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Jordan Crawford

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Post#436 Re: Jordan Crawford
Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:51 pm by Nivek

payitforward wrote:
I see very little so far this season to indicate statistically or from just watching to suggest Crawford's decision-making has changed at all. His shooting percentages are about the same, his turnovers are up, his usage rate is about the same, his offensive rating is even worse. His rebounding is MUCH better and his assists are up, but I doubt either number will persist.

More subjectively -- during one of his better shooting games this season, I commented on Twitter that his shot selection seemed the same as it did in previous years (ridiculously long 3s, etc.), but that some of those bad shots were going in. I predicted that those bad shots would stop going in, which is what I think we're seeing.

It's still early in the season, of course, but Crawford looks to me like he's about the same as he's been in previous seasons. Only big differences are rebounds and assists (positive) and turnovers (negative).

It's probably pointless to discuss changes in Crawford's game based on so few minutes -- what he does tonight might change his numbers significantly.

That said, I think you are demonstrably wrong so far -- his ball control hasn't really changed. I.e. rebounds + steals minus turnovers is almost exactly as it was last season. But he's shooting more 3s at a slightly higher %, and his 2pt % is up as well. His WS40 is at 5.3 -- vs. 2.1 last year. You may prefer your system, but per position ws40 correlates extremely closely w/ wins and losses (i.e. effects on same).

After tonight he may be back to 2.1 of course. Or back up at 6.3 where he was before last night's game. I don't see any hope for Crawford ever to be a good player, but if he could just be below average rather than hideous, that'd be something.[/quote]

Well, if I'm "demonstrably wrong" about Crawford, I guess we're in the same boat considering you posted basically the same stuff I did, but with different wording.

Did I post in Russian or something?

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Post#437 Re: Jordan Crawford
Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:52 pm by GhostsOfGil

AFM wrote:Maybe it's just the failure of my eye test then. Crawford was maddening last year. Or maybe I've just been desensitized to it.


He's rebounding and assisting at a much higher rate but his usage rate and shooting %s are about the same.

Honestly, I feel the same way you do AFM but im starting to think it's just because we've seen less of him. His minutes are down significantly, this year.
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Post#438 Re: Jordan Crawford
Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:01 pm by AFM

At least he's been trying to get to the basket.... No one else plays aggressively, save maybe Martell....
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Post#439 Re: Jordan Crawford
Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:22 pm by hands11

Crawford in at PG. Team down by 20 something and dead in the water. Heartless. Kevin S sucking for 3 games in a row.

Then something changed. Got it down to 3 or 4. Kevin was balln. Martin nailing 3 balls. They still lost. But Crawford at PG changed the way the entire team played. A team needs a PG they believe in. That wasn't Price or Pargo.

We will see if he can keep it up but I thought he should have been the starting PG from the start. He has been playing a more balanced team game all year. And given the chance to lead the team, he did the same.

6-11 3 for 5 from 3. 6-6 from the line. 7 assist. 35 minutes. 21 pts. 4 rebounds 1 steal. Not a bad line.

And Kevin sucked until Craw was at PG. Kevin finished with 16 pts. Almost all in the late part of the game.
And Martin started lighting with 3s. 4 for 4 from 3. 14pt in 10 minutes.

Hopefully Crawford gets the start at PG next game with Beal. I said I thought Crawford could help Beal get it going. I want to see him get a chance to do it. We saw what Price could do. Time to make a change.
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Post#440 Re: Jordan Crawford
Thu Nov 15, 2012 8:20 am by fishercob

Great stat line last night. Trade him NOW.
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Post#441 Re: Jordan Crawford
Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:41 am by payitforward

Nivek wrote:
payitforward wrote:
I see very little so far this season to indicate statistically or from just watching to suggest Crawford's decision-making has changed at all. His shooting percentages are about the same, his turnovers are up, his usage rate is about the same, his offensive rating is even worse. His rebounding is MUCH better and his assists are up, but I doubt either number will persist.

More subjectively -- during one of his better shooting games this season, I commented on Twitter that his shot selection seemed the same as it did in previous years (ridiculously long 3s, etc.), but that some of those bad shots were going in. I predicted that those bad shots would stop going in, which is what I think we're seeing.

It's still early in the season, of course, but Crawford looks to me like he's about the same as he's been in previous seasons. Only big differences are rebounds and assists (positive) and turnovers (negative).

It's probably pointless to discuss changes in Crawford's game based on so few minutes -- what he does tonight might change his numbers significantly.

That said, I think you are demonstrably wrong so far -- his ball control hasn't really changed. I.e. rebounds + steals minus turnovers is almost exactly as it was last season. But he's shooting more 3s at a slightly higher %, and his 2pt % is up as well. His WS40 is at 5.3 -- vs. 2.1 last year. You may prefer your system, but per position ws40 correlates extremely closely w/ wins and losses (i.e. effects on same).

After tonight he may be back to 2.1 of course. Or back up at 6.3 where he was before last night's game. I don't see any hope for Crawford ever to be a good player, but if he could just be below average rather than hideous, that'd be something.


Well, if I'm "demonstrably wrong" about Crawford, I guess we're in the same boat considering you posted basically the same stuff I did, but with different wording.

Did I post in Russian or something?

:D[/quote]
No, but you got the "quote" marks all wrong, so that you are saying what I said.... Wait a minute, maybe that was intentional! :0

I should have been more specific -- it was your remark on shooting percentages that I thought was off. After one more game it's even farther off!

Overall, we have the same take on Jordan Crawford. Until the sample size is larger, lets just assume that this season will look a lot like last season for him.
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Post#442 Re: Jordan Crawford
Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:23 am by Nivek

I see what you're saying on shooting percentages. My "about the same" line was a nod toward the limited sample size. He was (and now more so) shooting a better percentage, but close enough to previous levels that a handful of shots could swing his percentages significantly in one direction or the other.

For example, last season Crawford shot .451 from two-point range -- this year he's shooting .486. The difference in actual shots: 1.7 made field goals. One additional miss and he's at .459. His 3pt% this season is .357, up from .289 last year. The difference: about 2 made 3s. Essentially, the "improved" shooting so far amounts to 4 additional made shots in 65 attempts (including last night's game).

All that said, our view of him is similar.

Here's my excuse on the fouled up quote -- I was tapping on an iPad. I pretty much hate touch screens, but my wife was using the only working iPad keyboard.

As a total aside -- watching games with Wiz fans via Twitter has been fun this season.
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Post#443 Re: Jordan Crawford
Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:37 am by pancakes3

Won't happen. He's the Andray Blatche of guards. Tons of potential and moments where he flashes. He may even string together a few games but if he was going to be good, he would be. He's got 2 full seasons under his belt and he can't top 40% shooting from the field (sub 30% from 3). He could have improved his jumper easily to set himself up as the kick-out for Wall but he didn't. The recent "hot streak" that has afforded him 43% shooting is a result of 2 fluke games out of 7. He'll always take more 3's than FT's, take ill-advised shots, and have a severe case of the tunnel vision.

Cherry-picking games here and there should not affect anyone's decision.
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Post#444 Re: Jordan Crawford
Thu Nov 15, 2012 12:56 pm by tontoz

pancakes3 wrote:He's got 2 full seasons under his belt and he can't top 40% shooting from the field (sub 30% from 3). He could have improved his jumper easily to set himself up as the kick-out for Wall but he didn't. .



Not really two full seasons. In his rookie season he hardly played until he was traded here. Last year it was a shortened season with no summer league, no training camp and no preseason.

I think we need to wait awhile before we make a final call on him.
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Post#445 Re: Jordan Crawford
Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:25 pm by DCZards

tontoz wrote:
Not really two full seasons. In his rookie season he hardly played until he was traded here. Last year it was a shortened season with no summer league, no training camp and no preseason.

I think we need to wait awhile before we make a final call on him.


Agreed. Yes, Jordan is very often frustrating to watch and some of his shots (and fouls) are of the dumbest variety. But he's also one of the reasons that the Zards have even been competitive in games this year. You can count on Crawford scratching and competing from start to finish. I love that about him.

Let's see what happens when Crawford is truly a 6th man playing behind (and with) Wall and a more experienced and confident Beal.
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Post#446 Re: Jordan Crawford
Thu Nov 15, 2012 2:10 pm by hands11

Still a small sample size but numbers holding two games later. Some up. Some down a little.

TS% .538
eFG% .508
AST% 30.7

FG% .431
3P% .357

Per 36
18.7 pts 5.7 Asts 6.4 Rbs Shot attempts down 2.5 per 36 from last year.

Shooting less but a better percentage.

And he played a few games on a bad ankle. Crawford deserves some props. He gets slammed plenty here. He is playing better and has shown some improvement and maturity. In a small sample size.
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Post#447 Re: Jordan Crawford
Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:27 pm by AFM

I give Crawford some props tonight. Able to create something from nothing. Pretty sure that violates a Law of Physics.
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Post#448 Re: Jordan Crawford
Sat Nov 17, 2012 11:17 pm by miller31time

hands11 wrote:Still a small sample size but numbers holding two games later. Some up. Some down a little.

TS% .538
eFG% .508
AST% 30.7

FG% .431
3P% .357

Per 36
18.7 pts 5.7 Asts 6.4 Rbs Shot attempts down 2.5 per 36 from last year.

Shooting less but a better percentage.

And he played a few games on a bad ankle. Crawford deserves some props. He gets slammed plenty here. He is playing better and has shown some improvement and maturity. In a small sample size.


Agreed. As one of the guys here who was initially a big JC fan, then tampered off big-time last season when I saw essentially no progression and the same chucker attitude, I'll certainly give him props. He seems to be the only competent basketball player we have right now.

Yeah, the inner Chuckford comes out every once in a while but on the whole, he's making entirely better decisions with the basketball and putting to use that surprisingly good passing game of his. He's also not getting a lot of respect from the refs right now (it's something that's earned) so I feel like his free throw attempts should be higher as would his efficiency.

Overall, one of the few bright spots for this team right now -- the emergence of Jordan Crawford as a potential good 6th man option for our team if we can build it properly.
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Post#449 Re: Jordan Crawford
Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:23 am by DCZards

miller31time wrote:Yeah, the inner Chuckford comes out every once in a while but on the whole, he's making entirely better decisions with the basketball and putting to use that surprisingly good passing game of his. He's also not getting a lot of respect from the refs right now (it's something that's earned) so I feel like his free throw attempts should be higher as would his efficiency.

Overall, one of the few bright spots for this team right now -- the emergence of Jordan Crawford as a potential good 6th man option for our team if we can build it properly.


Agreed. Crawford is looking more and more like the potentially solid 6th man and combo guard that many of us hope he can become.
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Post#450 Re: Jordan Crawford
Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:20 am by tontoz

In only 23 minutes Crawford is averaging 12 pts, 4 assists (no small feat on this team) and 3.5 rebounds. Small sample size but still it seems like he is the only guy on the team that is playing respectably.
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Post#451 Re: Jordan Crawford
Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:37 pm by hands11

hands11 wrote:We talked a lot about Crawford inefficiency over the time he has been here and this last offseason.

So how is he looking so far this year. He basic stats are looking better.

His 3 ball % is up and that is helping to pull up his FG%
He efficiency should look even better when he brings his FT% up to something more normal. He is at .600 when he is a career .808 so I expect he will return to something higher then where he is.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/i ... n-crawford

His SCEFF is up from 1.076 to 1.159
His SHEFF is up from .446 to .511
His AST/TO up from 1.35 to 2.0

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... fjo02.html
Per 36
Rebounding is up from 3.5 to 5.2
AST% is way up from 19.3 to 28.5
PTS are steady at 19
PER up from 14.5 to 17.4

TS% from .448 to .527

Most of us expected he would get more efficient but we debated over how much and where that would rank him. So how is he looking so far in a limited sample size ? From the numbers, he looks more efficient.


Most of us expected he would get more efficient but we debated over how much and where that would rank him. So how is he looking so far in a limited sample size ? From the numbers, he looks more efficient.[/quote]

Year over year numbers after 7 games ( small sample size :wink: )

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... fjo02.html
MP 27.4 to 21.7 down a lot but the last two games he played 35 minutes. But he was injured a few games.

Per 36
Rebounding 3.5 last year to 6.4 - continuing up. Should come back down. Had one 9 rebound game.
FTA 4.2 to 4.5
FT% .793 to .684 - had a bad start but continuing to climb. 11-11 his last 11 attempts. 7-13 before that.
PTS 19.3 last year to 18.7 down a little

Advanced Stats
USG% 28.1 to 27.0 down as little.
AST% is way up from 19.3 to 30.7 - continuing up
DRtg 110 to 105 - defense is improving

FG% .400 to .431 ( still a little low for my liking. I want to see something like .440 to .445 )
3P% .289 to .357 ( huge improvement )
eFG% .446 last year to .508
TS% from .448 to .538 - continuing up
PER up from 14.5 to 17.4 to 16.5 - down a little

I believe my projection for him was that he would mature with his shot selection and improve his 3 pt % which would increase his efficiency. I believed he was a player the team needed to keep for now to see how he progressed. Specially since he has a fearless approach to the game and this team really needs players like that. Craw is a baller. He is the least of their problems right now. Actually, he is one of the few bright spots and is developing nicely.
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Post#452 Re: Jordan Crawford
Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:45 pm by hands11

nate33 wrote:I think he ultimately pans out as a journeyman 5th guard, or if he improves a bit more, he might find a niche as a regular-rotation backup SG.

His modest improvement this season is helpful. He might move out of the "detrimental to the team" category and into the "modestly helpful backup scorer" category. He is no where near making himself an indispensable player though. He'll probably never reach a point where he can't be replaced by some other easily-attainable free agent.



What is important is that he has have been with them 1 full ( strike shortened ) season and a part of one his first year. In his second full season with the team, he is improving and if you look at his numbers year over year since he got in the league, they are improving. His defense is getting better.

In a short sample size this year, he seems to be trending the right direction. And I can visible see it to confirm the numbers.

I was never a huge Crawford fan but I did see his value to the team. With his play so far this year, he is slowly making me more and more a fan. But while I had questions about him, I thought he was their best choice for PG until Wall returned.

Given what they had to start this year, I thought they should have put the ball in his hands and let him run the team as the starting PG. He is clearly their most talented guard with Wall out and Beal being a 19 year old rookie.

I think the team made a huge mistake wasting time looking at players like Price and Pargo. They wasted all of preseason on this experiment and it slowed the development of the other players. All they needed to do what start Crawford at PG and let Mack back him up until Livingston became available. What they should have been doing was looking for better options at SG and to do that all they needed to do was resign Mason. Adding Price was stupid. Now they are stuck with him for a year before they cut him. And they wasted time putting the ball in his hands at PG. All they needed to do was this.

Crawford/Mack
Beal/Webster/Mason

Then with Livingston who we could all see was most likely going to became free.

Crawford/Livingston/Mack
Beal/Webster/Mason

Then when Wall returns

Wall/Livingston/Mack
Crawford/Beal/Mason - two good teachers. One about swag and driving. One about spot up shooting.
Trevor A//Webster/Singleton

When your trying to craw out of the gutter, you have to be smart and efficient in your moves. You don't have time to screw around on a player like Price when you have player who have played here that are better. This blunder I put squarely on EG. Moves like this are his responsibility because they are smaller moves that Ted turns to him to decide. So he made two good moves in getting Webster and Livingston but he blow it by adding Price and Pargo into the mix when he didn't need to. And had he not screwed around with those two, it would have been way easier to add Livingston as soon as he was available for game one. And resigning Mason was a no brainer. He wanted to be here. He was even talked about as a future front office person. How do you blow something that simple.

Now, by the time this plays out, we will now have.

Wall/Livingston/Price
Crawford/Beal/Martin/Price
Trevor A//Webster/Singleton

So we have Price and Martin instead of Mason. Not a huge difference in the end, but how things played out game by game with price and the PG battle over preseason has lead to a terrible start to the year. In my view it has been wasted time and loses. Maybe it works out for them in the longer term picture. To do that Martin has to prove to be better then Mason. If so, they would have added a 26 year old 6-1 SG with some handles and kept a 6-7 3 pt shooter who might have a role longer term.

The smarter safer move would have been to keep Mason and use Webster at SG when needed. That is what I called for.

We could have started the year with

Crawford/Livingston/Mack
Beal/Webster/Mason - actually, I might of even started Webster or Mason depending on the preseason.
Trevor A/Singleton//Webster

That turned into

Wall/Livingston/Mack
Crawford/Beal/Mason/Webster
Trevor A//Webster/Singleton

Its the little things that make all the difference.

Once Wall returns and we end up at the follow, they will be fine, but they will have wasted another year getting there.

Wall/Livingston/Price
Crawford/Beal/Martin/Price
Trevor A//Webster/Singleton

Price is going to end up the 3rd PG and the 3rd or 4th SG. Why are they wasting so much time playing him in preseason and to start the year ? Things are going to look better. They did address there back up PG issue and they did add a young SG to replace Nick. They also upgraded at SF. They do have a better roster. This was just a ass backward way to get there.
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Post#453 Re: Jordan Crawford
Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:49 pm by hands11

Nivek wrote:
AFM wrote:I'll leave it to Nivek to confirm this statistically, but just from the eye test, Crawford's decision making looks much improved. No more dribbling around for a half hour and then launching a contested fadeaway. I've actually become a fan of his this year


I see very little so far this season to indicate statistically or from just watching to suggest Crawford's decision-making has changed at all. His shooting percentages are about the same, his turnovers are up, his usage rate is about the same, his offensive rating is even worse. His rebounding is MUCH better and his assists are up, but I doubt either number will persist.

More subjectively -- during one of his better shooting games this season, I commented on Twitter that his shot selection seemed the same as it did in previous years (ridiculously long 3s, etc.), but that some of those bad shots were going in. I predicted that those bad shots would stop going in, which is what I think we're seeing.

It's still early in the season, of course, but Crawford looks to me like he's about the same as he's been in previous seasons. Only big differences are rebounds and assists (positive) and turnovers (negative).


When is the last time you saw an eye doctor :wink:
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Post#454 Re: Jordan Crawford
Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:57 pm by payitforward

hands11 wrote:
Nivek wrote:
AFM wrote:I'll leave it to Nivek to confirm this statistically, but just from the eye test, Crawford's decision making looks much improved. No more dribbling around for a half hour and then launching a contested fadeaway. I've actually become a fan of his this year


I see very little so far this season to indicate statistically or from just watching to suggest Crawford's decision-making has changed at all. His shooting percentages are about the same, his turnovers are up, his usage rate is about the same, his offensive rating is even worse. His rebounding is MUCH better and his assists are up, but I doubt either number will persist.

More subjectively -- during one of his better shooting games this season, I commented on Twitter that his shot selection seemed the same as it did in previous years (ridiculously long 3s, etc.), but that some of those bad shots were going in. I predicted that those bad shots would stop going in, which is what I think we're seeing.

It's still early in the season, of course, but Crawford looks to me like he's about the same as he's been in previous seasons. Only big differences are rebounds and assists (positive) and turnovers (negative).


When is the last time you saw an eye doctor :wink:

Without any question in his first 7 games, 152 minutes, Jordan Crawford improved -- but back a few days before that, when Nivek posted, that wasn't the case. When you have this small a sample, numbers can change fast.

All the same, it's a good idea to give credit where it's due, not to mention that there is so little opportunity to hand out praise this season that we shouldn't let a genuine opportunity pass us by! So... in the first 7 games as against his whole last year, Crawford's 2pt FG% was up from 45.1% to 48.6%. His 3pt% was up from 28.9% to 35.7%. He was getting to the line a little more, but his FT% was way down. Still, because of his better shooting and increased number of 3pt attempts over 2pt attempts, his TS% was up from 48 to 53% -- that's a big difference.

Crawford's rebounding was also way up -- from 3.8 per 40 minutes to 7.1, which is great. Yet, some of this improvement was nullified by an increase in turnovers and a decrease in steals (both per 40minutes). His assists/40min were also up -- from 4.3 to 6.3.

The result of all this was that after 7 games his WS40 skyrocketed.

Then he played 35 minutes vs. Utah (wch added @ 23% to the sample size!). He went 6-15 on 2pt shots, so that jump in 2pt shooting % is now 1% rather than 3.5%. He got only 1 rebound, so the improvement in rebounding over last year has narrowed. His WS40 went down a point.

His WS40 after 7 games put him in the top 35% of SGs playing 20+ minutes/game. His 8th game brought him back down to average. Of course, average is way way way better than he was last year, when his WS40 was 5th worst in the league among the same group of SGs playing 20+ minutes/game.

Where he'll be after 9 or 10 or 20 or 60 games, no one knows. So far, he's better than he was. We're still 0-8, and he's still not a player who's contributing to our being a good team (average players make you an average team).
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Post#455 Re: Jordan Crawford
Wed Dec 5, 2012 7:27 pm by hands11

Bump. Merge. We already started that debate here with numbers.
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