2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[TheKingOfVa360]

Yeah, basketball is a combination of athletic skill and basketball-specific coordination (as opposed to say, hitting a ball with a bat coordination).

It's good to have apples to apples height and reach and vertical reach measurements. Precisely the reason this thread is so long is we want to know if it's true that Beal is short -- he isn't. We also want to know if his leaping ability can make up for him being a little short -- looks like it can.

It's good to know if someone with a good reputation for defense has good lateral quickness -- that means success at the college level is likely to translate to the pros.

Not particularly interested in Sullinger's lane agility test - that's not his game, although it confirms that he will struggle on defense at the pro level.

This data can answer some specific questions about players for us, the fans. Pro folks already can tell that Beal's leaping ability makes up for any lack of height, and etc.

It almost feels like one guy made an issue of Beal's height and then everyone else decided to join the party. Was Gilbert Arenas the ideal size of a SG? I don't think so. With that being said, Beal > Arenas. I hope the Wizards can get him.

Arenas was a PG and I doubt Beal will ever have an season or two where he averages over 28 ppg. But Beal is the pick, let's stop over thinking. Drummond has a high bust potential and MKG is a bad fit because of his lack of shooting

[jivelikenice]

Yeah, basketball is a combination of athletic skill and basketball-specific coordination (as opposed to say, hitting a ball with a bat coordination).

It's good to have apples to apples height and reach and vertical reach measurements. Precisely the reason this thread is so long is we want to know if it's true that Beal is short -- he isn't. We also want to know if his leaping ability can make up for him being a little short -- looks like it can.

It's good to know if someone with a good reputation for defense has good lateral quickness -- that means success at the college level is likely to translate to the pros.

Not particularly interested in Sullinger's lane agility test - that's not his game, although it confirms that he will struggle on defense at the pro level.

This data can answer some specific questions about players for us, the fans. Pro folks already can tell that Beal's leaping ability makes up for any lack of height, and etc.

It almost feels like one guy made an issue of Beal's height and then everyone else decided to join the party. Was Gilbert Arenas the ideal size of a SG? I don't think so. With that being said, Beal > Arenas. I hope the Wizards can get him.

Arenas was a PG and I doubt Beal will ever have an season or two where he averages over 28 ppg. But Beal is the pick, let's stop over thinking. Drummond has a high bust potential and MKG is a bad fit because of his lack of shooting

I agree that the Arenas comp is way off. Beal is not a pg and doesn't have Gil's ability to get to the basket and create his own shot. You don't have Robinson in the equation?

[fishercob]

This came up in a discussion between myself and Wizardynasty on the trade thread, but I thought it was worth repeating here.

I've put the measurements onto a spreadsheet and weeded out all of the guys who weren't drafted. That leaves me with a list of roughly 500 guys over the past decade with full measurements data, plus another 250 or so guys from the past two decades with partial data.

I was looking at some of the athletic testing results and noticed some odd groupings based on the year the tests were made. Specifically, 2008 was an extremely odd year with the full court sprint. Of 492 total players who participated in the full court sprint, 3 of the top 4 game from the 2008 class, as well as the 8th (Sonny Weems, Joe Alexander, Eric Gordon and Derrick Rose). That doesn't seem statistically likely. Likewise, only two players from the 2012 (Denmon and Barnes) scored in the top 100 (they ranked 76th and 88th respectively). That also doesn't seem likely.

The same thing happens in the lane agility. Out of 489 players, the 1st, 2nd, 7th and 11th rankings all came out of the 2011 class. Meanwhile, the 2010 class is suspiciously underrepresented, with John Wall showing up as the first name on the list, ranking 71st. Call me crazy, but my guess is that John Wall's lane agility is better than Carlos Boozer's.

My guess is that there are significant deviations in testing procedure each year, that makes some of these year-to-year comparisons less than perfect. This year, we are seeing it in suspiciously low standing reaches

All the more reason to make no sweeping conclusions off any of the data.

[WizarDynasty]

there is only one player outside of AD that makes us contender if he is groomed
correctly and its not Beal.
For us to worry to much about what wall thinks when he isn't a difference maker on offense and an inefficient scorer and playmaker is absurd. Wall is not a dominant offensive player and we don't have one.
Our recent acquisition of Nene and his years of training in a winning culture and high basketball IQ is the only trump card we have in terms of transforming any player in this draft into not just an allstar but superstar. Nene is the one asset that the wizards have that nearly no early lotto team has and he completely allow us to evaluate players differently. To repeat, MKG and BEAL, even if they reach the highest possible ceilinig will not make us a deep playoff team and we aren't getting a player in free agency that will make us a contender. Wake up people. If you are aiming to be the philadelphia 76ers or atlanta hawks...then getting "safe" low ceiling guys who are average nba starters is your cup of Tea but most older posters here were disappointed with getting destroyed in round two by the cavaliers at the wizard peak and learned valuable lessons when it comes to team building. Superstar are the only thing that matter in the playoffs and if you built your team incorrectly, you will suffer.

[DaRealHibachi]

there is only one player outside of AD that makes us contender if he is groomed
correctly and its not Beal.
For us to worry to much about what wall thinks when he isn't a difference maker on offense and an inefficient scorer and playmaker is absurd. Wall is not a dominant offensive player and we don't have one.
Our recent acquisition of Nene and his years of training in a winning culture and high basketball IQ is the only trump card we have in terms of transforming any player in this draft into not just an allstar but superstar. Nene is the one asset that the wizards have that nearly no early lotto team has and he completely allow us to evaluate players differently. To repeat, MKG and BEAL, even if they reach the highest possible ceilinig will not make us a deep playoff team and we aren't getting a player in free agency that will make us a contender. Wake up people. If you are aiming to be the philadelphia 76ers or atlanta hawks...then getting "safe" low ceiling guys who are average nba starters is your cup of Tea but most older posters here were disappointed with getting destroyed in round two by the cavaliers at the wizard peak and learned valuable lessons when it comes to team building. Superstar are the only thing that matter in the playoffs and if you built your team incorrectly, you will suffer.

Funny how I read through this whole post twice and still haven't figured out who that player in the first sentence is...

[nate33]

He likes Drummond and Barnes. WizD always puts measurements, particularly standing reach and lane agility, above all else. It doesn't matter if they suck in college, if they're tall and quick, they're future superstars.

[TheKingOfVa360]

[quote="Zonkerbl"]Yeah, basketball is a combination of athletic skill and basketball-specific coordination (as opposed to say, hitting a ball with a bat coordination).

It's good to have apples to apples height and reach and vertical reach measurements. Precisely the reason this thread is so long is we want to know if it's true that Beal is short -- he isn't. We also want to know if his leaping ability can make up for him being a little short -- looks like it can.

It's good to know if someone with a good reputation for defense has good lateral quickness -- that means success at the college level is likely to translate to the pros.

Not particularly interested in Sullinger's lane agility test - that's not his game, although it confirms that he will struggle on defense at the pro level.

This data can answer some specific questions about players for us, the fans. Pro folks already can tell that Beal's leaping ability makes up for any lack of height, and etc.

It almost feels like one guy made an issue of Beal's height and then everyone else decided to join the party. Was Gilbert Arenas the ideal size of a SG? I don't think so. With that being said, Beal > Arenas. I hope the Wizards can get him.

Arenas was a PG and I doubt Beal will ever have an season or two where he averages over 28 ppg. But Beal is the pick, let's stop over thinking. Drummond has a high bust potential and MKG is a bad fit because of his lack of shooting

I agree that the Arenas comp is way off. Beal is not a pg and doesn't have Gil's ability to get to the basket and create his own shot. You don't have Robinson in the equation?[/quote]


I really like T Rob but feel we already have a lot of pf/c talent with Nene, Serph, Booker, and Vesley. We need a young sg or sf bad. Plus if we get Beal then Crawford has to come off the bench which is addition by subtraction. Our biggest weakness is outside shooting and that's Beals biggest strength. It's a perfect match.

[TheKingOfVa360]

there is only one player outside of AD that makes us contender if he is groomed
correctly and its not Beal.
For us to worry to much about what wall thinks when he isn't a difference maker on offense and an inefficient scorer and playmaker is absurd. Wall is not a dominant offensive player and we don't have one.
Our recent acquisition of Nene and his years of training in a winning culture and high basketball IQ is the only trump card we have in terms of transforming any player in this draft into not just an allstar but superstar. Nene is the one asset that the wizards have that nearly no early lotto team has and he completely allow us to evaluate players differently. To repeat, MKG and BEAL, even if they reach the highest possible ceilinig will not make us a deep playoff team and we aren't getting a player in free agency that will make us a contender. Wake up people. If you are aiming to be the philadelphia 76ers or atlanta hawks...then getting "safe" low ceiling guys who are average nba starters is your cup of Tea but most older posters here were disappointed with getting destroyed in round two by the cavaliers at the wizard peak and learned valuable lessons when it comes to team building. Superstar are the only thing that matter in the playoffs and if you built your team incorrectly, you will suffer.

The Wiz never played the Cavs in the 2nd round. We got swept by the Heat. Any Wizard fan should know that

[WizarDynasty]

He likes Drummond and Barnes. WizD always puts measurements, particularly standing reach and lane agility, above all else. It doesn't matter if they suck in college, if they're tall and quick, they're future superstars.

dont forget above average bulk....and if i see high level potential in highschool, i usually can project what they will be even after a mediocre first year of college. so again, 2AD's, 1 HB...and the devastating royce white is all you guys need to remember.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

Yeah, basketball is a combination of athletic skill and basketball-specific coordination (as opposed to say, hitting a ball with a bat coordination).

It's good to have apples to apples height and reach and vertical reach measurements. Precisely the reason this thread is so long is we want to know if it's true that Beal is short -- he isn't. We also want to know if his leaping ability can make up for him being a little short -- looks like it can.

It's good to know if someone with a good reputation for defense has good lateral quickness -- that means success at the college level is likely to translate to the pros.

Not particularly interested in Sullinger's lane agility test - that's not his game, although it confirms that he will struggle on defense at the pro level.

This data can answer some specific questions about players for us, the fans. Pro folks already can tell that Beal's leaping ability makes up for any lack of height, and etc.

It almost feels like one guy made an issue of Beal's height and then everyone else decided to join the party. Was Gilbert Arenas the ideal size of a SG? I don't think so. With that being said, Beal > Arenas. I hope the Wizards can get him.

Arenas was a PG and I doubt Beal will ever have an season or two where he averages over 28 ppg. But Beal is the pick, let's stop over thinking. Drummond has a high bust potential and MKG is a bad fit because of his lack of shooting

On paper he was a PG. He had no problem scoring on anyone whether it was another PG guarding him or a SG; he was the last really good scorer, who was heavily relied on for points by the WIzards in recent memory that's why I mention Beal, size and Arenas. When I say Beal will prove to be better than Arenas, I mean for the starting unit as a whole not necessaarily points averaged, though I do believe he will show an ability to score as easily though perhaps not in the same manner that Arenas did. Beal will be just as important but will have a bigger impact on the team than Arenas did if he's drafted by Washington.

[Jay81]

He likes Drummond and Barnes. WizD always puts measurements, particularly standing reach and lane agility, above all else. It doesn't matter if they suck in college, if they're tall and quick, they're future superstars.

barnes did not suck in college. He wasnt as great as the hype

[Jay81]

i would trade booker and our 1st next year for a the 5th pick. I heard Sacremento has been offered Noah for the 5th pick and Tyreke Evans

[nate33]

and the devastating royce white is all you guys need to remember.

I'm curious what it is you like so much about Royce White. He doesn't seem to fit your idea of a quality talent. He's not that tall, he has a poor standing reach of 8'-8.5", and he didn't participate in the athleticism drills. All we know is that he is heavy at 261. In general, short, heavy PF's do not succeed. Here is a list of guys drafted in the past decade who weighed more than 255 at the combine while measuring less than 9-0" on standing reach:

Code: Select all

Name              Weight   Reach 
Mike Sweetney     262      8'11.5"
Derrick Caracter  280      8'11.25
Jason Maxiell     258      8'11" 
Joey Dorsey       265      8'11" 
Wayne Simien      256      8'11" 
Dejuan Blair      277      8'10.5"
Brandon Hunter    266      8'9.5"
James Johnson     257      8'9.5"
Paul Millsap      258      8'9.5"
Jared Sullinger   268      8'9.5"
Sean May          259      8'9"   
Royce White       261      8'8.5"
Shelden Williams  258      8'8"   
Craig Smith       259      8'7.5"

Only one of these guys panned out as a starting-caliber player, Millsap.

[dobrojim]

PER has one other fault that damns it for me: the way it values scoring, if a player shoots over 40% then the more shots he takes the higher his PER. Hence it inflates scores for guys who shoot a lot.

WS40 is a better overall compilation of box score stats. Again, however, it doesn't adjust for position, so it's only useful to compare guys at a single spot.

PER is actually worse than that for how it values shooting. I forget the number right now, but a player can improve his PER by shooting more frequently if his percentage is something around 27-28%. Wins Produced is an improvement (when it comes to how it handles efficiency), but goes too far the other way -- a player contributes in WP with his shooting only when he's better than 50%. My system (naturally) gets it right -- the line is about 41-42%. That is to say, a player helps his team (on average) when he shoots better than 41-42% (it fluctuates a bit from year to year, but that's where it is nowadays). I posted the math somewhere on the boards, but my search-fu is not strong. Maybe one of the archivists can dig it up.

shouldn't the ideal system add value to a player's stat for shooting better
than some well considered average and detract for shooting worse? I would
think that a 'well considered' stat might be something like team or league average
FG% (or eFG%/TS% which take FTs produced into account?).

[nate33]

i would trade booker and our 1st next year for a the 5th pick. I heard Sacremento has been offered Noah for the 5th pick and Tyreke Evans

Sacramento should take that and run. Noah would be a nice complement to Cousins, both on the floor and in the locker room.