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Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2

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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#941 » by LyricalRico » Wed Jan 9, 2013 5:43 pm

Verajao out 6-8 weeks after knee surgery. Cleveland may have missed their chance to get great value for him in a trade.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#942 » by tontoz » Wed Jan 9, 2013 5:53 pm

LyricalRico wrote:Verajao out 6-8 weeks after knee surgery. Cleveland may have missed their chance to get great value for him in a trade.


This makes them a much bigger threat in the tank race though.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#943 » by nate33 » Wed Jan 9, 2013 6:01 pm

LyricalRico wrote:Verajao out 6-8 weeks after knee surgery. Cleveland may have missed their chance to get great value for him in a trade.

That really is too bad for Cleveland. Vesely would have been the perfect asset to trade to a contending team.

The good news is that Okafor may now be one of the best bigs among those who are realistically available. Dalembert is out there too, but he has been terrible this year and has missed a bunch of games due to injury. I sincerely hope that EG is working the phones at the Trade Deadline to set up an Okafor trade. I like Okafor, but there is no logical reason to keep two, highly paid veteran bigs on this ball club.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#944 » by nate33 » Wed Jan 9, 2013 6:10 pm

Nivek wrote:A "created" shot is valuable when it goes in. Not every time, obviously, but at a better rate than an alternative shot from a teammate.

It's kinda funny that this is coming up since Hollinger would be one of the stat guys most likely to overvalue Gay because of his reliance on PER, which sets the efficiency bar so low. Basically, a player can increase his PER merely by shooting more frequently, so long as he makes more than ~27%. PER rewards guys who "create" (and miss) shots.

Nivek, I understand your point that PER shouldn't go up with percentages in low 30's. But at the same time, I think there is something to the argument that players who can "create shots" are a little more valuable than what their shooting efficiency alone suggests. A shot creator is needed in order to set up those high efficiency shots that good low-usage role players take and make. For that reason, a shot creator who can create shots at slightly less than league average efficiency is still an asset, because his teammates won't be shooting an average efficiency if it were not for him getting them open.

I don't know what the "break even" point should be. I agree that Hollinger's break even percentage of 27% seems low; but my gut tells me that it shouldn't be as high as 53% (which is the league average TS%) either. What is your "break even" percentage, and how did you arrive at that number?
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#945 » by Nivek » Wed Jan 9, 2013 7:01 pm

The break-even point on shooting from the floor in PPA varies from season to season based on offensive rebounding rates. That point has been rising as offensive rebounding has fallen off in recent years. For this season so far, the break-even is a TS% of about 43%. For PER, it's about 31%.

As I said above, shot creators are valuable when they're making those created shots at a marginal rate that's better than an alternative shot from a teammate. I agree that creators have more value than their pure shooting percentage suggests.

Gay, for example, actually has net credits in PPA for his shooting from the floor and the FT line. He loses ground because of his subpar assists and turnovers, as well as his subpar rebounding.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#946 » by MikeTheKid » Wed Jan 9, 2013 7:02 pm

So apparently Blatche picked up girls from a Philly Gentlemen's Club and brought them to his hotel. Looks like one of Blatche's boys gave the girl the date rape drug!!!
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#947 » by MikeTheKid » Wed Jan 9, 2013 7:04 pm

Also a tweet from Sam Amico with the sale of the Kings to a Seattle based group

Sam Amico ‏@SamAmicoFSO
Wizards have total locker room disharmony. Guys don't even want to be in there at same time. I'd consider that before begging for Cousins.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#948 » by nate33 » Wed Jan 9, 2013 7:24 pm

MikeTheKid wrote:Also a tweet from Sam Amico with the sale of the Kings to a Seattle based group

Sam Amico ‏@SamAmicoFSO
Wizards have total locker room disharmony. Guys don't even want to be in there at same time. I'd consider that before begging for Cousins.

WTF?

Did I miss something? I never got this vibe from watching the players on the court and listening to interviews. I'm sure there's some grumbling, there would have to be with a 5-26 record. But "total locker room disharmony"? I haven't seen it.

I get the sense that most of them are on the same page and are total professionals working as hard as they can to get better. By all accounts, Okafor and Nene are that way. When you listen to Martell Webster, you can tell he really cares about winning. Beal is a good guy. Booker is a good guy. You have to assume that a walk-on like Temple is giving 100% just to hold his job, as is Cartier Martin. Wall hasn't been around so I don't think he counts. That really only leaves a few people who could conceivably be a problem: Crawford, Singleton, Seraphin, Ariza and Price.

And frankly, none of these guys matter towards our future with the possible exception of Seraphin (who would be traded in a Cousins trade).
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#949 » by AFM » Wed Jan 9, 2013 7:26 pm

Yeah, I don't see that at all. "Guys don't even want to be there at the same time"?
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#950 » by Upper Decker » Wed Jan 9, 2013 7:59 pm

I'm actually ticked Sacramento is moving to Seattle. I was hoping Ted would move the team to Seattle so we could de-stench the Washington DC metro area of this life sucking franchise.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#951 » by FAH1223 » Wed Jan 9, 2013 8:02 pm

MikeTheKid wrote:Also a tweet from Sam Amico with the sale of the Kings to a Seattle based group

Sam Amico ‏@SamAmicoFSO
Wizards have total locker room disharmony. Guys don't even want to be in there at same time. I'd consider that before begging for Cousins.


Really?

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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#952 » by LyricalRico » Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:25 pm

With Dallas completely floundering, does what does Cuban do now? If he stays the course and goes the cap space route, he's basically got one shot - Dwight Howard. But wouldn't Howard have the same question as Deron Williams: "How are you going to afford to build a complete team?"

Might the Mavs be "buyers" at the trade deadline for some of the overpaid guys on longterm deals that are on the market (Bargnani, Gay, etc)? Maybe even Nene?
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#953 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:30 pm

LyricalRico wrote:With Dallas completely floundering, does what does Cuban do now? If he stays the course and goes the cap space route, he's basically got one shot - Dwight Howard. But wouldn't Howard have the same question as Deron Williams: "How are you going to afford to build a complete team?"

Might the Mavs be "buyers" at the trade deadline for some of the overpaid guys on longterm deals that are on the market (Bargnani, Gay, etc)? Maybe even Nene?

Interesting.

Or perhaps, rather than long-term contracts like Nene, they would be interested in contracts that expire in 2014 alongside Dirk and Marion. The idea would be to field a reasonably competitive team for Dirk's final year, and then be prepared to tank hard and rebuild from scratch. Obviously, the players that would be most attractive in that scenario would be Okafor and Ariza.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#954 » by LyricalRico » Thu Jan 10, 2013 8:40 pm

^ Yep, also possible. Before the season started I thought that Kaman-for-Okafor might be a deadline possibility, but that was when I expected the Mavs to be a defensive big away from making some noise (or at least making the playoffs). But Kaman seems to be putting up some decent scoring numbers, so I don't know if that's possible now.

Problem is that, other than Kaman's expiring, they don't have much to offer. A package of Kaman+Carter+Jones+Beaubois is probably the best they can do as a mix of expirings and guys that can contribute without totally destroying their depth.

But what can they get for it (besides Oka-Riza)?
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#955 » by I_Like_Dirt » Thu Jan 10, 2013 8:45 pm

LyricalRico wrote:With Dallas completely floundering, does what does Cuban do now? If he stays the course and goes the cap space route, he's basically got one shot - Dwight Howard. But wouldn't Howard have the same question as Deron Williams: "How are you going to afford to build a complete team?"

Might the Mavs be "buyers" at the trade deadline for some of the overpaid guys on longterm deals that are on the market (Bargnani, Gay, etc)? Maybe even Nene?


Unless that player is a legit star player (think Kevin Love), I'm guessing they won't be buyers on overpaid contracts at this point. Cuban is a lot of things, but he seems to recognize that you need at least one star player in order to be more than a middling team in the NBA. I think he'd be more likely to be a buyer on a contract like that after picking up a star or two because at that point he'd be less choosy and just trying to fit all the talent he could on the team at the same time to try and win. Cuban was able to pick up guys like Brand, Collison, Kaman, Mayo, etc. on the cheap this season so I doubt he goes for guys like Bargnani and Nene who are injury-prone and not decisively more impactful players. If Cuban doesn't grab stars, there might be a couple amnesty candidates he might be able to bid on or he'll go after guys like Jose Calderon or something like that where he doesn't have to trade assets and has control of the type of contract he gives.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#956 » by LyricalRico » Thu Jan 10, 2013 8:53 pm

LyricalRico wrote:A package of Kaman+Carter+Jones+Beaubois is probably the best they can do as a mix of expirings and guys that can contribute without totally destroying their depth.

But what can they get for it (besides Oka-Riza)?


A few ideas:

To Chicago for Deng and Rip?
To Charlotte for Gordon+Henderson+Mullens?
To Denver for Iggy+Mozgov+pick?
To Minny for Ridnour+DWill+filler?
To Milwaukee for Monta Ellis?

I think you could argue that those deals might shake them up for the better, and they could still target 2014 as a rebuild year.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#957 » by sashae » Fri Jan 11, 2013 2:48 pm

nate33 wrote:I get the sense that most of them are on the same page and are total professionals working as hard as they can to get better. By all accounts, Okafor and Nene are that way. When you listen to Martell Webster, you can tell he really cares about winning. Beal is a good guy. Booker is a good guy. You have to assume that a walk-on like Temple is giving 100% just to hold his job, as is Cartier Martin. Wall hasn't been around so I don't think he counts. That really only leaves a few people who could conceivably be a problem: Crawford, Singleton, Seraphin, Ariza and Price.


YOU FORGOT ABOUT VESELY. That guy is a bad apple, I can see it in his eyes.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#958 » by BigA » Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:36 pm

sashae wrote:
nate33 wrote:I get the sense that most of them are on the same page and are total professionals working as hard as they can to get better. By all accounts, Okafor and Nene are that way. When you listen to Martell Webster, you can tell he really cares about winning. Beal is a good guy. Booker is a good guy. You have to assume that a walk-on like Temple is giving 100% just to hold his job, as is Cartier Martin. Wall hasn't been around so I don't think he counts. That really only leaves a few people who could conceivably be a problem: Crawford, Singleton, Seraphin, Ariza and Price.


YOU FORGOT ABOUT VESELY. That guy is a bad apple, I can see it in his eyes.


Vesely may be a locker room cancer, but his on-court contribution is so phenomenal that Randy isn't in a position to enforce any discipline.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#959 » by nate33 » Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:42 pm

sashae wrote:
nate33 wrote:I get the sense that most of them are on the same page and are total professionals working as hard as they can to get better. By all accounts, Okafor and Nene are that way. When you listen to Martell Webster, you can tell he really cares about winning. Beal is a good guy. Booker is a good guy. You have to assume that a walk-on like Temple is giving 100% just to hold his job, as is Cartier Martin. Wall hasn't been around so I don't think he counts. That really only leaves a few people who could conceivably be a problem: Crawford, Singleton, Seraphin, Ariza and Price.


YOU FORGOT ABOUT VESELY. That guy is a bad apple, I can see it in his eyes.

Gee. I forgot about Vesely. How could that possibly have happened?
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 2 

Post#960 » by sashae » Fri Jan 11, 2013 8:52 pm

nate33 wrote:Gee. I forgot about Vesely. How could that possibly have happened?


Well he wasn't in the cold tub photo with Wall I can see how you overlooked him. It happens.
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