to win many games. Dray is the key if we are going to win.

If Wall goes down, you have Kirk
If Gil is off, you have Kirk and Nick
No Howard, we have AT, Yi, Nick, Booker
PF can be played by Armstrong, McGee, Seraphin, Yi, AT, Booker if Dray is at center.

But no Dray at center or PF. We are hosed. Good news is that 2 of the last 3 years, Dray only missed 1 game. The other year he missed 11. It would be hard for me to see us winning a game with Dray out so if he is out 11 games I could count that as 10 losses. Lets hope he does what he did the other two years and comes to camp healthy.

[sfam]

McGee will score and rebound if he is given the minutes. He will get minutes if he plays defense. So McGee's averages next year will depend on his willingness to play defense.

Translation: "McGee won't be playing that much..."

[sfam]

Javale McGee- 15 points 9 rebounds 2 assists 2 blocks 2 turnovers

John Wall- 16 points 8 assists 4 rebounds 1 steal almost a block 3 turnovers

Your thoughts?

I'm wondering if we could add a stat: How many times per game McGee gives up uncontested layups. I'm going with 3 for the over-under.

Regarding Wall, I'm thinking he's going to be far closer to 1.5-2 steals, and probably closer to .4 blocks. Agree on the TOs , but would probably guess 14 & 7 for points and assists.

[montestewart]

With the passing of Blatche and Arenas, Wall may get fewer assists (maybe even under 6 per) but it might produce an exciting dynamic, keeping defenses guessing about passes and strikes and allowing Wall's athleticism to produce for him a higher scoring average, penetrating for easy, assisted scores: Wall 17 ppg/6apg, Arenas 22 ppg/5apg, Blatche 18 ppg/3 apg. McGee could be anywhere from 8-15 ppg, depending on his overall effectiveness versus his alternative (Seraphim, Armstrong).

Rose's TO rate went down when he got to the pros, and was under 3 per game. So was Deron Williams. I guess it depends on how Wall's game translates to the NBA, but I'm not assuming a 2/1 ATR or more than 3 TOs a game.

[pancakes3]

i think mcgee will get minutes regardless of defensive effort. armstrong is just insurance fodder. unless seraphin lives up to his 6'10 listing, he won't be getting many minutes either. as much as i want Yi to succeed, he's just better playing against cones than players.

at the MINIMUM, playing thabeet-level defense, javale will be logging 24 mpg.

[hands11]

With the passing of Blatche and Arenas, Wall may get fewer assists (maybe even under 6 per) but it might produce an exciting dynamic, keeping defenses guessing about passes and strikes and allowing Wall's athleticism to produce for him a higher scoring average, penetrating for easy, assisted scores: Wall 17 ppg/6apg, Arenas 22 ppg/5apg, Blatche 18 ppg/3 apg. McGee could be anywhere from 8-15 ppg, depending on his overall effectiveness versus his alternative (Seraphim, Armstrong).

Rose's TO rate went down when he got to the pros, and was under 3 per game. So was Deron Williams. I guess it depends on how Wall's game translates to the NBA, but I'm not assuming a 2/1 ATR or more than 3 TOs a game.

McGee is going to have games of 15 and even more, but I find it hard to believe he averages 15.

8-10 ppg is most likely his range next year. But it really depends on how they line them up. He is going to have to show he can defend center or PF or he isn't going to get more than 16-20 minutes a game.

He averaged 16 mpg last year and averaged 6.4 ppg. If he gets 20 mpg, I can see him averaging 8-9.

But going from 6.4 ppg to 15 ppg would be insane improvement. That would only happen if he is playing 32 minutes a game and included as part of the offense. He is going to get alley opps and put backs. They aren't running plays for him when we have Wall, Gil, Dray, Howard, Kirk and Nick.

[montestewart]

^
I like the idea of McGee taking such an insane jump in scoring; even if his defense fails to progress, it will make him that much more attractive in trades. Given the alternatives at center, he might get enough minutes to make a big leap, but yes, 15 ppg would be pretty astonishing.

[sfam]

With the passing of Blatche and Arenas, Wall may get fewer assists...

I hadn't realized Blatche and Arenas died!

[hands11]

^
I like the idea of McGee taking such an insane jump in scoring; even if his defense fails to progress, it will make him that much more attractive in trades. Given the alternatives at center, he might get enough minutes to make a big leap, but yes, 15 ppg would be pretty astonishing.

Why do you want to trade such a physically talented freak who is only 22 still.

I want us to keep this kid around because in about 2-3 years, he is going to be pretty awesome.
Good thing we didn't trade Haywood or Dray like other wanted before they had a chance to develop.

Sucks we ended up loosing Haywood and we didn't use him better when he was here but we did at least get something out of him and cheaply at that.

The kid is still growing at 7-1 and only played two years and just added 7 lbs of muscle. Even team USA is intrigued. Problem is, he isn't ready yet. I wouldn't even be considering moving him yet.

No way.

[GhostsOfGil]

^
I like the idea of McGee taking such an insane jump in scoring; even if his defense fails to progress, it will make him that much more attractive in trades. Given the alternatives at center, he might get enough minutes to make a big leap, but yes, 15 ppg would be pretty astonishing.

+1 his value will sky rocket if his ppg goes above 12. i think gms around the league are already taking a long look at this guy and marveling at his potential.

[hands11]

i think mcgee will get minutes regardless of defensive effort. armstrong is just insurance fodder. unless seraphin lives up to his 6'10 listing, he won't be getting many minutes either. as much as i want Yi to succeed, he's just better playing against cones than players.

at the MINIMUM, playing thabeet-level defense, javale will be logging 24 mpg.

But you are ignoring that Dray may well end up playing defensive center. If that is the case, McGee is competition against players who may well be able to defend at PF better than him while still giving up what we need on offense.

Regardless of where Dray plays on D, he is going to be a primary option on offense both off the post and on the wing. Actually even off the top of the key. Dray and Gil should be getting most of the plays called for them.

Whoever is in the front court with him on offense isn't going to need to be a big scoring option. They are going to need to rebound, box out and cover other PFs. When that is the roles, Armstrong, Yi, AT, Seraphin, and Booker are more competitive to McGee in regards to getting minutes.

So he goes from competition against undersized questionable players or rookies to more challenged to better than players who are vets and have the size or skills to cover the position ( defensive PF - and on offense - pick setter, board crasher, space creator. That could easily be Arstrong, Booker or Seraphin while it to a lesser degree being AT and Yi.

McGee is in no way a guaranty to get any more than 16-20 minutes a game.

[hands11]

^
I like the idea of McGee taking such an insane jump in scoring; even if his defense fails to progress, it will make him that much more attractive in trades. Given the alternatives at center, he might get enough minutes to make a big leap, but yes, 15 ppg would be pretty astonishing.

+1 his value will sky rocket if his ppg goes above 12. i think gms around the league are already taking a long look at this guy and marveling at his potential.

That would be the opposite of what I would want. I would rather him go to 8 ppg and stay under their radar till we sign him longer term.

[montestewart]

^
It's a balancing analysis on keeping/trading McGee. If his defense fails to progress but it's apparent that he's trying and willing to listen and just experiencing growing pains, then I hope they continue to allow him to develop. If he fails to progress because he's a knucklehead that just wants to block shots and alley-oop, then trading him might be an imperative move, regardless of his physical specimen. I wouldn't want to have to pay too much to resign him, if by the second contract, the team's still essentially paying for the same "potential" that was there all along, still waiting for some "actual." At that point, a higher scoring average might make him more attractive to other teams willing to pay $7-10 million.

[Dat2U]

McGee is in no way a guaranty to get any more than 16-20 minutes a game.

Ridiculous. Exactly who on the roster is going to take minutes away from McGee? EG for better or worse has forced the coaching staff into playing McGee heavy minutes next season because there are no viable alternatives.

If its not McGee, its either going to be Yi, Armstrong, Seraphin or Booker getting minutes. Even if you got Blatche at C, you still need someone to play PF. I know McGee's defense is dreadful but I fail to see a better option. Armstrong may provide nominally better defense but he's a complete stiff. Seraphin & Booker are raw rookies. If Yi plays like he has thus far in his NBA career & this summer he's not going to steal minutes from anyone.

McGee gets 24-28 minutes a night at bare minimum. If he's not a total waste defensively he might more than 30 on many nights.