How do you fix this team?

[Nivek]

If McGee had a developed post-up game, the Wizards would run post-ups for him. If McGee had a jumper worth a damn, they'd get him jumpers. Flip isn't stupid. He's not running plays for McGee because he already knows the outcome. He doesn't need to "try it" so he can "get a look at it" during games because he has practice and scrimmages, and because he knows exactly what the players are working on (and aren't).

McGee -- with his current skillset -- is not an efficient post-up scorer that's merely being held back by incompetent coaching. He's lacking the skills necessary to be a go-to offensive player. IF he gets those skills, he'll have no shortage of plays run for him.

[dobrojim]

If Seraphin takes the starting job from McGee, it's an embarrassment for McGee. I like Seraphin's progress, but he's not a starter. He's a project, just like almost everyone else on the roster. I wouldn't rule out Seraphin as a potential starter down the line, but I think it's going to be a couple years before he's starter quality. That doesn't mean he won't beat out McGee for the job as early as next season -- it'll just mean that the Wizards continue to have a sub-standard center.

I meant to follow up on this before I got sidetracked focusing only on McGee.

As usual, there's not a lot here that a reasonable observer can disagree with.

While recognizing that the path of player development is difficult to
predict at best, the slope of Seraphin's development, especially given
his youth (21) and his relative inexperience, seems to me to be steeper
than JM's was or is. He simply seems to have a more fundamentally sound approach
to the game. He may never give us the highlight reel plays that JM does,
but maybe more of the old Wes Unseld type contributions to being a winner.
There are clearly times when we could use an immovable force.

I was recently told by someone in Wizards media that mgmt expected
KS to be in the D league this year. Now he may not exactly be setting
the league on fire at this time, the fact that he's even getting consistent
minutes is, for the moment anyway, a positive sign. It's still very possible
that taking the next step(s) will not be nearly as easy.

the best possible outcome would be for KS' development to force
Javale to take a long look in the mirror and get to work. Maybe then
the team wouldn't be stuck with sub-std play at the 5.

[tontoz]

Last night they focused on Bogut posting up Kevin on one play and Bogut couldn't move him backwards at all. Bogut tried going right and left and each time was stopped cold. Kevin has a lot to learn but has shown some encouraging signs.

I also liked what i saw from Crawford last night. He likes to drive but does it with his head up looking for cutters. He has made some nice passes and had some impressive finishes inside.

[eitanr]

Enough about McGee. I would also like to see extended minutes at some point to Trevor Booker. Book has been one of the few bright spots of late. Let's see what he can do given starters' minutes perhaps down the stretch, or at least extended time. I know we should be developing Kevinn, but Book is a rook too and could surprise some folks down the stretch.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If McGee had a developed post-up game, the Wizards would run post-ups for him. If McGee had a jumper worth a damn, they'd get him jumpers. Flip isn't stupid. He's not running plays for McGee because he already knows the outcome. He doesn't need to "try it" so he can "get a look at it" during games because he has practice and scrimmages, and because he knows exactly what the players are working on (and aren't).

McGee -- with his current skillset -- is not an efficient post-up scorer that's merely being held back by incompetent coaching. He's lacking the skills necessary to be a go-to offensive player. IF he gets those skills, he'll have no shortage of plays run for him.

One game last year McGee had 25 and 15 in under 30 minutes off the bench. In the win over Boston, a great defensive team, McGee scored in a variety of ways. He hit jumpers. Broke down players off the dribble. If seen him drive three quarters court and finish. I've seen a nice hook from McGee. McGee has terrific hands for a big.

Nivek, I don't like labels, but you say Flip isn't stupid and Flip knows outcomes. What I truly believe is I've never seen a coach get less out of talented players. I guess Flip knew injured Stevenson was so much better than Young that Nick deserved all those DNP-CDs last season? Flip knows the jumpers by Blatche give him a better chance to win than hustle play by Booker? He's sure to rarely put Seraphin in with Booker and never McGee with Seraphin because he knows better? He knew three guards with Hinrich was good for Wall this season?

In my opinion, McGee's a good player and this season and especially last haven't been Flip's best.

[tontoz]

If McGee had a developed post-up game, the Wizards would run post-ups for him. If McGee had a jumper worth a damn, they'd get him jumpers. Flip isn't stupid. He's not running plays for McGee because he already knows the outcome. He doesn't need to "try it" so he can "get a look at it" during games because he has practice and scrimmages, and because he knows exactly what the players are working on (and aren't).

McGee -- with his current skillset -- is not an efficient post-up scorer that's merely being held back by incompetent coaching. He's lacking the skills necessary to be a go-to offensive player. IF he gets those skills, he'll have no shortage of plays run for him.

One game last year McGee had 25 and 15 in under 30 minutes off the bench. In the win over Boston, a great defensive team, McGee scored in a variety of ways. He hit jumpers. Broke down players off the dribble. If seen him drive three quarters court and finish. I've seen a nice hook from McGee. McGee has terrific hands for a big.

Using one game is pretty weak . I remember Salim Stoudamire as a rookie dropping 24 pts in one quarter against the Hornets. Last i heard he was in the D-League.

If a player doesn't have the willingness and ability to learn then it doesn't matter much who the coach is. By his 3rd season i would think he would know to roll on a pick and roll.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

There have been a lot of players who have scored 24 in a quarter.

One player since 1984 did what McGee did off the bench: Kevin McHale.

Call that pretty weak if you choose, tontoz. Subjectively, I think it's significant that McGee's told to rebound and defend while others shoot jump shots.

[tontoz]

There have been a lot of players who have scored 24 in a quarter.

One player since 1984 did what McGee did off the bench: Kevin McHale.

Call that pretty weak if you choose, tontoz. Subjectively, I think it's significant that McGee's told to rebound and defend while others shoot jump shots.

I would guess not many rookies have dropped 24 in a quarter off the bench either.One game just isn't that significant.

Camby and Chandler were told to rebound and defend too. It isn't like they have ever gotten significant post up opportunities. I doubt they used that as an excuse for poor play.

[Nivek]

If McGee had a developed post-up game, the Wizards would run post-ups for him. If McGee had a jumper worth a damn, they'd get him jumpers. Flip isn't stupid. He's not running plays for McGee because he already knows the outcome. He doesn't need to "try it" so he can "get a look at it" during games because he has practice and scrimmages, and because he knows exactly what the players are working on (and aren't).

McGee -- with his current skillset -- is not an efficient post-up scorer that's merely being held back by incompetent coaching. He's lacking the skills necessary to be a go-to offensive player. IF he gets those skills, he'll have no shortage of plays run for him.

One game last year McGee had 25 and 15 in under 30 minutes off the bench. In the win over Boston, a great defensive team, McGee scored in a variety of ways. He hit jumpers. Broke down players off the dribble. If seen him drive three quarters court and finish. I've seen a nice hook from McGee. McGee has terrific hands for a big.

Nivek, I don't like labels, but you say Flip isn't stupid and Flip knows outcomes. What I truly believe is I've never seen a coach get less out of talented players. I guess Flip knew injured Stevenson was so much better than Young that Nick deserved all those DNP-CDs last season? Flip knows the jumpers by Blatche give him a better chance to win than hustle play by Booker? He's sure to rarely put Seraphin in with Booker and never McGee with Seraphin because he knows better? He knew three guards with Hinrich was good for Wall this season?

In my opinion, McGee's a good player and this season and especially last haven't been Flip's best.

Flip is not trying to win games. He's trying to develop young players -- in some cases, apparently against their will.

As for Javale's good game -- yeah, it was terrific. He's an incredible athlete, and everything went his way that night. Lots of guys can have a good game now and then. If you seriously think McGee could do anything approaching that on a nightly basis, I think you vastly overestimate his abilities. If he could do that every night, his coach would ADORE him (and be feeding him the ball).

McGee's 25 & 15 in 30 minutes has been done 17 other times since 86-87 (which is when b-r's box score database starts). (I don't really see the significance of not starting the game -- minutes are minutes. And, there's evidence to suggest that not starting actually would make this kind of thing easier.)

It's a good group of players. Oddly, Josh Howard did it in 2004. Two players did it twice -- Robert Parish and Shawn Kemp.

Here's the list (by points scored)

- Alonzo
- Dwight Howard
- Brad Daugherty
- Amare
- David Robinson
- Shaq
- Karl Malone
- Moses
- Bynum
- Kemp (x2)
- Ewing
- Josh Howard
- KG
- Parish (x2)
- Javale
- Cedric Ceballos

Of course, this has me thinking of something Hollinger mentioned at the Analytics conference. Something about the fallacy of arbitrary end points. Why is a single good game of 25 & 15 in 30 minutes or less more significant than 31 minutes or 32 or 29? Why is 25 points more significant than 24? Why is 15 rebounds more significant than 24?

And, totally irrelevant, but that 25 & 15 in 30 minutes or less thing happened to Detroit, Golden State, Houston and LA Clippers twice each.

[queridiculo]

I'm starting to think that CCJ is really Javale's mom.

[Nivek]

There have been a lot of players who have scored 24 in a quarter.

One player since 1984 did what McGee did off the bench: Kevin McHale.

Call that pretty weak if you choose, tontoz. Subjectively, I think it's significant that McGee's told to rebound and defend while others shoot jump shots.

It is significant that the Wizards don't want him shooting jumpers. It's because he sucks at shooting jumpers. On FGA outside of 10 feet this season, he's 21-75. Efg of .280.

Blatche isn't much better (an efg of .320), but the Wizards may be hoping that he'll get back to shooting jumpers like he did last season when his efg outside of 10 feet was .397.

Thing is, if you're the coach, who would you want shooting jumpers if you're forced to choose between Blatche and McGee? I'd happily trade Blatche for an expiring contract, and I'd take him shooting jumpers over McGee.

[dobrojim]

^ come on, you know better

I do think Kev struck on something which I'm often guilty of
myself, thinking our players are better than they are.

[dobrojim]

There have been a lot of players who have scored 24 in a quarter.

One player since 1984 did what McGee did off the bench: Kevin McHale.

Call that pretty weak if you choose, tontoz. Subjectively, I think it's significant that McGee's told to rebound and defend while others shoot jump shots.

It is significant that the Wizards don't want him shooting jumpers. It's because he sucks at shooting jumpers. On FGA outside of 10 feet this season, he's 21-75. Efg of .280.

Blatche isn't much better (an efg of .320), but the Wizards may be hoping that he'll get back to shooting jumpers like he did last season when his efg outside of 10 feet was .397.

Thing is, if you're the coach, who would you want shooting jumpers if you're forced to choose between Blatche and McGee? I'd happily trade Blatche for an expiring contract, and I'd take him shooting jumpers over McGee.

easy, Nick Young.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Okay, I will give you McGee doubters/haters pretty much proof you are wrong. You will still doubt me, but deep down a few of you will start to see the light.

McGee has played 36 or more minute six times. The Wizards record in those games: 5-1 (Sort by minutes)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

McGee has played 31 or more minutes fourteen times: 8-6 is Washington's record.
McGee has attempted 10 or more shots, nine times: 4-5.

Think McGee's shotblocking doesn't matter? Wizards are 8-4 in games where McGee blocks 4 or more shots. Wizards are 8-43 in the other games where he has less than 4 blocks. (Same game logs, sort by blocks.)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

Guess what? In five other wins, McGee had 3 blocks! So, 11-9 is Washington's record when Javale has had three or more blocks. 4-38 is the Wizard record when McGee blocks two or less.

Note McGee averages a double double and over three blocks per-36 minutes. I have said fire Flip to improve this team. I should add play McGee 36 minutes and encourage him to block shots. I disagree with a lot I read on this site.

Just looking at Wizard wins I see a huge likelihood that McGee had a lot of minutes, blocks, field goal attempts (7 or more, but 9 looks optimal to me). When McGee's game scores have been average or better (9.8+) the Wizards have won a majority of their games.

I think McGee is much better than Saunders or the majority of posters here think he is.

[Nivek]

Okay, I will give you McGee doubters/haters pretty much proof you are wrong. You will still doubt me, but deep down a few of you will start to see the light.

McGee has played 36 or more minute six times. The Wizards record in those games: 5-1

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

McGee has played 31 or more minutes fourteen times: 8-6 is Washington's record.
McGee has attempted 10 or more shots, nine times: 4-5.

Think McGee's shotblocking doesn't matter? Wizards are 8-3 in games where McGee blocks 4 or more shots. Wizards are 8-44 in the other games where he has less than 4 blocks. Same logs, sorted by blocks.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

Guess what? In five other wins, McGee had 3 blocks! So, 11-9 is Washington's record when Javale has had three or more blocks. 4-38 is the Wizard record when McGee blocks two or less.

Note McGee averages a double double and over three blocks per-36 minutes. I have said fire Flip to improve this team. I should add play McGee 36 minutes and encourage him to block shots. I disagree with a lot I read on this site.

Just looking at Wizard wins I see a huge likelihood that McGee had a lot of minutes, blocks, field goal attempts (7 or more, but 9 looks optimal to me). When McGee's game scores have been average or better (9.8+) the Wizards have won a majority of their games.

I think McGee is much better than Saunders or the majority of posters here think he is.

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I don't see how this proves McGee is a good player. When McGee plays well, the team wins. That's not surprising. The issue is that he doesn't play well often enough. The reason he doesn't play well very often is that he lacks basic skills. And, he hasn't demonstrated a willingness to gain those skills. At least not yet.

[fishercob]

Come on, CCJ. I'm all for staying patient with McGee, but you well know that correlation and causality are two completely different things.

[tontoz]

I will go out on a limb and say Flip is probably more likely to play McGee big minutes when he is playing well.

[Zonkerbl]

Argh, CCJ, we had this conversation already!!!

I ... keep... getting... pulled... back... in!

Yes, when McGee is playing well he gets more minutes. IF ONLY HE WOULD PLAY WELL MORE OFTEN WE WOULDN'T EVEN BE HAVING THIS CONVERSATION!!!

We'd be complaining about how player development and all is great but drafting 14th reaaaaally sucks.

[nate33]

I will go out on a limb and say Flip is probably more likely to play McGee big minutes when he is playing well.

+1

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Okay, I will give you McGee doubters/haters pretty much proof you are wrong. You will still doubt me, but deep down a few of you will start to see the light.

McGee has played 36 or more minute six times. The Wizards record in those games: 5-1

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

McGee has played 31 or more minutes fourteen times: 8-6 is Washington's record.
McGee has attempted 10 or more shots, nine times: 4-5.

Think McGee's shotblocking doesn't matter? Wizards are 8-3 in games where McGee blocks 4 or more shots. Wizards are 8-44 in the other games where he has less than 4 blocks. Same logs, sorted by blocks.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/

Guess what? In five other wins, McGee had 3 blocks! So, 11-9 is Washington's record when Javale has had three or more blocks. 4-38 is the Wizard record when McGee blocks two or less.

Note McGee averages a double double and over three blocks per-36 minutes. I have said fire Flip to improve this team. I should add play McGee 36 minutes and encourage him to block shots. I disagree with a lot I read on this site.

Just looking at Wizard wins I see a huge likelihood that McGee had a lot of minutes, blocks, field goal attempts (7 or more, but 9 looks optimal to me). When McGee's game scores have been average or better (9.8+) the Wizards have won a majority of their games.

I think McGee is much better than Saunders or the majority of posters here think he is.

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I don't see how this proves McGee is a good player. When McGee plays well, the team wins. That's not surprising. The issue is that he doesn't play well often enough. The reason he doesn't play well very often is that he lacks basic skills. And, he hasn't demonstrated a willingness to gain those skills. At least not yet.

Check games where McGee played 21:30 or less. Zero wins.

Use McGee's production in terms of per-minute averages in those games and see where and how it differs with the games where he played more minutes, say 31 or more. My guess is discover amazingly similar numbers regardless of minutes played.

Saunders often sits McGee when he has played well IMO. He sits McGee reflexively and subjectively. Nivek, I think wins came as a function of minutes or QUANTITY of McGee's play, not QUALITY.

That's why I think Flip is a bad coach.

With McGee you play guy 35 minutes, whether he's out in space, a momma's boy, selfish, out of position, goaltends a heap. Dude's a freak of nature. Stop reigning him in all the time.

Please educate me on this, Nivek. You're very smart but IMO wrong about McGee.