fishercob wrote:I work in retail real estate. I was on tour with a client yesterday and asked him how much of a sales bump a certain retailer gets from having a drive-thru. His response was that there is no way to tell. He can tell what the drive-thru stores do in volume vs. what the non-drive-thru stores do in volume, but there are so many other factors that go into the performance of a store (location, access, visibility, parking, competition, market, etc), that is impossible to say "this store will do X volume with a drive-thru and Y volume without."
This trade, this season, and the Wizards in general will go as John Wall goes. If Wall makes The Leap, plays like and becomes an all-star (his chances are improved with Rose hurt and Lin in Houston, Nash staying West, Kyrie's hand, etc), proponents of this trade (including the front office and the Blogger in CHief) will say "SEE, we're doing so well! The trade worked!" And if Wall struggles, the WIzards will too -- without a doubt. And then the trade opponents will scream from the highest rooftops about how right they were about what a massive opportunity cost this deal carried and that Ernie should be executed at the corner of 7th and H.
This trade is a drive thru. It's difficult to measure the incremental benefit. But at the end of the day, retailers don't care about how the drive thru performs. They just care about how their stores do.
Anderson or Ilyasova or Lou Williams or whomever wouldn't have made a lick of difference here if Wall fails to become a star. And if Wall does become a star, OkaRiza isn't going to hold our team back.
So everyone just relax. For once.
I don't really disagree with you about much of anything here, the two areas I'd quibble with regard why some take issue with the trade, and the importance of Wall. I'd agree that this rebuild hinges mostly on Wall. It does, he and Beal are the the foundation pieces of this rebuild. They are virtually certain to be the best assets we acquired during this rebuilt iteration because we flushed our assets in the '09 draft, and were hosed in the '11 lottery. As a result, we will only get half of the rebuild pieces we should have had ((it is very interesting to imagine what might have happened if we'd not been hosed in '09 and had landed Harden/Rubio or Curry instead of trading away our pick for nothing and not been hosed in '11 and had our pick of Williams, Kantner, Irving or Valunciunas), and will rise or fall based on those two foundation pieces, and how well our complimentary pieces turn out.
This trade really distorts our ability to develop the complimentary pieces. We needed Seraphin, Vesely, Booker and Singleton to s or get off the pot in ’12-’13 and perhaps the front half of ’13-’14 allowing us to figure out who to keep and who to move going forward out of those four guys and to a lesser extent Crawford. Instead, we’ve now thrown serious minutes Okafor and Ariza’s way that will play no role in the rise or fall of this rebuild other than to occupy space, and harm the developmental curve of our complimentary players. Are they really going to have any impact on our long term development? Really? How exactly. Both will be gone before we’re any good, or not, and will only be here cluttering up space while we try to build an identity and chemistry. This rebuild if successful or moderately successful will largely play out as such beginning in ’13-’14, and at that point, these contracts will have already been moved, or will be wasting space for one more season.
For me, the trade was infurating precisely because it disrupted the rebuild, and was a massive waste of resources for no assets that will actually contribute to whether or not this rebuild was or is going to be successful. We didn’t need to do this, and in doing this, we got the least possible helpful return in terms of assets. Onerous contracts with players that aren’t better than anyone on our roster (Okafor), or aren’t quality starting material (Ariza).
We could have and should have played this the same way all BOYD deals are done, for future assets and or players with potential long term to help. Instead we got a lot of chaff instead of wheat, and it will waste space going forward, and clog up the wheels of the rebuild. I am not bitter about free agent dreams sacrificed, I thought it was unlikely we landed a primo FA until we played like a team that could attract said assets, what has left me unhinged is a trade that was made for the wrong reasons, and one in which we played the gullible rubes, and that we’ve hurt the rebuild by doing so.
I understand why some want the complainers to stop, or want to be constructive about this, but I can’t be constructive about a deal that was mindnumbingly stupid in my eyes other than in my dissection of how it was wrong, and the few slight positives that will most likely result from it which pale in comparison to negatives (a team better able to weather potential injuries, a bit of a stronger veteran identity and professionalism, maybe an extra win or three in the short term, particularly if there are injuries).
Yes, its true, that this trade won’t define whether the rebuild works, or not, that will depend in the end on Wall and Beal, but you’re wrong from the stand point that this deal could have a very negative impact on the relative quality of the rebuild when it comes to the complimentary players that always play a role as the spine of any rebuild, and Seraphin’s, Bookers, Vesely’s, and Singleton’s minutes are all key assets that shouldn’t have been wasted this way and it could hurt us badly, that this was done. Not as much as Wall busting of course, but just because something isn’t as important as Wall or Beal doesn’t negate its importance, and getting quality minutes and development for our second tier players is profoundly important if this rebuild is to go anywhere long term.
