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Nate33 wrote:

I don't really see a need to make a Part II so I won't do so. If somebody else wants to start a second thread to continue to look at wouldda shouldda couldda's, I won't stop them.

I felt like being an a**hole so here's part deux.

What were the chances the Hornets would have amnestied Okafor or Ariza this off-season if they didn't find a buyer (er, sucker) in Ernie?

EDIT: Link to old thread
- nate33

Dat2U wrote:Nate33 wrote:

I don't really see a need to make a Part II so I won't do so. If somebody else wants to start a second thread to continue to look at wouldda shouldda couldda's, I won't stop them.

I felt like being an a**hole so here's part deux.

What were the chances the Hornets would have amnestied Okafor or Ariza this off-season if they didn't find a buyer (er, sucker) in Ernie?

Who knows for sure...they still don't have a legitimate starting small forward, and Gordon was complaining about bigmen. They could have kept both and tried to unload Okafor before the trade deadline. Ariza, OTOH, probably would have been kept since he's cheaper, younger, more durable, and plays a position of need for them.

You can only amnesty one player.

Zonkerbl wrote:You can only amnesty one player.

He said "or".

its a terrible trade. It was done too early before we got to see what other options we had. Ernie Grunfeld is probably the worst GM in the history of pro sports. His record speaks for it self. Him and Ted running this team is a disaster.

There was an article this morning about how bad the Mystics and i assure you...its not a coincidence. Ted is clueless on how to run basketball teams

If BLo gets a 4/61 deal (which he did) and that's indicative of the market for average centers, then the trade might not be disasterous, but it was still foolish.

What's the new salary floor? Would NOH be able to meet it with the contracts of Anderson/Gordon/Davis and the misc young guys they have? It wouldn't make sense for them to amnesty somebody just to sign somebody else.

Dat2U wrote:Nate33 wrote:

I don't really see a need to make a Part II so I won't do so. If somebody else wants to start a second thread to continue to look at wouldda shouldda couldda's, I won't stop them.

I felt like being an a**hole so here's part deux.

Not so much. As soon as one of them is injured, looks like they are in serious decline, appears to be be blocking the development of other players on the roster, or finds no takers at the trade deadline, this thread will seem the ideal place to discuss how that situation came to be. Hopefully none of that happens, but...gotta be ready for any contingency, right?

Dat2U wrote:I felt like being an a**hole so here's part deux.

What were the chances the Hornets would have amnestied Okafor or Ariza this off-season if they didn't find a buyer (er, sucker) in Ernie?

Dat, aren't you the guy who just a few days ago vowed that you weren't going to relive the Okafor/Ariza trade argument? I'm disappointed. I took you at your word.

In the moves I liked better than doing this trade, Brand claimed in amnesty bid for a mere $2.1 million. The Wizards would lose the MLE(or more accurately 1/2 of it), but he should be a real bargain for the Mavs this season. If the amnesty market is this low, I might have said that Scola and Brand could fit in the $5 million or so of cap space the Wizards could have created by buying out Rashard Lewis.

It's been a little while since the deal happened, and I'm still just as against it now as I was then. I know lots of people have started coming around on it, and I often do that too on bad moves, but I'm just really not feeling it at all this time. Here's to hoping I'm proven wrong.

MJG wrote:It's been a little while since the deal happened, and I'm still just as against it now as I was then. I know lots of people have started coming around on it, and I often do that too on bad moves, but I'm just really not feeling it at all this time. Here's to hoping I'm proven wrong.

I have 4 serious issues with the trade:

1) Kills immediate cap flexibility. I would have preferred to be able to make BOYD-type deals to acquire more talent (i.e. the Hinrich maneuver) than trading for Ariza/Okafor. Now, those types of deals can't happen.

2) Changes the whole dynamic of the team. I loved how Nene played as the starting center, with Seraphin backing him up. I thought Nene gave us a skill and footspeed advantage over opposing centers, and his ability to face up and hit that 16 footer was also a big plus because he could spread the floor a bit. Now that advantage is gone because Nene will be moved to PF, where that advantage gets neutralized.

3) Diminishes the playing time of our younger guys—Booker, Ves, and Seraphin—who are all better than Okafor IMHO. It also means they don't resign James Singleton, who I'm a big fan off. I would have rather seen the team put some faith in their young players than trading for a mediocre big who misses foul shots, and has a limited offensive game.

4) WYSIWYG. Even if the team makes the playoffs as the 7 or 8 seed, it doesn't matter because the team won't be able to do much to improve the roster for the next few seasons. Hopefully, Wall and/or Beal become superstars, because as of now we don't have one guy capable of averaging 20 a game.

Okafor for $13.5 million, or Brand for $2.1?

closg00 wrote:Okafor for $13.5 million, or Brand for $2.1?

Cuban b skoolin, my friend.

TGW wrote:

MJG wrote:It's been a little while since the deal happened, and I'm still just as against it now as I was then. I know lots of people have started coming around on it, and I often do that too on bad moves, but I'm just really not feeling it at all this time. Here's to hoping I'm proven wrong.

I have 4 serious issues with the trade:

1) Kills immediate cap flexibility. I would have preferred to be able to make BOYD-type deals to acquire more talent (i.e. the Hinrich maneuver) than trading for Ariza/Okafor. Now, those types of deals can't happen.

2) Changes the whole dynamic of the team. I loved how Nene played as the starting center, with Seraphin backing him up. I thought Nene gave us a skill and footspeed advantage over opposing centers, and his ability to face up and hit that 16 footer was also a big plus because he could spread the floor a bit. Now that advantage is gone because Nene will be moved to PF, where that advantage gets neutralized.

3) Diminishes the playing time of our younger guys—Booker, Ves, and Seraphin—who are all better than Okafor IMHO. It also means they don't resign James Singleton, who I'm a big fan off. I would have rather seen the team put some faith in their young players than trading for a mediocre big who misses foul shots, and has a limited offensive game.

4) WYSIWYG. Even if the team makes the playoffs as the 7 or 8 seed, it doesn't matter because the team won't be able to do much to improve the roster for the next few seasons. Hopefully, Wall and/or Beal become superstars, because as of now we don't have one guy capable of averaging 20 a game.

A lot of times I emote or put a little too much alarmism in my posts to state with clarity why I am alarmed. What you did here, TGW, is explain why the deal was not an optimal deal. And since you said it your way, I will say it mine.

Ted didn't want to pay a guy to go away and he tried to get SOMETHING rather than nothing. Okafor and Ariza have been a part of championship teams and they are (more Okafor) good, character guys who happen to be veterans. Ernie did what the owner wants and he also did what he does, look out for himself. Two years on his deal he brought in veterans, because the adage is you win with veterans. The hope is they'll add stability, maturity, discipline, and aid in practice as well as raise the talent level. Best case, Wittman has more talented players to choose from and more disparate tools in his coaching tool kit to call on to help the Wizards win.

The owner added components without any regard to the four things you listed, IMO, TGW. I hope WYSIWYG does not hold to form. Those guys need to revert to their top form. Nene needs to click with Okafor at PF and C. Ariza needs to play like Laker Ariza, because there's no way Chris Singleton is a good SF right now. No way. Most of all, the chemistry of young guys who won't play as much with new guys who automatically start, and Wittman with a contract has to work well.

I like that the Wizards have added Newman and Hopla to help the mix of players, because Ariza needs that shot to drop and so does Wall. The good cop (Newman) is going to have to keep developing players encouraged. Okafor and Ariza better be team guys who don't mine riding pine at times.

HERE IS MY HOPE, TGW: That they DO make the playoffs and that they make Okafor and/or Nene HOT commodities. A trade can change this team in a hurry and those guys make enough money to exchange for a stud SF. If the Wizards can get good, they will be able to move one or both. Nene must stay healthy and so must Okafor.

EG hasn't done anything with this deal that's not reversible, I don't think. The deal MIGHT work out.

This deal is like paying too much for a used car. If it turns out to be reliable and not a lemon, who cares if you could have got the car for half of what you paid?

--If Okafor can get healthy, stay healthy, defend, rebound, and be a team player he'll be a decent pickup.
--If Ariza can defend, hit the three with proficiency since he won't have to create, and if he can demonstrate his fine passing skills, he is also an asset.
--If Randy runs the team on a meritocracy and the best players play, and he is a respected coach, he will maximize the win potential of this team regardless of Okafor and Ariza. If they both stink he will play guys who get it done. So, the deal won't HURT what the Wizards had going if Randy coaches them up. REMEMBER: Both guys come off the books in 2 years. If Randy coaches them up the deal won't matter.
--Last, maybe just maybe everything comes together despite the cost of this deal.

This deal cost too much but that doesn't mean the team won't be better off. Just like a very expensive used car if it holds up you will forget what you paid.

The Haywood amnesty claim sure like an attractive alternative to the trade. I imagine the claim would have been a fair bit higher with us bidding against the Bobs, but it probably wouldn't have gone higher than $4 million a year.

That combined with overpaying for Brandon Rush likely would have been my favorite offseason. Rush probably would have gotten expensive to make Golden State not match, but he's flexible in that he can play two positions. If not him, someone else - we could have even taken Ariza for free, if not Brandon Wright for a future second.

However, I don't like the counter points that suggest we should have continued on with the BOYDs in an effort to utilize cap-space to maximize future assets. BOYDs were like, so last year, Dad. There is a very good chance that those assets turn out to be marginal and that needs to be weighed against degrading the talent around Wall in the short term yet again. You're gonna poison the aquifer if you keep dipping the BOYD bucket into the well. I'll be a big fan of BOYD's.....when we next rebuild.

It also appears to me that market dynamics are degrading the value of cap space and it's assets that get deals done more than cap as assets are in shorter supply than space (need to see Storyteller's cap site once the dust settles, but that still seems to be the case). I would not have gone with a "maintain max space in 2014" strategy as it's a willow-wisp more than like. Some cap space to absorb a contract that summer, OK, but using max cap space to somehow get a max player who deserves that money is a real long shot.

So, I like the basic idea of bringing in win-now vets as place holders, but I think we hit on an overly expensive version of that general philosophy. The saving grace of the trade is the short time horizon on the contracts: two years. This offers some flexibility if we're willing to make a move.

Don't like it, but I'm not flinging dung from my cage either.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:This deal is like paying too much for a used car. If it turns out to be reliable and not a lemon, who cares if you could have got the car for half of what you paid?

--If Okafor can get healthy, stay healthy, defend, rebound, and be a team player he'll be a decent pickup.
--If Ariza can defend, hit the three with proficiency since he won't have to create, and if he can demonstrate his fine passing skills, he is also an asset.
--If Randy runs the team on a meritocracy and the best players play, and he is a respected coach, he will maximize the win potential of this team regardless of Okafor and Ariza. If they both stink he will play guys who get it done. So, the deal won't HURT what the Wizards had going if Randy coaches them up. REMEMBER: Both guys come off the books in 2 years. If Randy coaches them up the deal won't matter.
--Last, maybe just maybe everything comes together despite the cost of this deal.

This deal cost too much but that doesn't mean the team won't be better off. Just like a very expensive used car if it holds up you will forget what you paid.

CJJ. Go for a good run. You are overly complaining about things you don't know and you are all over the place. Chill brother. Wait and see how things work out. No reason to see the glass half full. Life is to short for that.

Hope for the best. If the worst comes, you can deal with it when it happens. Nothing is to be gained by living through it longer then needed or to live through it if it never happens.

^
Yeah. George Bush is water under the bridge and Mitt Romney hasn't happened yet. Whoops! Right thread.

hands, you and monte are killing me.

monte, I started to post about Mitt in the Politics thread, but decided I really didn't want to go there. His election feels inevitable, just like Wizards futility under Ernie Grunfeld, death, and taxes. I have consoled myself remembering the Reagan years. I remember when DC folks were saying Ronny was the antichrist, mentioning 6-6-6, and they thought, "Star Wars," the Reagan Administration's proposed Strategic Defense Initiative, would be the death of mankind. We're still alive 30 years later.

With respect to Mitt, I have resolved to support my country's leadership. Even if they take us from the frying pan straight to the fire! Even if they make this country more of a class system than the castes of India. Even if the rich get richer as many people will need to find a squeegee so we can run up on cars as they stop in traffic. (I kid. We'll make it under Mitt and maybe he will not screw it up big time.)

Okay, that's enough. I'm off to the gym, literally, hands.