Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[GhostsOfGil]

Judging from the pre-season prediction threads we have every year, do us posters generally underestimate the wins the Wiz get or overestimate them... by a lot?

IIRC this forum is usually over optimistic about our win predictions. Even during the Gil era, there was talk about us being "dark horse contenders."

And have we learned anything from that? I don't think so.

but this year we added AJ PRICE

[Ruzious]

That's AJFP.

[LyricalRico]

Judging from the pre-season prediction threads we have every year, do us posters generally underestimate the wins the Wiz get or overestimate them... by a lot?

IIRC this forum is usually over optimistic about our win predictions. Even during the Gil era, there was talk about us being "dark horse contenders."

And have we learned anything from that? I don't think so.

But this time is different!



Seriously, though, the #8 seed in the East last year (Philly) had a .530 winning percentage. That comes out to between 43-44 wins in a normal 82 game season. Considering that 4 of the 8 playoff teams in the East got worse IMO (CHI not having Rose, PHI going younger, ATL dumping salary, ORL losing Anderson and having the Howard saga), and with NJ as the only non-playoff team that put themselves squarely in the playoff picture - I think that we could go back to the days of a hotly contested 8th seed in the East going to a 38-40 win team.

Nate has mentioned in a few places that the numbers post-Nene say we're essentially adding Okafor, Ariza, Beal, and fully healthy versions of Nene/Booker to about a 32 win team. Even if you doubt some of the late season wins, those additions IMO should solidify as that type of team at a minimum. Contemplate the potential progress of high ceiling guys like Wall, Seraphin, and Vesely, and I think you can get into the mid-high-30's-in-wins discussion. And if the East breaks like I think it will, then that means it's also potentially a playoffs discussion.

[Ruzious]

Rico, mid to high 30's wins... ain't good enough. It's pathetic to have that as a goal at this point.

[LyricalRico]

Rico, mid to high 30's wins... ain't good enough. It's pathetic to have that as a goal at this point.

And this is a divide that it looks like we aren't going to bridge. I can't agree that going from the 2nd worst record in the league to nearly .500 the very next season is in any way a "pathetic" goal. I see it as the logical step forward, and a step that cannot be skipped. Let the team get to that point and then we can talk about how to take the next step.

Of course we're going off into something probably better suited for the various Ernie/Ted threads, so I'll get back to working on my predictions. Go Wiz!

[closg00]

This depth chart that makes me want to be very conservative with my win estimates. I am leaning towards Consiglieri's view on our win total, especially if Nene becomes a part-time player. Not enough scoring either.
http://espn.go.com/nba/team/depth/_/nam ... on-wizards

[miller31time]

First nba.com power rankings are out....

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/powerranki ... ef:nbahpt1

Wizards are 27th.

[Nivek]

First nba.com power rankings are out....

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/powerranki ... ef:nbahpt1

Wizards are 27th.

If they hadn't made that trade for Okafor/Ariza, they'd be a lot lower. Maybe 29th.

[BarnabyJones]

1. Miami
2. Indiana
3. Boston
4. New Jersey
5. New York
6. Washington
7. Chicago
8. Atlanta


9. Milwaukee
10. Toronto
11. Orlando
12. Philly
13. Cleveland
14. Detroit
15. Charlotte

[BarnabyJones]

First nba.com power rankings are out....

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/powerranki ... ef:nbahpt1

Wizards are 27th.

What a joke.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

First nba.com power rankings are out....

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/powerranki ... ef:nbahpt1

Wizards are 27th.

Washington (20-46)
Pace: 95.1 (7), Off: 97.8 (28), Def: 103.8 (24)
John Wall may be the player to watch in the East this season. No, the Wizards probably aren't a playoff team either way, but a significant improvement from Wall could change the Wizards' outlook. Not only must he improve his jumper and his defense, but he's got to make his teammates better.

Before he was drafted I said Wall is overrated.

If I were GM of the Wizards I would give Wall all of preseason and the first 5 games before making a long-term decision on his future. If his jumper doesn't look markedly improved from day one, I would canvas the entire NBA and make the best trade possible. All the people who say he's a superstar are tripping on acid as far as I am concerned.

Do his stats look somewhat like Westbrooks' first two seasons? Yes they do! Does he have al the tools to be a good defender? Yes, he does! Is he really fast and an elite passer in a full court game? No doubt, yes he is. Does he execute well in half court? No. Is he good relative to every other PG in the league? Rondo, Paul, Rose, Deron Williams, Westbrooks, Nash, are clearly much better. Of his peers, John Wall doesn't dominate Rubio, Lawson,Jennings, Irving, Holiday, Isaiah Thomas, Darren Collison. Matter of fact, I've seen each of those guys and Jose Calderon get the better of John Wall. Among that second tier of players John Wall MIGHT be above average. A few guys give Jeremy Lin a lot of trouble, but John Wall makes Lin look like an All Star. Guys like Mario Chalmers at least play consistently good defense. John Wall doesn't do that yet.

If I could get Iguodala for Ariza/Okafor, along with Holiday plus a couple draft picks; I would trade Wall once it becomes clear he can't shoot and has not made the leap.

[Zonkerbl]

If healthy, this team could contend for the playoffs.

Thing is, WHEN HAVE THEY EVER BEEN HEALTHY?

Last season was the first in my memory where we didn't lose at least two starters to injury for significant portions of the year. Maybe I'm making that up. Thing is, I have a pretty strong feeling that we just traded for $45 million worth of doctor's visits the next two seasons. Maybe I'm a pessimist.

Nene and Booker both go down for the year with plantar fasciitis problems and Okafor messes up his back.

Wall, Beal, Ariza, Jan and KS -- Best case scenario: Wall starts hitting mid range jumpers and playing defense, Beal suddenly starts shooting the three like he did during the tournament, KS and Jan both pick up where they left off at the end of the season, but who plays backup center? 30 wins.

Worst case scenario: Wall still can't defend or shoot, Beal shoots 33% from the three, KS and Jan both regress. 20 wins.

[TGW]

If I were GM of the Wizards I would give Wall all of preseason and the first 5 games before making a long-term decision on his future.

Oh really? Would you do the same if Fatboy Cousins is looking like crap after 5 games? My guess is that you wouldn't. As a matter of fact, I'm sure you'd come up with a bunch of excuses for it like you did last season when Cousins looked like crap.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If I were GM of the Wizards I would give Wall all of preseason and the first 5 games before making a long-term decision on his future.

Oh really? Would you do the same if Fatboy Cousins is looking like crap after 5 games? My guess is that you wouldn't. As a matter of fact, I'm sure you'd come up with a bunch of excuses for it like you did last season when Cousins looked like crap.

Considering Fatboy can do one thing better than almost anyone in the NBA I would know he's already better than Wall, no matter how I proceed.

Cousins is an elite rebounder. If you don't believe me, look at the number 1 in the NBA on the link below.

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/demarcus_ ... stats.html

Demarcus was #6 in double doubles, besides being #1 in offensive rebounds both on the season and per game. He also ranked in blocks, steals, and efficiency, TGW. Fat boy had a 41 point game. He had two 20 rebound games. I remember folks saying they wouldn't draft him and that he'd be a bust.

In fairness, Wall has some impressive stats in assists, steals, free throws, and efficiency (though that not as high as Cousins). Wall has had a 38 point game and his fair share of double doubles (but not as many as Cousins). John owns turnovers, but Demarcus is up there, too. Cousins owns fouls. Both are talented, young players who need to refine their games.

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/john_wall ... stats.html

TGW, I would trade either player if it would make my team better.

[dobrojim]

you should always trade if it makes your team better

caveat - don't flush your future for immediate gain

but Al Davis was right, Just win Baby.

[miller31time]

First nba.com power rankings are out....

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/powerranki ... ef:nbahpt1

Wizards are 27th.

If they hadn't made that trade for Okafor/Ariza, they'd be a lot lower. Maybe 29th.

Simple-minded Nivek.

We've done the hard part - build the foundation of the team. Now comes the easy part - adding two elite stars to take us to that next level.

[Nivek]

First nba.com power rankings are out....

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/powerranki ... ef:nbahpt1

Wizards are 27th.

If they hadn't made that trade for Okafor/Ariza, they'd be a lot lower. Maybe 29th.

Simple-minded Nivek.

We've done the hard part - build the foundation of the team. Now comes the easy part - adding two elite stars to take us to that next level.

Ah, that explains the Wizards interest in Josh Childress then.

[Kanyewest]

If healthy, this team could contend for the playoffs.

Thing is, WHEN HAVE THEY EVER BEEN HEALTHY?

Last season was the first in my memory where we didn't lose at least two starters to injury for significant portions of the year. Maybe I'm making that up. Thing is, I have a pretty strong feeling that we just traded for $45 million worth of doctor's visits the next two seasons. Maybe I'm a pessimist.

Nene and Booker both go down for the year with plantar fasciitis problems and Okafor messes up his back.

Wall, Beal, Ariza, Jan and KS -- Best case scenario: Wall starts hitting mid range jumpers and playing defense, Beal suddenly starts shooting the three like he did during the tournament, KS and Jan both pick up where they left off at the end of the season, but who plays backup center? 30 wins.

Worst case scenario: Wall still can't defend or shoot, Beal shoots 33% from the three, KS and Jan both regress. 20 wins.

Worst case scenario is John Wall gets injured. I agree that the Wizards could get in trouble if a key player suffers injury but the reality is they will only be a successful team only when Wall improves his jump shot and decision making especially in crunch time.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

you should always trade if it makes your team better

caveat - don't flush your future for immediate gain

but Al Davis was right, Just win Baby.

Exactly.

As far as trading Wall, I would never do it unless I got back a young PG and several assets, one of which would need to be an all star-caliber player. I would hope to leverage perceived worth into a whole lot more than actual worth.

For instance, last draft on draft day I would have acquired the rights to Kryie Irving plus at least one good player and a pick; or two future first round picks in exchange for John Wall. That along with drafting Leonard and Faried (or Faried and Brooks) that draft would have the Wizards looking great in the future.

People who think the Wizards can't attract FAs and that they're on the right track need to realize they're on a track, but not the fast track as they could be.

[willbcocks]

All the people who say he's a superstar are tripping on acid as far as I am concerned.

This is like saying that all the people who breathe fire and have wings are dragons. Or are the people who are filled with straw and impaled on a stake in the middle of a cornfield are strawmen.

Absolutely no one is saying that Wall is a superstar. Complete fabrication and strawman.