Bradley Beal

[tontoz]

Beal remains a TERRIBLE shooter. I'm so sick of watching him brick open looks.

He's the exact opposite of what I expected. I was hoping for a good spot up shooter who would probably be a bit lacking in other aspects of the game. What we've got is a pretty good all around player who defends, hits the glass, passes pretty well, and can get to the rim; but he can't shoot a lick. The guy barely hits the rim sometimes.

I guess the good news is that shooting improves over time to a greater degree than defense, passing and rebounding; so maybe he'll pan out to be okay. But in the meantime, I'm at the point where I cringe every time he takes a perimeter shot.

He is 19 and hasn't even finished his 2nd month in the league. Get a grip.

What?

I'm supposed to ignore the fact that a guy we drafted specifically because he was touted as a shooter, can't shoot? Even at age 19, shooters should be able to shoot when open. For goodness sake, Trevor Booker was a better shooter last year from 10-23 feet than Beal is right now.

I was totally prepared for him to suffer at other things like defense, ball handling, and getting to the rim; but the kid isn't even knocking down open looks. I'll commend him for exceeding my expectations on defense, rebounding and penetrating (ball handling is a bit suspect though).

Stating that he can't shoot is ridiculous after less than two months of play. Using a sample size that small i could say Josh Smith is a good 3 point shooter since he is currently shooting 38%.

Shooting open shots is routine in a pickup game. I used to be lights out at that age. But in an NBA game there is a level of pressure that takes some getting used to. You can't shoot well if you are afraid of missing. I probably would have struggled to make anything if i had been in the NBA at that age.

[Nivek]

Here's a list of some notable 20-years old or younger rookie guards who shot as bad or worse than Beal from 2pt range over the first 22 games of their career:

- Jason Richardson
- Jrue Holiday
- Russell Westbrook
- JR Smith
- Dion Waiters
- Kyle Lowry
- Martell Webster
- Kobe Bryant
- Jamal Crawford

Same group, but worse than Beal from 3pt range:

- Derrick Rose
- Martell Webster
- Jrue Holiday
- OJ Mayo
- Louis Williams
- Eric Bledsoe
- Joe Johnson
- Chris Paul
- Mike Conley
- Russell Westbrook
- Quentin Richardson
- Larry Hughes
- Gilbert Arenas
- Jamal Crawford
- Sergio Rodriguez
- JR Smith

As bad or worse in EFG (to combine the two):

- Webster
- Lowry
- Rondo
- Holiday
- Westbrook
- JR Smith
- Jamal Crawford
- Mo Williams

Worse from FT line (where Beal is quite good):

- Harden
- Kyrie Irving
- Bledsoe
- Rose
- Paul
- Wall
- Westbrook
- Tony Parker
- Kobe
- Lou Williams
- Quentin Richardson
- Jamal Crawford
- Jason Richardson
- Rondo

[fishercob]

I'm really not worried about Beal. He absolutely needs to shoot better, and in time he will. He may never grow into an elite shooter. Even if that's the case, he still does so many other things well that I expect him to an excellent NBA player. His game, stylistically, may resemble Dwyane Wade more than Ray Allen; more Joe Dumars than Reggie Miller.

Remember, he struggled early on transitioning from HS to college too -- and this is a much, much bigger adjustment. I'm sure that with all the losing and turmoil and the offensive load he is being asked to carry that his head is a bit of a mess right now. He's NINE TEEN. As he grows, and adjusts, and gets more comfortable, the ball will start going in more.

Beal's a winner. I value him more than Wall at the moment, TBH.

[tontoz]

Here's a list of some notable 20-years old or younger rookie guards who shot as bad or worse than Beal from 2pt range over the first 22 games of their career:

- Jason Richardson
- Jrue Holiday
- Russell Westbrook
- JR Smith
- Dion Waiters
- Kyle Lowry
- Martell Webster
- Kobe Bryant
- Jamal Crawford

Same group, but worse than Beal from 3pt range:

- Derrick Rose
- Martell Webster
- Jrue Holiday
- OJ Mayo
- Louis Williams
- Eric Bledsoe
- Joe Johnson
- Chris Paul
- Mike Conley
- Russell Westbrook
- Quentin Richardson
- Larry Hughes
- Gilbert Arenas
- Jamal Crawford
- Sergio Rodriguez
- JR Smith

As bad or worse in EFG (to combine the two):

- Webster
- Lowry
- Rondo
- Holiday
- Westbrook
- JR Smith
- Jamal Crawford
- Mo Williams

Worse from FT line (where Beal is quite good):

- Harden
- Kyrie Irving
- Bledsoe
- Rose
- Paul
- Wall
- Westbrook
- Tony Parker
- Kobe
- Lou Williams
- Quentin Richardson
- Jamal Crawford
- Jason Richardson
- Rondo

This is why i wanted him coming off the bench to start the year. I expected him to suck (i was totally in favor of drafting him). He has actually been better than i thought he would be so far.

I will give much more weight to his performance in Feb/March.

[Nivek]

Here's a list of young rookie guards who started a higher proportion of games in the first 22 games of their careers:

- Derrick Rose
- Chris Paul
- Tyreke Evans
- Brandon Jennings
- Mike Bibby
- Andre Iguodala
- Kyrie Irving
- Jonny Flynn
- TJ Ford
- Dion Waiters
- DeMar Derozan
- OJ Mayo (only 4 games, though)
- Jerry Stackhouse (only 2 games)

Same group, but more total minutes through 22 games:

- Rose
- Paul
- Wall
- Evans
- Jennings
- Bibby
- Dajuan Wagner
- Marbury
- Brandon Knight
- Iguodala
- Irving
- Flynn

In the same range in terms of minutes: Tony Parker, Bledsoe, Austin Rivers, Westbrook, Joe Johnson.

[Zonkerbl]

So, what you're saying is, Beal is performing about as well at this stage in his career as a number of all-star or borderline all-star guards?

[nate33]

Here's a list of some notable 20-years old or younger rookie guards who shot as bad or worse than Beal from 2pt range over the first 22 games of their career:

- Jason Richardson
- Jrue Holiday
- Russell Westbrook
- JR Smith
- Dion Waiters
- Kyle Lowry
- Martell Webster
- Kobe Bryant
- Jamal Crawford

Same group, but worse than Beal from 3pt range:

- Derrick Rose
- Martell Webster
- Jrue Holiday
- OJ Mayo
- Louis Williams
- Eric Bledsoe
- Joe Johnson
- Chris Paul
- Mike Conley
- Russell Westbrook
- Quentin Richardson
- Larry Hughes
- Gilbert Arenas
- Jamal Crawford
- Sergio Rodriguez
- JR Smith

As bad or worse in EFG (to combine the two):

- Webster
- Lowry
- Rondo
- Holiday
- Westbrook
- JR Smith
- Jamal Crawford
- Mo Williams

Worse from FT line (where Beal is quite good):

- Harden
- Kyrie Irving
- Bledsoe
- Rose
- Paul
- Wall
- Westbrook
- Tony Parker
- Kobe
- Lou Williams
- Quentin Richardson
- Jamal Crawford
- Jason Richardson
- Rondo

This list doesn't encourage me much. Most of the guys that shot worse than Beal ended up as PG's, and I don't think Beal can make that transition. Of all the guys listed, the only ones who really developed into starting-caliber shooting guards are Kobe, Richardson and Harden; and I guess we should add Mayo to the ranks after this breakout season.

The best hope is that this is still a small sample size problem, but my hopes are dwindling each game. I don't mind that he is having trouble creating space for his shot. I don't mind that he gets a few more shots blocked than the average SG. I agree that those are things that should get better with experience. I mind that he can't hit wide open looks.

O.J. Mayo would be the best-case scenario. And it took him 5 years.

[Nivek]

From the "shot worse" lists, these SG/SF names jump out at me:

- Kobe Bryant
- Joe Johnson
- Jamal Crawford
- JR Smith
- Quentin Richardson
- Jason Richardson
- James Harden

Methinks it's STILL too early to worry about Beal.

[tontoz]

Jamal Crawford is definitely a starting calibur 2 on offense. It's just his total lack of defense/rebounding that make him better suited to a bench role.

Watching him with the hawks was pretty frustrating. He wouldn't even make an attempt to run down loose balls.

Offensively he could be scary sometimes. He is the all time league leader in 4 point plays by a mile. He has more than the Celtics do in their entire history.

[Illuminaire]

We're probably all a bit grumpy over the whole Wall situation, OkaRiza, Ted's love affair with Ernie, and... OK, everything about the entire team.

We just want something truly good to celebrate, a clean and pure source of joy untainted by disappointment and failed expectations.

[nate33]

From the "shot worse" lists, these SG/SF names jump out at me:

- Kobe Bryant
- Joe Johnson
- Jamal Crawford
- JR Smith
- Quentin Richardson
- Jason Richardson
- James Harden

Methinks it's STILL too early to worry about Beal.

Joe Johnson, QRich and JRich are all really big guys though. Their size was a real asset, allowing them to rebound better and to play SF when necessary. Beal lacks that versatility and therefore his poor shooting is much more problematic.

[Halcyon]

Not only that, the good players on that list are better at getting into the lane and to the line. I think in order for Beal to be a scorer, he needs to improve that aspect if he isn't going to be a lights out shooter.

[fishercob]

From the "shot worse" lists, these SG/SF names jump out at me:

- Kobe Bryant
- Joe Johnson
- Jamal Crawford
- JR Smith
- Quentin Richardson
- Jason Richardson
- James Harden

Methinks it's STILL too early to worry about Beal.

Joe Johnson, QRich and JRich are all really big guys though. Their size was a real asset, allowing them to rebound better and to play SF when necessary. Beal lacks that versatility and therefore his poor shooting is much more problematic.

But Beal rebounds basically as well as Joe JOhnson and JRich did as rookies, and not appreciably worse than Q. And he's younger. I disagree that Beal lacks versatility and expect him to be a much better player than Q Richardson.

[Nivek]

Code: Select all

PLAYER  HEIGHT  WEIGHT  REACH   VERT    BENCH
Beal    6-4.75  202     8-4     39.0    8
Jrich   6-5.75  213     8-6.5   39.5    15
Johnson 6-8.25  226     8-9     36.5    12


Joe Johnson was indeed bigger. Richardson -- not so much. Beal did fewer bench press reps, but was still about average for a drafted SG. I guess it's time for another blog entry about Beal. Gotta wait until tomorrow, though.

[AFM]

I don't think bench press is a very useful stat.

[tontoz]

Not only that, the good players on that list are better at getting into the lane and to the line. I think in order for Beal to be a scorer, he needs to improve that aspect if he isn't going to be a lights out shooter.

Harden and Kobe are the only guys on that list who get to the line significantly more than Beal. Beal gets to the line as much or more than the rest of them, going by career averages.

[Illuminaire]

Not only that, the good players on that list are better at getting into the lane and to the line. I think in order for Beal to be a scorer, he needs to improve that aspect if he isn't going to be a lights out shooter.

Harden and Kobe are the only guys on that list who get to the line significantly more than Beal. Beal gets to the line as much or more than the rest of them, going by career averages.

To piggy back on Tontoz, you're also thinking of those guys as finished products, not as rookies.

[fishercob]

Not only that, the good players on that list are better at getting into the lane and to the line. I think in order for Beal to be a scorer, he needs to improve that aspect if he isn't going to be a lights out shooter.

Harden and Kobe are the only guys on that list who get to the line significantly more than Beal. Beal gets to the line as much or more than the rest of them, going by career averages.

To piggy back on Tontoz, you're also thinking of those guys as finished products, not as rookies.

Good point. Most of these guys aren't memorable as rooks because they were nondescript, on bad teams, etc. Kobe failed spectacularly as a rookie and turned out ok.

[fishercob]

Beal also has to deal with another factor that Kobe, and most teenage/one-and-done wings don't: fatigue.

Beal is adjusting to an NBA schedule while playing a what I believe to be a reasonably ludicrous 29.5 MPG, and rising -- he exceeded 40 minutes last night.

Kobe played 15.5 mpg as a rookie.

And while Eric Gordon had a great rookie year scoring the ball in 34 mpg, Harden, Joe Johnson, Monta Ellis, Paul George, the recently-mentioned Quentin RIchardson, and Jrue Holiday all carried a much lighter minute load than Beal is.

The roster construction and minute distribution belie a "trial by fire" approach to Beal's development.

[TGW]

Brad Beal is the last player I worry about on this team. Dude is 19.