Our Projected Depth Chart

[crackhed]

PG: Wall/Mack
SG: Young/Crawford/Evans
SF: Lewis/Vesely/Singleton
PF: Blatche/Booker
C: McGee/Seraphin/Hamady

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

One of Vesely, Singleton or Booker is going to be squeezed from the rotation. The only way to avoid this is if Blatche bulks up enough to take Seraphin's minutes at backup center. That would free up more forward minutes for Booker and Vesely while providing some offensive skills at center to make up for the lack of skills at forward.

Flip Saunders will end up squeezing Javale McGee out of the lineup in favor of still huge minutes for Andray Blatche. Andray can play C well in certain matchups but not well at all in others.

I don't want to see it, personally.

Your in mid-season form already bro!

Yep, Dat. I feel like I better save some of this for the real season.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Im really scared that Jon wall has improved enough to take us to the playoffs as an 8 seed. We need to lose as much as possible this season

I would be ecstatic with an 8th seed from this team, Jay81.

To make the playoffs, it will take around 32 wins or more in this 66 game season. That would be real progress. You have to go through mediocre on the way to good. This team is young. That many wins would indicate EG drafted/acquired the right group of guys and Flip coached them decently enough that they finished some games.

I would GLADLY see a playoff team because you just cannot count on drafting Anthony Davis, even if you're a lotto team.

[doclinkin]

I expect we'll see
Guards: JWall and Nick (retained) to start the season.
+Crawford as the first guard off the bench at either position.

Forwards: Dray Blatche as the mid-post screening/passing forward. Shard as the outside threat. So far both have proven to be injury risk which suggest there may be minutes available for stretches.

+ Booker has earned Flip's respect as a tough minded player and reliable late-game sub. He sets screens, does dirty work, Flip liked pairing him with KSera for a thug-nasty change of pace.

+ If C1ngleton's summer of jumpshooting drills has shown in game effect, then we'll likely see him earn time before Vesely. He seems like the type of serious-minded player to become a coach's pet.

+ But Vesely's alley-oop threat will make him a favorite target of John Wall, so if the adjustment period isn't too difficult and he is able to retain his confidence then he'll be a factor in the run run run threat that.

Center: McGee by default. There's no veteran to steal his minutes. Flip will get frustrated now and again by his stubborn and resolute resistance to common sense and need to showcase his 'evolutionary' skillz, especially in a contract year. But nobody else on the team can take the job from him. That said, silly fouls and early substitutions have been the pattern for Pierre, so minutes will be available. I expect the addition size, experience, and man-weight will help keep McGee properly grounded, less of an airborne defender. But I saw him playing that same perimeter center again in footage from the HAX Nike Real Run and other LA summer pick-up footage. Reinforcing bad habits. So.

+ Blatche will be the primary back-up again, much to his disdain. With Booker/C1ngleton/Vesely slotted next to him. I can see good synergy here, especially once Blatche discovers JanVes as a target for the same alley oop assist. There's enough length in c1ngleton and Vesely and smarts/athletix/toughness with Booker included that defense may be improved with this pairing. McGee may find himself benched for longer minutes than expected.

+ Having watched him in a summer of Eurogames KSera has good positional instincts, if subpar rebounding. He knows how to get in front of attackers, and can be intimidating. He's never interested in rebounding on the defensive end, has no real sense of how to box out and claim space once the ball goes up on this end. I like the flashes of offensive aptitude, and the coaching staff knows how to drill him in a few useful offensive tools. Too much complexity in the offensive scheme though renders him inert out there, and 'too much complexity' is Flip's metier.

+ Reports suggested Hamady put in significant work on his body this summer transforming bad weight into grown man muscle. With no steady games though I don't know if this can translate into play time. One thing you know: his attitude will always earn him an opportunity at some point.

[Ruzious]

I don't expect Lewis will be on the roster. Even if there is no amnesty, I'd think they'd come to some agreement with Lewis. They did, afterall, draft 2 small forwards on the first round. I think they will re-sign Nick Young. They need his shooting stroke and scoring ability. Look at the roster - nobody but him can shoot from the outside. They could look elsewhere, but there aren't a lot of options that make sense and are realistic. They do have to field a team this season. But have no fear - even with Nick, they're an almost sure bottom 5 team this season.

[doclinkin]

I don't expect Lewis will be on the roster. Even if there is no amnesty, I'd think they'd come to some agreement with Lewis. They did, afterall, draft 2 small forwards on the first round.

You're missing the fact that in the new CBA there is a minimum salary floor of 80% of cap (climbing to 90%). Basically for the increased revenue-sharing to work, you can't have freeloading teams failing to compete in the market and simply swimming in the wake of and feeding off the scraps of the heavy spenders, cashing the refund checks. (Granted, Donald Sterling will try though...).

We're already $2.1 million under the salary floor, even with the qualifying offer to scrub SFs like Jeffers and his ruptured ACL and Larry Owens (an additional 2.1 million combined if we cut them). With Shard cut we would have to find a way to add $24 million dollars in salary just to squeak over the minimum salary line. How else can you add $24 million for one year?

Fact is Shard's huge amnestyable contract may actually be a massive asset in trade. Orlando may amnesty Gilbert Arenas, but with some gymnastics you could make a case for a three-way deal that clears space for us to land a re-signed Dwight Howard, while we ship Shard to a third team who can amnesty him to clear their own luxtax hassles in exchange for some of their picks and assets (and ours) going to Orlando. Hell we could even offer to pay the 66 game salary as a sweetener.

Risk is we'd have to keep him. But his salary next year is only guaranteed for half the cost (at 11 million) while the minimum floor climbs to 90% of cap. And I don't know if the one-time amnesty expires after this year or if you can keep it, or trade it, but either way I see no way we'd use it in a year when we have to actually spend money to swim to the surface. His semi-expiring cap hold is exactly what we need most.

==EDIT: Okay, the amnesty turns out to be a once-yearly thing for every team. Less of a precious asset. Still useful.

Each team permitted to waive 1 player prior to any season of the CBA (only for contracts in place at the inception of the CBA) and have 100% of the player's salary removed from team salary for Cap and Tax purposes.

[doclinkin]

Considering that the tax hit for teams can be as much as $4.25 for every dollar over the cap (for consistent over-spenders) there will be serious incentive for the big spenders to drop back in line. Granted that takes three years before it kicks in, but still. By Year three the ability to amnesty $20 million in a year could save that team $65 million dollars in tax payout. Some legacy expiring dinosaur-contracts will look even better by then.

[Ruzious]

Doc, unless the agreement was written by idiots, I can't imagine they'd allow amnesty for players traded after the new CBA goes into affect. And if the Wiz do buy out Lewis, I assume it's more than likely that what they do buy him out for will count towards their cap. So, if I missed anything - which is certainly possible - I'm still missing it.

Edit - Upon further reflection... I suppose there could be a strategical reason to keep Lewis. Next year, they might want to (let's hope) make a big splash in free agency. If they buy out Lewis now, a portion of that buyout will count against next year's cap. But if they wait till next offseason and use the amnesty thingy then, they could probably increase their cap room.

[nate33]

Ruzious, I agree with you that it's likely that there is a prohibition against amnestying players acquired by trade. However, everything I've read says that amnestied players do NOT count against the cap whatsoever.

[Ruzious]

Ruzious, I agree with you that it's likely that there is a prohibition against amnestying players acquired by trade. However, everything I've read says that amnestied players do NOT count against the cap whatsoever.

That's the thing - you're thinking just in terms of using the amnesty. You can still buy out a player without using amnesty. Amnesty is just thinking in terms of cap room and its affects. Saving actual cashflow and doing what's right for the roster are other considerations.

[closg00]

According to Mike Lee, we are looking to sign a vet PG......why draft Mack then?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... tml?sub=AR

[fishercob]

According to Mike Lee, we are looking to sign a vet PG......why draft Mack then?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... tml?sub=AR

Mack's not a veteran and may not be ready to contribute like one. The loss of the offseason will be hardest on rookies and lengthen their adjustment period.

[MJG]

According to Mike Lee, we are looking to sign a vet PG......why draft Mack then?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... tml?sub=AR

Mack was a second rounder in a weak draft. You really shouldn't have those types of guys as Plan A in any of your regular rotation spots.

[nate33]

According to Mike Lee, we are looking to sign a vet PG......why draft Mack then?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... tml?sub=AR

One should expect 2nd round picks to be scrubs who never amount to anything. Finding regular rotation players in the 2nd round is the exception, not the rule.

[penbeast0]

a few things:

(a) Lewis probably wont be amnestied. With all the rookie contracts, they need a money sponge and that's Rashard.

(b) Vesely was the 36 pick but in a very very weak draft -- before everyone dropped out, he was projected to be around seraphin's level and will probably be a garbage time player in a full rotation though he'll get chances to show something. i can't see him starting with blatche with that weak rebounding he showed in europeague though.

(c) Mack and singleton are very iffy for minutes too. Singleton dropped for a reason,he doesn't have an offensive game -- think james singleton who was here before or Dom Mcguire -- he might get a starting job if injuries happen but if not, probably won't get real minutes as the team is looking to develop the "higher potential" guys.

(d) Flip likes booker for a good resaon; he's the ony guy we've drafted recently that came ready to play. Yes, he has limits to his game but he is a solid rotation guy for this team.

[no D in Hibachi]

Speaking of vet free agent PGs (and my least favorite former wiz of all time), earl boykins is available.

My money is on bassy telfair. He'd be a good fit as he can run a team and create his own offense in a pinch

[nate33]

One of Vesely, Singleton or Booker is going to be squeezed from the rotation. The only way to avoid this is if Blatche bulks up enough to take Seraphin's minutes at backup center. That would free up more forward minutes for Booker and Vesely while providing some offensive skills at center to make up for the lack of skills at forward.

Flip Saunders will end up squeezing Javale McGee out of the lineup in favor of still huge minutes for Andray Blatche. Andray can play C well in certain matchups but not well at all in others.

I don't want to see it, personally.

This again.

Among the league's centers, McGee was tied for 8th in the league in minutes played per game. And all the ones ahead of him were clearly better players (with the possible exception of Lopez). I just don't see how you can argue that Flip is prone to screwing McGee out of playing time.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate33, I didn't like the minutes Blatche played or the shots he took last season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2011.html

Blatche (only) averaged 33.6 minutes per game. McGee averaged 27.8 minutes. That may seem like not too big of a deal. Why did Blatche play that many minutes and take that many shots when he was largely ineffective?

On b-r, Per 36 Minutes, sort by descending FGA on the link. Who took the most shots by frequency? Jamal Crawford was first at 17.6, Blatche fourth at 15.9, McGee was sixteenth at 9.9, and Booker seventeenth at 8.6. On advanced,sort by descending eFG on the link. McGee finished third, Booker fourth, while Blatche was fifteenth, and Crawford nineteenth. On sortable WS/48, Booker finished first, McGee second, while Blatche was eleventh, and Crawford was nineteenth.

Who took the most shots despite being among the least effective shooters? How many minutes per game did they play? Does Win Score justify their minutes played? Stats might not tell the whole story but I infer a great deal about why the Wizards struggled mightily from those stats.

I will agree to disagree with you on Flip nate.

[doclinkin]

Doc, unless the agreement was written by idiots, I can't imagine they'd allow amnesty for players traded after the new CBA goes into affect. And if the Wiz do buy out Lewis, I assume it's more than likely that what they do buy him out for will count towards their cap. So, if I missed anything - which is certainly possible - I'm still missing it.

Edit - Upon further reflection... I suppose there could be a strategical reason to keep Lewis. Next year, they might want to (let's hope) make a big splash in free agency. If they buy out Lewis now, a portion of that buyout will count against next year's cap. But if they wait till next offseason and use the amnesty thingy then, they could probably increase their cap room.

Nope:

14. Amnesty

Each team permitted to waive 1 player prior to any season of the CBA
(only for contracts in place at the inception of the CBA) and have 100% of
the player’s salary removed from team salary for Cap and Tax purposes.

Salary of amnestied players included for purposes of calculating players’
agreed-upon share of BRI.

So far no limiter on post-trade amnesties. So long as the contract wasn't written after the new CBA. Truth is I can't see why they would limit it. The increases in lux tax are pretty significant, teams will be trying to burn cap overage anyway they can. If another team can help them out, great.

[DCZards]

Ccj, guards are almost always going to be less efficient shooters than big men, if only because they're often shooting from the perimeter as opposed to close to the basket like big men. I have no problem with McGee taking more shots, as long as they're good shots and not the out of control, too far from the basket, rushed shots he too often takes.