Official Trade Thread XX (6/22/12 - 12/13/12)

[payitforward]

1) I agree that signing Webster has been Grunfeld's best move from this past offseason.

2) How frigging sad is it that Ernie's "best move" is signing Webster -- a guy who has managed to be a bit better than average?

Very sad. And as you know, I think Ernie is a horrendous GM. That said, in assessing a deal like this one, you do have to measure how well a player performs against his cost. Martell is better than average, but he makes a very low salary for an NBA player.

Now... I don't understand why we didn't sign him w/ a team option for year 2. I don't understand why GMs don't do every similar signing (even someone like Price) that way. Even if you have to pay a little more for the current year. Putting yourself in a positon where you can be benefited by chance surprises is a key skill. Ernie doesn't have that skill. I.e. the blind squirrel found a nut -- good for him.

[nate33]

"Sacto has Thompson and Robinson, so I'm not sure they want/need Booker."

I threw Booker in as salary filler packaged to a competent player. They can have Crawford or Vesely if they want. The gist of this deal is Cousins for Seraphin. The idea from Sacramento's standpoint is to trade the higher "upside" for the better attitude while keeping a young big who can develop into a starting center. It all depends on how disgruntled Sacremento is with Cousins and what other teams are willing to give in order to acquire a risk like Cousins. We have a bit of an inside track with John Wall.

"Also, does LAC both add a big contract and give up Bledsoe in the same deal?"

If LAC wants to add a top tier center, they have no choice but to take on a big contract. Good centers don't have contracts that will match Bledsoe's. They could send us Caron Butler (and his longer contract) as the filler instead of Odom, but I'm assuming they'd rather part with Odom's absolutely terrible production. The Clippers with Nene would be a legit title contender. (If necessary, we can include an Ariza for Butler swap which would help mitigate the salary issues a bit.)

"And I think Portland would move Matthews and/or Batum before Aldridge."

Maybe so. But they won't be getting two lotto picks in return for Matthews and Batum. Batum probably has negative value at this point. Lot's of Portland fans are starting to post LMA trade suggestions on the Trade Board. My Beal + unprotected 1st proposal has been better received that most other offers.

[MF23]

Seraphin's and Webster's improvements speak highly of Wittman and the staff. When you talk about Seraphin developing you have to take in last season.

[Nivek]

Seraphin's and Webster's improvements speak highly of Wittman and the staff. When you talk about Seraphin developing you have to take in last season.

Do they?

Seraphin had a stretch at the end of last season where he played right about league average. This season, he's he's looked a lot like the guy he was in the early part of last season, which was a lot like the rookie Seraphin. Except that he's rebounding even less, he's committing more turnovers and he's shooting a lot more. He's been terrible this season.

Webster's numbers are very similar to what they were last season in Minnesota, except he's shot better thus far, he's grabbed more defensive boards, and he's committed more turnovers.

For both guys we're still in Small Sample Size Theater so nothing is settled. But I really don't see much of anything from this team thus far that speaks highly of Wittman and the coaching staff.

[Dat2U]

Seraphin + Booker for Cousins

Nene for Eric Bledsoe, Lamar Odom & Ryan Hollins

Beal + Ariza + 2013 unprotected 1st for Lamarcus Aldridge

I'd tweak the offers slightly but I really like where your going.

1.
WAS Trades: Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton & Jordan Crawford
SAC Trades: DeMarcus Cousins & Travis Outlaw
Note: I just think it would take a little more than what you offered to get a deal done. But I think their quickly growing weary of Cousins. This might be the most realistic opportunity out of the 3. It's a risk for us in that DMC doesn't play winning ball yet but pairing him with Wall might be the ideal situation for him.

2.
WAS Trades: Unprotected 2013 1st rd pick, Bradley Beal, Jan Vesely & Emeka Okafor
POR Trades: LaMarcus Aldridge & Wesley Matthews
Note: I didn't see Okafor included in your original deal. I assume he'll have to be included for the deal to work. I also wonder about the idea of grabbing Matthews (who Portland won't mind including) to give us a starting quality defender at SG?

3.
WAS Trades: Nene & Trevor Ariza
LAC Trades: Eric Bledsoe, Caron Butler & Lamar Odom
Note: I included the Ariza for Butler swap to further entice LAC. I just can't see them taking on Nene's salary without some type of additional benefit. Considering how bad Butler has been for them, and the Paul/Ariza connection, this might be the enticement to get a deal done.

New roster:

PF LaMarcus Aldridge / Travis Outlaw
SF Martell Webster / Caron Butler
CE DeMarcus Cousins / Earl Barron
SG Eric Bledsoe / Wesley Matthews
PG John Wall / A.J. Price / Shaun Livingston

After buying out Odom (a given), we'd be left with 12 players. 7 under contract for next season (Wall, Bledsoe, Cousins, Aldridge, Matthews, Butler & Outlaw). I wondering about whether it makes sense to avoid taking on Matthews and retain a decent amount of cap room going into the offseason?

[nate33]

My Portland trade does indeed work with Ariza's smaller "filler" salary because we are under the luxtax and can absorb 150% of the outgoing salary rather than just 125%. I was making an effort to retain Okafor because I wanted to surround Cousins with some good role models and mentors (to teach him how to play, and to be serviceable enough so that we can credibly threaten to bench Cousins if necessary).

You make a fair point that LA may not go for the deal without the Butler/Ariza swap, which can't happen if I sent Ariza to Portland.

I think my plan is preferable for the reasons I outlined, but I'd certainly do it your way if that's what was necessary to make it happen. The bottom line is that a core of Wall, Bledsoe, Aldridge and Cousins is a hell of a lot better than what we have now, and there is plenty of room to grow. Webster would be a perfect fit to round out that starting 5.

[MF23]

Nivek, I really do think they have improved. For Webster I don't have a base for that statement I'm being speculative because I haven't seen him play since he was in Portland. People have said he wasn't very good in Minn and hasn't been consistent his entire career. For Webster I've suggested he'll be good offensive threat playing off of Nene and Wall. I think he has played competently since Nene has comeback though it's a small sample.

As for Seraphin, he can be in your statistic aggregate comparable to early last season but he's not the same player. He was going to be out of the league and now he looks like he's going to be a role player if not even a little better than that.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=cobdacb

The deal would be Ariza+Vesely for MWP+Blake+1st round pick 2013

Vesely with Nash in D'Antoni's system would be dunking machine. Vesely off the Wizards would suddenly show why he went too high in the draft--he's not a stiff at all. For the Wizards, this move is great for Vesely and the Lakers pick should be in the 15-20 range (they are going to lose a lot of games barring a successful, good trade).

With their own pick the Wizards could select Alex Len.

With the Laker pick they receive for JV, they could select C. J. McCollum or Otto Porter or LeBryan Nash.

[Nivek]

Nivek, I really do think they have improved. For Webster I don't have a base for that statement I'm being speculative because I haven't seen him play since he was in Portland. People have said he wasn't very good in Minn and hasn't been consistent his entire career. For Webster I've suggested he'll be good offensive threat playing off of Nene and Wall. I think he has played competently since Nene has comeback though it's a small sample.

Don't get me wrong on Webster. I'm pleased with what he's done. Agreed in one thread or another that he's been their best offseason acquisition. He can shoot (a skill he's always had). We'll see if he can keep it up. His history says no and this year's sample size is still tiny.

As for Seraphin, he can be in your statistic aggregate comparable to early last season but he's not the same player. He was going to be out of the league and now he looks like he's going to be a role player if not even a little better than that.

Depends on what you mean by "looks like." During that run at the end of last season, he looked like an NBA player -- which was colossal improvement for him. That "look" showed up in the numbers -- in my stuff, he rated right about average.

This season, I don't agree he's looked like a good or even decent player. His rebounding is substandard, his turnovers are high and he's missing shots like crazy. That's not good. His moves might looks smoother or something, but a smooth-looking turnover is still a turnover, a pretty move that ends with a missed shot is a missed shot.

Using my rating system, Seraphin rated a 26 as a rookie where 100 = average and 60 = replacement level. Last season, he rated a 102. This season: 32.

I'm not ready to write him off -- last season he was decent. But, he's not performing even at the level of a decent role player. He's been bad so far this year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think Seraphin is trying to score his way into more minutes. I would not write him off.

Okafor displaced him and Kevin Seraphin wants to keeps starting IMO. Thus, he has become a black hole. He is shooting from farther away and shooting much more frequently than last season. He is turning the ball over 75% more and getting to the FT line 67% less. Impatience, hurrying, and worrying about minutes could all contribute. Also, when Seraphin put up those double doubles, both Nene and James Singleton were very reliable midrange scorers.

Seraphin's biggest problem IMO is the roster and a lack of foresight from Ted/EG.

[TGW]

I would trade Crawford and Seraphin for the best player I could immediately.

Not saying they can't play, but we need more foundational TALENT here. These guys are probably bench players on good teams (hell...they're bench players on a horrible team, right now). I'm not sure who we could or should try and get, but I would like a legitimate building block type of player.

[montestewart]

Not saying they can't play, but we need more foundational TALENT here. These guys are probably bench players on good teams (hell...they're bench players on a horrible team, right now). I'm not sure who we could or should try and get, but I would like a legitimate building block type of player.

Agree with that. Nivek (I think it was) posted that depressing chart the other day showing the scores of the Wizards' "young core" in his system. Granted, rookies can make dramatic leaps from their first year, and occasionally players that have been in the league a few years finally "get it" and make dramatic leaps as well, but who truly believes that the future lies primarily in that young core developing among complimentary veterans? That's a really far fetched scenario, all of them making implausibly dramatic leaps to become all-stars, solid starters, or quality rotation players. Or maybe maybe some of Thed (I mean Tem) are just lying, really badly, to try to save face. Those that don't fit into either category, well they've just thrown in the towel, figuring that fighting for 8th seed is a reasonable and noble long-term goal. People that fit into that category might also think that there's no way any kind of quality free agent would ever sign here.

[payitforward]

Webster's numbers are very similar to what they were last season in Minnesota, except he's shot better thus far, he's grabbed more defensive boards, and he's committed more turnovers.

You express this in a way that slights what Martell's done, IMO. A bit worse on turnovers, yes (and a bit better on assists) -- but *a lot* better shooting. eFG% has gone from .49 last year to .56 this year. That is a very big jump. Moreover, he's getting to the line a lot more as well, and making an incredibly high 90+% of them.

The result is that his TS% has gone from .53 to .64 -- and that's off the charts good for a swing player. Martell is #21 in the league in WS40 among 3s who are playing 20+ minutes a game. He's never visited that territory at any previous point in his career.

Yet, you are right that "...we're still in Small Sample Size Theater." Can't conclude anything but lets give the guy his props.[/quote]

[Dat2U]

Toronto is rumored to want Gasol badly, however the Raps may not have enough to get a deal done, so what about the Wiz clearing Nene's risky contract for facilitating the deal?

Wizards Trade: F Nene
Wizards Receive: G Jose Calderon

Raptors Trade: C Andrea Bargnani & G Jose Calderon
Raptors Receive: F Pau Gasol & C Robert Sacre

Lakers Trade: F Pau Gasol & C Robert Sacre
Lakers Receive: F Nene & C Andrea Bargnani

[dangermouse]

Lakers would be all over that like i was on my prom date circa 2000.

Even though we clear Nene, i think i'd want more back. He's been a stabilising force, we shouldnt just give him up for some 'magic beans' called Calderon.

[verbal8]

Lakers would be all over that like i was on my prom date circa 2000.

Even though we clear Nene, i think i'd want more back. He's been a stabilising force, we shouldnt just give him up for some 'magic beans' called Calderon.

I doubt that EG could pull it off, but I would try to get Ed Davis from the Raptors. I would send any one except Wall or Seraphin to make it happen.

[LyricalRico]

^ Agree on not just moving Nene for an expiring. At least not at this point.

[payitforward]

...I would try to get Ed Davis from the Raptors. I would send any one except Wall or Seraphin to make it happen.

Don't know why you wouldn't give Seraphin for Davis. I'd do that in a minute. But, no way Toronto would go for that.

[nuposse04]

...I would try to get Ed Davis from the Raptors. I would send any one except Wall or Seraphin to make it happen.

Don't know why you wouldn't give Seraphin for Davis. I'd do that in a minute. But, no way Toronto would go for that.

Just checked out Davis' numbers, his advance stats look promising in the little time he's had. What type of game does he have? I imagine a 6'10 PF skinny PF with skill might be Vesely's uber potential.

[Dat2U]

Lakers would be all over that like i was on my prom date circa 2000.

Even though we clear Nene, i think i'd want more back. He's been a stabilising force, we shouldnt just give him up for some 'magic beans' called Calderon.

Folks may not have the impetus to make a move like this at the moment, but I wouldn't hestitate.

Nene's value isn't going to get any higher. His healthy isn't going to get any better. He plays well when he does play, but honestly that's far less than half of the time right now. Availability is the biggest part of performance, and Nene fails on that end. I also don't see Nene keeping up this level of performance over the long term.

I'd say trade him now before he becomes untradeable.