by fishercob on Tue May 01, 2012 1:58 pm
Update on my post from last week with final draft standings.
1. Charlotte (39.3% chance of picking 2 or 3): Just drafted Kemba. Recently drafted Gerald Henderson. Gaping hole at SF and PF. Very likely to take either Robinson or MKG over Beal. However someone recently pointed out (verbal?) that they are so bad that they should just go BPA. So I suppose they taking Beal is possible. Unlikely IMHO.
3. Cleveland (33.6% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd : Most credible threat to move up and pick Beal. They have nothing on the wings, like us. Their shooting need isn't quite as dire, so they could conceivably prefer MKG. If he's off the board, they definitely take Beal over T-Rob (with Thompson and Varajeo in the fold). The hope is that they stay behind or that they prefer MKG to BB.
4. New Orleans:(33.6% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd with their own pick, 2.9% with the Minnesota pick) Gordon is their best player. Very likely to take Robinson or MKG over Beal.
5. Sacramento: Just drafted Jimmer and Tyreke Evans. Isaiah Thomas might be better than both. Just signed Marcus Thornton. Not taking a SG.
6. Portland (20.7% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd between their two picks): Moderate threat to take Beal. They are not completely bare at SG -- have Wes Matthews and Elliot Williams and potentially Crawford if he doesn't opt out. But Beal is a likely upgrade over those guys and they could be set at forward with Batum and Aldridge. I could see them gambling on Drummond or takign RObinson and moving LMA to center. But Beal has to be considered a possibility.
7. Golden State (10.7% chance of 2nd or 3rd): This is the Utah pick. Utah cannot move up into the top 3 because GS would then keep the pick. They just traded Ellis so they could play Klay Thompson. I think they'd be much more likely to take MKG (huge hole at SF) or Robinson (could play with either Lee or Bogut and help limit Bogut's minutes). They also have Richard Jefferson and Dorrell Wright. I don't think addressing shooting is their top priority.
8. Toronto (7.2% chance of picking 2nd or 3rd): Badly need shooting. But also have Derozan at SG and desperately need SF and rebounding help. I'd expect Robinson or MKG over Beal.
9. Detroit (4.4% chance at 2 or 3): Need frontcourt help badly. Have Gordon, Stuckey, Knight, in the backcourt. Prince is signed long term at SF. I think they'd go Robinson if he's there. If not, and they;re choosing between MKG and Beal, i think they go MKG. Could roll the dice on Drummond too,
12, Milwaukee: Just traded for Monta Ellis. Not taking Beal.
13. Phoenix: (1.6% chance of 2nd or 3rd) Badly need a young shooting guard. Could take Beal, though I could reasonably see them taking RObinson.
14. Houston (1.3% chance of 2nd or 3rd): Martin has only one year left on his deal, so Beal could be an option. But they also have Courtney Lee and really need an infusion of young talent up front.
So i think our scenarios of not getting Davis or Beal are limited to:
--Cleveland jumping ahead of us choosing Beal over MKG
--Portland jumping us and Robinson is already off the board, or them loving BB
--Toronto moving up and preffering Beal to Robinson and MKG
--Houston or Phoenix getting insanely lucky
Given everything above I still really like the chances of us getting either Davis or Beal. While MKG's current fit given his shortcomings are of some concern, he would still be a much better consolation prize than what WizFans have had to accept in the past. Same with Robinson. If we're sitting at 5th and those four guys are all gone, it's an official disaster -- a "Blame Ji" situation. That said, be optimistic! The odds are in our favor. Just root for MKG, Robinson, Drummond and Barnes to all measure well at the combine and look great in workouts.
"Some people have a way with words....some people....not have way."
— Steve Martin
NOH picked 2nd and took T-Rob. Weird. I would say they would take MKG even thought they have Ariza, he can be traded. Maybe even swing for the fences with Drummond. We probably actually get Beal or MKG in this scenario.
