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Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Part II

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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#161 » by nate33 » Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:15 pm

I'd consider the Jamison Dump to be a pretty good move. But other than that, I can't think of another.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#162 » by barelyawake » Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:18 pm

My bet is that expiring contracts, developed players and a high draft pick will yield more than the above list. A draft pick we would not have had. It is easier to go from worst to first than the middle to first.

And I love how the same people laughing now were laughing saying advanced statistics said that Wall coming back would have a marginal effect on this team.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#163 » by LyricalRico » Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:24 pm

barelyawake wrote:My bet is that expiring contracts, developed players and a high draft pick will yield more than the above list. A draft pick we would not have had. It is easier to go from worst to first than the middle to first.

And I love how the same people laughing now were laughing saying advanced statistics said that Wall coming back would have a marginal effect on this team.


+1

Don't let the haters get you down, BA. I'm also bullish on our near-term opportunities.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#164 » by tontoz » Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:28 pm

barelyawake wrote:My bet is that expiring contracts, developed players and a high draft pick will yield more than the above list. A draft pick we would not have had. It is easier to go from worst to first than the middle to first.

And I love how the same people laughing now were laughing saying advanced statistics said that Wall coming back would have a marginal effect on this team.



Could u be a little more specific here? I don't remember anyone saying Wall would be only marginally better than Mack/Livingston/Pargo/Temple.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#165 » by leswizards » Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:31 pm

barelyawake wrote:My bet is that expiring contracts, developed players and a high draft pick will yield more than the above list. A draft pick we would not have had. It is easier to go from worst to first than the middle to first.

And I love how the same people laughing now were laughing saying advanced statistics said that Wall coming back would have a marginal effect on this team.


Basically, you are saying that EG has made the team so bad that good draft picks will make us better. There is some truth to that, but the first problem with that is that it was not EG's plan to be bad in order to get good draft picks. EG's plan was to be somewhere between mediocre and good the next couple of seasons. The second problem is that John Wall's return, which you laud, threatens to take the Wizards back to mediocrity, which you suggest should be avoided.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#166 » by Nivek » Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:32 pm

barelyawake wrote:My bet is that expiring contracts, developed players and a high draft pick will yield more than the above list. A draft pick we would not have had. It is easier to go from worst to first than the middle to first.

And I love how the same people laughing now were laughing saying advanced statistics said that Wall coming back would have a marginal effect on this team.


Who said this? Which advanced stats?

What does this line of attack have to do with the Wizards "playing their cards right"? When have the Wizards done this? Why should we believe that Grunfeld and Leonsis will be the guys to play these cards right?

Can I end this thread with another question?

Why not?
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#167 » by dobrojim » Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:51 pm

my bet is that the average finish position for a given year's champion
in the previous year is basically never worst. Usually it's close to first.

Name a single champion that went from worst to first.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#168 » by TGW » Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:08 pm

I think barely meant to post in the "Kool-Aid" thread.

Plenty of teams have expiring contracts, developing players, and expiring contracts, and yet they end up....being a terrible basketball team the next season. Hell, were the Wizards not in this position the past 2 seasons.

It's what you do with it, and this FO has not shown any ability to take advantage of capspace or picks. To assume they are going to take advantage of said opportunities is very optimistic, since the past has shown otherwise.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#169 » by LyricalRico » Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:15 pm

dobrojim wrote:my bet is that the average finish position for a given year's champion
in the previous year is basically never worst. Usually it's close to first.

Name a single champion that went from worst to first.


Didn't that happen for the Spurs first title run?

So it's possible! :clap:
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#170 » by dobrojim » Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:29 pm

didn't happen

SAN got the first pick but they were never last. VAN had that
distinction the year before SAN drafted TD.

And it was like SAN got 2 franchise #1s that next year
since DRob only played 8 games the year before.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#171 » by Kanyewest » Wed Jan 23, 2013 9:46 pm

nate33 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Only if this deal never happened...

1. accept trade for Harden
2. buyout Lewis - S&T for R. Anderson for Booker
3. draft Crowder instead of what's his name?
4. resign J. Singleton

Wall ... Price
Harden ... Crawford
Webster ... Crowder ... Martin
R. Anderson ... J. Singleton ... Vesely
Nene ... Seraphin

That team would play .500 ball without Wall, and .600 ball with him.


Well Probably below .500 until Nene got back. Wizards would have been really small.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#172 » by barelyawake » Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:05 pm

As CCJ mentioned, I believe our situation is similar to the Celtics. Not last, but collecting enough high picks to make a big jump.

Who said EG is part of our future? Who says "playing their cards right" isn't firing EG?

You have zero idea if Cousins, or any other imagined acquisition, would have come here had we not had another high draft pick and Beal.

Nivek, did you not post that EG/Ted were lying when they said that the return of Wall would bring about a different, more successful style, of basketball?

I simply believe that expiring contracts and high picks are more valuable than a guy like Anderson.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#173 » by Nivek » Thu Jan 24, 2013 4:38 pm

barelyawake wrote:As CCJ mentioned, I believe our situation is similar to the Celtics. Not last, but collecting enough high picks to make a big jump.

Who said EG is part of our future? Who says "playing their cards right" isn't firing EG?


Fair point. I think most of us (except maybe, Rico) would agree that "playing their cards right" would include a new GM. I haven't seen anything from Leonsis suggesting he's even considering that move, but...depending on who he hired to replace Grunfeld...it could be a good move.

Nivek, did you not post that EG/Ted were lying when they said that the return of Wall would bring about a different, more successful style, of basketball?


While I think they're often disingenuous, I didn't say they were lying, I said they were wrong when they asserted that playing at a faster pace would make the team better. During Wall's career -- heck, at any point in the past 6-7 years I've been paying attention to this question -- I've found no relationship between pace and efficiency, offensive or defensive.

I've thought (and written/posted) that the Wizards would be better when Wall got back because Wall is a better player than the guys they'd been running at PG. Wall has indeed been an upgrade over the previous guys (Livingston, Mack, Temple). At the same time, Price has also played extremely well since he returned from injury. Beal caught fire from three (a development that pre-dated Wall's return to the lineup), Booker returned so they could stop playing Singleton...you know, other stuff happened too. (As an aside, I've thought (and still think) that the more important player on offense is actually Nene.)

Now to the issue of how much Wall is helping the team. The narrative (and please correct me if I'm wrong) is that when Wall's on the floor, he pushes the pace, which helps his teammates by creating more fastbreak opportunities for them, and he draws defenders with his penetration, which allows his teammates better looks at the basket.

The result of this should be a more efficient offense -- more points per possession. The offense with Wall on the floor produces 103.3 pts per 100 possessions, which is a significant improvement on the season average of 97.1 (ouch). But, in the 7 games since Wall's return, the team has produced 106.6 pts per 100 possessions when he's been off the floor. (Info courtesy of Evan Zamir who created nbawowy.com.)

The defense has been MUCH better since Wall got back. How much credit for that goes to Wall...dunno. But, that's not the narrative being told about how Wall improves the team. I haven't heard an analyst make the argument that Wall helps the team by being a lock-down defender.

Back to pace for a sec. The team has played at a faster pace since Wall returned, and both the offense and defense have been better (meaning more efficient). Whether the faster pace is causing improved efficiency -- that's iffier. For example, the two slowest-paced games since Wall came back were Orlando (ortg of 128) and the Clippers (ortg of 93). The two fastest-paced games were Denver (ortg of 113), and Utah (ortg of 98).

Anyway, it's clear that the Wizards are playing better since Wall returned. What's less clear is how much credit for that better play belongs to Wall. And, it's pretty dubious (at least in my analysis) that the reasons for the team playing better are those articulated by Leonsis and Grunfeld. At best, I would say the data are inconclusive. In my view, the data (at least so far) indicate their reasoning is incorrect. The sample size is very small, of course. (Just worth mentioning, however, that the "analysts" who talk about the Wizards are often using this same kind of reasoning when describing Wall's return to the lineup, and small sample size or not, the data don't support the conclusions they're reaching.)
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#174 » by hands11 » Fri Feb 1, 2013 1:02 am

Hey, this Meka cat isn't to bad.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2399/emeka-okafor

Wed 1/30 @PHI L 84-92 15 PTS, 17 REB
Mon 1/28 SAC L 94-96 23 PTS, 15 REB
Sat 1/26 CHI W 86-73 15 PTS, 16 REB

January Numbers.

27.9 min .535 11.4 rebounds, 1.0 block, 11.2 pts

8 double double
2x 17 rebound games.

Looks like he is returning to pre-injury form.

Those 3 game numbers are just insane. And his game is so bread and butter. Position. Boxing out. And one offense, he knows his shot. He has like 3-4 moves. A few around the basket and one area he will shot away from the basket and that is a the FT line.

Consider how he played in preseason, Meka has to be the surprise of the year for this team.

And he is in good shape. I see no reason he can't do this for another 2-3 years.

So how much is a player worth that can post number like he has those last 3 games ?
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#175 » by payitforward » Fri Feb 1, 2013 1:27 am

hands11 wrote:...Meka has to be the surprise of the year for this team.

I see no reason he can't do this for another 2-3 years.

So how much is a player worth that can post number like he has those last 3 games ?

Okafor has played great all season; he's among the top handful of Centers in the league in overall numbers. No argument.

As to your seeing no reason he can't keep it up for 2-3 years, what basis would you have to see or not to see that reason? None, obviously.

Still, the problem w/ Okafor is that even in that 2-3 year window we aren't going to have a team that can really take advantage of that level of performance. As Nivek points out, acquiring him was part of the "all in for .500" so-called strategy and a dead giveaway that "build through youth and the draft" was a marketing position not a real plan.

Okafor played great last night vs. the Sixers, didn't he? But we didn't come close to a win.

Still, like you I'm happy for the guy, happy to see him playing so well!
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#176 » by hands11 » Fri Feb 1, 2013 1:37 am

Actually the basis is pretty simple and I think I said a good bit of it already.

He takes good care of himself.
He is only 30
His game is based on sound fundamentals. He isn't crashing the boards from the outside and jumping over people. He has position. And his offense is also sound. He does the same moves over and over.

He has been a double double machine his entire career.

Play him 32 minutes a game, you will get a double double more often then not.

I sure hope some of his stye and approach starts to rub off on the young post players.

Fans jumping on the Meka Bus

http://games.espn.go.com/fba/addeddropped?
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#177 » by montestewart » Fri Feb 1, 2013 2:03 am

hands11 wrote:His game is based on sound fundamentals. He isn't crashing the boards from the outside and jumping over people. He has position. And his offense is also sound. He does the same moves over and over.

Agreed, but prior to this year, Okafor has missed 20% of regular season games due to injury. Odds are that percentage will go up, not down, as his age progresses. And that's at a career average of 32 mpg.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#178 » by payitforward » Fri Feb 1, 2013 2:04 am

hands11 wrote:Actually the basis is pretty simple and I think I said a good bit of it already.

He takes good care of himself.
He is only 30
His game is based on sound fundamentals. He isn't crashing the boards from the outside and jumping over people. He has position. And his offense is also sound. He does the same moves over and over.

He has been a double double machine his entire career.

Play him 32 minutes a game, you will get a double double more often then not.

I sure hope some of his stye and approach starts to rub off on the young post players.

Fans jumping on the Meka Bus

http://games.espn.go.com/fba/addeddropped?

Those are all good things, I agree. Just not the basis for predicting the future.

Then again... maybe you didn't predict the future. "see no reason why he can't" is actually pretty accurate come to think of it. So... my bad on that one!
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#179 » by hands11 » Fri Feb 1, 2013 2:21 am

montestewart wrote:
hands11 wrote:His game is based on sound fundamentals. He isn't crashing the boards from the outside and jumping over people. He has position. And his offense is also sound. He does the same moves over and over.

Agreed, but prior to this year, Okafor has missed 20% of regular season games due to injury. Odds are that percentage will go up, not down, as his age progresses. And that's at a career average of 32 mpg.


That may be true.

He also play 3 years in a row and only missed 1 game.

Hey, Webster missed a lot of games in his career as well. Does he look like he is going to miss a bunch more or do you think he just had a bad run of things for a while.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#180 » by montestewart » Fri Feb 1, 2013 2:36 am

^
I'm just going with the odds (and maybe a little Wizards fatalism). I don't want him to get injured, and I'm glad to see him playing so well, certainly exceeding my expectations.

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