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Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Part II

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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#41 » by Kanyewest » Wed Jul 18, 2012 6:52 pm

fishercob wrote:I work in retail real estate. I was on tour with a client yesterday and asked him how much of a sales bump a certain retailer gets from having a drive-thru. His response was that there is no way to tell. He can tell what the drive-thru stores do in volume vs. what the non-drive-thru stores do in volume, but there are so many other factors that go into the performance of a store (location, access, visibility, parking, competition, market, etc), that is impossible to say "this store will do X volume with a drive-thru and Y volume without."

This trade, this season, and the Wizards in general will go as John Wall goes. If Wall makes The Leap, plays like and becomes an all-star (his chances are improved with Rose hurt and Lin in Houston, Nash staying West, Kyrie's hand, etc), proponents of this trade (including the front office and the Blogger in CHief) will say "SEE, we're doing so well! The trade worked!" And if Wall struggles, the WIzards will too -- without a doubt. And then the trade opponents will scream from the highest rooftops about how right they were about what a massive opportunity cost this deal carried and that Ernie should be executed at the corner of 7th and H.

This trade is a drive thru. It's difficult to measure the incremental benefit. But at the end of the day, retailers don't care about how the drive thru performs. They just care about how their stores do.

Anderson or Ilyasova or Lou Williams or whomever wouldn't have made a lick of difference here if Wall fails to become a star. And if Wall does become a star, OkaRiza isn't going to hold our team back.

So everyone just relax. For once.


It is kind of like the Gilbert Arenas situation though a few years back where the Wizards traded the #5 pick for pieces that would help them win now. Unfortunately, Arenas never returned to reform even before he brought the guns. At least the Wizards appeared to have given up less (although time will tell if the cap space could have been put to better use to what other teams do).

With Wall, I hope he will become that superstar player- so we'll see.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#42 » by BruceO » Wed Jul 18, 2012 7:49 pm

Trevor booker who some here say will be affected by the trade has something to say about it
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... _blog.html
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#43 » by fugop » Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:34 pm

I understand that this is an odd critera, but after Blatche's amnesty, there are no players on the team that I have mixed feelings about. I like them all, and will enjoy rooting for them, even if we suck.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#44 » by MJG » Wed Jul 18, 2012 8:55 pm

fugop wrote:I understand that this is an odd critera, but after Blatche's amnesty, there are no players on the team that I have mixed feelings about. I like them all, and will enjoy rooting for them, even if we suck.

Do you have a link? This is the first I'm hearing about Jordan Crawford being traded.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#45 » by TGW » Wed Jul 18, 2012 9:24 pm

MJG wrote:
fugop wrote:I understand that this is an odd critera, but after Blatche's amnesty, there are no players on the team that I have mixed feelings about. I like them all, and will enjoy rooting for them, even if we suck.

Do you have a link? This is the first I'm hearing about Jordan Crawford being traded.


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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#46 » by LyricalRico » Wed Jul 18, 2012 9:27 pm

DCZards wrote:I don’t agree that the Okafor/Ariza trade negatively affects the Zards rebuild. You can win games, make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed, give Wall and the other young players the positive and encouraging experience of winning games and making the playoffs....and rebuild at the same time.

Personally, I prefer that approach to that of continuing to lose games (and being out of the playoffs) while we develop youngin’s like Ves, Seraphin, Wall, Beal, etc.…or wait for the perfect storm of draft picks, free agent pick ups and trades that will result in the Zards going directly from a 20-30 win team to a title contender.


Exactly. I don't see how "trading for vets on relatively short contracts to help create a winning atmosphere" deviates from the plan, while "paying the max or near-max for a free agent that's probably not worth it just because you have cap space" somehow advances said plan.

Had we traded away several of our young players to get Okafor/Ariza, that would be different. That would be a clear deviation. But we didn't do that. We added veterans while keeping our existing talent base and maintaining longterm salary cap flexibility. How can that be equated with abandoning building the team?

Heck, the Nene trade was more of a "deviation" than the Okafor/Ariza trade. Most people that disliked it felt that way because of his longterm contract. I don't see the same longterm concerns with Okafor/Ariza. Sure, in the short-term we don't get to join the rest of the league in the excitement of overpaying B-level free agents this summer, but I'm not seeing that as a problem.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#47 » by TGW » Wed Jul 18, 2012 9:52 pm

LyricalRico wrote:
DCZards wrote:I don’t agree that the Okafor/Ariza trade negatively affects the Zards rebuild. You can win games, make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed, give Wall and the other young players the positive and encouraging experience of winning games and making the playoffs....and rebuild at the same time.

Personally, I prefer that approach to that of continuing to lose games (and being out of the playoffs) while we develop youngin’s like Ves, Seraphin, Wall, Beal, etc.…or wait for the perfect storm of draft picks, free agent pick ups and trades that will result in the Zards going directly from a 20-30 win team to a title contender.


Exactly. I don't see how "trading for vets on relatively short contracts to help create a winning atmosphere" deviates from the plan, while "paying the max or near-max for a free agent that's probably not worth it just because you have cap space" somehow advances said plan.

Had we traded away several of our young players to get Okafor/Ariza, that would be different. That would be a clear deviation. But we didn't do that. We added veterans while keeping our existing talent base and maintaining longterm salary cap flexibility. How can that be equated with abandoning building the team?



That's the problem...the existing talent base isn't that good. You might think Wall, Beal, Seraphin, and Vesely are enough to build around, but none of these players are guaranteed studs that can carry a team on his back. IMO, the team should still be in "gathering talent" mode, and not trying to pickup unwanted, overpaid vets for a shot at the eighth seed.

If they truly want to create a winning atmosphere using veteran players, then pick up GOOD vets. Not guys that we hope to play better in a Wizards uniform, which is what we're doing with Ariza and Okafor. In order for this team to be any good next season, Ariza and Okafor need to play better than they did last season...because they flat out sucked (especially Okafor). You keep acting like these guys are actually any good, when in reality, several players who were amnestied were better and more productive.

I don't see how anyone can spin this lousy trade.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#48 » by Ruzious » Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:00 pm

LyricalRico wrote:
DCZards wrote:I don’t agree that the Okafor/Ariza trade negatively affects the Zards rebuild. You can win games, make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed, give Wall and the other young players the positive and encouraging experience of winning games and making the playoffs....and rebuild at the same time.

Personally, I prefer that approach to that of continuing to lose games (and being out of the playoffs) while we develop youngin’s like Ves, Seraphin, Wall, Beal, etc.…or wait for the perfect storm of draft picks, free agent pick ups and trades that will result in the Zards going directly from a 20-30 win team to a title contender.


Exactly. I don't see how "trading for vets on relatively short contracts to help create a winning atmosphere" deviates from the plan, while "paying the max or near-max for a free agent that's probably not worth it just because you have cap space" somehow advances said plan.

Had we traded away several of our young players to get Okafor/Ariza, that would be different. That would be a clear deviation. But we didn't do that. We added veterans while keeping our existing talent base and maintaining longterm salary cap flexibility. How can that be equated with abandoning building the team?

Heck, the Nene trade was more of a "deviation" than the Okafor/Ariza trade. Most people that disliked it felt that way because of his longterm contract. I don't see the same longterm concerns with Okafor/Ariza. Sure, in the short-term we don't get to join the rest of the league in the excitement of overpaying B-level free agents this summer, but I'm not seeing that as a problem.

The time to use that cap flexibility was this offseason or next. Even though Okariza come off the books in 2 years, it doesn't open back up all of the cap flex, because Wall will cost a ton more on the cap. The hope was to pick up at least one building block with the cap space - rather than rent-a-players who likely mean just a couple more wins. But hey, we'll hope for the best.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#49 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Jul 18, 2012 11:44 pm

fishercob wrote:I am not that concerned that OkaRiza will harm the development of Seraphin, Vesely, Booker and Singleton. Those guys will need to earn their minutes; that may be as good or better for their development than being thrown into the fire or handed PT by default. That said, you may be right and the deal may have unintended consequences. We'll find out.

To be clear, I'm not defending the trade. I think I'd have preferred us trading Shard for Gordon, Villanueva and the protected 1st Detroit sent to Charlotte. I can certainly see the case for just cutting Lewis, amnestying Blatche and either sitting it out or trying to play in free agency.

My point remains that everything hinges on Wall, and hopefully Beal thereafter. IF Wall and Beal become the dynamic duo that we all hope, players will want to come here to play with them. We may be two years or less from Lamarcus Aldridge walking into Paul Allen's office and saying "trade me to Washington."


My problem is that history suggests that contracts get minutes, that players don't consistently earn their minutes, quite often they are given them. It's all well and good to say that Seraphin and Booker and Ves need to earn their minutes, but what we've seen historically is that players get minutes for all manner of reasons if they aren't super stars, and that the biggest of those reasons is usually the contract, rather than anything else because a team wants to move the contract, or improve the fat contracts play with the carrot of increased minutes.

I happen to think Okafor should be third in the rotation behind Seraphin and Nene. Will he be third? I very much doubt it, I am betting that Okafor gets plenty of minutes, and Seraphin has to fight for scraps, which will leave me essentially pining for Okafor to get dinged allow Seraphin to reclaim the job. Additionally where are Booker and Ves gonna get their minutes? I have no idea. I understand that they probably should be fifth and sixth in that dog pile of bigs, but that, in and of itself is part of the problem. They need minutes and they aren't going to get the them, and we need them to get minutes because we have to move on from one of them going forward sooner rather than later. How can we get a good decision on that sorta thing with management this incompetent, and not enough minutes for the players?

I have less concern with Ariza, because for now he's better than Singleton period, but my problem again, still exists because what Singleton needs to improve is game experience, not practice. His bread and butter will always be defense, he'll never be more than adequate on the offensive end, and he struggled last year on defense largely due to inexperience, and unfamiliarity with the style of play and officiating at the NBA level. The only way to improve in those areas is to get more minutes and more time on the court. Practicing isn't going to improve him. We passed on Faried and other board favorites like Tobias Harris for this guy, and I want him to reach his potential as a defensive stopper. The last thing I want is for him to lose minutes to a guy still coasting on a rep he earned in a playoff series or two three freaking years ago.

Your last points I agree with. I definitely agree with. I just happen to think the spine of teams reside in those 4-8 or so players on the roster. The second tier guys, starters, and first guys off the bench, and now, the guys that would likely form that spine, Seraphin, Vesely, Booker, and Singelton, are going to be shunted to the side for vets who have neither a future, nor much of a present in Okafor and Ariza and that is totally unacceptable to me, even if it is reality. Its painful to watch this team being driven into the ground. I saw the same thing with the Caps for years, and when Cerrato joined the redskins (born, raised, and still a California guy (though in the Sierra Nevada's now, I was more than familir with Cerrato's demolition job with Dwight Clark on the Niners in the nineties), and of course with the Boulez we've seen it for 35 years going. It's enough already, and yet it still won't freaking stop. Its infuriating. Thankfully the Caps, Redskins, and especially the Nats are all run by guys with a clue, particularly the Caps and Nats, so there is solace and that, but I have to admit to being sick and tired of this team being consistently one of the worst in the NBA, and at this point, even more poorly run than the Clippers who finally, accidentally, figured it out.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#50 » by Nivek » Thu Jul 19, 2012 1:14 pm

LyricalRico wrote:
DCZards wrote:I don’t agree that the Okafor/Ariza trade negatively affects the Zards rebuild. You can win games, make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed, give Wall and the other young players the positive and encouraging experience of winning games and making the playoffs....and rebuild at the same time.

Personally, I prefer that approach to that of continuing to lose games (and being out of the playoffs) while we develop youngin’s like Ves, Seraphin, Wall, Beal, etc.…or wait for the perfect storm of draft picks, free agent pick ups and trades that will result in the Zards going directly from a 20-30 win team to a title contender.


Exactly. I don't see how "trading for vets on relatively short contracts to help create a winning atmosphere" deviates from the plan, while "paying the max or near-max for a free agent that's probably not worth it just because you have cap space" somehow advances said plan.


And of course, those are the only options, right?

Had we traded away several of our young players to get Okafor/Ariza, that would be different. That would be a clear deviation. But we didn't do that. We added veterans while keeping our existing talent base and maintaining longterm salary cap flexibility. How can that be equated with abandoning building the team?

Heck, the Nene trade was more of a "deviation" than the Okafor/Ariza trade. Most people that disliked it felt that way because of his longterm contract. I don't see the same longterm concerns with Okafor/Ariza. Sure, in the short-term we don't get to join the rest of the league in the excitement of overpaying B-level free agents this summer, but I'm not seeing that as a problem.


Both the Nene trade and the Okafor/Ariza trades were deviations from the plan they articulated. One of the trades could be defensible. The moves together undermine the rebuild because for the next couple years, young front-court players will not have playing time to develop. And, the Okafor/Ariza trade gives the team no long-term assets.

Had they taken the strategy I described earlier in the thread, they'd have been able to use cap space to add younger players who could stick around for several years, as well as a short-term vet as a security blanket.

Plus, as others have pointed out, the Okafor/Ariza trade is really a short-term deal for decent vets. The Wizards effectively traded their best asset for acquiring long-term building blocks in exchange for two years of maybe a modest upgrade over what they already had.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#51 » by payitforward » Thu Jul 19, 2012 1:51 pm

Nivek wrote:
Both the Nene trade and the Okafor/Ariza trades were deviations from the plan they articulated. One of the trades could be defensible. The moves together undermine the rebuild .... And, the Okafor/Ariza trade gives the team no long-term assets.

...the Okafor/Ariza trade...The Wizards effectively traded their best asset for acquiring long-term building blocks in exchange for two years of maybe a modest upgrade over what they already had.

Yup, that about nails it. You can understand the Nene trade. Too much risk in JaVale. But the rest of our moves (other than drafting Beal) ....?

No, we don't have the youthful core of a team that can contend for a title. The main fantasy is over-valueing John Wall (not to say he won't turn out quite a good player). But, it's also unclear how much Seraphin actually developed or how far Vesely can go -- tho indications in his case are pretty good.

Beal looks like the real deal despite crappy shooting in SL, and Booker is a quality player. But Crawford and Mack are most definitely not, and Singleton looks like an NBA journeyman at best.

Had we bought out Rashard, we might have been in a very good position to get Fields for what Ariza costs. He would be a foundation piece. Could we have acquired Ilyasova as well? Don't know.... But the effort would have been for someone who helps *build the team.*

Instead we have the move I think of as typical of Ernie -- the quest for mediocrity, to be able to say "we can compete," something i've heard him say a zillion times and it always makes me gnash my teeth. You want to say "we can win."

So... it's really on Ted for retaining a proven non-performer as GM.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#52 » by LyricalRico » Thu Jul 19, 2012 1:56 pm

Nivek wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
DCZards wrote:I don’t agree that the Okafor/Ariza trade negatively affects the Zards rebuild. You can win games, make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed, give Wall and the other young players the positive and encouraging experience of winning games and making the playoffs....and rebuild at the same time.

Personally, I prefer that approach to that of continuing to lose games (and being out of the playoffs) while we develop youngin’s like Ves, Seraphin, Wall, Beal, etc.…or wait for the perfect storm of draft picks, free agent pick ups and trades that will result in the Zards going directly from a 20-30 win team to a title contender.


Exactly. I don't see how "trading for vets on relatively short contracts to help create a winning atmosphere" deviates from the plan, while "paying the max or near-max for a free agent that's probably not worth it just because you have cap space" somehow advances said plan.


And of course, those are the only options, right?


Well, I could use a similar response for those that seem to feel that the trade means there will be no further options for the next two years. That's not the case IMO.

Everyone was using their creativity to see what could be done this year with cap space. Why not apply the same level of creativity to seeing what we can do next summer with sizeable expiring contracts and a team that is much more professional and may have even tasted the playoffs? I guess it's just easier to bash Ernie.

Nivek wrote:Plus, as others have pointed out, the Okafor/Ariza trade is really a short-term deal for decent vets.


I would agree with that, and I think so would others who have defended/supported the trade. Seems like the real differences are 1) the expectation of what else was probable this year, and 2) the expected impact of adding decent vets to the roster. I think there's room for multiple opinions on both.

Nivek wrote:The Wizards effectively traded their best asset for acquiring long-term building blocks in exchange for two years of maybe a modest upgrade over what they already had.


We'll have to wait to see how it works out. We won't know the final roster for this season for a few more weeks, and we have yet to see the team on the floor. Then we have another offseason plus two trade deadlines to go through before their contracts expire. It may end up that relying on 2012 cap space really was the right way to go, but we're a long way from saying that for sure IMO.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#53 » by Nivek » Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:08 pm

Rico: Fair point that the Wizards could trade Okafor/Ariza. Or anyone else. But listen to what Ted's saying. He's already talking about stability and continuity. Doesn't sound like a guy who wants to make major moves next offseason.

Plus, the strategy I'm suggesting would have largely eliminated the need/desire to make additional "clever" trades of expiring contracts because the team would have acquired good young players on reasonable contracts who the team could continue building with.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#54 » by LyricalRico » Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:13 pm

^ I actually haven't read/heard much of what Ted is saying. I'm viewing these moves as stepping stones to other, bigger things. If that doesn't happen, then I might have to change my view. But again, we won't know that for a while.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#55 » by Nivek » Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:25 pm

LyricalRico wrote:^ I actually haven't read/heard much of what Ted is saying. I'm viewing these moves as stepping stones to other, bigger things. If that doesn't happen, then I might have to change my view. But again, we won't know that for a while.


From Ted's blog.

Ted Leonsis wrote:We stated we would have to rebuild the team, and focus on change and now we can say we delivered in that regard. Rebuilding a team is messy. I am pleased we have had this huge amount of change in such a short period of time. Now it is time to settle in and work on continuity, teamwork and becoming competitive. Then it’s on to becoming a playoff team by continuing to rebuild and invest – and then to becoming a destination, and competing for a ring.

We can’t short-circuit the process, but the first wave of massive change has been completed.


Of course, Ted has said/written at least a few things and then the team has done the opposite. But at least right now, it doesn't sound like a guy who's planning on significant roster moves.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#56 » by Shorty » Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:30 pm

Nivek wrote:Rico: Fair point that the Wizards could trade Okafor/Ariza. Or anyone else. But listen to what Ted's saying. He's already talking about stability and continuity. Doesn't sound like a guy who wants to make major moves next offseason.

Plus, the strategy I'm suggesting would have largely eliminated the need/desire to make additional "clever" trades of expiring contracts because the team would have acquired good young players on reasonable contracts who the team could continue building with.


Someone here has pointed out (sorry I can't remember who, or which thread) that the team has been circumspect in its specific comments about Okafor and Ariza, as a possible indication of plans/hopes to trade them at some point.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#57 » by DCZards » Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:23 pm

If Okafor ends up being an anchor in the middle--rebounding, playing good D and helping the Zards win games--I don't know why we would be so anxious to trade him.

People on this board have put forth strategies for improving the Zards, even proposing trades/free agent signings that they would have done instead of trading for Okafor/Ariza. But I have yet to see one idea that I think is significantly better than what the Zards have already done this offseason to improve the Zards. (Landry Fields, Childress, really?) And aren't most of these strategies/trades/free agent signings really just the hopes and dreams of us fans on the outside looking in?

People throw around terms like "sign a proven vet" or "acquire a long-term building block" as if all you have to do is pick up the phone and call another GM or a player's agent and it magically happens.

I'm just going to wait and see how the trade plays out in terms of the team's oncourt success before making any final judgements about the wisdom of the trade.
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#58 » by Nivek » Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:25 pm

DCZards wrote:
I'm just going to wait and see how the trade plays out in terms of the team's oncourt success before making any final judgements about the wisdom of the trade.


Aren't we all? :)
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#59 » by LyricalRico » Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:27 pm

Nivek wrote:
DCZards wrote:
I'm just going to wait and see how the trade plays out in terms of the team's oncourt success before making any final judgements about the wisdom of the trade.


Aren't we all? :)


But since we have to do something between now and then... "Down with cap space!"

Discuss! :wink:
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Re: Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Par 

Post#60 » by DCZards » Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:33 pm

Nivek wrote:
DCZards wrote:
I'm just going to wait and see how the trade plays out in terms of the team's oncourt success before making any final judgements about the wisdom of the trade.


Aren't we all? :)


No. Some on this board have obviously already concluded it's a bad trade. :D

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